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2020 US Presidential Election Discussion

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I’m reading some texts I sent to my less politically informed mother and sister from early September where I predicted a Trump victory... past me is supposed to be dumb not smart.
 
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I just realized something.

It would be a miracle. HOWEVER, if Biden takes Georgia, he's winning this.

Because if Georgia turns to Biden, then Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan will very well follow.

Also, mail ins are Biden's saving grace. Even if Trump takes Georgia and North Carolina, Biden could still very well win with Pennsylvania and Michigan, or Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
StoicPhantom said:
Comparing current maps to 2016 they both seem to be similar with the exception of Monroe county in PA breaking for Trump when it went Clinton in 2016. Unless Biden significantly swings a county in Wisconsin then all three will possibly go to Trump.
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Damn, if Biden does not win Pennsylvania, it will be tough. He will need Georgia if he loses Pennsylvania.
 
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ShinyLegendary said:
Damn, if Biden does not win Pennsylvania, it will be tough. He will need Georgia if he loses Pennsylvania.
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Well, there's still a fair amount of votes to be counted and the current map still looks a little shaky, so there might still be a chance for Biden there. I'm not so confident about his chances in the other two though.
 
Teeb147

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I think it's better if it ends more split between them. Is a draw possible? that would be neat to see.
 
Cosmic77

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I'm just gonna go ahead and call Georgia for Trump.

With less than 20% of the vote remaining and Trump with a nearly six point advantage, I don't know how Biden can recover. Just seems unrealistic at this point.
 
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StoicPhantom said:
It's not impossible with how close things have been getting, but it will end up in the courts and you will have another incident like Florida in the 2000 election.
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Autumn Breeze said:
Honestly given how they blatantly screwed over Al Gore in 2000 I’m surprised I ever had any faith in our electoral system to begin with.
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A part of me is convinced that the establishment set up George Bush, because they would know he would lead to horrible endless wars, which give the wealthy oil. What I mean is they planned for Bush to beat Al Gore, even before the election started. Especially because they had eight years of Bill Clinton, who was a neoliberal Democrat. However, neoliberal Democrats are even too much for some in the establishment.

My question is, am I wearing a tinfoil hat? Does this sound strange?
 
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ShinyLegendary said:
A part of me is convinced that the establishment set up George Bush, because they would know he would lead to horrible endless wars, which give the wealthy oil. What I mean is they planned for Bush to beat Al Gore, even before the election started. Especially because they had eight years of Bill Clinton, who was a neoliberal Democrat. However, neoliberal Democrats are even too much for some in the establishment.

My question is, am I wearing a tinfoil hat? Does this sound strange?
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Yeah a bit too tinfoil for my tastes.
 
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I was watching CNN's analysis on what could happen and if Biden wins Nevada and Trump wins Georgia then it could come down to Michigan and Wisconsin without it mattering if who wins PA. If Trump wins Michigan and Wisconsin in that scenario then it doesn't matter if Biden wins PA.

ShinyLegendary said:
My question is, am I wearing a tinfoil hat? Does this sound strange?
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Well, I guess that would depend on who you view as the establishment. The oil industry would have preferred Bush over Gore's environmentalism and climate change policies. And the Supreme Court deciding things in Bush's favor effectively tells you who their corporate masters preferred.

So they could have wanted him to win although I don't think they can mastermind things to the extent that everything will go their way 100%, as we can see with Donald Trump not being their preferred candidate.
 
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You know, Georgia and North Carolina are not free for Trump. Georgia has slightly turned towards Biden's favor.

Edit: If Biden wins Georgia, that is huge.
Autumn Breeze said:
Yeah a bit too tinfoil for my tastes.
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StoicPhantom said:
I was watching CNN's analysis on what could happen and if Biden wins Nevada and Trump wins Georgia then it could come down to Michigan and Wisconsin without it mattering if who wins PA. If Trump wins Michigan and Wisconsin in that scenario then it doesn't matter if Biden wins PA.
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I'm sorry, lol.

However, the 2000 Florida incident was definitely caused by the establishment. The electoral college went in their way to make Al Gore lose.
 
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Teeb147

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Well, guess I'll have to sleep on it and see what the results are on the other side.
 
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Both Wisconsin and Georgia have less than 10% of the vote left, and Trump is up by roughly 4 and 2.5 points respectively in each state.

Doesn't seem likely that Trump would lose either.
 
Cutie Gwen

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I think this is worth noting

Mail-ins coming in late really could make a big change as it's neck and neck with 225-213 in Biden's favour
 
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Even if Biden wins the Democrats have been getting beat elsewhere. Not only have they failed to break the Republican majority in the Senate so far, but they're losing ground in the House. If this keeps up then a Biden win will only be a symbolic victory.
 
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Cutie Gwen said:
I think this is worth noting

Mail-ins coming in late really could make a big change as it's neck and neck with 225-213 in Biden's favour
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Mail-ins are Biden's only saving grace. Right now things are looking bleak, but for states that Biden needs like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, or Michigan, this could be huge.

Also, Idaho and Florida are pretty deep blue. Could Biden take back one of those states?
 
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There was a problem fetching the tweet

There is a certain irony to the demographic that the Dems have been demonizing being their strongest in this election. This is shaping up to be an utter defeat on every level for the Democrats at this point.
 
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StoicPhantom said:
There was a problem fetching the tweet
your post

There is a certain irony to the demographic that the Dems have been demonizing being their strongest in this election. This is shaping up to be an utter defeat on every level for the Democrats at this point.
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Yeah, the Democrats have not learned from 2016.

However, I do not think Biden has lost yet. It is incredibly close in Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

If Biden wins a few of those states, he easily wins the entire election. I probably said this a million times, but mail-ins always favor the Democrats, so mail-ins will give Joe Biden a needed boost.

Right now I would say there is no definitive winner. Biden or Trump could take this. However, another part deeper inside me wants to say Biden is going to win.

One thing to note here is that Trump is trying to close the votes, and the supreme court is on his side. That is concerning.
 
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ShinyLegendary said:
It is incredibly close in Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
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I have a feeling that Trump will take Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. So it would just up to Georgia. But it looks like these states are signaling that they will have the results tomorrow, so there's not much point in staying up any later. I'm out for now and hopefully I'll be able to sleep.
 
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StoicPhantom said:
I have a feeling that Trump will take Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. So it would just up to Georgia. But it looks like these states are signaling that they will have the results tomorrow, so there's not much point in staying up any later. I'm out for now and hopefully I'll be able to sleep.
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Good night!

It's sad that we are clinging to hope on a person that we clearly both despise. (Biden)
 
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Will

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From what the map is currently showing, Trump is gonna take this by snagging the rest of the swing states. I don't think the remaining two left-leaning states add up the 32 points needed to win.
 
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GenoDoge said:
I think Biden is gonna win Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and maybe Michigan.
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Currently only Nevada and Michigan are democrat-leaning, the others are seeming to be in Trump's favor.
 
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Will said:
If he manages to win, that is. It's looking like a Trump win here, man.
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I'm holding out. If Biden wins Neveda and Wisconsin he just needs either Georgia, Pennsylvania, or Michigan. I think it could spin in anyone's favor, but Biden is not out of the running yet.
 
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GenoDoge said:
I'm holding out. If Biden wins Neveda and Wisconsin he just needs either Georgia, Pennsylvania, or Michigan. I think it could spin in anyone's favor, but Biden is not out of the running yet.
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Oh he can win, but Trump has the high ground right now.
 
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Alright, so updates:

Nevada is looking good for Biden right now.

Wisconsin flipped towards Biden. That is pretty huge. One thing to note is that in 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by .2%.

If Biden wins Nevada and Wisconsin, he just needs Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Georgia, and he wins the election.
 
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ShinyLegendary said:
Alright, so updates:

Nevada is looking good for Biden right now.

Wisconsin flipped towards Biden. That is pretty huge. One thing to note is that in 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by .2%.

If Biden wins Nevada and Wisconsin, he just needs Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Georgia, and he wins the election.
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Yeah, there's a chance Biden could win even without Pennsylvania.

I don't know if it is obvious who I'm rooting for (trying to stay politically neutral in my discussion), but I'm hoping they win.
 
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GenoDoge said:
I don't know if it is obvious who I'm rooting for (trying to stay politically neutral in my discussion), but I'm hoping they win.
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I'm not big on whoever wins because I hate both of them. Either it's four more years or a new four years of something else that's also not really my cup of tea.
 
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Cutie Gwen

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Looking at how this utterly bizarre system works, 13% of Michigan's votes are left with 1.4 difference in Trump's favour. Georgia is pretty much locked down for Trump as there's only 6% left with a lead of 2.2 and while Pennsylvania has 36% of the votes left, Trump's got a 12.6 advantage. Biden's best chance here is Michigan. Why can't the US have a normal voting system like everyone else
 
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Cutie Gwen said:
Looking at how this utterly bizarre system works, 13% of Michigan's votes are left with 1.4 difference in Trump's favour. Georgia is pretty much locked down for Trump as there's only 6% left with a lead of 2.2 and while Pennsylvania has 36% of the votes left, Trump's got a 12.6 advantage. Biden's best chance here is Michigan. Why can't the US have a normal voting system like everyone else
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People have to learn that America isn't a democracy.
GenoDoge said:
I really think Biden's chances are good.

We shall see, but I'm staying confident.
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Same.
 
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