Official 4BR Tier List V3 - Competitive Insight & Analysis

[HoSmash4]

I have a question about 3 stock.

Does rage not exist in that format?

 

[Rizen]

IMO 3 stock is better than 2. SSB4 is very prone to upsets and quick deaths.

 

[Bowserboy3]

Other things I enjoyed about Civil War:

• 4 instances of Rosalina in top 16: Dabuz, Kirihara, falln and Abadango.
• The overall character variety; Link!
• The upsets; the writer that wrote this script needs a goddamn medal.
• A fair bit of Lucina secondary usage.
• Samsora at 17th with Peach. Also cleanly beating Fatality 2-0 and Elegant 3-1 in the salty suite.
• ESAM's Samus.
• ESAM's Samus.
• ESAM's Samus.

By FAR my favourite tournament of Smash 4 history right now, and I am sure many others feel the same.

 

[MistressRemilia]

Breakdown of the 2GGC: Civil War event:

Soooo, Civil War. What an anti-theoritical event. Everything that i've mentionned in the past about the facts that even some of the non-top characters of this game can still be fairly threatening because of the fact that many of them are scary for reasons such as a good advantage state in any way ( Strong damage output, strong kill confirms, so on ) makes these characters not necessarily consistently good & thus able to create upsets & reach very high spots occasionally.
This tournament as a whole is a testament to the difficulty & understanding needed to try & rank the different characters of this game: Almost no character in this game has a commonly agreed spot aside from the Top 4 & maybe Bottom 4, becaus when creating a tier list, it is undeniable that, depending of the mindset of the player doing it, a character could end up higher or lower: I personally prioritize consistent peaks that can be reached, using the character's known struggles in matchups to think about whether or not, their tournament placement is a character breakout, that shows the character overcoming what was once considered a roadblock to this character, or simply a fortunate happening due to an easy bracket.

With that in mind, I'll present to you, a list of winners/losers from Civil War, what could happen to them in the near future, from the least to the most theoritical thoughts based on more or less big victories.

THE Winner of Civil War:

Falcon in this tournament did well above anyone's expectations, beating 3-0 what was,and may still be consiered one of the toughest Falcon matchups: Bayonetta. Beside showing that Falcon can indeed win this matchup,Fatality simply showcased just how fearsome Falcon's advantage state truly is, with quick damage racking through efficient starters that can be used in neutral, and insane kill potential through confirms. This also serves as yet another shocase of how much good movement matters, because that's basically a lot of Falcon's neutral. And if that can be taken that far, i have faith for the other characters that we've once considered to have a neutral too weak to truly be as good as they could be ( Meta Knight? )

Major winners of Civil War: ,,

It would be hypocritical for me to not place these characters as major winners of this tournament, even though i wouldn't consider their accomplishments as much of an accomplishment as Falcon's simply because their paths to success was slightly more easy than Falcon's, and there are less accomplishments to note, even though they're still impressive enough to not ignore them: Neither Kirihara or Dabuz had to face the more competent Clouds or Meta Knights, who didn't do good enough to reach them. Hikaru truly living up to the expectations with DK, showing that his outright insane advantage state wins him/lets him compete with many characters, including top threats like Sheik, and may be able to clutch out wins against his worse matchups like Rosalina & Fox, but it's already looking a bit harder. If you've been aware of who makes Link struggle the most, you'll understand that T was quite fortunate to fight the player he did get to fight, minus K9's Sheik, which was a good win for T. This showcase of Link being able to compete & having a few matchups against good characters that are quite good thanks to his pros such as strong raw damage output, strong punish game out of both raw neutral & advantage state with above average landing interception, edgeguarding, and grab combos. This tournament proved all of that, and backed up the theory Link mains were trying to push about Link's strengths being factors as to why he does good vs, say, Mewtwo.

You were close, maybe next time you'll get to shine some more:,,,,,

Here all the characters that made me reconsider their viability in the current metagame for the better throughout the tournament, even though their run may not have been as good as you'd expect. First off, i'll be talking about Ryu's case, which is the one i'd guess most people seeing this post are doubtful about: I'm not trying to discredit Locus' ( & Trela's ) run in any way, and more specifically, Locus over Shuton & Nairo was quite an impressive happening, but this doesn't act as a breakout for Ryu: Locus/Ryus are still no getting over the Rosalina matchup, who seems to become stronger in the metagame, and it may put a dent on Ryu's metagame in the future. Same for some zoners & Cloud, even though these seem a bit more doable than Rosalina. However, i have a feeling that the next few majors may allow Ryu to finally show us what he's truly capable of.
Sheik is kind of like, the incarnation of this category, with both Nietono going out 3-2 to characters with strong comeback capabilties & an advantage that's overall kind of overwhelming to Sheik in a way. This highlight a certain frailty of the character against these characters, but at the same time, not much else seems to truly make the character struggle all that much, and with more good play coming from not only Mr.R & VoiD, but also Kameme & Nietono's Sheik who are on the rise, this character could quickly turn out to be receiving the most consistently strong results out of any character, i'd say.
Watching the salty suite after Glutonny's fairly dissapointing, as well as knowing the player's capabilities & wins in the past made me reconsider that this week simply wasn't Wario's week but that it wasn't impossible for him to have a breakout in the near future, as shown by Glutonny's wins on AnTi & Kamemushi, and his close set with Javi's Cloud in the After Hours of Civil War. Much like Link, i do expect some kind of breakout to happen sooner or later, that should not be taken as Wario being a high tier consistently good character, but simply a threat that you can't sleep on, much like a lot of the cast.
ESAM's Samus taking out Ally was very impressive. Salem's Samus is also quite competent & has been able to take out Kome. I feel there's a stigma going on around Samus that's ruining the character. If these players were less scared of picking the non-top character for their own counterpicking good, they could do some damage with Samus. However, we'll need some more evidence to do any claims about the character truly being slept on.
John Numbers' set against 9B revived an old thought in my head about Wii Fit Trainer. This character's potency at catching people offguard through her sheer awkwardness goes beyond the realms of just not knowing the matchup imo. However, with awkwardness against the character comes awkwardness when playing the character. Thus, Wii Fit Trainer might just be a very hard character that could potentially be quite good given that despite the awkwardness of her neutral game & advantage state, they're quite good at both damage itself, and catching players offguard as they do not rely in regular means of punishing the opponent, or getting a read on them. I may sound overly theoritical about it, but i'm not hiding it, or pretending to be right.
Forgot about Fox in the original post, haha. But yeah, Larry's wins on Komorikiri & 9B, excellent players of what may just be the 2 hardest matchups of Fox, or at least among the harder matchups that Fox most likely doesn't win, is quite an impressive run. Larry may not have reached Top 8, but his run is respectable regardless.

So yeah, those are my thoughts on Civil War. There's so much more to cover, which is what i may do in the near future, but for now, ill stick to what i believe are the most interesting subjects to bring to the table.

 

[Bowserboy3]

Major winners of Civil War: ,,
You were close, maybe next time you'll get to shine some more:,,,,,

I don't know how you can include Ryu in the "maybe you'll get to shine some more". If anything, Locus getting top 8 with Ryu at an event of this calibre is a huge win for a character that is often shafted as overrated/not actually top tier.

 

[MistressRemilia]

I don't know how you can include Ryu in the "maybe you'll get to shine some more". If anything, Locus getting top 8 with Ryu at an event of this calibre is a huge win for a character that is often shafted as overrated/not actually top tier.

I personally do not consider that as much of a major win as Link's, DK's or Rosalina's because Ryu has been able to reach 9th at a couple tournament, and Locus has shown to be a very competent player already. His run was on the better side of things, yes, but it isn't as much of an impressive feat as the 4 other characters simply because it doesn't really act as a breakout result for Ryu when you look deeper into what Locus has done to reach 7th, at least in my opinion.
Look deeper into both the wins & losses, and you'll realize that despite reaching Top 8 for the first time, this placement hasn't been that influencial to Ryu, his theory & matchups: The struggle against Rosalina is still here, and nothing advances that the character can efficiently get past Cloud, and some zoners like Megaman or Villager.

 

[Minordeth]

Civil War was basically, "High Tier Doesn't Mean Low Tier: the Movie."

Also, it seems like Scizor had some time with T, so I wouldn't be surprised T eventually come back with the more optimized Link combos and set-ups. I never saw this man bomb toss once.

 

[TheGoodGuava]

It's a personal rule of mine not to put Lucario on matchup charts, because his design doesn't lend itself to matchup numbers when the game can literally turn in a single hit.

I understand that and use it for most characters but I believe there are few exceptions to that rule. Characters like Ike are just straight up bad matchups for him because they have everything he hates. Link has everything he hates but with projectile shenanagains

 

[Rizen]

I understand that and use it for most characters but I believe there are few exceptions to that rule. Characters like Ike are just straight up bad matchups for him because they have everything he hates. Link has everything he hates but with projectile shenanagains

IMO Link/Lucario is even. Link doesn't have Ike's CQC game, especially the frame 4 jabs. Once Lucario breaks the zoning, he's more dangerous to Link than Ike. Lucario's aura spheres have one big advantage over Link's projectiles: they can kill. Link has to play carefully not to get frame trapped. Getting off the ledge is just hell. Aura charge>Usmash is a potent landing and kill option.
On the other hand Link has the kill power to seal stocks. Link generally zones better and outranges Lucario except when aura really kicks in. Link's Utilt is an amazing move and Link has many ways to kill from bomb combos, Dthrow combos, Bair 1>reverse ground spin attack, some Nair stuff but I'm not sure if it true combos on Lucario.
Both characters can kill early and have their own strong areas. The MU boils down to who makes better reads.

 

[blackghost]

I didn't get to see the fatality Zach and fatality t sets. Both set counts are intriguing. Was it just a case of momentum for fatality? I thought facing fatality would be good for either t or zach.
Good win for dabuz love it when the in game adjustments reward smart players.
I think I actually hate dk now.
Shiek is overall the loser of this tournament. Too many characters need one opening in neutral to kill and while on paper no one should win neutral vs her in practice players are human.
Great tournament outside of a few marvel tournaments this was the most stacked event I've ever seen. As a result I don't put too much stock in the players that placed lower (well most of them need to watch zero and ally).

 

[Emblem Lord]

I don't know how you can include Ryu in the "maybe you'll get to shine some more". If anything, Locus getting top 8 with Ryu at an event of this calibre is a huge win for a character that is often shafted as overrated/not actually top tier.

He got rocked by Rosa. It actually RE-CONFIRMS that Ryu has matches that he cannot get over with pure skill alone.

 

[Frihetsanka]

IMO 3 stock is better than 2. SSB4 is very prone to upsets and quick deaths.

Most of Europe, which used to fairly consistently run 3 stock, is moving towards a 2 stock format right now. I don't think 3 stock has much of a future if not even Europe wants to use it anymore.

 

[Man Li Gi]

Fr fr, Zack killed himself 2/6 stocks he had in the set.

Anyway, this marks the second event with Rosalina winning in two weeks. Not doing any deeper analysis, but just saying facts.

 

[Bowserboy3]

Most of Europe, which used to fairly consistently run 3 stock, is moving towards a 2 stock format right now. I don't think 3 stock has much of a future if not even Europe wants to use it anymore.

Most of the UK for example has started to switch to 2 stocks as opposed to 3, just to chip into this comment a bit.

However, not all of the UK is running the new stage ruleset, and that varies by region it seems. My area for example still has Duck Hunt as a stage. However, I can't see this lasting for much longer either.

One thing that I do know is that in most places that I have been to that have had Duck Hunt banned, they didn't have Battlefield and Dreamland joined together because they didn't believe it was fair enough to join the two stages together, which is interesting to note.

 

[PJB]

Not a regular poster here, I really just love reading the thread to see other people's thoughts on the meta. But I have to say from a viewing perspective, Civil War was without a doubt one of the best tournaments I've ever seen. All the upsets, all the hype sets, all the exposure for players that I haven't seen much of (T, Hikaru, etc.). Well done by 2GG, you guys are amazing for the community, keep it up!

Also, could not be happier for Dabuz. We are all focused on falcon link and DK (and rightly so, awesome job by those players!) but tremendous credit to Dabuz for being the 1 accepted "elite top" player who did not get upset and won every set he played. I fully expected fatality to take the tournament once he reached grand finals with that much momentum, AND he just beat Kirihara, AND he took game 1. Congrats Dabuz, you earned it

 

[~ Gheb ~]

I can't believe people are seriously arguing Falcon or Link to be the biggest winners of Civil War - that title undisputedly belongs to Rosalina. Wins the most stacked tournament in smash 4 history, places in top 5 twice, in top 12 three times and no less than 4 times in top 16. That alone is insane but let's not forget that the guy who won a major category 3 tournament a week ago with Rosalina is not the same person who won Civil War - Rosalina won two major tournaments within a week through two different players. That achievement alone can hardly be overstated. Now keep in mind that the people Kirihara lost to are the same people that placed 1st and 2nd respectively - one of these sets was a ditto and the other was against Fatality who is known to give Rosalina players a hard time [remember when he 3-0'd dabuz?]. For all we know Kirihara could've the whole thing just as much had he not happened to run into two of his four most dangerous opponents [the third and fourth being Nairo and Ito]. And also keep in mind that falln wasn't necessarily a player people would've expected to place as high as 13th, not in a tournament this stacked.

Fatality's and T's performances are incredible in their own right but if the history of smash 4 teaches us one thing then it's that consistency should be given more attention to than anything else. That's why the title of second biggest winner of Civil War has to go to ZSS for me. To be the only other character that appears twice within top 12 already invalidates the tier list not even a full month after its release - I don't even wanna know why people put such an obvious top 5 character outside of top 10. There is no legitimate justification for such a blatant error, when the best players and smartest heads of the community come together to make a tier list then something like that should never happen.

Even if Link and Falcon don't manage to replicate their performances at Civil War in the future they still did something to improve their reputation. But at the same time I must urge for people not to go overboards with the assumptions. For all the great things T managed to pull off we should not gloss over the fact that his winner bracket run had him play against Fox [NAKAT], Lucario [Tsu-], Mewtwo [Abadango] and Captain Falcon [Fatality]. Not exactly a death-bracket for Link! Hell, I could see an appropriately skilled Doctor Mario possibly making his way through that bracket. None of these aren't manageable. And was it ever in question that T has the skill to do it? At least by the time he nearly knocked out Ally at Frostbite it should've been obvious that he does - and if you actively follow the japanese scene you probably knew even earlier than that.
I find Fatality's bracket run even more impressive - he beat Komorikiri, Nairo and Kirihara and then double 3-0d CaptainZack and T back to back. Was this a breakthrough tournament for Falcon [Pichi has already won a big tournament in Japan where he beat T in GF - go figure!]? Was this Fatality's ultimate breakthrough as a player? Was he lucky this time facing generally favorable opponents like Kirihara or has he often been unlucky in the past running into people like Larry a couple of times that knocked him out early? That is something we'll see over time, for now I'm just happy for Fatality to do this well. I also heard he beat Trela which I've always thought to be a pretty lame matchup to get.

We've often talked about bracket luck but what we haven't talked about are the odds of actually getting affected by bracket luck in smash 4 - since the roster is so big you're just somewhat likely by default to dodge the absolute worst, most grimy matchups and run into something more manageable. Shulk may get "invalidated" by Fox but as long as he doesn't actually run into a competent Fox -and that's actually a fairly unlikely constellation anyway- he's still mostly limited by how far his player can take him. It's not like Brawl where as Diddy you have to have your **** tanked by Snake beyond 200% and pull off a clutch win only to run into two Ice Climbers back to back after that. That's something that gives a lot of characters a chance to do well [in addition to smash 4 just being fairly well balanced] even if they're not considered very good. Even Link is rightfully regarded a pretty mediocre character and he can still do well.

Ryu is another winner showing up once in top 8, twice in top 24 and some amazing wins under his belt: Samsora, Shuton and Nairo have all lost to him. Not something that a lot of people saw coming. The downward trend for Ryu has probably stopped for now.
Luigi and Shulk are minor winners, both placing 2x 33rd. That's a great achievement for characters of their standards, especially Shulk. With two players doing this well for each character respectively it's fairly safe to assume that it's not just a fluke either. Congrats to the people that contributed towards pushing these characters, I know the Shulk community put an assload of work into their character to get him somewhere.
Fox and Sheik have remained consistent in a crazy tournament full of upsets. Not only have both characters once against found their way into the top 12 but they also did something about their reputation of being carried by their few flagship players with not too much behind it to back it up. Even with Void and Kameme underperforming by their own standards Sheik managed to get 6 different players into top 50. Fox has 5 entries in top 50 all of which are solo except NAKAT.

Finally, Bayonetta had a very strong showing getting a 4th, a 13th and a 25th place. Nothing unexpected but when is she going to prove that she is the best character in the game? I've heard it too many times now.

DK is an abomination.

 

[Skeeter Mania]

Even Texas is currently running a 2-stock format.

I can't believe people are seriously arguing Falcon or Link to be the biggest winners of Civil War - that title undisputedly belongs to Rosalina. Wins the most stacked tournament in smash 4 history, places in top 5 twice, in top 12 three times and no less than 4 times in top 16. That alone is insane but let's not forget that the guy who won a major category 3 tournament a week ago with Rosalina is not the same person who won Civil War - Rosalina won two major tournaments within a week through two different players. That achievement alone can hardly be overstated. Now keep in mind that the people Kirihara lost to are the same people that placed 1st and 2nd respectively - one of these sets was a ditto and the other was against Fatality who is known to give Rosalina players a hard time [remember when he 3-0'd dabuz?]. For all we know Kirihara could've the whole thing just as much had he not happened to run into two of his four most dangerous opponents [the third and fourth being Nairo and Ito]. And also keep in mind that falln wasn't necessarily a player people would've expected to place as high as 13th, not in a tournament this stacked.

Fatality's and T's performances are incredible in their own right but if the history of smash 4 teaches us one thing then it's that consistency should be given more attention to than anything else. That's why the title of second biggest winner of Civil War has to go to ZSS for me. To be the only other character that appears twice within top 12 already invalidates the tier list not even a full month after its release - I don't even wanna know why people put such an obvious top 5 character outside of top 10. There is no legitimate justification for such a blatant error, when the best players and smartest heads of the community come together to make a tier list then something like that should never happen.

Even if Link and Falcon don't manage to replicate their performances at Civil War in the future they still did something to improve their reputation. But at the same time I must urge for people not to go overboards with the assumptions. For all the great things T managed to pull off we should not gloss over the fact that his winner bracket run had him play against Fox [NAKAT], Lucario [Tsu-], Mewtwo [Abadango] and Captain Falcon [Fatality]. Not exactly a death-bracket for Link! Hell, I could see an appropriately skilled Doctor Mario possibly making his way through that bracket. None of these aren't manageable. And was it ever in question that T has the skill to do it? At least by the time he nearly knocked out Ally at Frostbite it should've been obvious that he does - and if you actively follow the japanese scene you probably knew even earlier than that.
I find Fatality's bracket run even more impressive - he beat Komorikiri, Nairo and Kirihara and then double 3-0d CaptainZack and T back to back. Was this a breakthrough tournament for Falcon [Pichi has already won a big tournament in Japan where he beat T in GF - go figure!]? Was this Fatality's ultimate breakthrough as a player? Was he lucky this time facing generally favorable opponents like Kirihara or has he often been unlucky in the past running into people like Larry a couple of times that knocked him out early? That is something we'll see over time, for now I'm just happy for Fatality to do this well. I also heard he beat Trela which I've always thought to be a pretty lame matchup to get.

We've often talked about bracket luck but what we haven't talked about are the odds of actually getting affected by bracket luck in smash 4 - since the roster is so big you're just somewhat likely by default to dodge the absolute worst, most grimy matchups and run into something more manageable. Shulk may get "invalidated" by Fox but as long as he doesn't actually run into a competent Fox -and that's actually a fairly unlikely constellation anyway- he's still mostly limited by how far his player can take him. It's not like Brawl where as Diddy you have to have your **** tanked by Snake beyond 200% and pull off a clutch win only to run into two Ice Climbers back to back after that. That's something that gives a lot of characters a chance to do well [in addition to smash 4 just being fairly well balanced] even if they're not considered very good. Even Link is rightfully regarded a pretty mediocre character and he can still do well.

Ryu is another winner showing up once in top 8, twice in top 24 and some amazing wins under his belt: Samsora, Shuton and Nairo have all lost to him. Not something that a lot of people saw coming. The downward trend for Ryu has probably stopped for now.
Luigi and Shulk are minor winners, both placing 2x 33rd. That's a great achievement for characters of their standards, especially Shulk. With two players doing this well for each character respectively it's fairly safe to assume that it's not just a fluke either. Congrats to the people that contributed towards pushing these characters, I know the Shulk community put an assload of work into their character to get him somewhere.
Fox and Sheik have remained consistent in a crazy tournament full of upsets. Not only have both characters once against found their way into the top 12 but they also did something about their reputation of being carried by their few flagship players with not too much behind it to back it up. Even with Void and Kameme underperforming by their own standards Sheik managed to get 6 different players into top 50. Fox has 5 entries in top 50 all of which are solo except NAKAT.

Finally, Bayonetta had a very strong showing getting a 4th, a 13th and a 25th place. Nothing unexpected but when is she going to prove that she is the best character in the game? I've heard it too many times now.

DK is an abomination.

So who would you say were the biggest losers?

 

[Floor]

Other things I enjoyed about Civil War:

• 4 instances of Rosalina in top 16: Dabuz, Kirihara, falln and Abadango.
• The overall character variety; Link!
• The upsets; the writer that wrote this script needs a goddamn medal.
• A fair bit of Lucina secondary usage.
• Samsora at 17th with Peach. Also cleanly beating Fatality 2-0 and Elegant 3-1 in the salty suite.
• ESAM's Samus.
• ESAM's Samus.
• ESAM's Samus.

By FAR my favourite tournament of Smash 4 history right now, and I am sure many others feel the same.

This ^

Plus

• That crew battle being a nail biter towards the end until Komo swept it up.
• The tweets and the savagery; ZeRo going all "I'm so done right now" on Twitter
• Link in general; similar to Tsu back at Frostbite, T showed us what Link has to offer.

More broadly, I think T and Fatality proved that any character (possible bar on like Puff and Ganon) has what it takes to do well in the right hands on an international Uber-major platform.

 

[Yonder]

Nietono went full sheik to my Knowledge. Also can we look at the fact Rosa has won TWO majors within a single month? Remember when dabuz wanted to drop this character????

Let's face it, when you have a character yet that can't be grabbed essentially due to Luma...That neuters 90% of the top tiers, who have grabs as the center of their gameplay (Diddy damage rack, ZSS kills,

This ^

Plus

• That crew battle being a nail biter towards the end until Komo swept it up.
• The tweets and the savagery; ZeRo going all "I'm so done right now" on Twitter
• Link in general; similar to Tsu back at Frostbite, T showed us what Link has to offer.

More broadly, I think T and Fatality proved that any character (possible bar on like Puff and Ganon) has what it takes to do well in the right hands on an international Uber-major platform.

On one hand, Ganondorf beat a fairly competent Bowser, showing mostly how potent he is offstage with last stock flame choke and edgeguarding with aerials.

On the other hand, he received a beating worst than Videl vs Spopovich (Bizzaro vs Mars) not landing a single hit in the last game.

I'm torn on him. Leaning more towards that he's 0:100 against certain characters though.

Ok 5:95. Rage exists.

 

[my_T]

I love how nobody has mentioned Mario as one of if not the biggest loser at Civil War

Also, people need to stop jumping the gun. Way too soon to say the meta is shifting to a meta revolving around strong advantage states. If anything, the meta will continue to revolve around neutral but having a strong advantage will certainly help. The most dominant character at Civil War being Rosa also happens to have one of the best neutrals in the game. DK, Link, Ryu, and Lucario did well but these kinds of performances are not typical of these characters, especially DK, and Link. I won't be changing my mind until they reach a similar level of consistency of characters like Sheik, Diddy, Sonic, etc.

Bayo's performance was slightly disappointing with Zach's 2 SD's against Fatality. I hope people don't put too much weight into that set.

ESAM should've have went all Samus vs HIKARU, likely would have won. Pikachu can do it but Samus was the safer route.

 

[blackghost]

I love how nobody has mentioned Mario as one of if not the biggest loser at Civil War

Also, people need to stop jumping the gun. Way too soon to say the meta is shifting to a meta revolving around strong advantage states. If anything, the meta will continue to revolve around neutral but having a strong advantage will certainly help. The most dominant character at Civil War being

Bayo's performance was slightly disappointing with Zach's 2 SD's against Fatality. I hope people don't put too much weight into that set.

Overall bayo did roughly what I expected her to do by the players who each play her. But in termsome of meta shift I think we are seeing a change in howhich Players are approaching neutral. Players seemless inclined to allow neutral to reset and want to push advantage harder. Outside of dabuz most of the high placing players we categorize as aggro. In an event like this that is significant I feel.

 

[Iron Kraken]

We just had two major tournaments in a row that have been won by two different Rosa mains. Both of these tournaments also saw another Rosa finish in the top 5, with other good Rosa placings down the board.

I haven't posted here in a long time, but man, I had to return in the wake of my theory about Rosalina seemingly coming to fruition. My theory always was - Rosa is actually the best character in the game, despite what anyone says, and the only thing that holds her back is that there are so few great players willing to give her a shot.

But as it turns out... That's something that can be said about many characters in this game - the only thing that holds them back is a lack of great players willing to give them a shot. How many great players have devoted themselves to Link and Falcon in this game? Almost none, because almost everyone who plays this game seriously doesn't want to feel like they're wasting their time. But this game's balance is so good and so many characters have the potential to get it done if the right players invest the time into them.

Lucario and Samus also continue to show how good they are. I know Samus hasn't had any major results to speak of quite yet but I think that day is coming in the not-too-distant future. Donkey Kong also had a nice tournament, but in my opinion he's still not solo viable (Rosa / DK is an impossible matchup for one thing). ZSS and Ryu continue to make a strong case for top tier status.

But going back to Rosa. Rosa is just so good.

Kirihara is pretty much proof that Rosa goes no worse than even against Diddy. I remember hearing about the time ZeRo went to Japan last year for some practice. He said that Kirihara was by far his hardest opponent and that over the course of 30+ games they played in the Rosa/Diddy match up Kirihara won 2/3rds of them.

It was easy for people to dismiss that as "just friendlies," but then Kirihara backed that up by being the first person to ever beat ZeRo in both Winner's Finals and Grand Finals without dropping a set against him.

We also must say that Dabuz has now established himself as the most consistent Smash 4 player of all time with Rosalina. Sure, ZeRo is the best, but does anyone really think that he needed Diddy to be in his current position? I for one don't. On the other hand, I have much love for Dabuz, but I am not convinced he would be having the success that he is in this game if Rosa didn't exist. This is not to take anything away from Dabuz. He is an incredible player and I have no doubt he would be great even if Rosa didn't exist, just as he had success in Brawl with Olimar. But sometimes it takes a great player finding the perfect character fit to really make something special. Rosalina is just so damn good when she's in the hands of someone who knows how to use her.

Anyway, I still think Bayo is the best character in the game because I like to consider the theory behind the character and not just the results. I have always thought Diddy was overrated (since the nerfs in April of 2015) simply on account of the fact that ZeRo uses him. Diddy is still great / top tier / etc., just not quite as good as people make him out to be because of the ZeRo effect.

When you consider both results and theory, I think Rosa has a strong claim to being the second best character in the game - only trailing Bayo in my opinion, on account of the theory.

 

[Ziodyne 21]

I love how nobody has mentioned Mario as one of if not the biggest loser at Civil War

Also, people need to stop jumping the gun. Way too soon to say the meta is shifting to a meta revolving around strong advantage states. If anything, the meta will continue to revolve around neutral but having a strong advantage will certainly help. The most dominant character at Civil War being Rosa also happens to have one of the best neutrals in the game. DK, Link, Ryu, and Lucario did well but these kinds of performances are not typical of these characters, especially DK, and Link. I won't be changing my mind until they reach a similar level of consistency of characters like Sheik, Diddy, Sonic, etc.

Bayo's performance was slightly disappointing with Zach's 2 SD's against Fatality. I hope people don't put too much weight into that set.

ESAM should've have went all Samus vs HIKARU, likely would have won. Pikachu can do it but Samus was the safer route.

Well to put things in prespective. Bayo did better at Civil War then just about every currently established top-tier character bar Rosalina and maybe ZSS.

Salem was the only Bayo that kinda dissapointed in my opinion, He just seemed to be really off during his match with Shuton on day 2 and just seemed to clock out at day 3. He literally only woke up minutes before his match.

It really does seem like the meta is beginning to shift away from playing patient and trying to win neutral and just going aggro to make the most out of character advantage and take stocks early as possible.

 

[adom4]

Let's face it, when you have a character yet that can't be grabbed essentially due to Luma...That neuters 90% of the top tiers, who have grabs as the center of their gameplay (Diddy damage rack, ZSS kills,


On one hand, Ganondorf beat a fairly competent Bowser, showing mostly how potent he is offstage with last stock flame choke and edgeguarding with aerials.

On the other hand, he received a beating worst than Videl vs Spopovich (Bizzaro vs Mars) not landing a single hit in the last game.

I'm torn on him. Leaning more towards that he's 0:100 against certain characters though.

Ok 5:95. Rage exists.

He doesn't have any MU near that bad anymore after the Bayo nerfs (prepatch Bayo was pretty much unwinnabble against any Bayo that knows how to breathe), he still has his fair share of really bad MUs but nothing like say IC/Sheik in brawl.

 

[Pippin (Peregrin Took)]

When I checked in to the stream this weekend I might have seen Bayonetta maybe once or twice. I was nervous that everyone was going to pick her up after the new tier list ranked her as #1 but I appreciate the character diversity I'm still seeing

 

[ARISTOS]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

 

[|RK|]

He got rocked by Rosa. It actually RE-CONFIRMS that Ryu has matches that he cannot get over with pure skill alone.

Tbf, this is Ryu's first time within top 8. Second, I wouldn't put it past Locus to study the MU and come back stronger next time. Finally... the biggest winner of this tournament is the same way, being one of the few top tiers with a STRONG counterpick. I'd say this shows Ryu has room to grow.

 

[Emblem Lord]

Ryu does have room to grow.

But growth does not necessarily translate to winning more matches.

Growth will not reprogram hitboxes.

 

[Heracr055]

^We'll see what happens for the Rosa MU in the future. It's definitely tough as nails for Ryu. Tbh it was interesting how Locus was dealing with Luma with bairs even though it didn't work out

 

[TDK]

It's worth noting that in the Area Locus lives in, there aren't exactly strong Rosas. The best one uses her as a Secondary only.

 

[Iron Kraken]

The Rosa / Ryu matchup is laughably easy from the Rosa perspective. Ryu can't land or recover. All of Rosa's moves have multiple hit boxes. Rosa has no reason to be right in Ryu's face and get Shoryukened when she can just space Ryu out with Luma.

No Ryu is going to beat Dabuz or Kirihara right now. You're better off having a secondary for that match up.

 

[Bowserboy3]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

I wonder what this means.

Surely it can't be...

 

[TDK]

I wonder what this means.

Surely it can't be...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCxQUNhtp50

Should be somewhere in here. He says he won't be leaving Texas for Smash after Civil War, or something along those lines.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Let's face it, when you have a character yet that can't be grabbed essentially due to Luma...That neuters 90% of the top tiers, who have grabs as the center of their gameplay (Diddy damage rack, ZSS kills,


On one hand, Ganondorf beat a fairly competent Bowser, showing mostly how potent he is offstage with last stock flame choke and edgeguarding with aerials.

On the other hand, he received a beating worst than Videl vs Spopovich (Bizzaro vs Mars) not landing a single hit in the last game.

I'm torn on him. Leaning more towards that he's 0:100 against certain characters though.

Ok 5:95. Rage exists.

I might be in a minority on this but I honestly think Ganondorf does really dang well against other heavies. Like some of his better match-ups are against other heavy characters since he can exploit his advantages a lot easier than against other characters.

 

[Betatech]

Looking at the results right now cloud had absolutely noone placing anywhere relevant from what i can see. I know some players werent there, (like for example Tweek who wasnt there to my knowledge) but its interesting that absolutely noone near the top end of the bracket was playing cloud

Except doubles where its the complete opposite


EDIT : This is wrong ignore this

 

[Emblem Lord]

Just to follow-up Ryu's issue vs Rosa is not getting rid of Luma. The issue is due to hitlag modifier it makes it easy for Rosa to smack Ryu when he smacks Luma. She also has the specs to just avoid him until Luma comes back.

Add that his recovery is just bait for her and easily janked, and you have yourself a ticket to pain city.

 

[Skeeter Mania]

Looking at the results right now cloud had absolutely noone placing anywhere relevant from what i can see. I know some players werent there, (like for example Tweek who wasnt there to my knowledge) but its interesting that absolutely noone near the top end of the bracket was playing cloud

Except doubles where its the complete opposite

This is, of course, assuming you count anywhere below 16 as "irrelevant".

 

[Betatech]

This is, of course, assuming you count anywhere below 16 as "irrelevant".

My apologies i didnt give it a thorough enough look before i posted, i can see komorokiri and tweek now thanks for correcting me

 

[RonNewcomb]

I didn't get to see the fatality Zach and fatality t sets. Both set counts are intriguing. Was it just a case of momentum for fatality? I thought facing fatality would be good for either t or zach.

It was good for T. He defeated Fatality the first time somewhat solidly. But then he faced Dabuz, who promptly stole his soul, and T didn't win a game for the rest of the tourney, even in Fatality's runback with him.

I do hope Dabuz returned that soul to him afterward. T needs that to compete.

it seems like Scizor had some time with T, so I wouldn't be surprised T eventually come back with the more optimized Link combos and set-ups. I never saw this man bomb toss once.

I've never found bombsliding / glide tossing terribly useful for Link. When it comes to ATs, the order of importance is more like:

1) Pivot F-Tilt. It's overhead arcing box makes this a great anti-approach tool for ground- and SH-based approaches. Much like Villager's bowling ball, most of its inactive frames are front-loaded in the startup, so as long as the move comes out, the range, blockstun, and recovery conspire to make it pretty darn safe. Also might "accidentally" kill or at least send them flying.

2) AD-tether cancel. All tether chars can cancel their airdodge with tether-to-ledge, but when combined with Link's fastest-in-game FF speed, this can get him from high off-stage to on-stage in an eyeblink, intangible most of the way.

3) Arrow lock. "Jab-locking" with arrows can net you some on-stage kills via dash attack. Unlike a lot of other lock attempts it's possible to fail it safely. (Meaning, Link isn't left in CQC range with his pants down.)

4) Zair-less Z-drop. T used it twice, once connecting and killing Nakat's Lucina with it. Very strong against straight-vertical recoveries whose hurtbox does not shark. (Bayo's Witch Twist, when sharking from beneath, exposes her hurtbox as well. Simply pivot F-tilt that for great justice, no Z-drop tricks required.)

Not that you should avoid learning bombsliding tricks -- every little bit helps -- but since Link, like Marth, has a tendency to "accidentally" kill people while playing his normal neutral game, fundamentals really are king, and pivot f-tilt is fundamental.

Not listed: soft-thrown bombs. I feel the usefulness of the unexploded bomb on the ground greatly diminishes with MU experience. Those things are a danger to everyone, and opponents can scoop them up and toss them back if they wish. Or just run past them, completely ignoring them.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

So who would you say were the biggest losers?

Marth, Cloud, Mario and Diddy Kong - probably in that order.