Your realistic fighter's Pass list

[TCT~Phantom]

Joker
Erdrick
Crash
Banjo/Steve
Lloyd Irving

Wave 2 since at this point I think it might happen

Monster Hunter
Doomslayer
Steve/Banjo
Tracer
Sans

If this is right, I am a god and a prophet.

 

[Deleted member]

Joker
Microsoft Rep
Sylux
Crash
Square Rep

 

[Mogisthelioma]

Keeping in mind the idea that they're all going to be from unrepped series....

1. Joker
2. Squeenix rep (maybe)
3. Indie rep
4. Microsoft rep
5. Bethesda rep

Wave 2?
1. A first part
2. Another first part
3. Lame FE advertisement
4. Crossover fighter from an unexpected series
5. Probably a Mario or Pokemon fighter

 

[Flaxr XIII]

Yes, incredibly vague "rep" names are totally realistic.

 

[Bolshoi]

Joker (Persona 5)
Sans (Undertale)
Slime (Dragon Quest)
Euden (Dragalia Lost)
Waluigi (Saving the best for last)

 

[Idon]

Dante
Ryu Hayabusa
2B
Nightmare
Doomslayer

2B if we're going the "everyone is Joker (recent and popular)"

Otherwise I'd say Erdrick or whatever.

 

[Diddy Kong]

*sigh*

Since I am not real fan of most 3rd party characters outside of Banjo-Kazooie, I'll try to be optimistic.

1. Joker. I wouldn't pick him if he wasn't already confirmed, keep that in mind.
2. Banjo-Kazooie
3. Fire Emblem 3 Houses newcomer. Because **** it, I think it's tradition to have at least one
4. Token Square fighter, and let that be Geno because I'm familiar with him and think it's weird the Mii Costume of him is gone. But it's probably Erdrick?
5. Monster Hunter

 

[shocktarts17]

This may be a misconception I had so I’m checking here to see, but didn’t Reggie say at the VGAs hat all the pass characters would be from new series to smash? I thought I read that somewhere but I don’t actually know if it’s true or not and am checking here for conformation

No thats a misconception, he said they would be new to the series so just not people who have been in Smash before.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

No thats a misconception, he said they would be new to the series so just not people who have been in Smash before.

^this

After all, Everyone Is Here. So there’s no need for Veteran DLC.

 

[WaddleMatt]

Just going to come in and say this...

Reggie did not say it would be unrepped series in DLC that was an error in one article that caught a lot of attention.

Ridiculous that people still believe that statement.

 

[Ultrashroomz]

1. Ren Amamiya (Joker)
2. Sora
3. Dante
4. 2B
5. The unnamed girl from Monolith Soft's concept art thing

 

[Deleted member]

>Joker
>Crash Bandicoot
>Steve
>Erdrick
>Banjo

 

[Ornl]

Reminder : Master Chief, Travis Touchdown, Dante are confirmed not to come in DLC.
A realistic newcomer must be "unique", "different", "exciting", "insuspectable", and "new to the serie".

- Sylux isn't realistic, the Metroid license already has a newcomer.
- Monster Hunter isn't realistic, because the license is already represented.

 

[shocktarts17]

Reminder : Master Chief, Travis Touchdown, Dante are confirmed not to come in DLC.
A realistic newcomer must be "unique", "different", "exciting", "insuspectable", and "new to the serie".

- Sylux isn't realistic, the Metroid license already has a newcomer.
- Monster Hunter isn't realistic, because the license is already represented.

Sylux has as much chance as anyone with Metroid Prime 4 coming this year, Smash 4 had Corrin added when FE got a newcomer on the base roster.
Monster Hunter has a good shot as a fighter because the series was considered important enough to get its own boss, one of only 10 in the entire game and one of only 4 that weren't created for Smash Bros (5 if you count Giga Bowser).

 

[Quetzal77]

2. Sora (watch him be revealed in January)
3. Rex and Pyra (Sakurai likes them, Xenoblade deserves a second rep, and it's odd that neither of them are an assist)
4. Banjo Kazooie (as far as third party fan favourites he's more realistic than Geno or Dante)
5. Character from unannounced game (there has to be advertisement DLC somewhere and I don't think it'll be for FE)

 

[Ornl]

Sylux has as much chance as anyone with Metroid Prime 4 coming this year, Smash 4 had Corrin added when FE got a newcomer on the base roster.
Monster Hunter has a good shot as a fighter because the series was considered important enough to get its own boss, one of only 10 in the entire game and one of only 4 that weren't created for Smash Bros (5 if you count Giga Bowser).

Smash Bros Ultimate DLCs do not have the same policy as for Smash 4.
Concerning Monster Hunter, never Smash Bros would have shifted the realease a boss and his hero in the same game, never. This is a false track, far from being "unsuspected".
________
Edit : Some Prediction by Smashboards community (averages)
Steve 57% / Banjo & Kazooie 21%
Professor Layton 35% / Jibanyan 13% / Katrielle Layton 1.5%
Phoenix Wright 33% / Leon 29% / Jill 18% / Amaterasu 9%
Erdrick 29% / Sora 13% (These 2 reviews are from before the rumor about Erdrick.)
Crash 28%
Rayman 24% (evaluation already downgraded taking into account that Rayman exists in Spirit.)
Doomguy 12%
Ryu Hayabusa 10%
So, why ignore Professor Layton / Jibanyan so much?

 

[shocktarts17]

Smash Bros Ultimate DLCs do not have the same policy as for Smash 4.
Concerning Monster Hunter, never Smash Bros would have shifted the realease a boss and his hero in the same game, never. This is a false track, far from being "unsuspected".

You can't both say that what happened in Smash 4 doesn't matter then tell me that they've never done it like that before.

We only have one DLC to compare to, so we're mostly flying blind but to say that they won't select something for a reason that they clearly don't have an issue with seems really odd. Of all the things we know about DLC its that they don't mind adding someone even if the series has already gotten a newcomer.

And calling something as not possible because it isn't "unsuspected" is about the worst logic jump I've ever heard. Even if it wasn't just marketing lingo used to build hype, it causes a huge fallacy issue where by saying it you make it so people stop expecting the "expected" choices, making them unexpected again.

 

[Ornl]

shocktarts17 : All mourning of a wait of perso deconfirmed goes through several phases before the acceptance (denial, indignation, intensive rummage, bitterness...). I invite you to speed up the mourning process concerning Sylux, Bandana Waddle Dee, Elma and Monster Hunter. I encourage everyone to continue to search, not to continue to believe in obsolete expectations.

 

[shocktarts17]

shocktarts17 : All mourning of a wait of perso deconfirmed goes through several phases before the acceptance (denial, indignation, intensive rummage, bitterness...). I invite you to speed up the mourning process concerning Sylux, Bandana Waddle Dee, Elma and Monster Hunter. I encourage everyone to continue to search, not to continue to believe in obsolete expectations.

Sure feels good when you point out a flaw in someone's argument so they retort to personal attacks instead.

Sylux and Monster Hunter are probably some of most likely DLC reps currently for actual reasons that aren't "they're popular"

 

[RealPokeFan11]

shocktarts17 : All mourning of a wait of perso deconfirmed goes through several phases before the acceptance (denial, indignation, intensive rummage, bitterness...). I invite you to speed up the mourning process concerning Sylux, Bandana Waddle Dee, Elma and Monster Hunter. I encourage everyone to continue to search, not to continue to believe in obsolete expectations.

Can you stop trying to poop on everyone's party by saying everyone is disconfirmed? They aren't unless we have actual proof in the form of an assist trophy, boss, Pokeball, Mii costume, or the developer of said character speaking out about disconfirmation.

 

[fogbadge]

ive pretty much given up on speculation, what with the ever growing list of included third party series and the fact that sakurai makes statements in regards to one character that are later contradicted by a later inclusion, suggesting that either its one set of rules for one character another set of rules for another or that sakurai really changes his mind easily so it now seems like any video game character is fair game

 

[shocktarts17]

ive pretty much given up on speculation, what with the ever growing list of included third party series and the fact that sakurai makes statements in regards to one character that are later contradicted by a later inclusion, suggesting that either its one set of rules for one character another set of rules for another or that sakurai really changes his mind easily so it now seems like any video game character is fair game

I think the important part of speculation is to not get sucked into absolutes. I personally feel fairly confident that spirits deconfirm but I'm not going to sit here and tell anyone that it's a sure thing. On the flip side I can also speculate about some bizarro world scenario where Ravio gets a DLC slot while still realizing that the chance of it happening are infinitesimally small.

 

[Green_Pikmin*]

1) Joker (Persona 5 VGA Teaser, Shin Megami Tensei 5 coming to Switch)

2) Erdrick (Promote DQ11 Switch Port)

3) Steve (Minecraft JP popularity & Microsoft/Nintendo Relationship)

4) Lloyd Irving (Tales of Vesperia Switch Port & Namco Bandai is involved with Smash itself)

5) Byleth (Fire Emblem Three Houses Promotion)

*Honorable Mention*
Dante (Cross promote Bayonetta 3 for Switch coming late 2019 for Switch and DMC5, P.S. both characters have the same creator)

 

[RealPokeFan11]

1) Joker (Persona 5 VGA Teaser, Shin Megami Tensei 5 coming to Switch)

2) Erdrick (Promote DQ11 Switch Port)

3) Steve (Minecraft JP popularity & Microsoft/Nintendo Relationship)

4) Lloyd Irving (Tales of Vesperia Switch Port & Namco Bandai is involved with Smash itself)

5) Dante (Cross promote Bayonetta 3 for Switch coming late 2019 for Switch and DMC5, P.S. both characters have the same creator)

Dante was sadly disconfirmed by the developers of Devil May Cry.

 

[WaddleMatt]

Can you stop trying to poop on everyone's party by saying everyone is disconfirmed? They aren't unless we have actual proof in the form of an assist trophy, boss, or the developer of said character speaking out about disconfirmation.

Heck we don't even have solid proof that being an Assist Trophy or a Boss disconfirms. For me, only Travis and Master Chief are disconfirmed.

Bosses disconfirming I can easily see why, most of them would probably never be playable anyway but Assist Trophies are still fair game especially since they can be turned on and off now for certain aspects like stages.

With how Sakurai is and how wacky this DLC can be I am only taking official disconfirmations as disconfirmations. We'll see how that works out. My predictions are set in stone for now because I think the 5 I predicted are the likeliest candidates personally but we will have to see the next character on the pass before I majorly alter my decisions.

Also, quick question... Wasn't Dante only disconfirmed for the base game? We don't know if this applies to DLC right?

 

[Green_Pikmin*]

Dante was sadly disconfirmed by the developers of Devil May Cry.

Was this before or after dlc was confirmed? Just wondering cause i'll change my list.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Was this before or after dlc was confirmed? Just wondering cause i'll change my list.

This was before DLC started, but I still think he's not gonna happen.
Source:

Lol no, he is not. ^^

— Matt Walker (@retroOtoko) August 24, 2018

 

[RetrogamerMax]

1. Joker
2. Banjo & Kazooie
3. Porky
4. Geno or Sephiroth
5. Lloyd

If both Banjo & Kazooie and Porky get in, it's a massive win for me because I would get 4 out of the 8 characters I wanted the most in Smash. The other 2 that already got in are and , the other ones are pretty much deconfirmed like Ganon and Krystal. Goemon and Dixie Kong though, I don't know where they stand at the moment.

 

[Green_Pikmin*]

This was before DLC started, but I still think he's not gonna happen.
Source:

Lol no, he is not. ^^

— Matt Walker (@retroOtoko) August 24, 2018

Oh ok, could be just be a PR response but since its pretty blunt I'll take him off the list.

Edit: Also I found out the creator held a poll on twitter on Dec 18th asking fans which of his characters would fans want to be in Smash Bros. and it had Dante on it. I doubt he would ask fans what they want if his character was already in the DLC plan already chosen by Nintendo.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Edit: Also I found out the creator held a poll on twitter on Dec 18th asking fans which of his characters would fans want to be in Smash Bros. and it had Dante on it. I doubt he would ask fans what they want if his character was already in the DLC plan already chosen by Nintendo.

Can you give a link to the poll? I can't seem to find it.

 

[shocktarts17]

Can you give a link to the poll? I can't seem to find it.

It was actually taken down pretty quickly after it went up you will have to look for stories are articles about it

 

[Green_Pikmin*]

It was actually taken down pretty quickly after it went up you will have to look for stories are articles about it

Yeah it seems he was getting harrased by smash fans, and he didnt take to kindly to it lol.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

________
Edit : Some Prediction by Smashboards community (averages)
Steve 57% / Banjo & Kazooie 21%
Professor Layton 35% / Jibanyan 13% / Katrielle Layton 1.5%
Phoenix Wright 33% / Leon 29% / Jill 18% / Amaterasu 9%
Erdrick 29% / Sora 13% (These 2 reviews are from before the rumor about Erdrick.)
Crash 28%
Rayman 24% (evaluation already downgraded taking into account that Rayman exists in Spirit.)
Doomguy 12%
Ryu Hayabusa 10%
So, why ignore Professor Layton / Jibanyan so much?

Here is the problem with using these scores as a measure.

For reference, I run RTC. So I have experience in scores and predictions.

Averages ultimately boil down to a small sample of opinions. Perhaps one of the best examples of this would be Ridleys day in RTC, day 2. Many people rated him at below ten percent but outliers made him have a Chance score of around 18%.

Granted, this was way before any leaks, this was on March 10th. But the example still rings true of how this is a small sample.

Furthermore, using scores to justify likelyhood fails when you consider how volatile these scores are. Notice when in RTC there are correctionary rerates of characters. This is because peoples opinions change.

Scores also have a noticeable element of bias. Want scores help show this. For instance, Lip supporters on Lips days gave her extremely high scores on both. For the rules of RTC I could not discard them, but it did shift the perspective of scores a bit. People will be biased towards characters they want. I overrated Crash for base game for instance. I underrated Incineroar because I wanted Lycanroc instead.

Furthermore, since these sorts of scores are not gospel, people are free to have their own opinions. I for one see Layton as past his chance, and my score for him is lower.

Don’t use scores for your arguement.

 

[fogbadge]

I think the important part of speculation is to not get sucked into absolutes. I personally feel fairly confident that spirits deconfirm but I'm not going to sit here and tell anyone that it's a sure thing. On the flip side I can also speculate about some bizarro world scenario where Ravio gets a DLC slot while still realizing that the chance of it happening are infinitesimally small.

thats part of them problem with no absolutes everything is fair game and you dont know what to make of it all

 

[shocktarts17]

thats part of them problem with no absolutes everything is fair game and you dont know what to make of it all

Agreed as long as you can separate possible from likely.

 

[fogbadge]

Agreed as long as you can separate possible from likely.

well thats part of the problem i no longer know who to think is likely and unlikely when it all comes down to how sakurai feels, he said hed have misgiving about cloud if he had no appearances on nintendo consoles and then we get joker who has no appearances on a nintendo console

and lets face it weve had quite a few characters wed all have said was unlikely

 

[shocktarts17]

well thats part of the problem i no longer know who to think is likely and unlikely when it all comes down to how sakurai feels, he said hed have misgiving about cloud if he had no appearances on nintendo consoles and then we get joker who has no appearances on a nintendo console

and lets face it weve had quite a few characters wed all have said was unlikely

All true (though I don't think Joker is any worse than Cloud for a number of reasons I won't bother getting into now) but the important thing here is to not look at these and think they make whatever unlikely thing someone thinks is now likely. These things were trend-breaking and very unlikely so for them to be treated as the new norm is just going to set people up for disappointment.

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

Made a wishlist with characters that haven't been deconfirmed as spirits.

 

[JKincaid]

Realistically:
1. Joker
2. Geno
3. Erdrick
4. Crash Bandicoot
5. Some FE character

What I want:
1. Joker
2. Geno
3. Porky/Flint/Kumatora
4. Vega/Chun-Li
5. Travis Touchdown

 

[fogbadge]

All true (though I don't think Joker is any worse than Cloud for a number of reasons I won't bother getting into now) but the important thing here is to not look at these and think they make whatever unlikely thing someone thinks is now likely. These things were trend-breaking and very unlikely so for them to be treated as the new norm is just going to set people up for disappointment.

joker may be trend breaking in the sense that hes the first character to even have appeared on a nintendo console before hand but he seems to me to fit the trend the third parties have been going in