Okaaaay, so now that I have a second:
There is a broad section of characters that can win a major.
This is due to the fact that there are almost 60 characters in the game, most background mechanics are esoteric (like rage), and pools - and occasionally brackets - are best of 3 and two stocks, all of which keeps volatility high.
Now, the more your character can mitigate that volatility, the better their chances of getting the W.
Better characters have better tools which allow for better decision making and a more consistent mentality.
You have to make it all the way through the tournament, right? If you are playing a low tier character, you are working harder to win. You work harder to win, you spend more energy, and it will impact your mentality and decision making the deeper you go.
This is to say nothing of the fact that it may be necessary for you to dodge certain match-ups that necessitate your opponent to repeatedly make bad decisions. Or you need to rely on the possibility that you are better than your opponent to the point that it makes the MU doable.
But, that's essentially relying on luck.
This whole thing has to do with the possibility of a character winning at least 1 major.
This has nothing to do with consistency. If I was wagering on characters who could win
multiple majors, across years, this would be a short list.
So, with that said, what characters allow you to reduce game-to-game volatility and get the W more easily?
Note: having half a dozen or more losing MUs is fine, it just depends on how much your busted tools can swing the match with a few good plays.
These characters may only need to rely on bracket luck once to get a W.
These characters may need to rely on bracket luck two or three times in order to clutch a W.
These characters have high volatility, with either some mix of busted tools and bad MUs, or they are rage monsters. They could conceivably clutch a major, but would need the bracket, and several games to go their way several times.
Everyone else probably ain't winning a major.
Some questions I can see coming:
1. Link, still?
Yeah. Extremely favorable rage scaling, coupled with fear, means that a given player could swing his main disadvantaged MUs. None of the top tiers, outside of Cloud, and occasionally Sonic, can deal with getting hit by a randy rage Fair/Ftilt. He's gotta dodge Sheik, though. Fortunately, there aren't too many top level Sheiks.
2. Isn't this basically a tier list?
No. You don't have to be a top tier to win a major or, more importantly, get sponsored and make money. Ain't that many characters actually won a major, anyway.
3. Why is Marth so high?
Because Marth is controlled volatility, and he doesn't suffer from Marthritis as badly as he did in Melee.
5. What about Lucina?
Stop it.
6. Why is Corrin so high?
Because Corrin is dumb. More specifically, she has a collection of dumb tools that let her swing any game. As soon as Cosmos figures out how to deal with Fatality, he can stop these premature ends to his top 8 runs.
7. Greninja?
Not my fault his mains don't travel.
8. What about Pit?
Pit doesn't have enough broken stuff to let his players coast into Top 32/top 16. Pit sucks, basically.
9. DK, tho?
As long as HIKARU exists, there is always that threat, yes.
10. Why not just pick Bayo?
I'm working on that post, I swear to god.