Official 4BR Tier List v2.0 - Competitive Impressions

[OverTime]

Marth is top 3.

This tournament proves that ZeRo Saga was not a fluke.

Those who doubt me can catch me next time when Marth wins ANOTHER major.

Didn't Marth only win 3 sets? 1 being Leo against Mr. R (11-1)? 2 against Mario (8-4)?

Doesn't exactly scream his praises. Leo top 5 sounds a lot better all things considering.

 

[L9999]

Prince Ramen beat Zero at ceo though...

Not in attendence, mostly, Ryuga and Cosmos were absent. Ryo got 49th and Frozen got 65th.

IIRC ZeRo sparred with You3 when he went to train in Japan, so this time he knew something.

Marth is top 3.

This tournament proves that ZeRo Saga was not a fluke.

Those who doubt me can catch me next time when Marth wins ANOTHER major.

Can you give me reasons why he is top 3 and who is he better? If you say it like that I don't know what you mean.

 

[Das Koopa]

It's pretty clear that MKLeo is #3 or #2 at this point.

 

[TheGoodGuava]

Leo makes it look like Marth has no bad matchups, and maybe he doesn't if he's played correctly

Or maybe Leo is just Jesus himself, would it be crazy to call this kid a top 3 player?

 

[Rashyboy05]

Marth is top 3.

This tournament proves that ZeRo Saga was not a fluke.

Those who doubt me can catch me next time when Marth wins ANOTHER major.

If you've seen the actual tournament. You should know that Leo mostly used Cloud for the whole tourney. Only using Marth against Mr.R and Ally.

This tournament is not proof of Marth being a top 3 character

 

[Mr. Johan]

The sets, in a contextless vacuum, are of value when discussing MU perspective.

But because of how shoddily the pools were run, and because of #0.9, all sets at G4, imo, should not be considered as a perspective of who can win a major, because all those screwups, however unlikely, cannot be disregarded as not having an overall impact as to the placings of the tournament in the end.



That said, are we done deluding ourselves into thinking Sonic is Top 5 now?

 

[Gunla]

Leo makes it look like Marth has no bad matchups, and maybe he doesn't if he's played correctly

Or maybe Leo is just Jesus himself, would it be crazy to call this kid a top 3 player?

Should be noted that even the PGR v2 had his X-Factor placing him in the Top 3.

Considering how this and his ZeRo Saga runs were, I'd definitely say he's earned that Top 5 spot at the least. Personally, I'd say 3rd for me right now, however.

 

[Envoy of Chaos]

Yeah while Marth is a very good character it's more of MKLeo being a legend. You can't just take character into account you also gotta look at the player behind the character like how Nario whips a Bowser out and starts giving him his greatest placements at stacked tournaments. Not to say Bowser isn't a good character but Nario is just a amazing player.

 

[FeelMeUp]

Any mid tier or higher character that doesn't autolose to multiple characters from Bayo/Cloud/Sonic should be able to do fine in a bracket if piloted by a top level player. They won't be winning anything, but every character above mid tier has just enough bull**** for wins to be eked out.
Though you can't get upset when you get an Earth Pit scenario where the character is clearly holding you back.

 

[Bowserboy3]

Marth can't be atributted that, MK Leo played 96% Cloud.

Leo played mostly Cloud.

Dude, Leo used Cloud for most of his matches. Did he use Marth at all prior to top 8?

I mean, to be fair, Leo used Marth for all of his top 8 run. Cloud got him there, but Cloud didn't win him that tournament.

It was a team effort.

That said, I'm pretty sure most of us believe in his Marth at this point; he could have just gone Marth and I'm sure he would have been more than fine.

And whether or not Marth is top 3 (IMO almost certainly not), top 5 (unlikely), top 10 (very possible), whatever, I think it's more than fair to be calling him a top tier character at this point. I've always been reluctant (even as a Marth main) to call him a top tier character, and always labelled him as the best high tier character, but I may have reached a point where I have no option any more. Leo might be skilled, but he can't just use a sub-par character and win this consistently. The character plays arguably more a role than the player (kinda stating the obvious here, but it should be said).

That's before even before considering all the other good stuff Mr E has also done (albeit, he's less consistent than Leo); he's placed top 8 with the character many times now.

Hoo boy, as a Marth player... we've come a loooooooooong way...

Though something else I want to touch on briefly... people often give Rosalina some grief - I often see comments like "Rosalina is in top tier on life support", but despite these claims, Dabuz seems to consistently place within the top 8, or even top 16 with her, even in the face of poor showings from characters like ZSS (who to be fair, still places higher than Rosalina in most cases one way or another) and Fox. I don't see how this character is merely high tier. Perhaps she might be the worst top tiered character, but that's as low as I'd see her.

And with Rosalina on mind, the 0.9 scandal makes sense; I wondered how Dabuz lived as Rosalina until +190%.

I shudder to think how long this as a meme lives on...

 

[Nathan Richardson]

Someone was arguing with me a couple of pages back that it was player skill not character selection that was themost important because in his words 'they wouldn't be winning negative MUs if that was the case!' but there's something to be said for using a character that suits your playstyle. I'll stand by my opinion that character selection and player skill are equally important in this game.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Speaking of good performances and "overrated DLC" there is a lot of Cloud in top 16, but all have secondaries. Leo used way more Cloud and won the thing though, so is it correct to call Cloud "overrated DLC?"

No, Cloud's been underrated for quite a while. Recent tournaments demonstrate his capabilities exceeding their perceived limits. Not that long ago people were going about him not winning tournaments..

Cloud has never really been underrated, people have just finally realized that Cloud needs to either have a secondary by his side or be the secondary on another character's side to make his way to the top. The fact that we have 6 Clouds in the top 30 of Genesis 4 and not a single one [!] went solo should tell you pretty much everything you need to know about the character.

I mean, just look at Tweek. Kid's been struggling for a longass time now to find his way back into the top 12 of a major tournament using solo Cloud. But as soon as he starts using DK in tournament he wins the first and places 9th/1000 in the next one. We have so much observable data that show us how well Cloud works with a second character regardless of whether you use him as your main or your secondary character and how poorly he does solo. It makes him hard to place on a tier list accurately but I think his position in the metagame is fairly well established now and I don't see a problem with it nor much of a reason to complain.

Only 1 in top 32 and he lost in Round 1 pools. I feel he's a tick overrated. If he's top 5, why is there only 1 Fox doing well in Majors?

1.) There's actually two Fox players in top 24 - Larry at 13th, NAKAT at 17th.
2.) Larry may have lost in R1 pools but the player he lost to eventually placed 17th - tied with the likes of Marss and Nairo.
3.) Pretty sure nobody, or at least very few people, actually consider Fox top 5 at this point.
4.) His representation and reputation have been depending pretty much entirely on Larry for a while now, especially since SH disappeared. This might change in the future, depending on how well NAKAT does with the character. 17th at G4 is quite a good start but even then Fox' rep isn't particularly good - even compared to characters like DK or Peach.

It's pretty clear that MKLeo is #3 or #2 at this point.

Could actually be #1 now for all we know.

 

[Bowserboy3]

Leo makes it look like Marth has no bad matchups, and maybe he doesn't if he's played correctly

I'd go as far to argue that Sonic could well still be a losing MU. Toon Link isn't nice either (maybe with Hyuga making a gradual return to tournaments we'll be able to see how true this is). Fox and Mewtwo (more so Mewtwo) are still kind of up in the air in general. I'd still also say that Sheik still has a slight advantage (like a 55:45 in her favour), and more it's Leo knowing exactly how to exploit her than the other way around.

In general, certain heavy characters can still fluctuate too (for various reasons [Ding Dong, Koo-Pah, or whatever it's called, yada yada] and Dedede also can be a struggle to solidly and safely KO), but we'd still need more real data to prove these are bad/disadvantageous.

But as with most top players, they've shown us on many an occasion that bad/losing MU's can still be won.

But really, Marth can turn the tides of a losing MU into his favour at any moment of the game with one correct move. This can make his losing MU's fluctuate, and make them quite volatile. In a sense, it's kind of why opinions on DK and Bowser can fluctuate in a similar manner; one grab by these and your stock could be gone.

 

[Frihetsanka]

Leo might be skilled, but he can't just use a sub-par character and win this consistently. The character plays arguably more a role than the player (kinda stating the obvious here, but it should be said).

Two of the top Melee players (Hungrybox and Armada) use high tier* characters (Jigglypuff and Peach, respectively) and still win tournaments. It's not like you need a 55/45 or 60/40 MU ratio to win games, if you have a 50/50 MU ratio and simply play better you'll likely win. Even if you have a 45:55 MU ratio you could simply win by playing better. If MkLeo is the 3rd or 2nd best player in the world, then he should be able to win games even against hard characters.

I personally think that if Marth is to be top tier, then his current MU charts have to be wrong. A top tier character does not lose that many matchups 40/60 (or 45-55, in Pugwest's case).

Mr.E's MU chart: https://twitter.com/SS_MrE/status/740988384181637120
Pugwest's MU chart: https://twitter.com/Pugwest/status/786741022923616257
false's MU chart: https://twitter.com/fals1fy/status/740923629483986948

If Mr.E's MU chart is correct, then Marth is clearly not top tier (and arguably not even top of high tier). Losing 40:60 to common characters like is pretty bad, as well as . Losing 45:55 against as well as 10 (!) other characters is pretty bad as well. Mr.E's MU chart makes Marth look like a high-mid tier character at best. With that being said, I don't believe it's actually correct, I think Mr.E underrated Marth back then (it's a rather old MU chart, from June).
Pugwest's MU chart has no 40:60 MUs, which is good for Marth. He still loses 45:55 against and the only top and high tiers he wins against (55:45) are . Still not quite a top tier.
false's MU chart has two bad 40:60 MUs, , and five 45:55, . The only top tier he wins against is (45:55).

These MU charts would all have to be flawed in order for Marth to be top tier. It would be interesting to see what proponents of Marth as a top tier think this MU chart looks like. If he truly is a top tier then his MU chart needs to back that up.

*According to the 2015 tier list. Perhaps they have moved up to top tier at this point?

 

[Baby_Sneak]

If a top player pushes a non top-tier character past their usual performances, please don't say,"that character ain't really good, the player is just godlike."

If that player can push the character that far, I think it's more fair to say the player is utilizing the character extraordinarily efficient, is pushing that character to its limits, or breaking perceived notions of that character (or all three).

 

[Hippieslayer]

Cloud has never really been underrated, people have just finally realized that Cloud needs to either have a secondary by his side or be the secondary on another character's side to make his way to the top. The fact that we have 6 Clouds in the top 30 of Genesis 4 and not a single one [!] went solo should tell you pretty much everything you need to know about the character.

I mean, just look at Tweek. Kid's been struggling for a longass time now to find his way back into the top 12 of a major tournament using solo Cloud. But as soon as he starts using DK in tournament he wins the first and places 9th/1000 in the next one. We have so much observable data that show us how well Cloud works with a second character regardless of whether you use him as your main or your secondary character and how poorly he does solo. It makes him hard to place on a tier list accurately but I think his position in the metagame is fairly well established now and I don't see a problem with it nor much of a reason to complain.

Why does he need a secondary? Explain it deductively, not inductively. The latter is pointless because it teaches nothing except being okay with having facts but no understanding.

I don't think he needs a secondary. He doesn't get destroyed hard by any char. He is less in need of a secondary than for instance.. Mario or Fox. He just happens to lend himself well to being played with a secondary being relatively simple to play and he just happened to be released as DLC when people already had mains. Being a perfect secondary or co-main he's used as one. Doesn't mean he needs a secondary. He is one of the most solo viable characters in the game. If he needs a secondary pretty much everyone except Diddy and Sheik does and then "needing a secondary" doesn't really mean much. The data shows what you think it does because you've assumed it does and thus haven't explored alternative explanations. In the end, what matters is how actual matches play out. And in actual matches it can be seen that Cloud clearly does not need a secondary to be highly viable. Hell, Komo is a good example of this. Most of the time when he picks Sonic he could've stayed Cloud and won anyway. In the case of his match vs Zack he should've gone Cloud from the get go. It's like his Sonic is a character that he uses when he wants to make a point looking at the most recent tournaments. Cloud is solid throughout and doesn't need a secondary. His one glaring weakness -the recovery- isn't that much of a problem in practice unless the opponent happens to play Charizard or something.

Also, what do you think of Mario whom you've always underrated and what do you think of Fox whom you've always overrated? Looking at how things are developing recently. What with Ally doing much better than the Fox players, and doing really good in general despite not even knowing how to perfect pivot, not bothering to use an alt for crappy matchups, and not bothering to optimize his conversions?

 

[Bowserboy3]

If Mr.E's MU chart is correct, then Marth is clearly not top tier

To put it short, yes, those MU charts are (very in a certain case) old, I'd wager that most of them are invalid at this point, if only because of the development since their creation.

Interestingly, Mr E only a few days ago in an interview at Genesis 4 admitted that he "thought Marth was a bad character". In the same interview, he said (can't remember the exact quote) that Leo has showed him what the character can do, and that his previous opinion was wrong. This would explain why his MU chart is notoriously harsh on him - it is the oldest of the three you shared.

If anything, all three of those charts are very out of date now. All of these were created well before Leo started travelling about in October last year. Since then, we've had multiple different sets to analyse with Marth vs various top tier characters such as against Mario, Sheik, Bayonetta, Cloud, Diddy, Zero Suit, Rosalina, Fox etc, all of which Leo has shown us (consistently) that Marth can easily deal with, one way or another.

Top player MU charts are good, but they aren't gospel. After all, they're just opinions. I personally believe it's far better to study MU's of games themselves and draw conclusions.

For example, if I was to do a Marth MU chart, I might put Dedede as a losing MU, because that's a MU I struggle with for one way or another. Doesn't mean it's right, it's just an opinion. There isn't enough data to solidly back up this claim.

 

[ShadowGuy1]

Two of the top Melee players (Hungrybox and Armada) use high tier* characters (Jigglypuff and Peach, respectively) and still win tournaments. It's not like you need a 55/45 or 60/40 MU ratio to win games, if you have a 50/50 MU ratio and simply play better you'll likely win. Even if you have a 45:55 MU ratio you could simply win by playing better. If MkLeo is the 3rd or 2nd best player in the world, then he should be able to win games even against hard characters.

I personally think that if Marth is to be top tier, then his current MU charts have to be wrong. A top tier character does not lose that many matchups 40/60 (or 45-55, in Pugwest's case).

Mr.E's MU chart: https://twitter.com/SS_MrE/status/740988384181637120
Pugwest's MU chart: https://twitter.com/Pugwest/status/786741022923616257
false's MU chart: https://twitter.com/fals1fy/status/740923629483986948

If Mr.E's MU chart is correct, then Marth is clearly not top tier (and arguably not even top of high tier). Losing 40:60 to common characters like is pretty bad, as well as . Losing 45:55 against as well as 10 (!) other characters is pretty bad as well. Mr.E's MU chart makes Marth look like a high-mid tier character at best. With that being said, I don't believe it's actually correct, I think Mr.E underrated Marth back then (it's a rather old MU chart, from June).
Pugwest's MU chart has no 40:60 MUs, which is good for Marth. He still loses 45:55 against and the only top and high tiers he wins against (55:45) are . Still not quite a top tier.
false's MU chart has two bad 40:60 MUs, , and five 45:55, . The only top tier he wins against is (45:55).

These MU charts would all have to be flawed in order for Marth to be top tier. It would be interesting to see what proponents of Marth as a top tier think this MU chart looks like. If he truly is a top tier then his MU chart needs to back that up.

*According to the 2015 tier list. Perhaps they have moved up to top tier at this point?

2/3 of those MU charts were created in June 2016 which is a huge misrepresentation of the metagame in January 2017. While October is closer(Pugwest's MU chart), it was also before MKLeo came to the states and showed Marth's strengths against supposed 40-60 matchups.

 

[soniczx123]

That said, are we done deluding ourselves into thinking Sonic is Top 5 now?

What do you mean?? Just look at the results all top sonic's to justi... oh wait

In all seriousness, do people still really think this?? :/

 

[Krysco]

I can come up with an easy top 4 made up of roughly in that order but after that, I can't even begin to think what the next ordering would be. Rosa has a rather poor MK mu and seems to lose to swords in general, namely Cloud and Marth iirc. Mario hasn't been thought of too highly for a while and also seems to have the general issue of swords. Mewtwo has an awful Diddy mu. Fox has the most or second most exploitable recovery of the top tiers and is a light fast faller to boot. No idea what his mu spread is like though. ZSS hasn't been thought of to be top 5 by many people ever since her last nerfs and that leaves Sonic and Marth with the latter just recently being deemed a top tier. Though I find top whatever number pretty pointless anyways since all that matters is whether a character is viable or not and how much so, be it top tier, high tier, niche secondary worthy or worthless low tier. I'd be perfectly fine with Marth being deemed the 11th best and still calling him a top tier.

On another note, could someone give me a quick recap on what happened at EVO 2016 for people to say that G4 was like the second coming of it? I think it was EVO 2015 that I recall being the one with customs legal but I don't remember a damn thing about EVO 2016. Shame with how G4 went especially since Genesis came at the perfect time since the Apex drama happened.

 

[Zelder]

Holy hell why do people care so much about top 5. Do people still think that 5 (out of 58) is the magic dividing line in Smash 4 that determines whether a character can place at a large tournament, despite this not being borne out in data for like the past 30 tournaments?

edit: I feel the same way to a lesser extent about top 10 and other arbitrary cut off points. And I see that in the time between writing this, and then looking away to do actual work, Krysco made my same point but better.

 

[Jamurai]

While the matchup charts are somewhat dated, 6 months isn't long enough ago to completely dismiss them as invalid. They're still a pretty good general overview of Marth's matchups according to his main high level players minus MKLeo.

That said, the only matchups all three of them agree are a loss are

I think evidence points towards giving Marth trouble as well, only False disagrees with this notion, him having them at even.

The question is, have recent results including Leo's caused any of these to possibly not be the case now? And are there any MUs which are worse than they previously thought?

 

[Yikarur]

The Top4 are most likely in their own tier.
The rest is pretty undetermined. I don't think you can't establish a fair Top5 because the fifth place is more likely to be somewhere in the range from 5-10. After Top4 there is a clear gap.

 

[verbatim]

Zack still took Mr. R to game 5 and beat Aba & ANTi. Definitely a good look for his future.

Hopefully Komo recovers. I don't see him attending G5 though, he deleted all his tweets from the last month and didn't attend the awards ceremony. He's gone full M2K about it

IDT anyone should seriously consider attending G5 unless the staff gives a serious explenation for the situation, and makes things right with him and Dabuz.

 

[Nidtendofreak]

5-10 is a mess, any order of those characters is pretty reasonably acceptable. 11-12 or 11-13 is also pretty jumbled. Could argue its 11-15 even that's just a toss up.

People care about top 10 because due to our number system (like, as humans as a whole not just SSB4) we naturally want to group things in 10s or 5s. "Top 11" will never have the same ring to us as "Top 10". Can't be helped. Best to just accept the fact that's always how its going to be and move on.

 

[Frihetsanka]

To put it short, yes, those MU charts are (very in a certain case) old, I'd wager that most of them are invalid at this point, if only because of the development since their creation.

Quite possible. Maybe the Marth Discord should put together a new MU chart, or maybe some top Marth player should?

The Top4 are most likely in their own tier.

So, if Sonic isn't top 4, who takes his place? Cloud?

 

[Megamang]

I cant see pika beating marf.

Neutral pokes with strong conversions, rage jank, disjoints with great frame data, hitboxes that punish extensions hard... nair. Where does pika do anything back? Dont say bair gimps...

 

[Bowserboy3]

I cant see pika beating marf.

Neutral pokes with strong conversions, rage jank, disjoints with great frame data, hitboxes that punish extensions hard... nair. Where does pika do anything back? Dont say bair gimps...

Pikachu has a huge innate advantage being a nimble and most importantly, a small character (though it helps that Pikachu is light and in general a bit floaty: Up Throw puts a cap on his life).

This combination can make actually landing reliable KO's on Pikachu quite difficult at times.

Characters like Kirby who are just small and aren't fast aren't much of a problem.

Speed is the reason Sonic is likely a hard MU for Marth, after all.

Though that aside, having a projectile helps, seeing as Marth lacks one.

For me, I personally believe this MU is even, though I feel it could swing to a 55:45 either way with enough proof.

 

[TTTTTsd]

I think a large majority of the cast who are considered not Top 5 or whatever could easily be doing better if more ppl opted to grind out bad matchups rather than trying to outright avoid them IMO. Maybe not the mid tiers or the lower high tiers but definitely down to the 17th or perhaps even the 20th.

Understanding a MU is hard/bad isn't necessarily the issue but I think hesitation on attempting to even overcome it often holds characters back. Knowledge is such a powerful tool and it should not be underestimated.

 

[TDK]

So, if Sonic isn't top 4, who takes his place? Cloud?

I can't see it being cloud. I'd personally argue , if only by process of elimination.

 

[Frihetsanka]

I can't see it being cloud. I'd personally argue , if only by process of elimination.

Interesting. I personally think Mewtwo is near the bottom of top tier, perhaps even at #10 (that's where he ended up in the last 4BR tier list).

Where is Ryu these days? #12?

 

[YerTheBestAROUND]

I think Meta Knight, Bowser, and Toon Link are definitely disadvantageous for Marth.
It used to be believed that Marth lost to Mewtwo, Diddy Kong, Sheik, Cloud, Fox, Sonic, and ZSS but now those are looking even, or in Marth's favor in the case of Diddy.
Bowser has gotten worse now that people have actually figured out how to use him in neutral (by not playing neutral) and his range and follow ups just work well with how Marth wants to play and he doesn't get ledge trapped to **** like DK.
Meta Knight is still good at opening Marth up via his small body and the dash attack/dash grab 50/50 that punishes all whiffs.

Also, I don't think Pikachu is problematic. Meta Knight has a good ground game that's better than Marth's and is also small and able to punish Marth's aerial game. Pikachu doesn't have that. Same with Kirby.
Pikachu's neutral is a bit more thunderjolt and aerial centered, with tjolt being pretty easy to avoid in most scenarios and Pikachu's aerials having 0 range.

Here's Esam vs Leo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2ZOlNMltzw

 

[TDK]

https://twitter.com/Ambler3/status/823312480751468544

I don't mean to distract from the Marth discussion, but seriously, what happened here?

 

[Nidtendofreak]

Interesting. I personally think Mewtwo is near the bottom of top tier, perhaps even at #10 (that's where he ended up in the last 4BR tier list).

Where is Ryu these days? #12?

I'd agree with this. M2 is the bottom of the 5-10 range imo, and the one in danger of getting swapped with Marth. Just don't see lightweight + large frame + a few bad places to use teleport from for recovery doing quite as well in massive tournaments as the metagame progresses. Even with M2's damage output, that's a lot of risk you're taking every set. And it gets worse when you start hitting the Bo5 range and have to throw in more stages that M2 might not like.

To me, its Sheik/Diddy/Bayo all fighting for top 3 spots, Cloud firmly in 4th, and then either Mario or Sonic in 5th. Probably Mario for the moment, though I believe Sonic has better tools when optimized. Just not enough people willing to play campy when it would pay off to do so.

 

[Luigi player]

https://twitter.com/Ambler3/status/823312480751468544

I don't mean to distract from the Marth discussion, but seriously, what happened here?

Sheiks feet touched the banana. It looks weird but kinda makes sense when you think about it. Seems like bananas trigger when a characters foot touches them.
Can happen for throws too when a character is throwing in some acrobatic fashion lol.

 

[Ziodyne 21]

Interesting. I personally think Mewtwo is near the bottom of top tier, perhaps even at #10 (that's where he ended up in the last 4BR tier list).

Where is Ryu these days? #12?

Ryu is still a strange case in tier placings. On one hand Ryu has recently been getting better results in majors than I can ever recall him having in a long while. With Darkshad placing 9th at UGC and Locus placing 9th at ZeRo Saga and 17th at Genesis 4. Showing that he certainly cannot be slept on as many were (myself included) a while back. He can indeed be a threat and that early kill potential is nothing to igrore. However his main weakness that hold him back are still there and he still lacks the player rep of the top tiers despite the recent placings I mentioned above

I hesitate to place him any lower than around #15-16 at the moment but we will have to see if Ryu mainers like Darkshad and Locus can continue and increase their recent successes

 

[valakmtnsmash4]

Since a new tier list is scheduled to come out this month, who do you all think will move up? Down? Remain stagnant? Let's start a healthy discussion

 

[Sinister Slush]

3.) Pretty sure nobody, or at least very few people, actually consider Fox top 5 at this point.

I and many others still do.

4.) His representation and reputation have been depending pretty much entirely on Larry for a while now, especially since SH disappeared. This might change in the future, depending on how well NAKAT does with the character. 17th at G4 is quite a good start but even then Fox' rep isn't particularly good - even compared to characters like DK or Peach.

I mean for the other possible top 5 contenders (old ones that people don't consider anymore like Sonic) Mario entirely relies on Ally and maybe Anti to bring in Mario results with a side of Zenyou (but he drowned in R1 pools losing to Firefly's Yoshi)
Sonic is 6wx and hoping Komo doesn't pull out his cloud "secondary" which can be said with Anti pulling his plethora of other secondaries, then Fox it's pretty much Larry and a bunch of other random good foxes like Xzax Nakat Megafox Ksev Cyve etc.
Hell Marth's results is pretty much MKleo when he isn't going mostly cloud and Mr.E, so this whole logic around fox can work for all characters but Diddy is pulled outta the equation since ZeRo exists.

All characters in maybe top 12 have 1/2 hugely represented players with 5+ others that make top 16-48 at best at super nationals or big majors.

Like some people pointed out already, top 4 is most likely sheik cloud diddy bayo in no order with top 5-10 being switched around with 7 or 8 different characters, with some people actually thinking ZSS or Rosalina shouldn't be top 10 in favor of Marth Mewtwo or even Ryu. I've heard people think Bayo is only #8 in the game.

 

[Ziodyne 21]

My predicitions for the next 4BR Tier List

High changes of moving up : .
Smaller chances of moving up.

High chance of falling down: (despite Ryu's recent string of fairly high placings in recent majors, his overall performance since the last 4BR list has been underwhelming to say the least)

 

[Goombo]

How in the world is Cloud now back in Top 4 again?
He still loses solidly to Sheik and Bayo and slightly to Diddy, our more or less accepted top 3 at the moment (or more important, some of the most common threats at tournaments right now).

No character can be considered top 5 with that spread.

Smaller chances of moving up.

Lucina had to move up like about 20 spots if they want to be realistic.