Okay, well. It is a pretty bad match-up from my perspective, the only factor that really prevents it from being completely hellish for Ganon is MK's weight (aerial down b kills at 70-80% if I'm not mistaken, and f tilt is scary at the ledge). MK can't afford to make many mistakes, but he does have the tools to avoid putting himself in that position in the first place.
If we're going off theory, it's horrible. MK can abuse his neutral options (frame 3 d tilt, dair camping, etc) and Ganon can't safely or quickly respond. From my experience, Ganon has to rely on jab and d tilt (it outranges possibly all of MK's moves, and kills ~100%), along with usmash baiting, to try and keep MK out. From neutral, Ganon has a bad time in disadvantage. He doesn't really get laddered anymore, and even in the instances he does, he'll rarely die from it due to his weight. Regardless, Ganon has such a difficult time landing, and MK can easily exploit this (but wizkick is pretty scary even though it's unsafe).
On the other hand, Meta Knight can get out of disadvantage for free (though he does not want to take a stray hit from something like a uair) with his jumps, 3 landing aerials, and Cape mix-ups. Recovering is simple, though, again, MK has to respect Ganon's aerials because they all kill damn early. For Ganon, offstage is almost a one-sided affair when he's trying to get back. He's dead if he uses his double jump and take a hit. If he's recovering from far, MK can just go deep and bait an airdodge and then punish with a nair or bair, or any aerial for the matter. It's important for MK to go far offstage because then he won't have to contend with the absurdly large hitbox on the end of Ganon's up b, and while kill-suiciding with Flame Choke is a thing, it's far too risky for it to make a major difference.
Killing is hard to decide. Ganondorf has high power across a lot of his kit, but MK has kill set-ups and his safe f smash. He'll die really early if he commits to something unsafe or Ganon makes a read, but Ganon really can't do much to avoid dash attack -> upb (which is easy given Ganon's physics), d tilt set-ups, and usmash to finish juggles.
Now, that is all in theory. In theory, I assume that the MK player will abuse his safe moves, and not commit to unsafe options. In theory, this MU could be 80-20. However, in practice, players make dumb mistakes, and Ganon
thrives off of these. He only needs a couple of solid hits and he's good, so going by this, it's 70-30 IMO. Meta Knight wins by a considerable amount, but that doesn't mean it's a free win, because the MK player has to play very carefully against Ganon. There have been a few times where I've been juggling Ganondorf, only to let my guard down, disregard him, and die to an aerial wizkick.
This is unlike pre-patch where I would reason this MU was as bad as 90-10 lol. It was
vs
all over again.
