All newcomers were leaked along Little Mac, Pac Man and the Miis

[SmashChu]

Side note, I don't understand what the bug up the skeptics' arses is about Villager not specifically being referred to as Villager when 'Animal Crossing Boy' is about as close a description of him as you can get,

If he had inside information, he would have gotten the name right.

He never knew anything. People believe this also don't believe in coincidences. The rumor exist only on the notion that he HAD to know something. When leaks happen, they know specific information that would be hard to just guess, and no, characters don't count. One Brawl leaker stated there was a Dragoon item and described how it worked. When the item was unveiled and it was just how he stated, it proved him right. This guy didn't have any information besides character names, one of which he got wrong. So there is no information that is specific/. It's just as likely that he guessed. This is further supported when you consider the fact that he never announced he had insider information until after WFT was shown. Before then, he made a forum post that said "My unlikely prediction." Leakers show their information before it is revealed. Given, it's already been proven wrong with no E3 reveals. You don't just get something like this wrong. It's a pretty big fact. So he already isn't right on quite a bit. This is only believed because "There is just no way he could have guessed it." With thousands of people making rosters and guessing characters, someone had to get something write. Even still, he's only 50/50.

 

[BKupa666]

If he had inside information, he would have gotten the name right.

He never knew anything. People believe this also don't believe in coincidences. The rumor exist only on the notion that he HAD to know something. When leaks happen, they know specific information that would be hard to just guess, and no, characters don't count. One Brawl leaker stated there was a Dragoon item and described how it worked. When the item was unveiled and it was just how he stated, it proved him right. This guy didn't have any information besides character names, one of which he got wrong. So there is no information that is specific/. It's just as likely that he guessed. This is further supported when you consider the fact that he never announced he had insider information until after WFT was shown. Before then, he made a forum post that said "My unlikely prediction." Leakers show their information before it is revealed. Given, it's already been proven wrong with no E3 reveals. You don't just get something like this wrong. It's a pretty big fact. So he already isn't right on quite a bit. This is only believed because "There is just no way he could have guessed it." With thousands of people making rosters and guessing characters, someone had to get something write. Even still, he's only 50/50.

I addressed reasons he could have missed the name later in my earlier post, and others addressed why only his correct 50 percent could have been revealed when they were or the only legitimate half. All leaks don't have to correspond to preconceived guidelines about how leaks should be conducted; this guy in particular claimed he deviated from the normal 'procedure' as a way to back himself up before the reveal, not knowing that the people adamant about denying the leak would do so no matter what approach he took. Maybe, if any future leaker observes what has gone down with this leak, they'll return to the normal procedure after having realized that they're in for a firestorm of straw-grasped arguments no matter what, especially if their leak features Pac-Man.

The chance anyone could have guessed WFT as even an unlikely prediction was astronomically low because no one ever did beforehand. This is a fundamental pillar in support of the leak, and it's one that not one denier has produced a shred of evidence against in the months this leak has existed. They just sit back and claim "people talked about her" without providing any proof, and to be frank, they'll never provide that proof because, deep down, they're aware it doesn't exist, they just hope no one who believes the leak will call them on it. I've done my research, found exactly one joke thread from 2008, and nothing else, and now, I'm doing that calling. Until anyone in opposition to the leak finds substantive evidence that WFT was a guessable character rather than claiming "it's equally likely he guessed such a character," I have nothing more to discuss, because it's clear that neither does anyone else.

 

[mimgrim]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Sonic_video_games

39 games on Nintendo consoles. Only fifteen of those are Nintendo exclusive and notable titles (such as Sonic CD and Sonic Generations) completely skipped over Nintendo.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Metal_Gear_media

Only 5 games on Nintendo consoles, four of which are console exclusive.

Yeah, number of games on Nintendo systems is not a good argument here. Sorry, mate.

You don't give numbers enough credit. You also conveniently forgot to mention that Snake wasn't put into SSB because of ties to Nintendo but because Sakurai's friend who is the creator of Snake asked for it. Of course none of the of the 3rd part characters are put in for their ties to Nintendo but popularity or special cases. But still just using Snake in your example makes your point moot since Snake has very little ties to Nintendo. And Sonic still has more games then Pac-Man.

Namco and Nintendo work together frequently, and they have a deep rooted history. Namco is making Smash Bros along side Nintendo. Pac-Man and Mario have already been in a game together. Cool, Megaman has game numbers. But that's because Megaman has 800000 games. BOTH Pac-Man and Megaman have strong ties to Nintendo, and trying to say one has more over the other is just silly because there is no real way to measure it. I'd still put my money on Pacs.

And this isn't coming from a PM fan. I'm a fan of neither characters.

And I don't care if you think I make an *** out of myself. This is a ****ing forum about a game that hasn't come out yet. Everyone here makes an *** out of themselves simply by logging on and jerking off over a bunch of bull****.

I didn't say you made and a** out of yourself, I said you pulled stuff out of your a**. There is a difference you know.

Pac-Man has more ties to the arcade era then he does to Nintendo. That game he appeared by Maro? well guess what it was an arcade game. Also we aren't talking about the company that made Pac-Man but rather Pac-Man himself, if we were arguing that Namco and Capcom both had strong ties to Nintendo then I would agree that it would be pointless to say one has more then another but alas we are arguing specific characters and not the companies themselves. Mega Man also only has 129 games as of Dec 2012, so you over exaggerated a lot there. Let's not also forget that when people think of the SNES one of the first games to come to mind is Mega Man right up there with the likes of Mario, Metroid, and LoZ which says something. Sorry but it is completely justifiable to say Mega Man has more ties to Nintendo the Pac-Man.

 

[Shorts]

Oh god. Okay, you win. I hope that made your night.

 

[Jumpman84]

You don't give numbers enough credit. You also conveniently forgot to mention that Snake wasn't put into SSB because of ties to Nintendo but because Sakurai's friend who is the creator of Snake asked for it. Of course none of the of the 3rd part characters are put in for their ties to Nintendo but popularity or special cases. But still just using Snake in your example makes your point moot since Snake has very little ties to Nintendo. And Sonic still has more games then Pac-Man.

My point is that number of games don't matter, which you were implying they did. This is supported by the fact that Snake is in, despite is iffy connections to Nintendo. But he does make sense as a modern era rival to Mario, as do Sonic and Mega Man for the 16bit wars and the NES, respectively. If Sakurai decided that he wanted an arcade era rival, the only iconic choices would be the Pong paddle, a Space Invader, and Pac-Man. As epic and WTF those first two choices would be, Pac-Man makes the most sense, as Namco's ties with Nintendo are greater than Taito's or Atari's.

NF Magazine even discusses Pac-Man as a very likely choice for Smash 4. If Namco was to get a character, undeniably Pac-Man would be it, as his ties to Nintendo are stronger than any other Namco franchise. That's of course assuming Namco gets a character, which is up in the air. Sakurai could choose any other third party or even Bandai. Digimon Trainer for Smash!

Of course, nothing here actually disproves the rumor of Pac-Man being playable. Pac-Man could still get in. Just not because of any special treatment given to Namco. And it's a bit ridiculous for people to say that WFT was talked about when Sakurai himself confirmed that no one requested her. So not only are these people being mean to the folks that would like Little Mac, Mii, and Pac-Man in Smash, they're blatantly lying to do it. Have you guys no shame?

 

[Prince Longstrok]

I hope the Mii makes it in, but as an Assist trophy or some other non-playable format.

The development time and such needed for a customizable character like that would be wasted for a rather uninteresting character. A Mii has about the same chance as it did back in Brawl.

 

[BluePikmin11]

But Sakurai wants to take the time to do the customizability he promised we were going to have, he has plenty of time to do it.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

The chance anyone could have guessed WFT as even an unlikely prediction was astronomically low because no one ever did beforehand. This is a fundamental pillar in support of the leak, and it's one that not one denier has produced a shred of evidence against in the months this leak has existed. They just sit back and claim "people talked about her" without providing any proof, and to be frank, they'll never provide that proof because, deep down, they're aware it doesn't exist, they just hope no one who believes the leak will call them on it. I've done my research, found exactly one joke thread from 2008, and nothing else, and now, I'm doing that calling. Until anyone in opposition to the leak finds substantive evidence that WFT was a guessable character rather than claiming "it's equally likely he guessed such a character," I have nothing more to discuss, because it's clear that neither does anyone else.

Not only this, but you gotta take into account that the guy would have guessed the other two newcomers as well. In what twisted universe is anyone so lucky that they not only guess a character that nobody else talks about, but also guesses the other two characters? Sure everyone included Mega Man on their lists, but any AC character was also severely doubted. Furthermore, there's such a big array of characters to have guessed from, having guessed the other two correctly while being the only guy on earth to guess Wii Fit Trainer is just not possible. It's just not a coincidence, nobody guesses something like that.

Either he intentionally faked the other half of the list for whatever reason, or Little Mac, Mii and Pac-Man are waiting to be revealed, these are the only two realistic options I see. Saying that it was a lucky guess is just desperate denial, because it wasn't. Mind you I don't even want Mii and Pac-Man, and Little Mac doesn't need the leak to make it in, but most signs point to it being true, and I like being realistic before being delusional.

This is further supported when you consider the fact that he never announced he had insider information until after WFT was shown. Before then, he made a forum post that said "My unlikely prediction." Leakers show their information before it is revealed. Given, it's already been proven wrong with no E3 reveals. You don't just get something like this wrong. It's a pretty big fact. So he already isn't right on quite a bit. This is only believed because "There is just no way he could have guessed it." With thousands of people making rosters and guessing characters, someone had to get something write. Even still, he's only 50/50.

Actually, the guy who made the forum post, and later wrote an article on his gaming news-site explaining the situation, was told the information by an anonymous e-mail from a reader of his site. He doesn't know anything himself, but the guy who contacted him knew in advance. He posted the supposedly leaked characters as guesses on the forum just for the heck of it he says. The dude is apparently held at high esteem over on NeoGAF, where he posted his "guess", and does run his own news-site, so he probably wouldn't fake the whole situation himself and run the risk of losing his reputation. In that case, since the guy who gave us the information wasn't the one who got the information directly, and he never claimed he did have insider information either, he just said what an e-mail told him, nothing else. It's also worth noting that the NeoGAF guy might have skewed some word too, like animal crossing guy, but the point still remains the same.

 

[mimgrim]

My point is that number of games don't matter, which you were implying they did. This is supported by the fact that Snake is in, despite is iffy connections to Nintendo. But he does make sense as a modern era rival to Mario, as do Sonic and Mega Man for the 16bit wars and the NES, respectively. If Sakurai decided that he wanted an arcade era rival, the only iconic choices would be the Pong paddle, a Space Invader, and Pac-Man. As epic and WTF those first two choices would be, Pac-Man makes the most sense, as Namco's ties with Nintendo are greater than Taito's or Atari's.

NF Magazine even discusses Pac-Man as a very likely choice for Smash 4. If Namco was to get a character, undeniably Pac-Man would be it, as his ties to Nintendo are stronger than any other Namco franchise. That's of course assuming Namco gets a character, which is up in the air. Sakurai could choose any other third party or even Bandai. Digimon Trainer for Smash!

Of course, nothing here actually disproves the rumor of Pac-Man being playable. Pac-Man could still get in. Just not because of any special treatment given to Namco. And it's a bit ridiculous for people to say that WFT was talked about when Sakurai himself confirmed that no one requested her. So not only are these people being mean to the folks that would like Little Mac, Mii, and Pac-Man in Smash, they're blatantly lying to do it. Have you guys no shame?

The main thing is, 3rd parties don't get put in if they are a smart choice or not. They get in as special cases, either massive popularity, like Sonic and Mega Man, or favors to a friend, Snake. Sonic and Mega Man weren't put in for their relation to Mario but more so due to their massive popularity and requests. Pac-Man doesn't have the popularity of Mega Man or Sonic at this, no matter how you try to spin it it is still the truth that Pac Man just doesn't have the popularity. The only chance he has is if a friend of Sakurai's who works at Namco asks for him, but a Tales has a better chance of this due to the fact that the creator of Tales has actually said he would like to see Tales character in Smash. I'mnot saying this to hate on you, I have nothing against you or Pac Man it is just the simple truth that Pac Man's chances are actually slim and the only hope is if this rumor is true and he was just taken out of the E3 reveal with Mac and Mii, which I find unlikely.

 

[Fenrir VII]

Not only this, but you gotta take into account that the guy would have guessed the other two newcomers as well. In what twisted universe is anyone so lucky that they not only guess a character that nobody else talks about, but also guesses the other two characters? Sure everyone included Mega Man on their lists, but any AC character was also severely doubted. Furthermore, there's such a big array of characters to have guessed from, having guessed the other two correctly while being the only guy on earth to guess Wii Fit Trainer is just not possible. It's just not a coincidence, nobody guesses something like that.

Either he intentionally faked the other half of the list for whatever reason, or Little Mac, Mii and Pac-Man are waiting to be revealed, these are the only two realistic options I see. Saying that it was a lucky guess is just desperate denial, because it wasn't. Mind you I don't even want Mii and Pac-Man, and Little Mac doesn't need the leak to make it in, but most signs point to it being true, and I like being realistic before being delusional.

The only believability to this rumor is WFT, which I completely agree would be a heck of a guess...

But besides her, the poster got 2 characters out of 5 right, which are among the most obvious and guessed characters so far (for both Brawl and SSB4). The only universally-considered "safer" bet than the characters he guessed (again other than WFT) would be Chrom, from what I've seen. So what I'm basically saying is, if it were a guess, and he somehow got WFT right, the other two just kind of fell out in the shotgun guess of 6 pretty obvious characters (again, assuming "animal crossing guy" would have been considered right if Tom Nook were revealed).

Let me put it like this... if WFT were not revealed at e3, and Pac-man or Mii was instead, would anybody care about this leak? It might be mentioned in passing (purely because of who posted it), but >90% of the legitimacy of this leak is the left-field nature of WFT.

 

[SonicMario]

I hope the Mii makes it in, but as an Assist trophy or some other non-playable format.

The development time and such needed for a customizable character like that would be wasted for a rather uninteresting character. A Mii has about the same chance as it did back in Brawl.

Sakurai won't need to necessarily design for every single combination possible with the Mii. I believe Nintendo has the capability of a special code that allows them to just have the code for the parts and even when mixed up will still work like normal. Even if you have those weird Miis that have their mouth's or eyes off their body. I believe they'll be set up at the same time most Miis designs are like.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

The only believability to this rumor is WFT, which I completely agree would be a heck of a guess...

But besides her, the poster got 2 characters out of 5 right, which are among the most obvious and guessed characters so far (for both Brawl and SSB4). The only universally-considered "safer" bet than the characters he guessed (again other than WFT) would be Chrom, from what I've seen. So what I'm basically saying is, if it were a guess, and he somehow got WFT right, the other two just kind of fell out in the shotgun guess of 6 pretty obvious characters (again, assuming "animal crossing guy" would have been considered right if Tom Nook were revealed).

Let me put it like this... if WFT were not revealed at e3, and Pac-man or Mii was instead, would anybody care about this leak? It might be mentioned in passing (purely because of who posted it), but >90% of the legitimacy of this leak is the left-field nature of WFT.

Animal Crossing characters weren't guessed on very much either, because of Sakurai's comments, and even then he could have said Tom Nook instead. Plus, he's missing Palutena in place of Mii if he wanted to be super predictable. Besides Mega Man and Little Mac, the others could easily have been other characters, since neither Pac-Man or Mii were held up as having a big chance until the rumor came about. By then the easy thing would have been saying Mega Man, Little Mac, Palutena, Chrom and Ridley, maybe Takamaru too.

I do agree though that WFT is the one who makes the leak, but Villager and Mega Man being specifically mentioned alongside just adds to it.

 

[Fenrir VII]

Animal Crossing characters weren't guessed on very much either, because of Sakurai's comments, and even then he could have said Tom Nook instead. Plus, he's missing Palutena in place of Mii if he wanted to be super predictable. Besides Mega Man and Little Mac, the others could easily have been other characters, since neither Pac-Man or Mii were held up as having a big chance until the rumor came about. By then the easy thing would have been saying Mega Man, Little Mac, Palutena, Chrom and Ridley, maybe Takamaru too.

I do agree though that WFT is the one who makes the leak, but Villager and Mega Man being specifically mentioned alongside just adds to it.

Dude the Tom Nook threads were endless before and after Brawl... even after the Sakurai comments...

I'm listing "believability" as 2 things:
1. how natural/likely a character would actually make it into the game
2. how many posts/requests there have been on various forums (because they've been guessed countless times, so a 'leak' with them doesn't seem like a huge stretch)

So let's break it down:

-WFT: crazy guess if it is.

-Megaman: This one floored me, because I didn't think he'd make it in, but he's easily one of the most reasonable 3rd party chars to include, and he was on like everybody's wish list, even before brawl, so he was mentioned a LOT.

-'Animal crossing guy': My point is this name applies to Tom Nook as well (and we would have thought he was right if Nook were included instead of Villager). I didn't see too much talk about Villager, but Tom Nook threads have abounded, even after Sakurai's comments

-Pac-Man: has been speculated since it was revealed that Namco would work on the game... You have to admit that it would surprise like nobody (even if it angered some) for Namco to slide their mascot in.

-Mii: This one seems obvious because seriously name a console Nintendo party-style game that they HAVEN'T been forced into lately.. Also, they got a surprising amount of positive comments on Miiverse for some reason... but yeah.

-Little Mac: Again, highly requested, and seems obvious after the newer punch-out game

And like I said, the only character more likely than any of these (imo) is Chrom... I could see a case for Palutena, but I'm not sure if I'd say she's more likely or requested than any of these. She might be on equal footing with Little Mac for me...

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Actually, the leak called him Animal Crossing Boy, not guy, so it could pretty much only have referred to Villager. (EDIT: scratch that, it does say guy) I just find it unbelievable that someone wouldn't just guess WFT, but also the other two. Mega Man is a no brainer, because he was the most requested not-Mewtwo character, but I find it hard to believe that someone would get 3/3 right, especially the only guy who we know of that guessed WFT. And again, it wasn't the guy who posted it as a "guess" that had the info, he was told by someone else, but decided to post it as a guess for the heck of it, or maybe so he could have proof otherwise. I find it hard to believe that someone who owns a news-site and is apparently held at high esteem on NeoGAF would make a big fuzz out of a lucky guys, even then I find it hard to believe a video game newsreporter would luckily guess something as ridiculous as that. That'd be the biggest coincidence ever for someone with such a big voice to guess right on something like that, and then further risk his reputation by leading everyone astray. It just isn't a lucky guess.

 

[iam8bit]

Actually, the guy who made the forum post, and later wrote an article on his gaming news-site explaining the situation, was told the information by an anonymous e-mail from a reader of his site.

Please point me to this site, for I am nosey like that and want to read said article.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Please point me to this site, for I am nosey like that and want to read said article.

Will try and fetch it from the original thread where things went down, the guy even came here and commented. Give me some time

EDIT: Oh wait, it's in the OP post: http://gematsu.com/2013/06/wii-fit-trainer-joins-super-smash-bros

Doesn't say much besides what we and they know. They were simply told by an outside source. The quote of interest in the article goes like this:

"Last week, Gematsu was tipped off about Nintendo’s E3 character reveals for Super Smash Bros. But since we were unable to confirm the validity of our source, we refrained from posting the information. Of the six characters we were told would be revealed, three have been confirmed: Mega Man, Animal Crossing Villager, and Wii Fit Trainer. The three left remaining are Little Mac, Pac-Man, and your Mii."

Will try and see if I can find his comment on this site.

EDIT EDIT:

Here's the guy's quote on our forum, in this very thread actually:

Hi, guys. I see there's a lot of discussion here. So just to clarify some things.



To those who quoted and responded to this, if you read the link, you'd see it has nothing to do with any source of mine. The friend I mention linked me to the site in a Facebook message because he found it somewhere (probably reddit or N4G or something) and thought it was interesting. I wasn't "dead wrong" about anything because none of that is from me.

As for some people saying I published this information "after the fact," both the June 10 NeoGAF post and Gematsu article are from me. If you paid attention to the authors of both, you'd see they say 'salromano'. Also, my avatar on GAF is the (Mark Cernified) Gematsu mascot.

Anyway, getting to the actual reveals. As I said in my post on Gematsu, I don't know the legitimacy of the person who tipped me, which is why I held onto this information (it'd be unprofessional to publish something without verification) and posted it on NeoGAF as 'speculation'. I thought all the characters were pretty outlandish, to be honest. Especially Wii Fit Trainer girl. I wasn't even aware she was an actual character. But yeah, after she was confirmed, I figured I'd share the rest, which my source told me would appear at E3, barring impromptu change.

That said, it's possible their reveal dates got pushed back or something. I'd think 6 new character reveals are pretty heavy for a single expo.

I'm still inclined to believe the guy considering he was spot on about three of 'em (including the most unlikely). I don't know. But considering that boxing ring stage, Sakurai's talk about customization, and his seemingly interested back-and-forth with IGN about Pac-Man, it's hard to think otherwise.

If I hear anything further, I'll let you guys now. I'm out for now!

 

[iam8bit]

Excellent, so there's a lot more to the "leaker" saga than I originally thought...

Thanks for posting, Wariofan!

 

[BKupa666]

I think Wariofan summed everything up nicely, but Fenrir, I have to wonder, if your perception of Tom Nook is that "he was WIDELY requested" and "requests for him abounded," how do you describe characters who actually met those criteria before E3, like Ridley, K. Rool, or Mewtwo?

 

[MoonSnow]

My guess is when they saw the last 3 characters get leaked, they decided to push back the reveal date.

 

[SmashChu]

The chance anyone could have guessed WFT as even an unlikely prediction was astronomically low because no one ever did beforehand. This is a fundamental pillar in support of the leak, and it's one that not one denier has produced a shred of evidence against in the months this leak has existed. They just sit back and claim "people talked about her" without providing any proof, and to be frank, they'll never provide that proof because, deep down, they're aware it doesn't exist, they just hope no one who believes the leak will call them on it. I've done my research, found exactly one joke thread from 2008, and nothing else, and now, I'm doing that calling. Until anyone in opposition to the leak finds substantive evidence that WFT was a guessable character rather than claiming "it's equally likely he guessed such a character," I have nothing more to discuss, because it's clear that neither does anyone else.

I wanted to address the entire thing and put this to rest, so here is a good time to do it. I warn you, this will be long.

You mention that the main pillar of this leak is that is was unlikely for anyone to guess Wii Fit Trainer or the characters in general. As I mentioned before, the leak is built on the idea that it has to be more than just a coincidence and he had to know something. This is actually called the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy. Take a cowboy who shoots at a barn. He shoots randomly at the barn. He then looks at his gun shots and notices that they all cluster around one spot. He then draws a bullseye around one spot. This makes him look like he is a pretty good shot despite the fact he shot randomly. The fallacy is when you see randomness and mistake it for order and reason. And conclusion is drawn from that. This scenario is exactly the same. So everyone is on the same page, let me explain the situation. A poster on NeoGAF, before the game was announced said he had some "My unlikely predictions" and he listed "Little Mac, Pac-Man, Animal Crossing Guy, Mega Man, Wii Fit Trainer, Mii." Well, come the next day, three of these characters are revealed. He then post on his website that he had an inside source and that the other three would be revealed at E3. It should be noted that the website never said they had an inside source until after Wii Fit Trainer was revealed. What does this sound like. It sounds like drawing a bullseye around the gunshots. And everyone who believes it has taken the same approach. To go further with the fallacy, it can apply to situations where there is no relation but because some unrelated pattern, it seems like it's more than coincidence. You can find more about it here. I'll post an example from the article to further illustrate the fallacy.

Say you go on a date, and the other person reveals they drive the same kind of car you do. It’s a different color, but the same model. Well, that’s sort of neat, but nothing amazing. Let’s say later on you learn their mom’s name is the same as your mom’s, and your mothers have the same birthday. Hold on a second. That’s pretty cool. Maybe the hand of fate is pushing you toward the other person. Later still, you find out you both own the box set of Monty Python’s Flying Circus, and you both grew up loving Rescue Rangers. You both love pizza, but hate rutabagas. This is meant to be, you think. You are made for each other. But, take a step back. Now, take another. How many people in the world own that model of car? You are both about the same age, so your mothers are too, and their names were probably common in their time. Since you have similar backgrounds and grew up in the same decade, you probably share the same childhood TV shows. Everyone loves Monty Python. Everyone loves pizza. Many people hate rutabagas.

"But hold on Chu. What about the fact he got Wii Fit Trainer and Villager right." That's a good point, but remember this fallacy is about finding order where there is none. So consider this: Melee sold over 7 million copies and Brawl sold over 11 million copies. The highest traffic of the Smash Bros DOJO was over 7 millions uses (see here, since the site is now gone). So there are a lot of people talking about the game. This also means a lot of people are making roster predictions. Also, people don't just say one or two characters. They can be long list at times. So it's likely that, with only three characters announced, that someone would get a few of them. There is also the possibility of someone else out there got those three right too, "But Wii Fit Trainer. No one talked about her." That's not true. We know it was brought up at least once, so it's not outside the realm of possibilities. One thing to also consider is that it seems unlikely to who you are talking too. Many people here thought Villager couldn't happen because they thought Sakurai ruled those characters out. But to someone who didn't know that, it would seem plausible. Both Wii Fit and Animal Crossing are big series for Nintendo, so something from these games is very possible. Again, the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy is when you see order from randomness. So the leak seems like drawing a bullseye. You got some right, so the rest might be right too.

You mention that no one has brought any contradictory evidence for the leaks. By saying that, it's clear you haven't been paying attention. There is plenty of evidence to suggest it's baloney, so let me go over some of that with you.

It's important to look at this and compare it to other leaks. What makes this suspicious is the amount of info that was given. Consider ChaosZero's leak. You can find what he wrote here. What he did was mention something like the "Dragoon Parts." He described what the item did. Later one, this item was shown on the DOJO. His leak was proven right as he pointed to something that was in the game. Another one is NyaseNya. She predicted when Sonic would be announced and that the game was delayed. By proving this, it confirmed she was right. Admittedly, people still didn't believe it since both of those events were not specific. A leak for Marvel vs Capcom 3 revealed the characters include the mechanics for Phoenix. "But Chu. How is that any different then the leak we are talking about now." ChaosZero and others stated they knew something, gave a very specific example, and then when that was shown to be true, the rest came along with it. For the leak we are talking about, the poster made a prediction, and when some of it was right, he claimed he had a leak. ChaosZero hit a bullseye. Salromano drew a bullseye.

This is one reason I harp on the fact that I harp on Villager's name. Were Salromano have inside information about the characters wouldn't he know the characters name? Lets take this a step further. The others leakers had specific information which, when confirmed, confirmed that rest of it. Yet his information was very limited. So how would someone go about getting this kind of info. The leaks came from people who had access to the game, such as tester. This is why the leaks came towards the end. Right now, very few people know the roster. Most of those people would be in Japan and wouldn't care to give information to a western fan site, especially a small and forgettable one. So how did he get the info, or how did his source get it. Well, let's assume the person telling him this saw the trailer. If that was the case, how come he only knew the characters names? And even more so, how did he get one wrong and they are plastered across the screen. This person would have seen stages, attacks, and the like. So he would have known more than just characters names. He would have also had to see a lot as the characters were in three trailers, not one, and Megaman's showed off a ton of attacks. If the person was part of E3, then how woul;d he know about the other three characters. The decision to show the characters had to be made far in advance and by the time they were setting up E3 it would have been finalized what was shown there. If it was someone making the game, they would have known specific attacks for the characters and even more than someone who is working with E3. There is also, as I mentioned before, very few English speakers who would have information as the development is all in Japan. This is why I say that someone working on E3 would be likely, but even then, why do we not have more information. Especially if they wanted this information to be believable. Again, it's drawing the bullseye. On the same note, it's why the rumor was debunked when the characters weren't at E3. Again, he said the characters were all part of the E3 reveal. After they weren't shown, he made a post explaining himself. It sounds like he is trying to make sure no one notices the wet paint.

Before I wrap this up, let me talk a little about Pac-Man. People expect this character because Namco is making the game. But Namco is also making Wii Sports Club. So just because Namco is a making it doesn't mean Namco characters will be in. Sakurai has since confirmed this saying that Namco characters wont get in just because they are making the game. He stated further that in order to be added, it would have to be a special situation. You can see what he said here. Namco has asserted that they aren't getting involved with the character selection. The Tekken producer has held back as far as any characters. See here. On Tales characters, the Tales producer is taking the same route. It all points to Sakurai have his own say. So it's unlikely Pac-man ins't going to be pushed in just because. Even still, the characters suffers from a lack of interest and a lack of unique abilities that would separate him from the cast. Sakurai's comment was made soon after the Wii Fit Trainer reveal. And we know Salormano made the post before Sakurai's comment came out. Again, this supports that nothing was known before hand.

So let me wrap it up with this. The reason I never believed this was because Salromano didn't have "insider information" until after the characters were all shown. This seems very fishy at best. If something was known, why not just post it. This didn't stop people from ChaosZero who didn't think much of the info he got. But posting something after you're right is suspicious. Again, it goes back to the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy. The bullseye was drawn around the shots. Everything suggest that this was simple a guess and that everyone played the fallacy once the unlikely prediction was right. People beleive it because it's too unlikely to not be true. But random chase does not mean that two events are related. When other leakers made a statement, they backed it up. They gave specific information and when that was right, they proved they knew something. This is a situation where someone on;y said he knew something after it was right. This is like me running out on the streets saying I knew the winning lotto numbers before hand. I didn't know anything. I got to make the bullseye after I shot the target. Human minds naturally try to find patterns and make sense of something. But sometimes it's just randomness. That's what this "leak" really is.

 

[BKupa666]

I understand the need to consider the possibility that the Sharpshooter fallacy applies here so as to be comprehensive, and it's a neat way to classify that possibility, but I still see holes in regard to it being the case with this leak, the first and most major of which remains Wii Fit Trainer, his Dragoon equivalent. I don't make the jump between "one user made a 5-post joke thread about her in 2008 on GameFAQs" to "a recurring poster on NeoGAF selected her five years later while guessing six characters that were likely to be revealed so as to convince people they were leaked if any were right," and I consider it unfathomable that anyone could ignore the context surrounding her to the point where they can consider that a legitimate possibility, regardless of how many people speculated on Smash's E3 reveals before E3 (though I think the idea of the 7 million people who created DOJO traffic during the Sonic reveal week all sticking around for six years and being forum speculators highly laughable).

What if I say, right now, "The Excite Truck should be in the next Smash, agree or disagree (and the red truck > the green one)," then some guy on NeoGAF lists the Truck as a "prediction" alongside five other mostly reasonable characters five years from now, and three of them, including the Truck, are in the reveal? Would the Truck have been a guessable character? Or would people just claim that, because the Truck hails from games that sell, anyone could have guessed it? Because that's essentially what's the anti-leak crowd is insisting right now, and instead of receiving the evidence I asked for, I get the above reasoning instead...like Wii Fit's sales made WFT predictable to any of the Smash fanbase at all, even the one prankster, who didn't reference sales at all in his post.

The topics of the "archetypical leak" and why this leaker may not have followed it in regard to his process or the information he revealed (including 'Animal Crossing Guy') have already been discussed by myself and others in previous posts. I do feel the need to claim that, even had all of the archetypical leak criteria (a package of information with arbitrarily-determined detail being posted and elaborated upon beforehand) been met, the deniers would still deny, deny, deny, because that's what they do. Precedent supports this. ChaosZero's threads were continually deleted from GameFAQs because of denier mods claiming his information made him a troll. Nyasenya's thread was locked by a denier mod on SWF and she was run off the boards by deniers who claimed she could have guessed what she revealed. And let's not forget all of the incessant denier whining when the "disappointing" final rosters of both Melee and Brawl were ultimately leaked. I'm not judging this leak's validity based off of those past leaks' deniers having to eat crow, but it's insightful to me that, regardless of how archetypical a leak is, hordes of people will spew fire and do anything within their power to label it false, often masking rhetoric as logic in the process. I have no doubt that this same denier mentality is present with this leak, and will be present with every subsequent leak that enters the Smash speculation scene. How can it not be when it's such a base kneejerk reaction?

I also feel the need to claim that I'm not out-and-out stating that I believe the unrevealed half of the leak, only that it's a strong possibility, possibly negated by three throwaway characters being added to the legitimate ones so as to mask it within a reveal prediction thread were six character reveals were the norm. My statements to this point have been to destroy doubt that the revealed three characters were anything but a leak. They're not...There, the big bad Pac-Man's gone away and won't hurt anybody anymore by spitting in the face of their expectations for third parties.

 

[SmashChu]

I understand the need to consider the possibility that the Sharpshooter fallacy applies here so as to be comprehensive, and it's a neat way to classify that possibility, but I still see holes in regard to it being the case with this leak, the first and most major of which remains Wii Fit Trainer, his Dragoon equivalent. I don't make the jump between "one user made a 5-post joke thread about her in 2008 on GameFAQs" to "a recurring poster on NeoGAF selected her five years later while guessing six characters that were likely to be revealed so as to convince people they were leaked if any were right," and I consider it unfathomable that anyone could ignore the context surrounding her to the point where they can consider that a legitimate possibility, regardless of how many people speculated on Smash's E3 reveals before E3 (though I think the idea of the 7 million people who created DOJO traffic during the Sonic reveal week all sticking around for six years and being forum speculators highly laughable).

What if I say, right now, "The Excite Truck should be in the next Smash, agree or disagree (and the red truck > the green one)," then some guy on NeoGAF lists the Truck as a "prediction" alongside five other mostly reasonable characters five years from now, and three of them, including the Truck, are in the reveal? Would the Truck have been a guessable character? Or would people just claim that, because the Truck hails from games that sell, anyone could have guessed it? Because that's essentially what's the anti-leak crowd is insisting right now, and instead of receiving the evidence I asked for, I get the above reasoning instead...like Wii Fit's sales made WFT predictable to any of the Smash fanbase at all, even the one prankster, who didn't reference sales at all in his post.

The topics of the "archetypical leak" and why this leaker may not have followed it in regard to his process or the information he revealed (including 'Animal Crossing Guy') have already been discussed by myself and others in previous posts. I do feel the need to claim that, even had all of the archetypical leak criteria (a package of information with arbitrarily-determined detail being posted and elaborated upon beforehand) been met, the deniers would still deny, deny, deny, because that's what they do. Precedent supports this. ChaosZero's threads were continually deleted from GameFAQs because of denier mods claiming his information made him a troll. Nyasenya's thread was locked by a denier mod on SWF and she was run off the boards by deniers who claimed she could have guessed what she revealed. And let's not forget all of the incessant denier whining when the "disappointing" final rosters of both Melee and Brawl were ultimately leaked. I'm not judging this leak's validity based off of those past leaks' deniers having to eat crow, but it's insightful to me that, regardless of how archetypical a leak is, hordes of people will spew fire and do anything within their power to label it false, often masking rhetoric as logic in the process. I have no doubt that this same denier mentality is present with this leak, and will be present with every subsequent leak that enters the Smash speculation scene. How can it not be when it's such a base kneejerk reaction?

I also feel the need to claim that I'm not out-and-out stating that I believe the unrevealed half of the leak, only that it's a strong possibility, possibly negated by three throwaway characters being added to the legitimate ones so as to mask it within a reveal prediction thread were six character reveals were the norm. My statements to this point have been to destroy doubt that the revealed three characters were anything but a leak. They're not...There, the big bad Pac-Man's gone away and won't hurt anybody anymore by spitting in the face of their expectations for third parties.

Your trying to compare incomparable things. Let me quote myself.

But Chu. How is that any different then the leak we are talking about now." ChaosZero and others stated they knew something, gave a very specific example, and then when that was shown to be true, the rest came along with it. For the leak we are talking about, the poster made a prediction, and when some of it was right, he claimed he had a leak. ChaosZero hit a bullseye. Salromano drew a bullseye.

Again, leakers like ChaosZero stated they had information and gave some specific items that, when shown, proved his worth. Solromano made some predictions, and when they were right, he claimed he had information and everyone else did too. Again, this is the fallacy in motion. It's finding patterns where there are none. The people who think this is baloney are saying it because the people who do believe are guilty of the gambler's fallacy. Yes, people deny a lot of things. They call this one baloney because it is.

Everything you said was already addressed in the post above you.

EDIT: The "WFT was a joke" is not a valid argument. The claim people were making was that no one even discussed the character and thats not true. The claim it was a joke is irrelevant. Even still, that's something you are inferring.

 

[BKupa666]

Me referring to the WFT thread on GameFAQs as a joke is me putting it into context. It wasn't one of those massive GameFAQs threads that get bumped repeatedly with dozens of posts due to there being discussion or substance within them, it was a simple 'agree/disagree' throwaway thread that, by the looks of the timestamps, received just four posts over the course of roughly four hours before fading into irrelevance. Hell, if I hadn't searched for it and posted it in this thread, I could have made the claim that no one at all brought up WFT, and that wouldn't even be a discussion (although surely the deniers would still claim she was guessable because of the very sales that caused not one person to guess her previously). She easily qualifies as a specific item, whether or not the deniers would care to admit it. To claim even more specificity is needed is narrow-minded and also inferential regarding what the source "must have seen."

No one has addressed why a hypothetical false leaker would post one, maybe even two, three and four objectively unlikely characters in WFT, Villager, Mii and Pac-Man, instead of Palutena, Ridley, K. Rool, Takamaru, etc. if he was actually attempting to convincingly fool people. Neither has anyone addressed the possibility that the leaker could do anything but follow the straight and narrow archetypical "early and detailed" leak procedure that, based on precedent, would still get shat upon as baloney. "Wii Fit Trainer has a male alternate costume? Then why wasn't such a major part of her shown in her trailer?? This guy is a troll and obviously fake." "Villager rides a Gyroid in the game? Why doesn't the leaker know whether it's his Special or an entrance?? Even though no Villager movesets featured a ridden Gyroid, it was an obvious guessable detail. Oh, and screw that Pac-Man guy."

Mementos of the old leaks float around to this day as a reminder of the ignorance of those quick to label any and all leaks they see false, or for that matter, of those quick to label any reasonable aspect of Smash "definitely not happening/returning." I have a gnawing feeling that this very thread will produce more of these exact mementos.

 

[MexM]

39 games on Nintendo consoles. Only fifteen of those are Nintendo exclusive and notable titles (such as Sonic CD and Sonic Generations) completely skipped over Nintendo.

Sonic Generations has a 3DS version. And Sonic CD is available in the Sonic Gems Collection compilation released for the GameCube.

 

[Jumpman84]

"But Wii Fit Trainer. No one talked about her." That's not true.

EDIT: The "WFT was a joke" is not a valid argument. The claim people were making was that no one even discussed the character and thats not true. The claim it was a joke is irrelevant. Even still, that's something you are inferring

Wow. It's kinda sad that you keep repeating the same lie over and over again. Like I mentioned earlier, Sakurai confirmed that no one had requested her. Repeating the same thing over and over does not magically make it true.

 

[Dr.Turtle]

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=599ZdRBJLaI
Maybe this video can shed a little light on the subject of Pac Man

 

[SmashChu]

@BKupa: Actually go read my post. You have made two post which commit the same fallacy I was trying to get you not to do.

Wow. It's kinda sad that you keep repeating the same lie over and over again. Like I mentioned earlier, Sakurai confirmed that no one had requested her. Repeating the same thing over and over does not magically make it true.

That's...not even what he said at all.

I get a lot of character request from all over the world and they are quite an array of Nintendo characters, but pretty much no one expected this character.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=599ZdRBJLaI
Maybe this video can shed a little light on the subject of Pac Man

There was no good arugment there. He starts of by saying "Why should Pac-Man be in. Well, because Namco is making it" and then proceeds to contradict himself 15 seconds later. He made the same piss poor arguments everyone else here made. "Oh, Pac-Man has been in games with Mario. Surely he should be in this game." If that's the case, lets just add Bomberman while were at it.

I feel like no one at Smash Boards can read.

 

[BKupa666]

@BKupa: Actually go read my post. You have made two post which commit the same fallacy I was trying to get you not to do.

I feel like no one at Smash Boards can read.

On the contrary, I have read and reread your posts for comprehension, then explained why I believe neither the Sharpshooter nor Gambler's fallacies are applicable here. You're labeling it an example of the former because it doesn't correspond to your preconceived notion of what a leak must be (not that adherence to this notion would prevent irrational criticism), while labeling it the latter because you believe a false leaker could have and would have guessed WFT to create a believable E3 leak for God knows what reason. In response, I have gotten, "Nuh uh, they totally apply, go read."

This whole thing just reeks of "Third parties won't be in SSB4" in that it's a rigid viewpoint that won't ever be changed. At this point, I'm discussing this moreso for the sake of any other users or lurkers reading whose perspectives might be a bit more malleable.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

SmashChu's fundamental understanding of the written word isn't much better than he claims other users to be.

''I get a lot of character request from all over the world and they are quite an array of Nintendo characters, but pretty much no one expected this character."

This translates in a much more common broken down way to:

''I see a lot of requests for characters from all over the world which are quite a vast majority of Nintendo characters but pretty much no one will expect this character because they did not ask for her."

If someone had asked for Wii Fit Trainer he would not have worded himself the way he did. Thus far she was not expected, because she was not expected. Meaning no one would be able to guess her.

 

[salaboB]

Mega Man also only has 129 games as of Dec 2012, so you over exaggerated a lot there.

Personally, I think when an individual character has 129 games he's in (With him being the main character for most of those), saying "800000 games" communicates the concept quite clearly.

129 is a lot of games.

 

[TheRealMrWillis]

129 is a lot of games.

Now I really want to see a number for Mario. And yes, including educational games and spinoffs!!

As for the subject at hand, I don't claim to know anything about the characters that will be in SSB4. But really, can't we all just acknowledge that OP was wrong, stop arguing like we're on Youtube, and wait for more ACTUAL news regarding the game?

 

[BKupa666]

Now I really want to see a number for Mario. And yes, including educational games and spinoffs!!

As for the subject at hand, I don't claim to know anything about the characters that will be in SSB4. But really, can't we all just acknowledge that OP was wrong, stop arguing like we're on Youtube, and wait for more ACTUAL news regarding the game?

 

[salaboB]

Now I really want to see a number for Mario. And yes, including educational games and spinoffs!!

Wikipedia lists 254.

192 once I remove the duplicates with the same name.

Either number is also a lot of games.

 

[SmashChu]

On the contrary, I have read and reread your posts for comprehension, then explained why I believe neither the Sharpshooter nor Gambler's fallacies are applicable here. You're labeling it an example of the former because it doesn't correspond to your preconceived notion of what a leak must be (not that adherence to this notion would prevent irrational criticism), while labeling it the latter because you believe a false leaker could have and would have guessed WFT to create a believable E3 leak for God knows what reason. In response, I have gotten, "Nuh uh, they totally apply, go read."

This whole thing just reeks of "Third parties won't be in SSB4" in that it's a rigid viewpoint that won't ever be changed. At this point, I'm discussing this moreso for the sake of any other users or lurkers reading whose perspectives might be a bit more malleable.

Three times.

You don't understand what the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy says. It's "finding order in chaos." Instead of making a new argument, you just went along the line of "NO ONE COULD HAVE KNOWN WFT." You took the same idea and took it into overdrive. Again, read my post. And when I say read, I mean understand it.

EDIT: I did double check your post. You haven't offered anything new which is another reason I say "Reread my post." Everything you said has already been covered. The only thing new is the whole "It was a joke thread!!!!!!!!!!" The claim was that no one brought the character up and, lo and behold, someone did. But now it was a joke so it doesn't count. That's called moving the goal post.

SmashChu's fundamental understanding of the written word isn't much better than he claims other users to be.

''I get a lot of character request from all over the world and they are quite an array of Nintendo characters, but pretty much no one expected this character."

This translates in a much more common broken down way to:

''I see a lot of requests for characters from all over the world which are quite a vast majority of Nintendo characters but pretty much no one will expect this character because they did not ask for her."

If someone had asked for Wii Fit Trainer he would not have worded himself the way he did. Thus far she was not expected, because she was not expected. Meaning no one would be able to guess her.

Pretty much means means nearly any. It doesn't mean none.

 

[BKupa666]

Three times.

You don't understand what the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy says. It's "finding order in chaos." Instead of making a new argument, you just went along the line of "NO ONE COULD HAVE KNOWN WFT." You took the same idea and took it into overdrive. Again, read my post. And when I say read, I mean understand it.

Yes, that's exactly what I believe the Sharpshooter fallacy says, and, in case I'm not "understanding" the Gambler's fallacy, my current interpretation of it based off of your post is that it's "believing order is increasingly likely to follow a series of lucky guesses." I'm adhering to my idea that no one could have guessed WFT (or would have guessed her if he wanted to make a false leak that had good odds of coming true...if I ask for a third time, will you address that? Or will it take a fourth??) because my request from multiple posts ago has not been met...it's just received the same idea taken into overdrive. "THIS IS ENTIRELY COINCIDENTAL." *introduces fallacies pigeonholing WFT as a lucky guess without backing it up in the slightest*

Believe me, not only do I not mind being proven wrong, I welcome the possibility. I beg anyone who can convincingly argue WFT was guessable, or why a hypothetical false leaker would include her (and Villager/Mii/Pac-Man) among his lucky guesses for an E3 reveal to do so. I think it would be optimistic to the point of foolishness to expect SmashChu to do either at this point, but maybe someone else is up to the task?

 

[Morbi]

Yes, that's exactly what I believe the Sharpshooter fallacy says, and, in case I'm not "understanding" the Gambler's fallacy, my current interpretation of it based off of your post is that it's "believing order is increasingly likely to follow a series of lucky guesses." I'm adhering to my idea that no one could have guessed WFT (or would have guessed her if he wanted to make a false leak that had good odds of coming true...if I ask for a third time, will you address that? Or will it take a fourth??) because my request from multiple posts ago has not been met...it's just received the same idea taken into overdrive. "THIS IS ENTIRELY COINCIDENTIAL." *ignores WFT in favor of fallacies that require WFT to be ignored*

Believe me, not only do I not mind being proven wrong, I welcome the possibility. I beg anyone who can convincingly argue WFT was guessable, or why a hypothetical false leaker would include her (and Villager/Mii/Pac-Man) among his lucky guesses for an E3 reveal. I think it would be optimistic to the point of foolishness to expect SmashChu to provide either to me at this point, but maybe someone else is up to the task?

I have to agree with this notion. Fallacy or not, we have to acknowledge the practical application of certain aspects of speculation. WFT was never a logical guess, and no rational person would leak her (if their intention was to be credible).

 

[salaboB]

Yes, that's exactly what I believe the Sharpshooter fallacy says, and, in case I'm not "understanding" the Gambler's fallacy, my current interpretation of it based off of your post is that it's "believing order is increasingly likely to follow a series of lucky guesses." I'm adhering to my idea that no one could have guessed WFT (or would have guessed her if he wanted to make a false leak that had good odds of coming true...if I ask for a third time, will you address that? Or will it take a fourth??) because my request from multiple posts ago has not been met...it's just received the same idea taken into overdrive. "THIS IS ENTIRELY COINCIDENTAL." *introduces fallacies pigeonholing WFT as a lucky guess without backing it up in the slightest*

Using the texas sharpshooter fallacy's basis as an example (Make a bunch of shots at a barn, paint the target around the shots, call yourself an expert marksman) what we're basically looking at is a bunch of shots that are clustered very tightly -- even if the target was painted after, whoever did the shooting was still pretty consistent.

(And if WFT can't be found in other guesses and there was no publicly known reasonable basis to guess WFT, that really puts holes in the target being chosen/painted after the shots were fired).

Also, sadly, the most common use I see of defined logical fallacies is for people to incorrectly accuse others of committing them.

 

[Jumpman84]

That's...not even what he said at all.

I get a lot of character request from all over the world and they are quite an array of Nintendo characters, but pretty much no one expected this character.

...How is that not what he said? If you mean that it isn't his exact wording, well then my mistake. Thanks, sir Grammar Nazi. For the record, "pretty much" just refers to a negligible amount that could exist. Like say, a joke thread on GameFAQs from back in 2008. And if no one expects a character, they wouldn't request said character or even discuss it. Just saying.

Ironically enough, with this post, you have actually given support to the leak being true. If pretty much no one expected this character, then how could this person have guessed that she would be revealed? After all, why would you guess someone that you don't expect in the game? In any case, this is a moot point because the person who made the guess isn't the actual leaker, which you would have known had you actually read his post. The guy received an email from said alleged leaker, giving that info. And even he thought WFT was ridiculous. Why would he seriously post that on his website before the fact and become the laughing stock of the community if it was wrong?

So he made a guess, just so he could have something he could show people to prove it was before the reveal. Then when he saw the reveal, he knew that he actually had something legit, hence he made the article. I don't see how that's not a logical course of events to follow.

In conclusion, whether you accept it or not, the leak gave us three out of six characters correct. So it's feasible the other three could also be in the game.

 

[Fenrir VII]

I think Wariofan summed everything up nicely, but Fenrir, I have to wonder, if your perception of Tom Nook is that "he was WIDELY requested" and "requests for him abounded," how do you describe characters who actually met those criteria before E3, like Ridley, K. Rool, or Mewtwo?

Honestly, I've seen more conversations (mainly on Gamefaqs) about Tom Nook than any of those, other than Ridley... considering both pre-brawl and pre-SSB4.

Ridley is typically just argued about, so it's really hard to put a bead on what people want.. I see him requested pretty often, though, so that's a good call. I can't imagine the hellfire that would be around if the leak had included him, though...

K. Rool... is he really requested that much? I see him mentioned from time to time, but really not all that often. I mean, I guess, but I'm not really aware of a large number of posts about him. Actually, I see more posts about random supporting FE characters (Tharja, anyone?), Shulk, and Waluigi than K. Rool...

Mewtwo, I've just seen speculated, but again not a whole lot..

My point is still that aside from WFT, all the characters are pretty easy guesses.... the fact that he guessed 6 characters and got 3 right is not alarming... the only real believability is WFT.

WFT: real oddball, like we've said.
'Animal Crossing Guy': talked about a lot, assuming Nook would have been considered true
Megaman: Easily the most requested 3rd party
Mii: In every Nintendo party-style game (practically) for the past few years
Pac-man: Namco is making the game, so rounding out the 3rd parties makes sense
Little Mac: Often requested, new game, lacking Nintendo 1st party rep... just makes sense.

 

[papagenos]

when breaking it down i find the half of the leak we HAVENT seen more believable than what we got:

mii: nintendo puts them in everything/ sakurai has said there would be some form of customization and many guessed mii's would be involved in that somehow.
pac-man: everyone knows namco is working on the game and therefore this is a solid 3rd party assumption.
little mac: probably the most likely newcomer character having a series revival post-brawl, being a former assist trophy, and being one of the few nintendo icons not in the game already.

now thats what we DIDNT get what we got was:

wii fit trainer: unguessable. no. one could. guess. this. this was the least likely of the six and it was one of the reveals.
animal crossing guy: AC was skipped over last time and sakurai vocally said he didnt see AC working since they aren't fighters in anyway. (not gonna argue the name because this is 2nd hand info from an email/ the character could have just been seen in a pic or footage and not the name just a description since the character has NO name/ could have seen a japanese demo or something and was unsure of the characters english name).
megaman: clearly the most requested 3rd party character so this one was likely but unlike "pac-man" there was nothing beyond being fan requested that pointed to him being in the game.

so when staked up like that i think the 3 we didnt get were a more likely prediction than the 3 we got. if mii's pac-man and little mac got revealed we could probably find multiple instances of people "guessing" them, where as a post with villager and wii fit trainer only exists once and the poster has said he didnt guess it he was told it. keep in mind if you guess something that doesnt mean you turn around and lie that you new for internet fame or something, you could just say you made a lucky guess, instead we have a fairly reputable guy telling us WHY he guessed right...and the reason is he didnt guess.