2020 US Presidential Election Discussion

[Shroob]

Duuuuude, it is SO close in Georgia and Pennsylvania right now.

3,400 votes.

One blue district could seal Georgia as Blue.



This **** is what 2020 was building up to all this time, peak insanity.

 

[drag0nscythe]

Georgia is 3000 off. Lets hope there are 3001 more blue votes.

 

[Shroob]

And Pennsylvania keeps trucking. The gap between Biden and Trump is now literally 1%, with according to the AP, 11% of the vote left.


I hope to god I never live through another election like this in my life, I've lost years off my life due to this **** lol.

 

[Deleted member]

Man, why is Nevada taking it so slow, when many people just want the election to conclude?

 

[Shroob]

Man, why is Nevada taking it so slow, when many people just want the election to conclude?

No idea, and they pretty much said they're not gonna move til either Friday or the weekend iirc.


TBH, by the time they ever move again, PA and GA will probably be called at this rate.


As expected, Trump got a boost in Arizona but Biden still in the lead there, for now. Arizona seems to finally be awake.

 

[Deleted member]

Man, Biden is losing by only 3,000 votes in Georgia, and Biden is losing by less than a percent in Pennsylvania.

I think it is extremely likely for Biden to take at least one of those states.

 

[Shroob]

One thing to remember about Georgia is that even if it flips tonight, it's not over. Military and overseas ballots arrive tomorrow, about 9k, and the military usually runs red.

 

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

One thing to remember about Georgia is that even if it flips tonight, it's not over. Military and overseas ballots arrive tomorrow, about 9k, and the military usually runs red.

And oversea non-military usually runs Blue. I’m so glad I sent my oversea absentee ballot back in early September. I even got confirmation that it was received and processed. Some teachers who work here in Japan sent their ballots in November 2nd or 3rd in regular non-express mail. I sent mine to the US Embassy in Tokyo to ensure they send it via priority mail because that’s what we were told to do to ensure our mail gets there regardless of COVID mail restrictions. A lot of people didn’t know though or didn’t bother checking and sent it through the mail which could take weeks to get there.

 

[Strong Badam]

Yeah, let's get some substance here, rather than just saying what we think/feel and leaving it at that. Qualifying our statements with evidence/reasoning can help us avoid situations where one person says one thing and the another says another without any substance and reach an impasse quite quickly.
I did this earlier today with Arizona, indicating why I think Arizona is unlikely to flip. Instead of saying "I don't think so," I did some math and analysis as to why.

Doesn't seem like it to me; a large majority of the remaining vote (~333k of 391k) would be in Maricopa county which Biden leads in among currently counted votes. It's certainly possible that remaining votes lean heavily for Trump and close the gap, but it's statistically unlikely.
Trump would need to earn 58.8% of all remaining uncounted votes in the state in order to tie it up.

Worth noting is that Fox called AZ for Biden as well. Certainly nothing wrong with caution, though.

Shroob's point about overseas military ballots is a great one; it's known that military personnel tend to vote Republican, of course depending on other factors. It remains to be seen how Trump's statements on the military this year (claiming that those who die in the military are "losers" and "suckers") have impacted that, or if it hasn't changed anything on that front.

 

[Shroob]

Also, a county in Pittsburg with about 35k votes to its name is not allowed to count until sometime tomorrow, said county is heavy blue leaning.


I honestly expect Biden's Penn. growth(......unfortunate), to continue since he's constantly pulling in 70-80% margins and the gap keeps getting smaller and smaller.


Arizona is what to watch right now, and it is shaky as hell. It could easily flip red, but who knows.

 

[drag0nscythe]

Also, a county in Pittsburg with about 35k votes to its name is not allowed to count until sometime tomorrow, said county is heavy blue leaning.


I honestly expect Biden's Penn. growth(......unfortunate), to continue since he's constantly pulling in 70-80% margins and the gap keeps getting smaller and smaller.


Arizona is what to watch right now, and it is shaky as hell. It could easily flip red, but who knows.

That sucks. Why have they not put arizona back in the running. If it can flip, official tallies should show that.

 

[Shroob]

That sucks. Why have they not put arizona back in the running. If it can flip, official tallies should show that.

Fox and the AP are doubling, nay, tripling, down hard that it will not flip, something which even I don't understand.


Hell, the Arizona counting is done tonight, so we won't even know more until tomorrow.

 

[Strong Badam]

Some new numbers per ABC:

Here's some quick math on what percentage of remaining ballots would need to go to the candidate currently behind for the state to be flipped, assuming these numbers are accurate (they are estimations and could fluctuate).

 

[Shroob]

Some new numbers per ABC:
View attachment 291253

Here's some quick math on what percentage of remaining ballots would need to go to the candidate currently behind for the state to be flipped, assuming these numbers are accurate (they are estimations and could fluctuate).

View attachment 291254

And now to add to this, CNN is reporting the gap has closed down to 26k in Pennsylvania.


Biden's mail voting gains cannot be stopped, Pennsylvania is his at this rate, easily. And if he gets it, that's all she wrote.

 

[Deleted member]

Considering Biden is getting extremely close to beating Trump in Pennsylvania and Georgia, and is winning in Arizona and Nevada, I think it is safe to say that Biden is our president.

Trump's leads are diminishing by the second.

 

[Shroob]

Considering Biden is getting extremely close to beating Trump in Pennsylvania and Georgia, and is winning in Arizona and Nevada, I think it is safe to say that Biden is our president.

Trump's leads are diminishing by the second.

I will say that Biden is dominating Pennsylvania, that is undeniable, but I will hold my final say until it actually happens. I just cannot bring myself to celebrate prematurely, I will not be a Trump and claim victory early.

 

[Deleted member]

WOW. Trump's lead in Pennsylvania is UNDER 19K.

 

[Shroob]

WOW. Trump's lead in Pennsylvania is UNDER 19K.

It's only going to get smaller thanks to places like Philly still having huge stockpiles of votes uncounted. Biden's not slowing down, and theoretically, assuming no change, the state will be flipped by tomorrow sometime.

 

[Strong Badam]

Y'all remember that Excel sheet I've been tracking and manually updating with like % of remaining vote needed to flip?

This page is automatically updated and better, Can also enable desktop notifications instead of doomscrolling social media/having news video feeds on in the background.

ANN Election Data

Battleground state changes, updated every five minutes using NYT data.

alex.github.io

The margin in GA is now down to 463. Crazy.

 

[Shroob]

Well


Georgia is blue, and with Biden's current percentage, if it keeps this pace(Which it seems to be doing) it'll stay blue.



The only thing that could swap it back to red now are absentee Military ballots today.




Arizona is still a toss up to me, I'm not confident in it.


Nevada "Should" seem like a toss up to me, but their Attorney General said that 90% of their uncounted votes are all in a blue part of their state.

And now more than ever, Pennsylvania seems like it's in arm's reach.


....is this a last minute blue sweep?

 

[Deleted member]

Oh damn, Georgia is blue???

Yeah, Biden is taking Georgia.

I might have said this lot, but now, I think a Biden victory for this election is basically guaranteed at this point.

 

[Shroob]

Considering how close it'll be, they'll 100% call for a recount, but if Biden builds a lead of a couple thousand, it won't matter.


The bigger issue is, again, the military votes, which we have 0 way of knowing.

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

DDHQ

Live Election Results, Analysis, and Projections

results.decisiondeskhq.com

It's over, everyone. The election has been decided. Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. has been elected to be the 46th president of the United States and Kamala Devi Harris will be the first ever female vice president. Oh I am so relived. :D

 

[drag0nscythe]

Not over yet. But pa and georgia have gone blue. I wonder if we should "stop the count" now.

The answer is no. Even if i want biden to, and there is still a chance trump can win, all votes must be counted.we need an election as fair as possible.

 

[Sucumbio]

He's gonna try to contest every state Biden won with less than a 2% margin. Maybe. 5? Did we learn from Florida fiasco or are we doomed to spend until Christmas fighting over who won.

 

[drag0nscythe]

He's gonna try to contest every state Biden won with less than a 2% margin. Maybe. 5? Did we learn from Florida fiasco or are we doomed to spend until Christmas fighting over who won.

He will. but the thing is that he is losing. and recounts usually do not swap to much. It will be Bush V Gore, but that was a swapped situation in a way. And given the popular vote, I find it very very hard for that train to go anywhere.

 

[Strong Badam]

He's gonna try to contest every state Biden won with less than a 2% margin. Maybe. 5? Did we learn from Florida fiasco or are we doomed to spend until Christmas fighting over who won.

The recount margin thresholds vary by state. Here are the ones that are relevant to the current race:
Arizona: Request if 0.1% or less
Georgia: Request if 0.5% or less
Michigan: Automatic recount if margin is 2,000 votes or less. Candidate can only request a recount if they allege fraud/a mistake and would have had a reasonable chance of winning.
Nevada: Any margin, but it costs a lot of money.
Pennsylvania: Automatic recount if margin 0.5% or less.
Wisconsin: Request if 1% or less

Important to note is that recounts very rarely change the outcome unless the margin is razor thin. I can see that being applicable in Georgia at the moment, and potentially Arizona if Trump continues to make gains in the remaining ballots. Florida had around 6 million votes (a bit less) in 2000 and the recounts only swayed things by a few hundred.

 

[Sucumbio]

So then it's OK that they called Arizona but everyone cautious cause who actually got it wrong and had to take their Al Gore is the next POTUS graphic? I forget and can't use Google atm but I think I'm in your an my wife's camp. We got this.

Change 2020

 

[Strong Badam]

Gore v Bush came down to a singular state, the possibility of that happening here is quite small and continues to narrow as the count continues. Margins for Biden in PA, Nevada, and Georgia continue to grow. The margin in AZ is quite significant at 42k votes/1.3% and its rate of shrinking is small. Trump needs 58% of remaining votes in AZ to flip it.

 

[Sucumbio]

By the by the guardian quoth

"The AP called the race at 2.50am EST Wednesday, after an analysis of ballots cast statewide concluded there were not enough outstanding to allow Trump to catch up. With 80% of the expected vote counted, Biden was ahead by 5 percentage points, with a roughly 130,000-vote lead over Trump, with about 2.6m ballots counted. The remaining ballots left to be counted, including mail-in votes in Maricopa county, where Biden performed strongly, were not enough for Trump to catch up to the former vice-president."

This tells me that there should be strong confidence in a called state but I understand the need to have multiple people involved and why they may temporarily disagree.

Nerve-wracking!

 

[StrangeKitten]

I don't want to call anything prematurely, but I am relieved that things are currently looking good for Biden

 

[Shroob]

Republicans are going hard on the "CONSPIRACY" front, which, tbh I'm a little worried about.


I dunno how likely they could realistically get the SC to tip the entire election into being "Fradulent".

 

[Deleted member]

Here is my prediction:

-Biden will win both Pennsylvania and Georgia.
-Trump will whine and beg for as many recounts as possible.
-At least one state will get a recount.
-Biden will win anyways.

 

[drag0nscythe]

They are not going a little conspiracy. They down right have gone crazy with it.

 

[StrangeKitten]

There was a good amount of conservative fearmongering in 2016 that Obama would refuse to give up the presidency. How painfully ironic that now is, with how Trump is acting...

 

[Shroob]

Trump, "I've won the race, no, not all the votes are counted, but I've won."

Also Trump, "Biden shouldn't say he's won yet. FRADULENT!"


This ****ing guy.

 

[Deleted member]

Trump, "I've won the race, no, not all the votes are counted, but I've won."

Also Trump, "Biden shouldn't say he's won yet. FRADULENT!"


This ****ing guy.

Honestly, I think Biden can safely claim that he won the election.

 

[Shroob]

Honestly, I think Biden can safely claim that he won the election.

Claim? Probably?

Safely? HAHAHAH no. Republicans are going to drag this out as fraudulent/conspiracy until January, then rally for impeachment on those grounds.


AFAIK, Trump's already said that if he loses, he's going to board himself up in the WH. This is not going to be clean, even if Biden claims victory. Trump fanatics are not going to go quietly, nor will their leader.

 

[Sucumbio]

Is there an article on his going underground? Are we gonna pry an insane and demolished human from the dirt like SH? Lol! No really tho I'd love to read up on it.

Meanwhile the GOP is struggling to find the right person to tell Trump it's over if he looses.

 

[Shroob]

I legit don't know why Nevada is dragging its heels.

Just, do they want to drag this out for as long as possible? It's a little over 100k votes.