2020 US Presidential Election Discussion

[Strong Badam]

You would need to ensure that people actually have health plans before that. Prospects aren't great on that front as a Biden presidency and Republican Senate is almost guaranteed austerity.

Right, if the GOP Senate majority holds (which it looks like it will), all indications point to the first 2 years of Biden's term being basically executive orders only. Mitch McConnell will play hardball just like he did from Jan 2015-Jan 2017 in Obama's last two years and in Jan 2019-now since the dems overtook the House. Rather than actually holding votes on things, resulting in a voting record on bills/giving GOP senators an opportunity to break ranks & vote something into law in a bipartisan sense, McConnell just ignores them and doesn't allow a vote to occur in the first place unless they bill lines up with what he wants.

 

[Shroob]

I will say, it's way too early to call Arizona. I dunno why the AP has given it to Biden, but there's only 86% of the votes in, and it seems pretty unanimous a lot of red votes are waiting to be counted there. He has a strong lead, but I'm not confident that it'll hold there.

Nevada is frustrating. Both cities that actually matter are leaning blue but "Lol won't know til tomorrow."

Georgia has been a bit of a shock. Biden's slowly been creeping back up, there's currently, afaik, only a .8% difference between them, and afaik, the majority of the votes they're counting now are from blue counties.

Pennsylvania is the state to watch. I've seen Trump's lead slip from a 6%, to a 5%, to a 4%, to a 3%, lead just today, and considering he's threatening lawsuits against Georgia and PA, it seems like they struck fear in him.


Still very much anyone's race, but Trump is very scared with all these legal threats. He's been losing his hold on Pennsylvania hard all day, and even without Arizona, Biden wins if he gets that alone.

 

[Deleted member]

Man, it is so annoying that they are delaying the counts. I know they need time, but why not show the results as soon as possible?

Just announce the winner already, please.

Still very much anyone's race, but Trump is very scared with all these legal threats. He's been losing his hold on Pennsylvania hard all day, and even without Arizona, Biden wins if he gets that alone.

I would say the victory is leaning towards Biden.

As Pennsylvania and Georgia slip towards Biden, Biden can win with those two states without Nevada and Arizona. Considering Biden will likely get Nevada, and he is winning in Arizona, I think Biden is our new president.

I am just hoping that Trump does not have the power to stop the votes.

 

[Shroob]

Man, it is so annoying that they are delaying the counts. I know they need time, but why not show the results as soon as possible?

Just announce the winner already, please.

I would say the victory is leaning towards Biden.

As Pennsylvania and Georgia slip towards Biden, Biden can win with those two states without Nevada and Arizona. Considering Biden will likely get Nevada, and he is winning in Arizona, I think Biden is our new president.

I am just hoping that Trump does not have the power to stop the votes.

Overconfidence is a fool's mistress.

I'm not saying **** until more votes come in. Arizona could easily flip red for all we know, and Nevada is legitimately only an 8k lead(Granted, no one ****ing lives in Nevada).

 

[Cosmic77]

From what I've been hearing, North Carolina is pretty much done but they haven't reported it yet. Same with Georgia. Trump is likely to win both. Pennsylvania is more up in the air, but it seems like Trump is holding on to the lead more than Biden would like. I think someone mentioned this already, but Arizona was prematurely called for Biden. Way too close to call it, and no one really should've projected a winner yet.

Oh, and Alaska. No idea why they refuse to call that one. I'd be shocked if there was even the slightest hint it could turn blue.

 

[Shroob]

From what I've been hearing, North Carolina is pretty much done but they haven't reported it yet. Same with Georgia. Trump is likely to win both. Pennsylvania is more up in the air, but it seems like Trump is holding on to the lead more than Biden would like. I think someone mentioned this already, but Arizona was prematurely called for Biden. Way too close to call it, and no one really should've projected a winner yet.

Oh, and Alaska. No idea why they refuse to call that one. I'd be shocked if there was even the slightest hint it could turn blue.

I don't think Trump's holding a lead in Pennsylvania that well at all tbh.

He went from a 6% lead to 3% in just today, and that gap's getting smaller and smaller, now it's under 3%. It's still anyone's race, and the gap's getting closer and closer, but he's definitely shook by it if his demand for legal action is anything to go by.

 

[Teeb147]

I don't think Trump's holding a lead in Pennsylvania that well at all tbh.

He went from a 6% lead to 3% in just today, and that gap's getting smaller and smaller, now it's under 3%. It's still anyone's race, and the gap's getting closer and closer, but he's definitely shook by it if his demand for legal action is anything to go by.

The reason that Trump is concerned and might take further action is because some places in pennsylvania denied entry to the republican poll observers/watchers, that have a legal right to observe the process. There's also some other things that happened but anyway, they'll probably only take it further if they actually lose there.

 

[Shroob]

The reason that Trump is concerned and might take further action is because some places in pennsylvania denied entry to the republican poll observers/watchers, that have a legal right to observe the process. There's also some other things that happened but anyway, they'll probably only take it further if they actually lose there.

Or, more logically, like he's doing with Wisconsin, Michigan and Georgia, he's scared.

Trump got a massive lead in Pennsylvania due to show up votes, but the absentee ballot has heavily favored Biden, Trump's lead has slipped hard extremely hard all day due to them.


Now, like I said, it's still anyone's race, but I've been watching Pennsylvania all day, and the day started at +6, then +5, then +4, then +3, and now it's down to 2.6%, with still 11% of the votes unaccounted for.


Trump's biggest hurdle is going to be getting a boon from Absentee ballots, which, at least as of now, have not favored him at all, seemingly nearly being anywhere from 8-2 or 9-1 in Biden's favor. Now, they could absolutely change, but there's still a lot of time left for Pennsylvania.


I don't think Biden has this in the bag AT ALL, but unless there's a massive stack of mail-in Trump votes that we've yet to see, which is very possible, Trump blew his load in Penn early it seems, and at the current pace, Biden legitimately seems to be on a fast track to usurp him. Mind, you, Biden can lose literally every other state as long as he claims Pennsylvania at this point.

 

[Deleted member]

I mean I am already calling Biden for president, but if Biden wins Pennsylvania, then I think that is officially curtains.

 

[Shroob]

I mean I am already calling Biden for president, but if Biden wins Pennsylvania, then I think that is officially curtains.

And I think you're crazy to call it this early tbh.


Things 'look' good, but things can change at the drop of a hat. I'm predicting Arizona to go red, and at that point, who ****ing knows about Nevada(Not that it really matters). I could not have expected Michigan and Wisconsin to flip overnight, things can and will change drastically even in the 11th hour, things you won't expect.

 

[GenoDoge]

I think Biden will win Georgia, Nevada, and likely even Pennsylvania. I think he's likely won Arizona as the AP have called. I think Alaska is a gurantee win for Trump, and North Carolina is a toss-up.

 

[Shroob]

I think Biden will win Georgia, Nevada, and likely even Pennsylvania. I think he's likely won Arizona as the AP have called. I think Alaska is a gurantee win for Trump, and North Carolina is a toss-up.

I mean, why are you confident he's won Georgia? Trump's ahead, if only by 25k votes. I also find Arizona highly suspect since there's reports of a lot of red votes being added in.

 

[GenoDoge]

I mean, why are you confident he's won Georgia? Trump's ahead, if only by 25k votes. I also find Arizona highly suspect since there's reports of a lot of red votes being added in.

Georgia has like 90k votes left mainly from Atlanta and Savannah, big blue areas.

 

[Deleted member]

I mean, why are you confident he's won Georgia? Trump's ahead, if only by 25k votes. I also find Arizona highly suspect since there's reports of a lot of red votes being added in.

Even if Biden loses Arizona, he's still going strong in Pennsylvania and Georgia, where Trump's leads are razor thin right now.

 

[Shroob]

Georgia has like 90k votes left mainly from Atlanta and Savannah, big blue areas.

This is true, but I'm not counting anything right now.

Even if Biden loses Arizona, he's still going strong in Pennsylvania and Georgia, where Trump's leads are razor thin right now.

I do agree that his strongest foothold is Pennsylvania, and as long as he keeps up his current pace, he will win Penn, but that's yet to be seen. While it does seem like Trump blew his load early and the majority of Dems chose mail in ballots in Penn, I'm still bracing for a dump of Trump mail ins from red counties.

 

[Strong Badam]

The reason that Trump is concerned and might take further action is because some places in pennsylvania denied entry to the republican poll observers/watchers, that have a legal right to observe the process. There's also some other things that happened but anyway, they'll probably only take it further if they actually lose there.

This idea keeps getting spread around a bit, and that's probably because there was a scenario that can be easily mistaken for what you're describing here. I can find numerous sources describing that what actually happened was a bit different. These sources indicate that the paperwork for the poll watcher in question was mismatched, and that's why they were initially turned away; that specific poll watcher was allowed entry quickly after the initial misunderstanding was cleared up. Additionally, there's no evidence that any other similar case happened.

"It is true a poll watcher was turned away from a Philadelphia polling station due to a legal misunderstanding but he was allowed back in after the mistake was recognized. This appears to be an isolated incident; no other incidents have been reported to Philadelphia's Election Task Force."

Fact check: Poll watcher turned away at Philadelphia polling station in misunderstanding

A viral video shows a man refused entry to a Philadelphia polling station. Upon realization of the mistake, he was permitted inside.

www.usatoday.com

The actual process of counting the ballots within Pennsylvania has been livestreamed. I'm not sure the idea of contesting the vote count in Pennsylvania has much legal standing, but you certainly don't need any legal standing to begin a lawsuit; only to win one.

 

[Teeb147]

This idea keeps getting spread around a bit, and that's probably because there was a scenario that can be easily mistaken for what you're describing here. I can find numerous sources describing that what actually happened was a bit different. These sources indicate that the paperwork for the poll watcher in question was mismatched, and that's why they were initially turned away; that specific poll watcher was allowed entry quickly after the initial misunderstanding was cleared up. Additionally, there's no evidence that any other similar case happened.

"It is true a poll watcher was turned away from a Philadelphia polling station due to a legal misunderstanding but he was allowed back in after the mistake was recognized. This appears to be an isolated incident; no other incidents have been reported to Philadelphia's Election Task Force."

Fact check: Poll watcher turned away at Philadelphia polling station in misunderstanding

A viral video shows a man refused entry to a Philadelphia polling station. Upon realization of the mistake, he was permitted inside.

www.usatoday.com

The actual process of counting the ballots within Pennsylvannia has been livestreamed. I'm not sure the idea of contesting the vote count in Pennsylvannia has much legal standing, but you certainly don't need any legal standing to begin a lawsuit; only to win one.

I heard other stuff, but anyway I decided it's not worth my time to try to debate any of this. Plus I live in Canada so it's not like I have as high a stake in it like others.

 

[Shroob]

Wow, there's literally a .4% difference in Georgia right now.


If Biden flips Georgia I'm going to be shocked. It's not enough to win him the election. He'd still need 1 vote if you remove Arizona until further notice, but jesus christ it's close.

 

[GenoDoge]

Wow, there's literally a .4% difference in Georgia right now.


If Biden flips Georgia I'm going to be shocked. It's not enough to win him the election. He'd still need 1 vote if you remove Arizona until further notice, but jesus christ it's close.

I feel like Nevada and Georgia are almost locks for Biden. Pretty confident Biden won Arizona too. Pretty sure Trump will win North Carolina and Alaska, and Pennsylvania might be close but it is leaning towards Biden.

 

[Shroob]

I feel like Nevada and Georgia are almost locks for Biden. Pretty confident Biden won Arizona too. Pretty sure Trump will win North Carolina and Alaska, and Pennsylvania might be close but it is leaning towards Biden.

Nevada is....??????. So few votes are cast that it feels too early. The BIG cities are leaning blue, which, in Nevada, that's basically all that matters since most of the state is a desolate wasteland, but considering how few votes there are right now, I'm not going to prematurely call it.


With Arizona, still not confident.

 

[GenoDoge]

Nevada is....??????. So few votes are cast that it feels too early. The BIG cities are leaning blue, which, in Nevada, that's basically all that matters since most of the state is a desolate wasteland, but considering how few votes there are right now, I'm not going to prematurely call it.


With Arizona, still not confident.

One thing is certain: Biden has many different paths he can take for victory, but Trump does not.

 

[Shroob]

Can I just say, completely off topic but.

Man I hate Nevada.


I had to take a car trip there once when my buddy went to Vegas an.... jesus christ hours upon hours in a hot car with no AC in the middle of a desert and literal nothing will make you never want to go back rofl.

 

[GenoDoge]

Hoping sometime today (the 5th) we finally know the winner.

 

[Deleted member]

Wow, there's literally a .4% difference in Georgia right now.


If Biden flips Georgia I'm going to be shocked. It's not enough to win him the election. He'd still need 1 vote if you remove Arizona until further notice, but jesus christ it's close.

.4%

Goodness, this is extremely close. If Biden wins Georgia, I feel like that is pretty much game at this point, and Biden is president. He won't need Arizona.

If Biden loses Georgia, he still has Pennsylvania as a large state for him to take. And if he loses Pennsylvania, then he still has Nevada and Arizona. I am a bit unsure about Nevada and Arizona, but I am feeling pretty comfortable Biden wins, as Biden had a pretty solid lead in Arizona, and Hillary won Nevada in 2016.

It's looking like Biden will be president.

 

[GenoDoge]

.4%

Goodness, this is extremely close. If Biden wins Georgia, I feel like that is pretty much game at this point, and Biden is president. He won't need Arizona.

If Biden loses Georgia, he still has Pennsylvania as a large state for him to take. And if he loses Pennsylvania, then he still has Nevada and Arizona. I am a bit unsure about Nevada and Arizona, but I am feeling pretty comfortable Biden wins, as Biden had a pretty solid lead in Arizona, and Hillary won Nevada in 2016.

It's looking like Biden will be president.

North Carolina and Alaska are looking pretty pointless at this point IMO.

 

[Deleted member]

North Carolina and Alaska are looking pretty pointless at this point IMO.

North Carolina I am feeling Trump will take, and Alaska is quite Republican. We won't get results from Alaska for a long time, because Alaska is very far away, but I think Alaska and North Carolina's results won't be as impactful as the results in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.

 

[GenoDoge]

North Carolina I am feeling Trump will take, and Alaska is quite Republican. We won't get results from Alaska for a long time, because Alaska is very far away, but I think Alaska's results won't be as impactful as the results in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.

Yeah, Alaska is the least valuable state left (only worth 3 electoral votes), so IMO it's fine we don't know it. My predictions right now are:

Alaska - Safe Trump
Arizona - Very Likely Biden
Georgia - Very Likely Biden
Nevada - Safe Biden
North Carolina - Very Likely Trump
Pennsylvania - Likely Biden

 

[Deleted member]

Yeah, Alaska is the least valuable state left (only worth 3 electoral votes), so IMO it's fine we don't know it. My predictions right now are:

Alaska - Safe Trump
Arizona - Very Likely Biden
Georgia - Very Likely Biden
Nevada - Safe Biden
North Carolina - Very Likely Trump
Pennsylvania - Likely Biden

You know, if this holds value, then Biden would be in an incredible spot.

Biden just needs Nevada and Arizona to win.

Biden could even take Pennsylvania alone and win.

 

[Strong Badam]

Right, Biden's in a position where he can take any two of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, or singularly take Pennsylvania. Trump cannot afford to lose any of those states.

 

[Deleted member]

Right, Biden's in a position where he can take any two of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, or singularly take Pennsylvania. Trump cannot afford to lose any of those states.

Honestly, this is why I believe that Biden will win the election.

Anything could change, but right now, the situation clearly favors Biden.

 

[---]

It ain't over til it's over, though a strong showing in the electoral college, at least in theory, could help a little bit with Biden's political capital and fending off potential political shenanigans come transition; or that could just be Trump having drilled into my head how large his 2016 win was.

Winning the election is the first stepping stone. Making it to January 20th with the White House still in tact is the next, give or take Trump being willing to leave.

Am just glad for now my State flipped and that Senator Peters kept his seat. Having moved earlier this year, it's going to be interesting to be represented by a Democrat in the both the federal & state House for the first time in my life. I know my Mother is bummed about Amash stepping down, as his replacement will be more lock-step with the modern GOP.

 

[Shroob]

I'm looking at this way more cautiously than anyone, because I know how quickly things can go south for either side.


Last night, I was full on convinced that Wisconsin and Michigan were lost causes for Blue, and then, well, look what I woke up to.


****'s way too tight for me to be confident in anything right now, things can change.

 

[drag0nscythe]

Lets hope the counting continues and states flip blue. Would be real nice to see georgia go blue.

 

[Sucumbio]

AP called Arizona too soon it seems...

 

[Strong Badam]

AP called Arizona too soon it seems...

Doesn't seem like it to me; a large majority of the remaining vote (~333k of 391k) would be in Maricopa county which Biden leads in among currently counted votes. It's certainly possible that remaining votes lean heavily for Trump and close the gap, but it's statistically unlikely.
Trump would need to earn 58.8% of all remaining uncounted votes in the state in order to tie it up.

Worth noting is that Fox called AZ for Biden as well. Certainly nothing wrong with caution, though.

 

[Dutch Raikuna]

Been paying attention to this via BBC News.

I think it will be Nevada and Arizona to win for Biden but could go either way.

Still a Biden win as I've mentioned here is good for me and where I am from, given he's a proud Irish American. Remember watching the speech Obama gave in my hometown of Belfast, Ireland the day Trump got elected, still brings a sense of hope to me.

 

[Deleted member]

I think Biden won Arizona.

Also, Nevada is taking quite long, but apparently, Biden is doing well in there.

 

[drag0nscythe]

I think Biden won Arizona.

Also, Nevada is taking quite long, but apparently, Biden is doing well in there.

Good. but come on Georgia. lets see blue.

 

[Shroob]

Literally a .2% difference in Georgia right now. 9,500 votes, and most of the ones left are mail ins from Atlanta, a primarily blue area. Definitely nothing sold here yet, but jesus this is close.


Nevada's on yet another break so....lol. 538 says to just give it to Biden "Because the two big districts left are blue districts", but I digress. It's still too close there imo.


I have no idea what's holding up North Carolina, or why it's been at 95% for days now.


Who gives a **** about Alaska.


Pennsylvania, even I have to admit, is trending a Biden takeover now, and I have 0 idea how it happened. Trump started with a +13 lead, which dropped to +6 yesterday, and now it's a +1.1 lead, with still 7% of the vote missing, and Trump's under 50% now, with even Biden leading in mail ins from red districts by wide swathes. This race is insane.


Arizona is something I do not understand at all. Why on Earth did the AP, the "99% correct AP", give it to Biden soo early? Hell, why did FOX NEWS give it to Biden? FOX news of all people, ya know, the right leaning news site? When places like CNN or MSNBC are still saying Arizona is way too close to call? Something is strange about Arizona, I do not understand at all.

 

[Deleted member]

Duuuuude, it is SO close in Georgia and Pennsylvania right now.