Official 4BR Tier List v1.0 - Competitive Impressions

[bc1910]

For fun, here's the most Top 1 placements using +200 entrants, since 1.1.5:

13 - ,
12 -
11 - , ,
10 -
9 -
8 -
7 -
6 -
4 - , ,
3 - , ,
2 - , , ,
1 - , , , , , , ,
0 - Everyone Else


Woah there, Marth...

Surprise appearance from Roy as well. With 2 wins, no less.

Notably, Pikachu is absent from this list and from the top 16 results.

 

[KamikazePotato]

I am not sorting by 200+ entrant tournaments (Honestly I am not sure how Smashboards assigns their values, but I am pretty sure that it is not just by size). I don't entirely disagree with your opinion, I just disagree with the data you used to support it since it wasn't reliable data.

That's true, I just wanted to point out that while it would be preferable to use data from large tournaments, it's not really fair to judge if the data for certain characters doesn't really exist. Like it was pointed out, Ganondorf mains don't really travel much.

Filtering by 128 like someone suggested, you get:

Donkey Kong: 15 (Top 16), 4 (Top 1)
Ganondorf 4 (Top 16), 2 (Top 1)
Bowser: 18 (Top 16), 1 (Top 1)
Bowser Jr: 6 (Top 16), 1 (Top 1)
Charizard: 2 (Top 16), 1 (Top 1)
King DeDeDe 7 (Top 16), 0 (Top 1)

Added in Jr because why not, someone was talking about him. Despite having a low number of Top 16 placement, Ganondorf has achieved more Top 1 placements than anyone except Donkey Kong. This implies a low playrate rather than a low winrate...unfortunately, we don't have playrate or winrate numbers as far as I can tell, which are extremely important for analyzing this data as effectively as possible.

 

[ZSaberLink]

So how about character Identities
What separates idenity wise
What can namco/nintendo do to make seen as an alternative or style choice rather than inferior

Honestly, Toon Link's CQC is about as bad as Link's. I think people just don't realize how bad it is. Their frame data is remarkably similar in terms of start up frames on the ground, and Toon Link's is actually worse (apart from Nair) in the air. (UTilt startup is same but TLink has less end lag, FTilt startup is better for Toon, but has same FAF, etc.). Toon has the mobility advantage on the ground and thus can run away and avoid said CQC easier. I think that's more what it comes down to. Toon Links should not be doing CQC (except if they're holding a bomb perhaps).

I think the one aspect of Link that doesn't make much sense is that they clearly made Link's aerials faster than Toon Link's. However, they gave Link a terrible jumpsquat (frame 7) to go along with that. His Bair is frame 6 & Nair is frame 7, Bair autocancels/simply ends after a short hop, Nair ends after a full jump, and those two aerials + Fair have Sheik levels of landing lag (12, 10, 10 for Fair, Nair, and Bair respectively). Why the bad jumpsquat though? Just a frame 5 jumpsquat would probably make his OOS options (the noncommittal ones, since Spin Attack = frame 8, USmash = frame 10) better imo?

Link's bombs imo are equal if not better than Toon Link's (C4ing them, etc.). Boomerang is clearly better on Toon's in terms of two hitboxes, but honestly I'd say the outgoing hitbox on Gale seems to lead into more combos that Toon's.

Also, Link's Fair also kills at 100% now and combos off of a bomb. Toon Link's is probably a bit easier due to mobility, but it's not as different anymore. Link's might actually be safer in case you miss the bomb, because Link's Fair is pretty safe on shield (if spaced right), and like I said before, has little landing lag (12 frames) and a second hit as a mixup (so you can't necessarily drop your shield after the 1st hit).

 

[Shady Shaymin]

This community talks a lot about balance and it's clear that a lot of you don't have a clue of how balance actually works in the context of a competitive metagame. The sheer amount of ignorance on this thread is appalling.

https://youtu.be/e31OSVZF77w

Yes, mewtwo has a fair that's a decent amount stronger than most rising aerials. Yes, ness has a backthrow that is objectively superior to any other reward off of a grab in this game. Yes, diddy has a grounded poke that is as safe as it is rewarding, and boy is it rewarding.

Do you want to know why these things exist? It's not because Sakurai hates your mid tier main and wants you to be miserable. Nevermind the fact that all of these moves actually have their downsides and limitations; they exist because a metagame where many characters have slightly overwhelming different tools is more fun, more interesting, and more deep than a metagame where everyone is on the same power level.

Smash 4 achieves a delicate balance through carefully designed imbalances and subtle differences in playstyle, and a lot of you want to replace that with Super Smash Pits The Game, where every character is as good as the other.

 

[Megamang]

Link is another character that is pretty good, but CQC of the top tiers really hurts him. As greninja and megaman, it isn't easy to get in particularly, but it isn't impossible... and when you do, it isn't great for him. Greninja gets all kinds of yomi after a fair/nair, and these can be landed from a short hop that negates his projectiles and grab. Of course, he can deny you with a sword, but empty hops and dashgrabs make quick work of that. Link is a good character, but his weaknesses just hurt when you have a bracket of Mario/Diddy/Bayonetta/Cloud/Shiek just mixing up on your shield really hard. Add in the fact that the top chars can either gimp him or do some sort of hard kill pressure since his shield grab is so slow... it hurts. This is just my amateur 2cents of course, but the slow jab AND slow grab means he just isn't as scary when you get in his face. Wind boomerang is a pretty cool tool and I see it used to great effect, and Link is kinda like ZSS light where if he is getting the grabs (which are amazingly good and only hindered by link's mobility) he is going to be doing a lot of damage (buffered uair can be a confirm on a decent chunk of the cast, and as always these combos tend to hit the characters you want them to hit by and large). Of course, like ZSS, intelligent shield usage and occasional spotdodges when you feel a grab is imminent will hurt him a lot. And really, range is only a decent trait when you have something like Diddy throwing a banana OOS at you each time he blocks your sad spacing attempts.


But survivability is only mediocre when he can be gimped. Like Ike, he can also put out some hard gimps with lots of tools, but when you have Cloud nair to compete with you start to realize why Cloud is usually just a better choice.

Zard.. im hopeful for zard buffs, he is pretty cool but has some dysfunctional moves and also kinda relies on his autocancel windows a lot. At stages with no Z depth he gets to sweetspot his ftilt always, which is funny. And he also destroys you if he grabs you by the tree. And rage fly is actually ridiculous with how early it kills.


---

As someone who has trouble sticking with a main in any game, it is really really awesome to see that top level players are placing emphasis on their secondaries. Scatt is still trying to learn Mega vs Shiek, but has a secondary for the MU. This isn't a huge knock against Megaman, and really you dont' have to 'master' your secondary if it is only for a certain MU, it can be optimized against that character and your learning curve is lessened significantly. Then you have someone like Larry with some mains, ESAM hopefully getting back into top form with Pika/Corrin (OMG his corrin makes me hype for the character, even when im salty jealous about his fair), Void using a Fox/Shiek combo with great fluidity. He also picks his characters based on stage choice (or was at MSM) which is something I have considered as a good idea for a while, im super glad to see someone validate my decision because im never sure if it leaves me open for CP tricksies but none of my mains get BTFO by anyone now that needles aren't a full screen jab. Im rambling now, but I love where the meta is. Im kinda glad we are so unsure of where each character will stand in the coming months, because lots of people have a secondary in case of some nerfs for their main. You shouldn't be afraid of your main getting gutted because it hasn't really happened unless you had a crazily centralizing option anyways.

a game where you have to worry about a large chunk of the cast, even if you 'beat' them barely, is a really good one. Character loyalists and switchers are each rewarded in their own way, and its great. Im super hyped for the progress of the meta in the coming months.

 

[ARGHETH]

Yes, mewtwo has a fair that's a decent amount stronger than most rising aerials. Yes, ness has a backthrow that is objectively superior to any other reward off of a grab in this game. Yes, diddy has a grounded poke that is as safe as it is rewarding, and boy is it rewarding.

Could you point out when we've complained about Ness's Bthrow and Diddy's Dtilt? Because other than a few scattered posts there isn't anything that I could find. Mewtwo's Fair is only a recent thing in this thread, after a bunch of people started disputing a certain post someone made.

a lot of you want to replace that with Super Smash Pits The Game, where every character is as good as the other.

lol
People want most characters to be around the same viability level.
But please, keep being condescending.

 

[dakotaisgreat]

It hurts so much knowing that your main is good enough to not suck, but not bad enough to be buffed to the point of being any better then "Meh."

Its not fair! Diddy and Meta Knight stayed great like in Brawl! I know Olimar isn't going to get any buffs this patch either. I hope Roy at least will.

 

[bc1910]

The much fabled "top X" results-based rankings for top 8 placements at tourneys with 128+ entrants in 1.1.5, for anyone who's interested.

Top 5:
Top 10:
Top 15:
Top 20:

Things to note:

• ROB and Greninja, hot damn.
• Luigi is still a potent tournament threat. I personally haven't been giving him enough credit and neither have many others. It's quite possible that his MU spread is not as bad in practice as it is in theory.
• Sheik has been comfortably dethroned but remains top 5. Top 3 of Bayo/Diddy/Cloud seems about right.
• Marth is picking up speed and Corrin is still doing well. Mewtwo is doing well too, though I'd have expected him to be even higher.
• I would say ZSS is on the decline, but her results were never that strong outside tip-top level. Still, I think this is lower than you'd expect for her.

 

[Shady Shaymin]

Could you point out when we've complained about Ness's Bthrow and Diddy's Dtilt? Because other than a few scattered posts there isn't anything that I could find. Mewtwo's Fair is only a recent thing in this thread, after a bunch of people started disputing a certain post someone made.

lol
People want most characters to be around the same viability level.
But please, keep being condescending.

Diddy dtilt tilt has been whined about plenty of times ever since the patch wishlist began. And ness backthrow has been notorious for inducing salt and complaining since forever.

I know many of you are sensible enough to want universal character viability. The problem is that so many people on this thread are circumventing non-solutions and nerfs to somewhat overwhelming tools to the point where the only possible end result is Super Smash Pits.

And yes, I know that nerfs are sometimes necessary. There is a drastic difference between an overwhelming tool like a ness backthrow, and a straight up bull**** move like witch twist.

 

[ARISTOS]

The much fabled "top X" results-based rankings for top 8 placements in 1.1.5, for anyone who's interested.

Top 5:
Top 10:
Top 15:
Top 20:

Things to note:

• ROB and Greninja, hot damn.
• Luigi is still a potent tournament threat. I personally haven't been giving him enough credit and neither have many others. It's quite possible that his MU spread is not as bad in practice as it is in theory.
• Sheik has been comfortably dethroned but remains top 5. Top 3 of Bayo/Diddy/Cloud seems about right.
• Marth is picking up speed and Corrin is still doing well. Mewtwo is doing well too, though I'd have expected him to be even higher.
• I would say ZSS is on the decline, but her results were never that strong outside tip-top level. Still, I think this is lower than you'd expect for her.

What is your methodology for this? Are weeklies included in the rankings? For the tournaments listed, how many top players were present? Or is it just a free-for-all?

You need to add more context behind these statistics. Das Koopa 's work aims to do that; you need to do the same as well.

 

[Das Koopa]

The issue I have with SB's rankings is the the fact that they use an extremely high number of weeklies.

It IS useful, nonetheless, because it actually gives insight into discrepancies between highly discriminatory systems (like mine) and ones that account for lower levels of play. Similar to getting information of what secondaries benefit most by using an unweighted, system, a system using a ton of weeklies that causes discrepancies can help determine what characters might do better at a lower level of play.

In this case, ,, and all seem to do notably better when weeklies are accounted for.

 

[bc1910]

What is your methodology for this? Are weeklies included in the rankings? For the tournaments listed, how many top players were present? Or is it just a free-for-all?

You need to add more context behind these statistics. Das Koopa 's work aims to do that; you need to do the same as well.

I thought it was clear that these are SB rankings? So it's SB methodology. Not perfect, but interesting nonetheless. Very useful if you're looking at the wider spectrum of Smash 4 results.

Need I remind everyone that @Thinkaman collectively owned the thread by presenting these rankings as a tier list under an alt account. Again, they're not perfect, but they're a very useful form of hard data.

EDIT: Forgot to note that I used a minimum entrant value of 128.

So Das Koopa you might find that interesting too - the particular results I listed probably don't include an excessive number of weeklies, if any at all. It should be regional data and above.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

I probably sound like a broken record at this point .... but any result "compilation" that doesn't include [or largely ignores] results from Japan should be taken with a grain of salt, to say the least. Das Koopa's ranking may exclude the majority of tournaments but at least it's consistent and not arbitrary - SWF rankings are honestly just that.

 

[ARISTOS]

I thought it was clear that these are SB rankings? So it's SB methodology. Not perfect, but interesting nonetheless. Very useful if you're looking at the wider spectrum of Smash 4 results.

Need I remind everyone that @Thinkaman collectively owned the thread by presenting these rankings as a tier list under an alt account. Again, they're not perfect, but they're a very useful form of hard data.

Nothing wrong, I just wanted to know the context with which data is coming from. It seems like this is fully inclusionary based off of what's available on SB rankings. Sorry, I'm big into data stuff and get peeved if people don't include their methods.

The next question to ask is why fall off so much harder after the local/small regional level.

 

[Das Koopa]

I probably sound like a broken record at this point .... but any result "compilation" that doesn't include [or largely ignores] results from Japan should be taken with a grain of salt, to say the least. Das Koopa's ranking may exclude the majority of tournaments but at least it's consistent and not arbitrary - SWF rankings are honestly just that.

It's a little bit arbitrary in the categorization since I've yet to come up with a solid 100% way of separating C1 and C2. Panda Global is currently pulling a MIOM and creating a Top 50 players list using their PGStats system and a panelist of Smash4 's top players, so I may use this in the future to help determine such things:

http://panda.gg/articles/news/Unknown/28/pgr-ranks-50-41

 

[san.]

The issue I have with SB's rankings is the the fact that they use an extremely high number of weeklies.

It IS useful, nonetheless, because it actually gives insight into discrepancies between highly discriminatory systems (like mine) and ones that account for lower levels of play. Similar to getting information of what secondaries benefit most by using an unweighted, system, a system using a ton of weeklies that causes discrepancies can help determine what characters might do better at a lower level of play.

In this case, ,, and all seem to do notably better when weeklies are accounted for.

Rango wins all of his weeklies, so that explains that.

Monthlies in my region are considered local, and I usually win those.

 

[bc1910]

Nothing wrong, I just wanted to know the context with which data is coming from. It seems like this is fully inclusionary based off of what's available on SB rankings. Sorry, I'm big into data stuff and get peeved if people don't include their methods.

The next question to ask is why fall off so much harder after the local/small regional level.

It's all good - I should have made it clearer that I was still using that data set (and still with 128+ entrants).

My guess would be that it comes down to their lack of a top US professional, though they have several strong regional players. Even from a theoretical standpoint, these characters sort of float around 15th on the tier list (with Ike a bit lower IMO) which does make them harder to do work with at top level.

I probably sound like a broken record at this point .... but any result "compilation" that doesn't include [or largely ignores] results from Japan should be taken with a grain of salt, to say the least. Das Koopa's ranking may exclude the majority of tournaments but at least it's consistent and not arbitrary - SWF rankings are honestly just that.

Forgive me, but it seems that you sometimes spin results data to fit certain points you're trying to make.

Something we're all somewhat guilty of I'm sure; it's just important to view useful data sets as well as worldwide totals. I agree that Koopa's rankings are useful as a cohesive picture of worldwide results (assuming SWF rankings place less focus on both Japan and Europe).

 

[HeavyLobster]

It hurts so much knowing that your main is good enough to not suck, but not bad enough to be buffed to the point of being any better then "Meh."

Realistically if you do suck, you probably won't be buffed past the point of being "meh," with really only 2 exceptions to that, so it's almost always better to be average than it is to suck and be stuck hoping that maybe one day you'll be meh.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Also here's a step by step comparison of Link vs. Toon Link. Honestly I think they've done a decently good job of making them very different. This is going to be a long post....

Mobility:

Spoiler

Toon Link has better ground run speed, good horizontal aerial mobility, but bad vertical mobility.

Link has worse run speed, bad horizontal aerial mobility, but good vertical aerial mobility (Fastfall speed being 90% over normal fall speed, which only Link has, helps. Plus a medium fall speed.).

Basically this mobility allows Toon Link to deal with CQC better because he can escape it better. I don't think he really has the tools to contest it with any type of attack. He also gets comboed less, but dies earlier. Toon also generally just has good dodge/roll data. I seriously think these are the main reasons they have very different spots in the meta.

-------------
Recovery:

Spoiler

Without any bomb jumping, Toon Link's recovery is better than Link's. However, with a bomb pulled at the right time and a second jump, Link can actually recover from nearly anywhere. Tink rarely can bomb jump due to the longer fuse time. The main problem is that the recovery can be predictable, but I don't think that's dramatically different for Tink. Link's recovery is still much better than he's ever had (upwards momentum from second jump makes Up-B have a very good vertical distance actually).

Link also gets a longer tether than Toon Link for recovery if I'm not mistaken.

---------------
Hyrule Shield:

Spoiler

Link has to cover more hitboxes with his shield (normal or crouching), whereas Toon Link's shield blocks his entire body. However, Link can keep the shield in front of him when walking (probably needs to be used more for Link given his walk and run are 1.18 & 1.39 respectively), Toon Link can't.

--------------
Aerials:

Spoiler

Link has a Frame 6 Bair, Frame 7 NAir, and Fair is frame 14 (2 hits). BAir autocancels in SH & NAir in FH. These have very little landing lag anyways though (B10, N10, F12).

Toon Link has a Frame 6 Nair, Frame 7 Bair, and Fair at frame 14 (1 hit). Nair & Bair can both autocancel out of SH (frame 41), all out of a full hop, although Nair would have to be exact for a short hop. Landing lag is much worse on the aerials though (N12, B17, F18). Bair's landing lag only got recently reduced from 20.

Link's UAir is basically identical to Toon's but better (more range & damage, both frame 11 and very similar landing lag (T21 & L23 but both can be Autocancelled out of a full hop)). I think the knockback looks pretty similar, but it's hard to tell.

Toon Link's DAir isn't very useful, whereas Link's is a usable spike and has decent enough range (beats Cloud's UAir head-on as an example).

I'd say Link has better aerials by a bit due to less landing lag, comparable damage (Link a bit more), a usable DAir, and more range. Toon has a better jump squat at frame 5 (compared to Link's 7), so Toon has better ground to air though (this is what I want fixed for Link!!!).

--------------
Bombs:

Spoiler

Same frame data on bomb pulling for both.

Link can drop/throw bombs on the ground without them exploding, throws them harder, can play weird drop & pick-up games along with aerials. Link's bomb explodes faster and thus can be used in recovery. Link's bomb also basically is a free cancel for so many projectiles (except needles usually glance off of it, things that can be controlled like Pit's arrows, and things like Thoron obviously), but all the charged shots clank with a bomb in the air or lying on the ground). Link can throw bombs down and fastfall into them with an aerial to combo. Toon Link's bombs have some of these properties, but Link's bombs can take more damage and soft dropping/throwing them helps here.

Toon Link throws bombs more softly and thus can fake out throw and catch them before sending them. Toon Link's bombs can be held on for longer, more like Diddy with his banana but are much harder to soft drop, and definitely can't be soft thrown. Toon Link's horizontal mobility allows for him to play with bombs quite differently, and simply be very evasive. Thus his combos are more horizontal when it comes to bombs from what I can see. (I'm not a Toon Link main, but I'm sure there are more things here).

---------
Throws:

Spoiler

Link has throw combos. Link's DThrow combos on a lot of characters with UTilt, USmash, FH Nair, FH Aerial UpB, FH UAir). I think most Links haven't gotten the %ages down, especially when rage comes into play (DThrow works better w/o rage).

UThrow is bad without rage, but is actually decent with rage (as the board has realized recently). Kills a good bunch of characters at like 120-130% at max rage lol.

Toon Link has his BThrow as a strong kill option and that's about it.

Link's grab range is much longer than Toon, so it's just generally more rewarding, and his ending lag is a bit less too (about 5 frames).

Problem for both of them though is that the grab is just slow to start and even slower to finish.

-------
Grounded moves:

Spoiler

Link's range is better, his tilts (UTilt & FTilt) kill and all either have decent startup or decent endlag when the range is used correctly (UTilt frames 8-12, FAF 36, FTilt 15-18, FAF 34, DTilt - 11-12, FAF 29).

Toon Link's start at similar frames (8-9 usually), but sometimes end faster (UTilt mostly) but obviously he has less range.

Thus Toon Links use UTilt since it's safe and quick and combos into itself, Links covers more area, and thus doesn't combo into itself if they just jump (Air Dodge/Fast fall is caught with USmash/UTilt). Toon's FTilt has less range, and starts faster (Frame 9), does much less damage/knockback, but has more endlag (FAF 34).

Toon Link has a much more versatile Dash Attack. Link's is more used in special circumstances (when folks are on platforms, near edges), and for the confirm off of soft Nair to kill.

DTilt is fast for both. Not sure if Toon Links use the move, but for Link it can string into Fair & Uair if they don't DI away.

The jabs are fairly similar, although Toon Link's jab 1 is much safer now (because Link's jab 1 nerf). Frame 6 on Toon Jab 1 vs. Frame 7 on Link Jab 1. However, Jab 2 and 3 have very similar frame data.

Smashes are similar in startup, except Link's are more powerful/damaging. Toon Link's smash attacks are plenty strong however.

Link's FSmash has a tipper on hit 1 that makes it somewhat safe on shield when spaced (as safe as our jab 3 but from much farther away). Toon Link doesn't seem to have that although obviously both characters have the possibility of a quick second strike that keeps the opponent shielding after the first hit.

---
Out of Shield

Spoiler

This where both characters suffer.

Link's options are
Jump Cancelled Grounded Up-B - Frame 8 - Kill move on immediate hit. Terrible on Whiff (FAF 82)
Jump Cancelled USmash - Frame 10 - Kill move on hit, Better on Whiff than Up-B due 3 scary hitboxes, but still very committal
Jump + Bair = frame 13 (7 Jump + 6 Bair)
Jump + Nair = frame 14 (7 Jump + 7 Nair)
Shield Drop + Jab = frame 14 (7 + 7 Jab)
Shield Drop + UTilt = frame 15 (7 + 8 UTilt), etc....

Basically he has two decently fast killing, but very committal options, and a bunch of slower options, most of which aren't safe on shield either in close range.

Toon Link's options are
Jump Cancelled Grounded Up-B - Frame 9- Wracks up a little damage on hit? Terrible on Whiff (FAF 81)
Jump Cancelled USmash - Frame 11 - Kill move on hit, Better on Whiff than Up-B due hitboxes, but somewhat committal (FAF 43)
Jump + Nair = frame 11 (5 Jump + 6 Nair)
Jump + Bair = frame 12 (5 Jump + 7 Bair)
Shield Drop + Jab = frame 13 (7 + 6 Jab)
Shield Drop + UTilt = frame 15 (7 + 8 UTilt), etc....

Toon Link is similar, but arguably kind of worse. Has one decently fast killing, but somewhat committal option, an ok but fast Up-B, and a bunch of slower options, most of which aren't safe on shield either in close range.

So.. *shrugs*.

Link is able to space from farther away and do much more damage, whereas Toon Link is able to throw out attacks more safely at a slightly closer range. Both honestly suck at CQC, but Toon Link can escape better due to his better horizontal mobility. He can run away, and by being light, isn't comboed as easily. He still remains reasonably strong with his attacks.

 

[HeavyLobster]

Most of the Top Ganons don't really travel that much unfortunately :/.

They also just generally aren't really close to big and visible US scenes. Of the 15 Dorf players rated S or A tier on the community tier list, only really Opana in NY and Rice and Matt Hazard in Cali live in big states iirc. Outside of that, they're either in less prominent Smash states like Oregon or Minnesota, or outside the US, which means they tend to get overlooked.

 

[ArnoldPalmer]

Honestly, Toon Link's CQC is about as bad as Link's. I think people just don't realize how bad it is. Their frame data is remarkably similar in terms of start up frames on the ground, and Toon Link's is actually worse (apart from Nair) in the air. (UTilt startup is same but TLink has less end lag, FTilt startup is better for Toon, but has same FAF, etc.). Toon has the mobility advantage on the ground and thus can run away and avoid said CQC easier. I think that's more what it comes down to. Toon Links should not be doing CQC (except if they're holding a bomb perhaps).

I think the one aspect of Link that doesn't make much sense is that they clearly made Link's aerials faster than Toon Link's. However, they gave Link a terrible jumpsquat (frame 7) to go along with that. His Bair is frame 6 & Nair is frame 7, Bair autocancels/simply ends after a short hop, Nair ends after a full jump, and those two aerials + Fair have Sheik levels of landing lag (12, 10, 10 for Fair, Nair, and Bair respectively). Why the bad jumpsquat though? Just a frame 5 jumpsquat would probably make his OOS options (the noncommittal ones, since Spin Attack = frame 8, USmash = frame 10) better imo?

Link's bombs imo are equal if not better than Toon Link's (C4ing them, etc.). Boomerang is clearly better on Toon's in terms of two hitboxes, but honestly I'd say the outgoing hitbox on Gale seems to lead into more combos that Toon's.

Also, Link's Fair also kills at 100% now and combos off of a bomb. Toon Link's is probably a bit easier due to mobility, but it's not as different anymore. Link's might actually be safer in case you miss the bomb, because Link's Fair is pretty safe on shield (if spaced right), and like I said before, has little landing lag (12 frames) and a second hit as a mixup (so you can't necessarily drop your shield after the 1st hit).

Links landing lag overall is actually insanely low, only 4 frames less than Sheik's

Nair:
Sheik - 10 frames
Link - 10 frames

Bair:
Sheik - 12 frames
Link - 10 frames

Fair:
Sheik - 10 frames
Link - 12 frames

Uair:
Sheik - 21
Link - 23

Dair:
Sheik - 30
Link - 32

Whats more is that Link's uair and dair can both outlast an airdodge, something Sheik isn't able to do. His bair also has less FAF than ANY of Sheiks aerials which is astounding

Link with a 5 frame jumpsquat and a decent airspeed (like he had in melee/64) could end up being a high tier threat, his juggling ability would be almost unmatched and his combo game is already decent

 

[ARGHETH]

Diddy dtilt tilt has been whined about plenty of times ever since the patch wishlist began. And ness backthrow has been notorious for inducing salt and complaining since forever.

I've looked through this thread searching for "dtilt" and there's been maybe one extended conversation about it and scattered posts talking about how good it is in the past 100 pages (because I'm not searching through this whole thing). I think Mewtwo's Dtilt has been talked about almost as often.
Ness's Bthrow hasn't been talked about in the context of nerfs at all in this thread though.

 

[SubconsciousRose]

DTilt is fast for both. Not sure if Toon Links use the move, but for Link it can string into Fair & Uair if they don't DI away.

Good read overall comparing and contrasting Link and Toon Link well

Just wanted to add a quick note that I believe that Toon Link's dtilt actually always trips at the 0-20%~ range so that's another nice part about the move since that leads to really nice followups at low % like the aforementioned utilt combos.

 

[juddy96]

Projected top 32 for GOML 2016 (from smash.gg projections/seeding)

Winners

Nairo vs. Wizzrobe
Mew2King vs. SuperGirlKels
Larry Lurr vs. iStudying
Zinoto vs. DKwill
Ally vs. V115
Leo vs. False
Mr. R vs. Blacktwins
ANTi vs. Holy

Losers

Chrim Foish vs. San
Yoh vs. Exodia
C3PO vs. Poke
Venom vs. Iceninja
JJROCKETS vs. Alphicans
Mr. E vs. smasher1001
DarkAura vs. K.I.D.Goggles
Ksev vs. Raziek

 

[ShadowGuy1]

Projected top 32 for GOML 2016 (from smash.gg projections/seeding)

Winners

Nairo vs. Wizzrobe
Mew2King vs. SuperGirlKels
Larry Lurr vs. iStudying
Zinoto vs. DKwill
Ally vs. V115
Leo vs. False
Mr. R vs. Blacktwins
ANTi vs. Holy

Losers

Chrim Foish vs. San
Yoh vs. Exodia
C3PO vs. Poke
Venom vs. Iceninja
JJROCKETS vs. Alphicans
Mr. E vs. smasher1001
DarkAura vs. K.I.D.Goggles
Ksev vs. Raziek

I hope Kid Goggles will make top 8. It's a stretch but you never know, we need the rematch of him vs Mr.R

 

[FullMoon]

What's with Sonic mains and having Kirby as a secondary?

 

[Shady Shaymin]

What's with Sonic mains and having Kirby as a secondary?

Kirby can do stuff to ZSS

 

[Deleted member 269706]

Projected top 32 for GOML 2016 (from smash.gg projections/seeding)

Winners

Nairo vs. Wizzrobe
Mew2King vs. SuperGirlKels
Larry Lurr vs. iStudying
Zinoto vs. DKwill
Ally vs. V115
Leo vs. False
Mr. R vs. Blacktwins
ANTi vs. Holy

Losers

Chrim Foish vs. San
Yoh vs. Exodia
C3PO vs. Poke
Venom vs. Iceninja
JJROCKETS vs. Alphicans
Mr. E vs. smasher1001
DarkAura vs. K.I.D.Goggles
Ksev vs. Raziek

It's been nice seeing San going to more tourneys lately. I do enjoy some good Ike play. It's also nice to see some mid tier characters like Marth, Robin, ROB, and Palutena projected to make it this far. Expecting good things from them. Totally hoping we see Ally v Larry again, last time they played was a real treat

 

[ARISTOS]

Need I remind everyone that @Thinkaman collectively owned the thread by presenting these rankings as a tier list under an alt account. Again, they're not perfect, but they're a very useful form of hard data.

EDIT: Forgot to note that I used a minimum entrant value of 128.

So Das Koopa you might find that interesting too - the particular results I listed probably don't include an excessive number of weeklies, if any at all. It should be regional data and above.

Are you sure about this?

I'm looking through Greninja's results with a Min value of 128 and I still see a ton of results listed as weeklies.

 

[UberMadman]

Kirby can do stuff to ZSS

Honestly, Kirby doesn't really beat a smart Zero Suit Samus any more than Sonic does. Once again, Kirby's theory in the MU is based on the fact that he crouches under most of her neutral tools, but he still gets punished hard for mistakes and dies early for them, while struggling to approach and failing to be threatening at range. However, Sonic has the tools to approach ZSS if the Sonic player is smart and mixes up their approach, meaning not being reliant on spindash. The matchup is one of Sonic's worst high tier matchups and one of Kirby's better high tier matchups, but... it's Sonic as opposed to Kirby, so the matchup is still similar between the two of them.

Watch this set between SuperGirlKels and Nairo. She goes Kirby the first two games because she believes the Sonic/ZSS matchup to be worse than the Kirby/ZSS matchup, and sure enough she does decent game 1, even though she loses. However, by game 2 Nairo has adapted to fighting Kirby in neutral and bodies her, causing her to switch back to Sonic, and she does comparably if not slightly better than how she does game 1. After the fact, Nairo himself even stated that he believes Sonic to be a harder matchup for ZSS than Kirby.

 

[Das Koopa]

Projected top 32 for GOML 2016 (from smash.gg projections/seeding)

Winners

Nairo vs. Wizzrobe
Mew2King vs. SuperGirlKels
Larry Lurr vs. iStudying
Zinoto vs. DKwill
Ally vs. V115
Leo vs. False
Mr. R vs. Blacktwins
ANTi vs. Holy

Losers

Chrim Foish vs. San
Yoh vs. Exodia
C3PO vs. Poke
Venom vs. Iceninja
JJROCKETS vs. Alphicans
Mr. E vs. smasher1001
DarkAura vs. K.I.D.Goggles
Ksev vs. Raziek

personal guesses for winner's side using these projections

Nairo > Wizzy

Wizzrobe could be a top 5 player if he wanted to be but he obviously dedicates his time to Melee. I'm kind of skeptical he'll even stay in Winner's Side, but he'll go down to Nairo unless Nairo is in full buster bode.

Mew2KIng > Kels

Kels is good but Mew2King is probably top 20 and has dedicated a lot of time to this game lately.

Larry Lurr > iStudying

iStudying had close sets with Florida's best but neither ESAM or MVD are on Lurr's level. Probably a 3-0 and a handshake, has iStudying faced any top level Foxes? I don't even know if any exist in Europe.

Zinoto > DKWill

Zinoto has had god-tier Top 10-level results since getting 25th at Genesis 3. He's won the last four tournies he's attended, is solidly the second-best Diddy worldwide, and could be a potential upsetter to win GOML, IMO. Top 8 at least, easily bodies DKWill.

Ally > V115

V115's big wins were in July of last year. I'm not even confident he'll make Winner's Bracket. No chance vs. Ally this time imo.

Leo > False

Unless Leo gets out-of-country jitters I don't see this being very close. False has done fine since his disappointing 49th at G3 (2nd at his own 2GGT Saga, 5th at Super Smash on the Hill) but Leo's consistently the best in an underrated region.

Mr. R. > Blacktwins

lol

Holy > ANTi

Calling this upset. Holy is extremely good and ANTi has been relatively out-of-focus since he's been playing SFV a lot. We've seen what it does to Ranai, so I expect Holy to win and for ANTi to gear up for a good Loser's Run like at Battle of BC. Matchup unfamiliarity may be an Achilles heel for him considering he lost to Angis. If ANTi is in top form though, rip Holy.


Anything after this is super hard to speculate because there are a lot of players who don't have high-level matchup experience in certain areas. I'd guess Mr. R and Nairo Winner's Finals since they're two of the Top 5 in attendance, but Leo could upset Mr. R. I'm also pretty sure Zinoto > Lurr but that he'll lose hard to Nairo.

Random loser's bracket guesses

IceNinja > Venom
Ksev > Raziek
Goggles > DarkAura
C3PO > Poke
JJROCKETS > Alphicans
Mr. E > Smasher1001

 

[UberMadman]

Bad news for the lot of you expecting a major balance overhaul: it seems Bayonetta is the only character receiving changes in 1.1.6. On the one hand, Bayo nerfs pretty much confirmed, but on the other hand, Jigglypuff is going to rot in obscurity forever it seems.

 

[Das Koopa]

Bad news for the lot of you expecting a major balance overhaul: it seems Bayonetta is the only character receiving changes in 1.1.6. On the one hand, Bayo nerfs pretty much confirmed, but on the other hand, Jigglypuff is going to rot in obscurity forever it seems.

The 60mb thing more or less telegraphed this. Not surprised.

 

[C0rvus]

I'm pretty sure that's a joke.

 

[UberMadman]

I'm pretty sure that's a joke.

This is the same guy who leaked Roy and Ryu before the patch even went live by downloading the update data from Nintendo's servers, which is what he has done here to access the patch information. And he is not one to lie.

 

[Phan7om]

Honestly, Kirby doesn't really beat a smart Zero Suit Samus any more than Sonic does. Once again, Kirby's theory in the MU is based on the fact that he crouches under most of her neutral tools, but he still gets punished hard for mistakes and dies early for them, while struggling to approach and failing to be threatening at range. However, Sonic has the tools to approach ZSS if the Sonic player is smart and mixes up their approach, meaning not being reliant on spindash. The matchup is one of Sonic's worst high tier matchups and one of Kirby's better high tier matchups, but... it's Sonic as opposed to Kirby, so the matchup is still similar between the two of them.

Watch this set between SuperGirlKels and Nairo. She goes Kirby the first two games because she believes the Sonic/ZSS matchup to be worse than the Kirby/ZSS matchup, and sure enough she does decent game 1, even though she loses. However, by game 2 Nairo has adapted to fighting Kirby in neutral and bodies her, causing her to switch back to Sonic, and she does comparably if not slightly better than how she does game 1. After the fact, Nairo himself even stated that he believes Sonic to be a harder matchup for ZSS than Kirby.

Is there anyway to like this post more than once? Couldnt have said it better myself.

 

[FallofBrawl]

60 MB is pretty big for one character, probably a stage.engine change coming over too.

Speaking of stage.. how would the stage list look if Yoshi's Island from 3DS was ported to Wii U?

EDIT: You can't base an MU with a match of arguably the 2nd best player and someone else. A more comparable ZSS would probably be Bread.

 

[Das Koopa]

Well, at this this won't affect GOML at all. Lol.

 

[DblCrest]

Kirby's theory in the MU is based on the fact that he crouches under most of her neutral tools

The Kirby crouch meme needs to die. XD

 

[UberMadman]

EDIT: You can't base an MU with a match of arguably the 2nd best player and someone else. A more comparable ZSS would probably be Bread.

Kels is arguably one of the best Sonics, if not THE best Sonic in the world right now, she's not a random at all. That said, I may not be fairly assessing her Kirby play. Perhaps a more "skilled" Kirby would do better than she did vs. Nairo, but I highly doubt it.