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Official 4BR Tier List V4 - Competitive Insight & Analysis

MercuryPenny

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marth does well against nearly everyone mario sucks against (especially bayonetta) and ally has an extremely good record against sonic. i can see it working out for him, assuming he continues to at least secondary mario
 
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Iridium

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Ally using Marth will be interesting, I wonder how good his spacing is with him. I've never seen him use Marth much.
Based on being influenced by Leo, I honestly see Ally becoming a greater threat. At least Marth does not suffer from range issues, and Leo's great record against Bayos with Marth might be a factor as well.
 

Prince Koopa Jr

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Based on being influenced by Leo, I honestly see Ally becoming a greater threat. At least Marth does not suffer from range issues, and Leo's great record against Bayos with Marth might be a factor as well.
Ally using Marth will also result in more results for the character. With him and Leo being top Marth representatives, Marth will be in a good spot in the metagame.
 

Skeeter Mania

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Ally using Marth will also result in more results for the character. With him and Leo being top Marth representatives, Marth will be in a good spot in the metagame.
Then what does that say for Mario? Do we just not put any more stock into the character and just not care?

If so, what's the point in taking tier lists seriously if they're that volatile?
 

Sinister Slush

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I genuinely don't think anybody but cloud can be #2 in this game, only one for contention is Diddy in my book. Some might say Rosa and sheik added in there too with time but they both have glaring problem match ups and super susceptible to early deaths due to their weight.
At least Rosa can do the same compared to Sheik, so maybe down the line Rosalina will rise above sheik or even diddy since Zero is gone but I can't see anyone dethroning Cloud's comfy #2 spot.

Bayo should be in SS tier alone though :^)
 

Yonder

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Corrin could win a national, falcon probably not because Rosa exist, Luigi could potentially win a national, gotta get past those tough matchups though. That's just my two cents on what characters I believe could probably win a national.
Luigi already won a national in my mind vs MKLeo when that bair should have won the set -.-

So, yes. He definitely can.


Btw if Ally stops using Mario as a main, Mario will plummet a bit. His reps outside of Zenyou and Anti are iffy at best.
 

Prince Koopa Jr

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Luigi already won a national in my mind vs MKLeo when that bair should have won the set -.-

So, yes. He definitely can.


Btw if Ally stops using Mario as a main, Mario will plummet a bit. His reps outside of Zenyou and Anti are iffy at best.
Zenyou has a really potent combo game, while Ally is better at playing neutral, and Anti gets waves of attention at times.
 

spinalwolf

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When has a sheik main ever won a national after Zero stopped maining her(and after she got nerfed)? I don't understand why people are saying she's a contender for second or even best character in the game. She's just too inconsistent.
 
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MH-Jin

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When has a sheik main ever won a national after Zero stopped maining her?
Sadly the closest was VoiD for dreamhack Atlanta where he came 2nd to Salem.

Sheik still has really good results though..Void and Mr.R always make at least 9th at each tournament. Javi has been getting better results with a win on Larry Lurr at Genesis 5 and getting top 32 at the majors he's attended. Strong regional results are made from players like big_mak, Karna and Blank.

Winning a major with Sheik is stressful though with long brackets. With her lack of kill power in high pressure situations (after a failed kill setup) and constantly winning neutral over and over again (unless she gets a gimp)... It can be hard for Sheik players if they're not playing on point or lacking in an important aspect when it comes to playing Sheik.
 

MarioManTAW

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When has a sheik main ever won a national after Zero stopped maining her(and after she got nerfed)? I don't understand why people are saying she's a contender for second or even best character in the game. She's just too inconsistent.
Maybe not a win, but VoiD got 2nd place at DreamHack Atlanta. Otherwise, regarding consistency, either VoiD or Mr. R (sometimes both) got top 16 at 13/14 S-tiers during 2017 (all except CEO). 8/14 S-tiers had at least one of the 2 in top 8.
2 Sheik players in the top 10 is far from inconsistent, even if they're 9th and 10th.
 

spinalwolf

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Maybe not a win, but VoiD got 2nd place at DreamHack Atlanta. Otherwise, regarding consistency, either VoiD or Mr. R (sometimes both) got top 16 at 13/14 S-tiers during 2017 (all except CEO). 8/14 S-tiers had at least one of the 2 in top 8.
2 Sheik players in the top 10 is far from inconsistent, even if they're 9th and 10th.
Well I mean compared to other characters within the top tier rankings but I see what you're getting at.
 

MarioManTAW

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Well I mean compared to other characters within the top tier rankings but I see what you're getting at.
Even then, players of the top 4 in the top 10:
:4bayonetta:: 1 (Salem) and a secondary (Tweek)
:4cloud:: 2 (MKLeo & Tweek), both of whom commonly use secondaries
:4diddy:: 1 (ZeRo), excluding Nairo's rare pocket Diddy that was mostly just for Salem
:4sheik:: 2 dedicated solo mains (VoiD & Mr. R)
 

Jjab430

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Corrin could win a national, falcon probably not because Rosa exist, Luigi could potentially win a national, gotta get past those tough matchups though. That's just my two cents on what characters I believe could probably win a national.
:rosalina: is easily Falcon's best top tier match up. I think Fatality has like a 20(+) to 1 lifetime record in tournament/off stream money matches against Dabuz's Rosa and as far as I know he hasn't lost to any others in tournament. Civil War was literally the first and only time that Dabuz has beaten him without switching off of her. In fact the last time they played was at King of the Springs earlier this month and it ended in a swift 3-0 by Fatality.

------

Anyways :4falcon: can absolutely win a major. He doesn't have any relevant matchups that gate keep him from doing so and at top level, Pikachu is probably his only matchup worse than 45-55 (yes, that includes Ryu, Sheik, Bayonetta, and any other character rumored to body Falcon). Unless Fatality gets an unlucky draw and runs into ESAM, he has a realistic shot against anybody and he's shown he's capable of steamrolling multiple top 10 players in one go.

If anything is holding Falcon back from winning a major it's his steep learning curve. Other than maybe Pikachu, he probably has the highest skill ceiling and the most room for development among the high tiers. But because of his unforgiving disadvantaged state, Falcon is the kind of character that—if you want to be successful with him—you need to come in 100% prepared against every single match up in the game. If you don't know exactly when to pick your spots, what you need to watch out for to minimize damage taken and prevent early edge guards, and how to capitalize on any openings you get to the fullest, you will die a quick and humiliating death against players that you shouldn't be losing to.

Falcon's other issue is that his neutral can be difficult to master. He isn't going to convert a safe tilt into a huge combo or oppress you in neutral until you reach kill percent. He doesn't have that same safety net that the top tiers do. What he thrives on—his crazy punish game—is going to come from grabs, falling aerials, and dash attacks—all of which put him in close range, susceptible to getting hit and eating big punishes himself. However, what he lacks in sheer diversity and number of options, he makes up for with his ability to threaten space with his burst movement. This, in my opinion, is the #1 deciding factor of viability in this game. When you're as fast as Falcon and you combine it with quick rolls and dash dancing, at a certain range his approaches are impossible to react to allowing you to control the pace of neutral against most characters. Just mixing up the timing on your approaches gives you an infinite amount of options in neutral. Because of his long initial dash though, mid level Falcon players don't do a very good job of exploiting this and often fall into the habit of approaching too linearly and running directly into projectiles and lingering hit boxes. Which is probably where the notion that he has a linear neutral comes from.

It's no surprise to me that his player base at a high level is lacking outside of Fatality. It takes an incredible amount of dedication to reach the level that Fatality has with the character. Mid and high level players typically feel like they've hit a wall playing him because of a certain match up or player, character loyalty wanes, and they end up dropping him for someone that can get similar results with considerably less effort. You guys probably remember that for almost a year, from late 2015 to fall 2016, it looked like Falcon's meta had completely stagnated and that the character was doomed to fall off a la Ness. But really, Falcon players had just hit a wall and the meta progressed without them.

It wasn't until around TBH6 that Fatality had started thinking outside the box and breaking down his walls by utilizing Bidou to master his movement and exploring some of Falcon's lesser utilized options like edge guarding with falcon dive and footstool combos. Obviously though, Civil War was his true coming out party and the first time that he showed just how good Falcon can be at his peak. Since then, he's continued to improve his neutral, work on matchups, and explore Falcon's 50/50's with knee and it has really shown these last few tournaments. His mind games and ability to condition his opponent right now are on another level. In fact he's currently projected to make 6th on the PGR if it were to come out today. In 2018, I'm looking forward to him taking that final step and continuing to show this same consistency and the ability to replicate runs like those he had at Civil War and Momocon.

I've always had the feeling that played at his best, Falcon could be as just good as the likes of Mario, Marth, and Mewtwo. I don't think that the majority will ever come around to the idea but after watching Fatality's progress over the last year, I really do think I was right on the money.
 
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spinalwolf

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Why should we take you seriously? Are you just one of many Sheik naysayers?
Sheik naysayer? I just don't think she's good enough to be second best. You seem angry at me just cause I wasn't understanding what you were getting at before from our previous conversation.
 

The-Technique

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You seem a little miffed about me explaining what is like, common knowledge lol. Like, it's aight man. Bullet points

- Who said anything about doom and gloom? I'm just stating the facts: Bayonetta is like, de facto the only character that should be considered atm if you want to win and have the absolute best chance of it.
- SDI is incredibly uncomfortable for my hands in particular, and I've never been able to do it properly.
- Also yes miles better, relatively speaking she is playing a wholly different game and I think that is worth stating. Like Cloud is pretty much the next in line (or Sheik or Diddy, but this is hotly debated) and like, Cloud is still a myriad of "interesting" decisions but, yeah.

Also you could probably change the tude. You're getting upset and now you're lashing out at me with like, sarcasm? Can you not have a discussion about this like an adult? You seem to have doubts about my execution because I arbitrarily do not like the motions SDI requires because they hurt my body, so do go on. Being mocked for having an inability to intuitively SDI Bayo properly without hurting my thumb based on controller grip is a nice firm reminder to not post on these forums again, I suppose.

(Also if 2 stick SDI worked it'd be a lot easier but I have no idea why they removed that. Weird decision on their part I guess)
It's hard to take you seriously along with others that complain about Bayonetta to the same capacity, and the main reason is that I don't get the sense that you dug neck deep into frame data and hitbox data, jumped in the lab and exhausted every possible strategy and tactic that your character can use against Bayonetta, but that you ran into a handful of middling no-name flowchart Bayonettas and called it quits. Especially when you make statements like "SDI is too hard" and "Bayonetta is impossible to frame trap". (by the way, you should be using SDI *all* of the time, not just vs Bayo. Lucario aura sphere, meta knight u airs, Marth dancing blade, all rapid jabs, Ryu utilts, Lucas nair, etc.)

That's really the problem this community at large has in general. Whenever a wide variety of players like Elegant, Nairo, Cosmos, Fatality etc defeat Bayos back to back, along with Leo who has yet to drop a set to top Bayos ever since he started using Marth against them, the response is never:

"Wow they really took it to those Bayonettas, and with a variety of different characters and playstyles no less! Let's analyze their gameplay and delve into the tactics they employ against her, so that we ourselves can emulate them and enjoy similar success in the future!"

but always, invariably, its this:

"bayonetta is an unbeatable character, no counterplay exists, it is impossible to beat her, shes boring, these are objective facts"

Not the best look for a community that desires to be competitive, much less a discussion board named "Competitive Discussion". But whatever, I'm dropping this for now (at least until the next major comes around the corner and the complaining and "i told you so's" can begin anew)
:rosalina: is easily Falcon's best top tier match up. I think Fatality has like a 20(+) to 1 lifetime record in tournament/off stream money matches against Dabuz and as far as I know he hasn't lost to any other Rosas in tournament. Civil War was literally the first and only time that Dabuz has beaten him without switching off of her. In fact the last time they played was at King of the Springs earlier this month and it ended in a swift 3-0 by Fatality.

------

Anyways :4falcon: can absolutely win a major. He doesn't have any relevant matchups that gate keep him from doing so and at top level, Pikachu is probably his only matchup worse than 45-55 (yes, that includes Ryu, Sheik, Bayonetta, and any other character rumored to body Falcon). Unless Fatality gets an unlucky draw and runs into ESAM, he has a realistic shot against anybody and he's shown he's capable of steamrolling multiple top 10 players in one go.

If anything is holding Falcon back from winning a major it's his steep learning curve. Other than maybe Pikachu, he probably has the highest skill ceiling and the most room for development among the high tiers. But because of his unforgiving disadvantaged state, Falcon is the kind of character that—if you want to be successful with him—you need to come in 100% prepared against every single match up in the game. If you don't know exactly when to pick your spots, what you need to watch out for to minimize damage taken and prevent early edge guards, and how to capitalize on any openings you get to the fullest, you will die a quick and humiliating death against players that you shouldn't be losing to.

Falcon's other issue is that his neutral can be difficult to master. He isn't going to convert a safe tilt into a huge combo or oppress you in neutral until you reach kill percent. He doesn't have that same safety net that the top tiers do. What he thrives on—his crazy punish game—is going to come from grabs, falling aerials, and dash attacks—all of which put him in close range, susceptible to getting hit and eating big punishes himself. However, what he lacks in sheer diversity and number of options, he makes up for with his ability to threaten space with his burst movement. This, in my opinion, is the #1 deciding factor of viability in this game. When you're as fast as Falcon and you combine it with quick rolls and dash dancing, at a certain range his approaches are impossible to react to. Just mixing up the timing on your approaches gives you an infinite amount of options in neutral. Because of his long dash though, mid level Falcon players don't do a very good job of exploiting this and often fall into the habit of approaching too linearly and running directly into projectiles and lingering hit boxes. Which is where the notion that he has a linear neutral comes from.

It's no surprise to me that his player base at a high level is lacking outside of Fatality. It takes an incredible amount of dedication to reach the level that Fatality has with the character. Mid and high level players typically feel like they've hit a wall playing him because of a certain match up or player, character loyalty wanes, and they end up dropping him for someone that can get similar results with considerably less effort. You guys probably remember that for almost a year, from late 2015 to fall 2016, it looked like Falcon's meta had completely stagnated and that the character was doomed to fall off a la Ness. But really, Falcon players had just hit a wall and the meta progressed without them.

It wasn't until around TBH6 that Fatality had started thinking outside the box and breaking down his walls by utilizing Bidou to master his movement and exploring some of Falcon's lesser utilized options like edge guarding with falcon dive and footstool combos. Obviously though, Civil War was his true coming out party and the first time that he showed just how good Falcon can be at his peak. Since then, he's continued to improve his neutral, work on matchups, and explore Falcon's 50/50's with knee and it has really shown these last few tournaments. His mind games and ability to condition his opponent right now are on another level. In fact he's currently projected to make 6th on the PGR if it were to come out today. In 2018, I'm looking forward to him taking that final step and continuing to show this same consistency and the ability to replicate runs like those he had at Civil War and Momocon.

I've always had the feeling that played at his best, Falcon could be as just good as the likes of Mario, Marth, and Mewtwo. I don't think that the majority will ever come around to the idea but after watching Fatality's progress over the last year, I really do think I was right on the money.
Yeah I can see where you're coming from. Falcon is an interesting character overall in that he can beat anyone but also lose to anyone in the same capacity. He also posted a new Falcon matchup chart just days ago, with Pikachu and Game&Watch down as his worst matchups. Fatality even has Jigglypuff as a 50:50 matchup, on par with the likes of Rosalina and Diddy in terms of difficulty. And meanwhile Kirby exerts the same threat level as characters like Cloud and Bayonetta, in the 45:55 category. It's pretty inspiring to see the level of dedication a player can have toward a perceived lesser character and bring them into the spotlight singlehandedly, like what Elegant did with Luigi.
 
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Prince Koopa Jr

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It's hard to take you seriously along with others that complain about Bayonetta to the same capacity, and the main reason is that I don't get the sense that you dug neck deep into frame data and hitbox data, jumped in the lab and exhausted every possible strategy and tactic that your character can use against Bayonetta, but that you ran into a handful of middling no-name flowchart Bayonettas and called it quits. Especially when you make statements like "SDI is too hard" and "Bayonetta is impossible to frame trap".

That's really the problem this community at large has in general. Whenever a wide variety of players like Elegant, Nairo, Cosmos, Fatality etc defeat Bayos back to back, along with Leo who has yet to drop a set to top Bayos ever since he started using Marth against them, the response is never:

"Wow they really took it to those Bayonettas, and with a variety of different characters and playstyles no less! Let's analyze their gameplay and delve into the tactics they employ against her, so that we ourselves can emulate them and enjoy similar success in the future!"

but always, invariably, its this:

"bayonetta is an unbeatable character, no counterplay exists, it is impossible to beat her, shes boring, these are objective facts"

Not the best look for a community that desires to be competitive, much less a discussion board named "Competitive Discussion". But whatever, I'm dropping this for now (at least until the next major comes around the corner and the complaining and "i told you so's" can begin anew)


Yeah I can see where you're coming from. Falcon is an interesting character overall in that he can beat anyone but also lose to anyone in the same capacity. He also posted a new Falcon matchup chart just days ago, with Pikachu and Game&Watch down as his worst matchups. Fatality even has Jigglypuff as a 50:50 matchup, on par with the likes of Rosalina and Diddy in terms of difficulty. And meanwhile Kirby exerts the same threat level as characters like Cloud and Bayonetta, in the 45:55 category. It's pretty inspiring to see the level of dedication a player can have toward a perceived lesser character and bring them into the spotlight singlehandedly, like what Elegant did with Luigi.
Fatality is a really solid player who has a lot of devotion and loyalty to his character. He will only continue to improve and push the falcon metagame further. When Komota beat Ally with Kirby at Frostbite, it was an upset.
 

Frihetsanka

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Ally using Marth will also result in more results for the character. With him and Leo being top Marth representatives, Marth will be in a good spot in the metagame.
So... If Ally had chosen, say, Corrin or Ryu instead, their "spot in the metagame" would've improved, then? Ally playing Marth doesn't actually change Marth at all (nor does it change Mario). The characters are still the same.

As for the whole "can win a major" thing, are we forgetting that characters like Lucario and Link have been really close in the past to win a major? Even 40:60 MUs are winable, and very few characters have MUs worse than 40:60, so theoretically, most characters could win a major. Of course, the best players generally go for what they perceive to be viable characters, so most mid and low tier characters are carried by non-top 50 players. If players like MkLeo, Tweek, Dabuz, and Nairo decided to main, say, Samus, or Shulk, then I think it'd be pretty likely that Samus or Shulk would win a major at some point.

Most players who have a shot at earning a living on Smash 4 decide to pick a top tier or a high tier character though, because not doing so would put them at a disadvantage. There are some exceptions to this (such as many Japanese players), but they are still exceptions. It's not that mid tiers are necessarily bad, but they're worse than high tiers and top tiers. Even high tiers are fairly rare at top levels of play (you don't see all that many Corrins or Pikachus or Meta Knights or Lucarios, even though they're all pretty good characters).
 

Crooked Crow

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Is it really worth it to put in so much stock just for a video game?
Why are you even here, on a competitive website, where we put egregious amounts of stock into a hobby we are, well, passionate about. Aren't you? Don't you want to improve? Does the journey for accomplishing this really matter? It's different for everybody .

Not everything has to be approached so two dimensionally.
FB_IMG_1522158787641.jpg
 

Prince Koopa Jr

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Why are you even here, on a competitive website, where we put egregious amounts of stock into a hobby we are, well, passionate about. Aren't you? Don't you want to improve? Does the journey for accomplishing this really matter? It's different for everybody .

Not everything has to be approached so two dimensionally. View attachment 139853
So... If Ally had chosen, say, Corrin or Ryu instead, their "spot in the metagame" would've improved, then? Ally playing Marth doesn't actually change Marth at all (nor does it change Mario). The characters are still the same.

As for the whole "can win a major" thing, are we forgetting that characters like Lucario and Link have been really close in the past to win a major? Even 40:60 MUs are winable, and very few characters have MUs worse than 40:60, so theoretically, most characters could win a major. Of course, the best players generally go for what they perceive to be viable characters, so most mid and low tier characters are carried by non-top 50 players. If players like MkLeo, Tweek, Dabuz, and Nairo decided to main, say, Samus, or Shulk, then I think it'd be pretty likely that Samus or Shulk would win a major at some point.

Most players who have a shot at earning a living on Smash 4 decide to pick a top tier or a high tier character though, because not doing so would put them at a disadvantage. There are some exceptions to this (such as many Japanese players), but they are still exceptions. It's not that mid tiers are necessarily bad, but they're worse than high tiers and top tiers. Even high tiers are fairly rare at top levels of play (you don't see all that many Corrins or Pikachus or Meta Knights or Lucarios, even though they're all pretty good characters).
Japanese players generally use more obscure characters (ex Shuton). Shuton puts in a lot of work with olimar and he has decent results, but some players think he is limited by olimar and that if he chose a better character he would win more.
 

Skeeter Mania

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Why are you even here, on a competitive website, where we put egregious amounts of stock into a hobby we are, well, passionate about. Aren't you? Don't you want to improve? Does the journey for accomplishing this really matter? It's different for everybody .
What I'm asking is what is there for putting in so much time.
 

Sinister Slush

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What MUs? If anything, how the meta is turning is favouring her.
She suffocates nearly every character in the game with her frame data, but she tickles people for 2 minutes and sometimes their top players have problems closing the stock while the opponent has 120+% rage and kills sheik sub 60%

Problem match ups wasn't the right word, but as someone already commented when was the last time Sheik won a national or major?

They unfortunately fall short once they hit top 8 or don't even make it sometimes at 9th, 13th place or even lower.
Go through the last page of Das Koopa's tourney placing data for 2018, ctrl+F Sheik and open every tab and tell me how many times solo Sheik shows up in top 8 of a Category 4/5 tournament. Or hell, I'm willing to bet for category 3 there'd only be one handful of times she'd show up for top 4/6.
Though if people wanna count secondary Sheik's or Sheik mains using secondaries then I'm not gonna take that bet cause a lot of Sheik players have pocket Cloud or Diddy.

Am I saying Sheik or her players are bad? Hell no, just saying she can't possibly take a #2 or even #3 spot in a tier list when Diddy Rosa and Zss players do much better than her. (not counting the top 2 DLC of course, everyone knows they're better)
 

Frihetsanka

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Japanese players generally use more obscure characters (ex Shuton). Shuton puts in a lot of work with olimar and he has decent results, but some players think he is limited by olimar and that if he chose a better character he would win more.
I also think that many of the Japanese players are held back by their characters. Olimar isn't that bad though (he could be top 20), and for some players it's better to pick a sub-top 15 character that fits their playstyle instead of picking a top 15 character.

Don't get me wrong, I do appreciate the mid tier mains who push their character to their limit and provide great entertainment for the rest of us. I also understand why many top level players prefer to pick better characters (if you're playing for hundreds or thousands of dollars it makes sense to not limit yourself by picking a mid tier).
 

MarioManTAW

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Just a quick note on Japanese playing lower-tiered characters: there is 0 financial incentive to play the best character for Japanese players who don't travel.
 

MistressRemilia

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RE: Falcon

I think he might be the most player dependent character out there, because everyone nearly has the tools to fight Falcon in the neutral, as he isn't that oppressive if the player doesnt manage to make it so, through his lack of purely neutral based tools, whether it's an aerial ( Bair would be the closest ) or even on the ground. However, through insane mobility, Top 3 dash based punishes in the game, and most importantly bonkers advantage state, Falcon is a character that already induces a lot of pressure by simple movement. He remains however fairly susceptible to up-close pressure, and it's important for the opposing player, no matter the character they're playing, to pressure the Falcon player and make him respect you. If the pressure is not here, the Falcon player will have all the reasons in the world to act more careless and essentially start a battle that you can't win because his advantage state when you don't pressure him into being more weary of his uses of his own pressure tools like falling UpAir can lead into so much that it isn't even funny: He may not be the safest character out there, but the slow & steady approach for a character built around bait & punishing opponents into near unrivaled combos is most likely not the way to go for most characters (I think exceptions can be made for Bowser or Rosalina, which are characters that can both play a form of complete ground game for the Falcon player to have to think twice about his approaches, courtesy of their great ground games & respectable enough OoS to answer Falcon, along with putting him in a consequentially disadvantageous state that can condition Falcon into rethinking approaches and having less freedom, but even then, that's a lot of work, and these characters are far from the best at fighting Falcon). But anyway, the point would be that most characters have tools Falcon can't answer that well through conventional means, and that with wise use of these moves, you can kind of overwhelm him, along with his bad advantage. But at the same time, Falcon's great mobility allows him to punish fairly well those who do not use the move in a variety of ways in order to trick him: Fighting the character really makes you think how nearly every one of your moves, even movement, can be a form of commitment, or a message you're giving to the Falcon that could lead into him pressuring you more carelessly & being able to seek out your disadvantage habits quicker. In that way, he really is a player dependent character.

On to a new topic, i would like to discuss the current state of Yoshi's metagame: The Yoshi metagame has always been fairly silent, with the occasional result coming from the likes of Seth or Raptor, with fairly low peaks. I think this can be explained through the fact that Yoshi doesnt really fit the metagame we're stuck with right now, in a way that his neutral isn't at all suited to fight the most prominent characters of the game, whether it's through his inability to pressure them if they decide to play the lame game due to his inconsequential tools for fighting Shield as a whole and his vulnerability to OoS if he wants to pull any string or combos, or his lack of more practical aerials and/or grounded moves kind of leaves him pretty weak to the more prominent top aerials of the games, more notably the likes of Sheik/Diddy Fair, but not just them. I'm not a Yoshi specialist by any means, so i'd be interested to hear the thoughts of Yoshi optimists, to see if they're seeing something that i'm not, or if the thought of Yoshi kind of playing a game of smokes & mirror through his great mobility but has been figured out & can't do much anymore is the common opinion that people have on Yoshi. ( Please come back Yoshidora, we all miss you )
 
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Frihetsanka

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Just a quick note on Japanese playing lower-tiered characters: there is 0 financial incentive to play the best character for Japanese players who don't travel.
Indeed, which is likely one of the main factors why Japan has so many incredibly skilled players playing mid tiers. This is also likely one of the reasons why smaller regions seem to be more likely to have low and mid tier characters doing well, less financial incentive. Some players might actually gain more opportunities by playing lower tier characters (I imagine people might be more likely to spend money to fly out a Duck Hunt from Japan than some pretty good Cloud or Bayonetta player, for instance).
 

Prince Koopa Jr

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Indeed, which is likely one of the main factors why Japan has so many incredibly skilled players playing mid tiers. This is also likely one of the reasons why smaller regions seem to be more likely to have low and mid tier characters doing well, less financial incentive. Some players might actually gain more opportunities by playing lower tier characters (I imagine people might be more likely to spend money to fly out a Duck Hunt from Japan than some pretty good Cloud or Bayonetta player, for instance).
Raito, Zeke, and T are great examples of good low-mid tier character players. T especially with his Link has so much potential, him placing 3rd at civil war (which was a very stacked tournament) is what really made the public eye aware of him. Raito, is really intellectual and has some of the best traps with duck hunt and has taken games off of top players playing superior characters.
 

Minordeth

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Who could win a national?

I think about it in terms of "how much bracket luck does X" character need.

It would be helpful to dodge 0-1 characters:
:4bayonetta::4cloud2::4diddy::4fox::4sheik::4mewtwo::4marth::4sonic::4zss::rosalina:

It would be helpful to dodge 2-3 characters:
:4mario::4pikachu::4metaknight::4olimar::4peach::4corrin::4greninja:

Characters that need to dodge Rosa:
:4falcon::4luigi::4dk::4link::4ryu:

Honestly, quite a few characters could win big and make regular money.

Now, if you wanted to ask me how many characters could win consistently, over the lifetime of the game? Yeah, that's more limited. Captain Falcon ain't winning a bunch of majors.
 

Bigbomb2

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Characters that need to dodge Rosa:
:4falcon::4luigi::4dk::4link::4ryu:
Rosa isn't terrible for Link overall. Dabuz himself is bad for Links lol. His main avoidance should be Sheik by far. Who's Falcon's worst MU? Is it actually Rosa or is it Bayo?
 

MistressRemilia

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Characters that need to dodge Rosa:
:4falcon:
Mind explaining this one to me? I'm pretty sure Rosalina is the least of Falcon's problems, with the core of Rosalina's advantage not being as lethal as it would need to put Falcon in the stressful situations he can be put up against characters like Bayonetta, while also doing fairly nicely in the neutral, with the ability to both chase Rosalina while Luma's gone fairly well, punishing her for poor choices in such a state, and Luma not being too hard to kill as Falcon.

In regards to consistency, i like your way of thinking, but it's kind of limited in regards to trying to group characters together. I think that characters beyond your 1st tier have to do a lot more than just dodge a couple of characters, they also just have a lot more even matchups & are generally prone to upsets. The 1st tier characters, particularly the Top 4 & maybe Sonic/Rosa have tools that can be rather overwhelming to a significant part of the lower cast who usually lacks approach options among other issues. Then again, if we're talking about most likely unrivaled peaks for a given chracter, that's a completely different story

Other nitpick: I do not believe Link can really be grouped with these characters, as he has more to worry about than just Rosalina, and that a lot of the credit would go to T's understanding of how Link's pressure works, along with precise awareness of space to nail otherwise risky options on people that usually do not play most optimally against Link.

On the other hand, i believe that if you were to broaden that category to " Characters that NEED ( as opposed to " it would be helpful " ) to dodge a certain character ", you could perhaps include the likes of Bowser & Duck Hunt into the list. The peak of a solid Duck Hunt i believe may go as far as winning nationals because of how consistent his zoning is, regardless of the character's solid tools to shave off the likes of Can. However, Bayonetta take it to such an extent that Duck Hunt is hardly able to play the neutral against her, while also usually granting her Rage and putting himself at risk of the character's explosive advantage.
 
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Minordeth

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What tier would the rest of the cast be in? Plus, why is Link listed? On top of that, Rosalina isn't even a bad MU for Falcon.
Rosa isn't terrible for Link overall. Dabuz himself is bad for Links lol. His main avoidance should be Sheik by far. Who's Falcon's worst MU? Is it actually Rosa or is it Bayo?
I knew I shoulda made that a more obvious joke. The spot with Captain Falcon and Link is more that they have to dodge common threats that always have the potential to wreck their day in a best of 3.

Link is basically listed because I could see him winning a national if he dodges certain top player MUs.

Falcon’s worst common MU is probably Sheik. Pika would be up there, but he’s easier to dodge.

Honestly, bottom line:

given a large national, and some luck from the bracket gods, a decent portion of the cast could clutch a W. My main issue is with how often they can do that, which is where the rest of the cast resides.



*Lucario, Villager, I guess Tink, and maybe Duck Hunt should be up in realm between “Dodge Rosa” tier and “dodge 2-3” characters.

Edit again: I’m going to actually have to put real effort into this heh
 
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The-Technique

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Fatality's latest Falcon matchup chart for anyone curious.
 

Skeeter Mania

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Fatality's latest Falcon matchup chart for anyone curious.
This looked pretty damning when I first saw the chart. This kinda makes Falcon look something like high-mid at best.

BTW, Minordeth Minordeth , what about Pit? Where would he be in terms of your solo viability list?
 
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