The day has come.
Before I even start this post, I'd first like to thank the Brazilian Smash community for helping me make this post as rich as it'll probably be by the end, and most notably the player Takao.
I hope this will spark some interesting discussion, and I legit hope that people will read this entire post and try to counter-argue my points, so in the end we all come out smarter.
I will start off by saying this: I have absolutely nothing against Marth and Marth players, and at the end of the day, I do believe Marth is a better character than Lucina while also believing there is probably a gap between them, of which I estimate should be around 5 to 9 spots in a tier list. Lucina's theory is roughly as good as Marth while being an extremely good character in her own right, but lack of actual showing of her theory and next to nonexistant tournament results other than fairly recent ones (thanks, Kogarasuma!) to me make it hard to place her next to Marth, but she's also too similar to Marth while also simultaneously being too good to be place so far apart from him. Taking those into consideration, I came up with the "5 to 9 spots" theory on my own about a month ago. On my current tier list (which I might show someday), I actually have them both separated by 8 spots (Marth is 15th, Lucina is 23rd), if you want to get an idea of how I rate them.
Anyway, this is it. My "thesis" about Lucina.
1. RANGE
First, I'd like to start by the point that's been most argued about Marth vs. Lucina in this thread before: Range. I know I've done
so many posts regarding this already, but I wouldn't be talking about this if I hadn't got anything new to say, but then again, it wouldn't make sense for me to just make new points without presenting the old ones.
Marth's range when compared to Lucina is, by all intents and purposes, the exact same. The main point I've always seen that supports the theory that Marth somehow has always more range than Lucina is their sword range, let's take a look:
At first this might seem convincing enough proof, and first time I saw it, I must admit I didn't know how to counter this myself. But then, remembering just how inaccurate these kind of models tend to be, I started having my own doubts.
I decided to test their range, and measuring distance through the pixels in Duck Hunt, I was able to find out the range in their grounded moves was, indeed, the exact same. It's just that Lucina's hitboxes extend far beyond her sword. and with Shield Breaker especially and arguably most infamously.
Here's the first example I found that shows how long ahead it hits, don't judge me. There's swearing in the video so I can't link it directly.
There you go, even with a neat little time freeze for you to see. Believe me when I say that it actually hits much farther ahead than that.
But here are some other examples of how much her hitbox hits farther than her sword in WebM form:
Lastly, if you don't believe these, the nail in coffin is analysis of the hitboxes themselves. When we do that...
...we find the exact same thing.
I hope none of this is news to you. If this is, I hope you've atleast been educated. However, this is where most people would shift tone and say Marth has better
vertical range than Lucina. I will admit I probably was one of the first ones that started spreading this word around in this thread, or atleast I was one of the first I saw doing that. I am not wrong in this, obviously. Marth has very slightly more vertical range that makes him able to unreliably hit people on Battlefield's platforms with his Side Smash and Jab 1, much like I show in my video:
But this made me wonder: Can Lucina
really not do this as well?...
Yes. Yes she can. I was going to post some WebMs here of me doing just that, but I'm afraid my time is limited, nowadays.
Marth actually
can hit people on Battlefield's platforms less unreliably than Lucina (The average amount of times I had to try to clip someone with Marth's was 12, the average for Lucina's was
30, and she could also do this against less characters). This does show that the difference is there, but is more negligible than you think, and if you already thought it was negligible, it's even more than that.
2. NEUTRAL GAME
Something I have always heard quite a lot is that thanks to the tipper, Marth has a better neutral game than Lucina. One of the biggest points I have heard in the past about Marth being better than Lucina in this regard is his tippered moves being safer on shield than Lucina's. I will admit this is also a point I didn't really know how to counter, but I will once again thank Takao for bringing up some interesting points to light. First, this is a chart he made regarding their Shield Safety in frames:
(Marth's data here is tipper/sourspot)
As we can see, their Shield Safety is actually mostly the same, with almost negligible frame differences, with Lucina's moves even being as effective as Marth's Tipper on shield. Marth's Tipper does have more hitlag and shield pushback, and he has that going for him. That can often make your enemy
whiff his punish and make you get the feeling it is somehow safer on shield when in reality it's kind of not, it's just as unsafe but the timing is a bit different. Not only that, the incleased stun actually gives your enemy a bit of time to Shield DI his way back in to neglect the pushback. Yes, Shield DI, which is something I will admit I hadn't even heard of properly until a couple of weeks ago when I found the Beefy Smash Doods video on Shield Locks. If you'd like to watch it, here it is:
3. DAMAGE OUTPUT AND KNOCK-OUT POWER
Something that was being widely discussed earlier in this thread is Marth's Aerials vs. Lucina's Aerials. Firstly, let's hark back to that thread I link all the time,
the one comparing Marcina's KO potential. Quoting myself:
AERIALS
Neutral Air (Second hit):
vs.
: 116% (tippered) 189% (non-tippered)
vs.
: 136% (tippered) 220% (non-tippered)
vs.
: 155% (tippered) 251% (non-tippered)
vs.
: 154%
vs.
: 178%
vs.
: 204%
Forward Air:
vs.
: 130% (tippered) 209% (non-tippered)
vs.
: 152% (tippered) 243% (non-tippered)
vs.
: 174% (tippered) 277% (non-tippered)
vs.
: 162%
vs.
: 188%
vs.
: 215%
Back Air:
vs.
: 112% (tippered) 176% (non-tippered)
vs.
: 132% (tippered) 204% (non-tippered)
vs.
: 152% (tippered) 234% (non-tippered)
vs.
: 134%
vs.
: 156%
vs.
: 179%
Up Air:
vs.
: 108% (tippered) 159% (non-tippered)
vs.
: 136% (tippered) 198% (non-tippered)
vs.
: 152% (tippered) 221% (non-tippered)
vs.
: 132%
vs.
: 166%
vs.
: 184%
We can actually observe a bit of a difference. Marth's tippered aerials do KO a fair bit earlier while Lucina's atleast always KO at realistic percents especially when compared to Marth's Sourspots. But, taking into account I tested those values center stage, all of them still KO somewhat early. Lucina's still have quite a bit of power while not requiring nearly as much microspacing, and something to knock someone out, that can be crucial. I actually have KOd a Captain Falcon once at 100% of the top of Battlefielf with a rageless, fresh Up Air from Lucina. There's also the time where I once KOd a Sheik with a stray Back Air at 80%. There was also the time where this didn't KO me:
Please play no mind with how I was playing this match it was very laggy. I know I still have a lot to complain about my skill, but DI isn't really one of them. Even then, maybe we might be overrating how strong Marth's aerials can be when compared to Lucie's. When it comes to edgeguards, some people are acting like Lucina's aerials are never gonna KO anyone offstage, which is funny considering how often I've gotten early KOs with Lucina's Neutral Air offstage. Even though I do still get a lot of blast KOs, you don't even need to knock someone out with the aerial alone for the edgeguard to be successful. Even in the odd chance your target does survive, a lot of times they're way to far to realistically come back with most characters. Offstage, I've bopped people at 70% with stage 1 rage Neutral Air in the past.
Moving on from Aerials, let's go Tilts. Marth's Side Tilt here is clearly a much better choice for KOing, but my mate Takao actually brought up an interesting point I had never thought of in the past: Staleness. As early as Marth's tippered Side Tilt may or may not knock you out, both of the characters need to use their Side Tilt often to cover ground, space and make people approaching with shorthops get off of you. This means that even though Marth's Side Tilt might get you early in theory, it's never gonna be as early as you might wish in actual practice, and you also need to take into account you actually need to space around to get the tipper, something not every player and character is gonna exactly give you the luxury of, and Marth's
Sour Side Tilt, which, by the way, exists, isn't exactly your friend.
Forward/Side Tilt:
vs.
: 127% (tippered) 248% (non-tippered)
vs.
: 147% (tippered) 288% (non-tippered)
vs.
: 169% (tippered) 329% (non-tippered)
Both of their Up Tilts are good. They can be used as a fast anti-air, combo option, a KO option and something to hit people in your back. Curiously, Lucina's deals more damage on the back hit than on the front hit. I've actually seen both of them KO with this move at reasonable percents, with Marth's Tippered Up Tilt obviously getting people earlier. I'd say Marth's is better here, due to some of the combos I've seen he pull off, here (though Lucina can still pull off most), along with Tippeered Up Tilt being a very good and actually mostly viable option.
Smashes. Lucina's Up Smash is... basically strictly better.
Up Smash: (Note: Tipper is N/A against enemies on the floor)
vs.
- Uncharged: 58% (tippered), 93% (non-tippered)
- Fully Charged: 30% (tippered, 59% (non-tippered)
vs.
- Uncharged: 76% (tippered), 123% (non-tippered)
- Fully Charged: 45% (tippered), 78% (non-tippered)
vs.
- Uncharged: 86% (tippered), 134% (non-tippered)
- Fully Charged: 52% (tippered), 91% (non-tippered)
vs.
- Uncharged: 85%
- Fully Charged: 52%
vs.
- Uncharged: 109%
- Fully Charged: 72%
vs.
- Uncharged: 125%
- Fully Charged: 80%
I have only seen about 4 tippered Up Smashes in my time. They're extremely situational, very finnicky and pretty hard to set up into anyway. The setup I know of is Down Air Spike into Tippered Up Smash for a very early knockout, though that'd require using Down Air to land, which is risky, you can simply miss the spike, which is easy to miss, and your opponent can tech grounded spikes anyway. They both pretty much have identical, very strong Up Smashes with Lucina's getting people about 6-8% earlier.
Side Smash. This is the big one. Lucina's Side Smash is strong but it still manages to surprise even me every day. Without requiring even half the spacing Marth does, you get a Frame 10 Side Smash that gets people at 70% rageless near the ledge, and even a little bit of rage makes this move disgustingly powerful. I once got a Mewtwo centre-stage at 53% with her uncharged Side Smash after an airdodge read (I was at Stage 2 rage, granted). I've lost track of all the people I got at 60-80% after a punish near the ledge. Bloody hell...
The sheer power of this move has even surprised ESAM. That coupled with the two setups everyone always mentions that true combo into it make this a very dangerous move.
Now, into Specials. Their Down and Up Special are the exact same thing. Up Special actually is a pretty underappreciated KO move for both of them, being able to get people relatively early, especially with how fast it is. For the Side Special, it's a bit simple: Lucina's is better for more reliably getting damage as Marth's while Marth's tends to KO a bit earlier. Using training mode damage (which is incorrect, but still good for reference):
:
Up Finisher: 17% (16% in a real match)
Neutral Finisher: 16%
Down Finisher: 24% (20% in a real match)
:
Up Finisher
: 16-18% (15-18 in a real match)
Neutral Finisher: 15%-17%
Down Finisher: 22% (18-20% in a real match)
However, I got KOd by Marth's Tippered Up Finisher at 101% with Mario, while I've never seen Lucina's get anyone under 120%, so I'd say Marth's is far supperior for getting people.
As for Shield Breaker... To me, Lucina's will always be far more useful as a general move to use. I personally use it as an extented, very disjointed poke that goes around spot and airdodges, and since that rarely earns me tippers, I like Lucina's version of this move like it is. Marth's is better if you eventually get a shield break in your opponent, but Lucina's fully charged Shield Breaker actually doesn't KO people that much later than Marth's fully charged tippered, and both of them get people very early near the ledge (which is where hopefully all of your shield break punishes occur), so, in my honest opinion, Lucina's is better for me, though I'd say this is personal preference. One thing I can say about poking shields with this thing is actually trying to space around next to the tip when you hit the shield - this way, most characters just lose 90% of their shield for free and can't punish you for it. But if you mispace it, you're gonna get punished pretty badly, and the faster characters will still get you either way, so it's always a risk...
Neutral Special:
vs.
- Uncharged: 132% (tippered) 205% (non-tippered)
- Fully Charged: 36% (tippered) 68% (non-tippered)
vs.
- Uncharged: 153% (tippered) 241% (non-tippered)
- Fully Charged: 45% (tippered) 82% (non-tippered)
vs.
- Uncharged: 176% (tippered) 275% (non-tippered)
- Fully Charged: 54% (tippered) 96% (non-tippered)
vs.
- Uncharged: 167%
- Fully Charged: 51%
vs.
- Uncharged: 193%
- Fully Charged: 62%
vs.
- Uncharged: 220%
- Fully Charged: 74%
4. COMBOS
Lucina has actually a bit of her own combo game. Something people always mention is her now traditional Nair 1 into Side Smash true combo, here:
and also aerial Dancing Blade 1>Nair 1>Side Smash true combo:
but she actually has the same options Marth would have, such as (DB1>)Nair 1>Up Smash/Side Tilt/Up Tilt/Up Special:
It's also worth noting that, in the air at lower percents, Lucina has Forward Air>Forward Air>Up Special, which also does a decent damage and knockback, one Fair>Up Special still works to a decent percent.
Lucina most importantly has better combos out of her falling Up Air, as displayed here:
Not only are these much more reliable and easier with Lucina, but they also put your opponent at exactly the range Nair 1>Side Smash starts working (about 60-70%), and in the ledge, Lucina's Side Smash
will KO you as soon as that true combo starts working.
At percents closer to 0, this video actually shows something I've always done for quite a while:
It often displays how Lucina's aerials if used at close range can link into Down Tilt for additional damage, and even after this damage is caused, the enemy is still in the range for a Down Throw>Up Air. Although the video didn't show it, after the Down Tilt, if you're familiarized with your opponents shielding habits, you can actually immediatly go for a Dancing Blade with a Down Finisher to deal even more damage. Speaking of that video and Dancing Blade, it also shows something interesting, which is how Lucina's aerials sometimes link into a full Dancing Blade combo after them, which again deals very solid damage.
I also want to end this particular topic by saying that Marth having a sourspot in no way in
hell gives him at any point "twice the options". Just because his hits have two possible outcomes, that doesn't mean he gets two different options out of them. He might just get something out of both or
nothing out of both.
5. MY OPINION ON MATCHUPS
This is a controversial topic, but based on what I saw and my own MU experience, I'm gonna tackle some of their most common matchups discussed:
:
I will admit, although I always say Marth and Lucina roughly do just as well in this matchup as one another, I will say that maybe Marth has the edge here a bit. I assure you, as a long time Mario main myself, playing against both of them can be a pain if they space you out, but since Marth's tipper is located roughly at where Mario stops being a threat in range, Marth does have a bit more of an advantage here. However, this is definitely not 60:40, while Lucina's matchup with these three to me isn't 50:50, which is why I say they're both 55:45.
:
In my opinion, if you're really looking for a MU where Marth might do better than Lucina, this is the place, really. Marth's Tipper can eliminate Luma very quickly, and tippers on Luma can be easy to get thanks to how much she tends to stand still. Even if you don't eliminate it through knockback, the slight additional damage and stun his tipper do can help here. However, Marth needs to be careful since sourspots on Luma tend to do next to nothing on her, which I guess would make Lucina more consistent in this sense, since her hits are always guaranteed to do something? But even then, I feel this is better for Marth.
I have this match to refer to, just watch how many times Luma gets taken out by the tipper early:
:
Frankly, in my opinion, this is a much more comfortable matchup for Lucina than it is for Marth. Both of them can keep Captain Falcon out very well and then proceed to combo and edgeguard him, but I feel like Lucina's more balanced blade makes it much easier to space against this very fast and mobile character. Her blade is still strong enough to always keep him in the edge on damage, and she can achieve KO percent for him very fast.
:
This is complicated. I honestly believe this is just a bad MU for both and that this is just personal preference, but my own personal reasons why I think Lucina does better here is, again, the difficult of properly spacing anything against her, and even Zero agrees with me on this front. Sheik is a slim, extremely fast in-your-face character, you don't usually have the luxury microspace much against her. She ends up building a lot of rage on everyone thanks to how much damage she chips out of you, all the while having difficult in KOing opponents. Lucina heavily benefits from rage, and you don't wanna trade with enraged Lucina's aerials. What gives Marth's points in this MU is that if he does manage to space, he can end Sheik's stock fairly early with a tipper. I've also watched from some matches that it seems that Marth against Sheik ends up suffering Marth syndrome if he doesn't get a Grab>Up Throw at <160% or a stray tipper at some point, something Lucina suffers far less of when fighting Sheik, for what I see.
Interesting match I found that showcases some of the things I said.
Matchups I would've liked to comment about, but I frankly don't know much about any of the sides are Pikachu and Sonic.
CLOSING THOUGHTS
Really, if you read this post this far, I thank you. I realise I might've overdone it in the information part, but it's just a bunch of things I've been wanting to get out of my chest. I think that, much like Zero did it, we should maybe start looking at Marth and Lucina as maybe a pair, instead of two separate characters? They complete each other very well, and when people ask "Why play Lucina when there's Marth?", my answer is "Why not learn both?", because, as a player, it's only in your best benefit to be able to play both even if you might prefer one over the other. But, really, this is all that it comes down to: Preference. Most of their biggest strengths are shared, one's gameplan might simple bode with you better than the other, or maybe you just like one character better than the other period. They're an anomaly in the sense that they're so equal, yet so different. So different, yet still the same. The more things change, the more they stay the same?
All that I know is that, no matter who you choose, just remember...
"This strength more than serves me alone." - Lucina.
This might be something that Lucina said, but it definitely counts for both characters.
Sources:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...WFwy_dg04Rrq4a-YF9-VDOhZI/edit#gid=1636352940
http://kuroganehammer.com/Smash4/Marth
http://kuroganehammer.com/Smash4/Lucina
Lastly, the 1UpSmash discord and their Lucina mains, again, Takao especially.
I lament the fact that some of my WebMs couldn't be uploaded properly... ah, well...