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You get no Sympathy in a "Fire Emblem Discussion"

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Hong

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Fact: Roy and Ike never existed in Smash Bros.

It has been Xane all along. ◔ᴗ◔
 

Chido72

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Chido's Fire Emblem Roster Predictions:

Chrom/Lucina: It's pretty obvious that a representative from Awakening is gonna show up (most likely Chrom but Nintendo needs an excuse for more females and Lucina is so awesome) so the question is whether or not they're replacing Ike or will be completely new.
The answer is neither; they're replacing Marth.
The reason being that Chrom/Lucina and Marth are too similar for them to be seperate characters and too different to Ike to replace him. Also, if we're going by popularity, then Ike, Chrom, and Lucina beat Marth in that regard (at least in America and Europe from what I've seen).

Ike: Probably going to stay because no one from Awakening can replace him (unless they make Chrom x Olivia canon and put Inigo in)

Roy: Absolutely not going to show up because he's an irrelevant clone who wasn't that good anyway.

(Also got a new FE character idea, not sure if I should make a new topic or just put it here)
 

Autumn ♫

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Chido's Fire Emblem Roster Predictions:

Chrom/Lucina: It's pretty obvious that a representative from Awakening is gonna show up (most likely Chrom but Nintendo needs an excuse for more females and Lucina is so awesome) so the question is whether or not they're replacing Ike or will be completely new.
The answer is neither; they're replacing Marth.
The reason being that Chrom/Lucina and Marth are too similar for them to be seperate characters and too different to Ike to replace him. Also, if we're going by popularity, then Ike, Chrom, and Lucina beat Marth in that regard (at least in America and Europe from what I've seen).

Ike: Probably going to stay because no one from Awakening can replace him (unless they make Chrom x Olivia canon and put Inigo in)

Roy: Absolutely not going to show up because he's an irrelevant clone who wasn't that good anyway.

(Also got a new FE character idea, not sure if I should make a new topic or just put it here)
I really hope you're kidding about Marth getting replaced and about Roy
 

jaytalks

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Chido's Fire Emblem Roster Predictions:

Chrom/Lucina: It's pretty obvious that a representative from Awakening is gonna show up (most likely Chrom but Nintendo needs an excuse for more females and Lucina is so awesome) so the question is whether or not they're replacing Ike or will be completely new.
The answer is neither; they're replacing Marth.
The reason being that Chrom/Lucina and Marth are too similar for them to be seperate characters and too different to Ike to replace him. Also, if we're going by popularity, then Ike, Chrom, and Lucina beat Marth in that regard (at least in America and Europe from what I've seen).

Ike: Probably going to stay because no one from Awakening can replace him (unless they make Chrom x Olivia canon and put Inigo in)

Roy: Absolutely not going to show up because he's an irrelevant clone who wasn't that good anyway.

(Also got a new FE character idea, not sure if I should make a new topic or just put it here)
Welcome to the forums. For your character idea, check this thread to see if the character idea has been made yet:
http://smashboards.com/threads/character-discussion-guidelines-listings-e3-2013-update.324452/If so, just post in the corresponding thread.

I think the smash series is best when they represent multiple games in the series, so I think Marth (The first generation), Ike (the previous generation, home console), and Chrom or Lucina for (the current generation, portables) would represent the series best. I don't think Roy is likely but not for those reasons.
 

N3ON

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If Marth made it from Melee to Brawl with the expansion into a worldwide market and the introduction of many popular new characters such as Lyn and Ike, he can make it from Brawl to SSB4, even with Awakening and Lucina or Chrom. He hadn't appeared in a game for over a decade when the roster for Brawl was being decided, he never made it outside Japan, yet he was still included again even with all his popular worldwide competition, now he has two more releases under his belt (albeit they are remakes) - one being released worldwide - and heavy influence on the plot and characters of Awakening (plus the DLC). Sure they might be similar to him, but he's still the face of the series, he's not going anywhere.
 

•Col•

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Roy: Absolutely not going to show up because he's an irrelevant clone who wasn't that good anyway.
This is by far the most solid argument I've ever seen against a character for a Smash game EVER.

O_O

Aside from the fact that, you know, it's a completely subjective opinion and entirely non-factual. :3c
 

Chido72

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Allow me to elaborate on Roy:
His entire reason to be in Melee was to advertise for his game, which never came out of Japan. He's a clone of Marth and we already have two Fire Emblem swordsmen; Ike, the heavy one and Marth, the fast one. In my opinion, there's not much space for another Fire Emblem character who uses nothing but a sword, though if they do manage to differentiate him enough from Marth (which they probably won't) then he might have a very slim chance.

If Marth made it from Melee to Brawl with the expansion into a worldwide market and the introduction of many popular new characters such as Lyn and Ike, he can make it from Brawl to SSB4, even with Awakening and Lucina or Chrom.
The (probable) reason Marth made it into Brawl was because there wasn't a good enough option to replace him (meaning similar to him, with his moveset). However with two recent, popular, and similar options for a Blue-haired Falchion wielding swordsm..person, the chances of Marth being replaced are higher.
 

N3ON

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If Sakurai didn't find merit in Roy past advertising purposes, he wouldn't have attempted to include him in Brawl.

The (probable) reason Marth made it into Brawl was because there wasn't a good enough option to replace him (meaning similar to him, with his moveset). However with two recent, popular, and similar options for a Blue-haired Falchion wielding swordsm..person, the chances of Marth being replaced are higher.
If the highest priority was to keep the original movesets, Mewtwo would've made it in over one of the semi-clones. Marth is clearly the most well-known and popular FE character, he's the face of the series and got two games post-Brawl. You don't just replace the most iconic character of the series, a two-time veteran, with another character due to "recentness". If that were the case, Ness wouldn't have made it back for Brawl.
 

Autumn ♫

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Allow me to elaborate on Roy:
His entire reason to be in Melee was to advertise for his game, which never came out of Japan. He's a clone of Marth and we already have two Fire Emblem swordsmen; Ike, the heavy one and Marth, the fast one. In my opinion, there's not much space for another Fire Emblem character who uses nothing but a sword, though if they do manage to differentiate him enough from Marth (which they probably won't) then he might have a very slim chance.
I have a link to where Sakarai says that he didn't pick him just because he was new, Roy can also be changed alot to differentiate from Marth and Ike and Roy was planned for Brawl too. IS also said that if they were to make a remake of another game it would be FE6, so apparently both Sakarai and IS still care about Roy.

N3ON explained Marth pretty well.
 

BluePikmin11

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I have a link to where Sakarai says that he didn't pick him just because he was new, Roy can also be changed alot to differentiate from Marth and Ike and Roy was planned for Brawl too. IS also said that if they were to make a remake of another game it would be FE6, so apparently both Sakarai and IS still care about Roy.

N3ON explained Marth pretty well.
Yeah but he would want someone new. Time moves on for FE and I don't really think Roy is the best representation of FE now.
 

Chido72

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I can assume Sakurai didn't finish Roy in Brawl for a reason. That Reason is probably because they had 5 half clones in Brawl already so adding a character that started as a clone and probably would have ended up a clone would have taken too long for them. Sakurai probably started working on Roy, realized he couldn't do anything with him, and stopped. (Possibly similar circumstanes for Mewtwo)

The main reason Marth is well known and popular outside of Japan is because of Smash Bros. Also not sure if remakes count as new games in this context. As for Ness, he might've been a holdover for when Lucas was supposed to be Japan only.
Speaking of Ness, wasn't Ninten the main character of the Mother series in Japan, while Ness was brought in because he was in Earthbound, a recent, internationally released entry in the Mother series?
 

kikaru

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I can assume Sakurai didn't finish Roy in Brawl for a reason.

It's called time restraints.

Speaking of Ness, wasn't Ninten the main character of the Mother series in Japan, while Ness was brought in because he was in Earthbound, a recent, internationally released entry in the Mother series?

Ninten only starred in the first game I believe. As far as Ness' inclusion goes I don't think you're too far off but there were probably a few other factors involved as well.
Responses in fabulous cyan.
 

•Col•

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I can assume Sakurai didn't finish Roy in Brawl for a reason. That Reason is probably because they had 5 half clones in Brawl already so adding a character that started as a clone and probably would have ended up a clone would have taken too long for them. Sakurai probably started working on Roy, realized he couldn't do anything with him, and stopped. (Possibly similar circumstanes for Mewtwo)

The main reason Marth is well known and popular outside of Japan is because of Smash Bros. Also not sure if remakes count as new games in this context. As for Ness, he might've been a holdover for when Lucas was supposed to be Japan only.
Speaking of Ness, wasn't Ninten the main character of the Mother series in Japan, while Ness was brought in because he was in Earthbound, a recent, internationally released entry in the Mother series?
k. Any ounce of credibility you possibly had left with me you just blew it away.
 

Chido72

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Roy just seems over-rated to me, and his spot in the roster should go to someone more deserving and with a different moveset. While I can understand Marth staying (even if it means Chrom would either be a clone or not included), Roy has so many reasons to not stay.

(BTW my character idea was Robin/Avatar which has been made already)
 

Autumn ♫

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Roy just seems over-rated to me, and his spot in the roster should go to someone more deserving and with a different moveset. While I can understand Marth staying (even if it means Chrom would either be a clone or not included), Roy has so many reasons to not stay.

(BTW my character idea was Robin/Avatar which has been made already)
I think the FE roster would be best like this
Marth
Ike
Roy
Robin
 

•Col•

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Roy just seems over-rated to me, and his spot in the roster should go to someone more deserving and with a different moveset. While I can understand Marth staying (even if it means Chrom would either be a clone or not included), Roy has so many reasons to not stay.
Like?

Literally the only one you've said was because he was a clone. Which I don't even consider a reason not to include something.. And neither do you, apparently, considering that in this very post you say that it's okay if Chrom gets into Smash as a clone.

Nice double standards. :|
 

Chido72

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What I meant by saying that was if Marth stayed, Chrom would either be a clone or not in Smash 4, which I did not say I want or was okay with, in actuality I'd prefer the opposite. The reasons Roy shouldn't come back are because he was a mediocre clone with fire effects on his specials, he hasn't been in a game for 11 years (DLC doesn't count) and never made it out of Japan, and there are already enough Fire Emblem swordsmen.
 

N3ON

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I can assume Sakurai didn't finish Roy in Brawl for a reason. That Reason is probably because they had 5 half clones in Brawl already so adding a character that started as a clone and probably would have ended up a clone would have taken too long for them. Sakurai probably started working on Roy, realized he couldn't do anything with him, and stopped. (Possibly similar circumstanes for Mewtwo)
You have absolutely no proof... you shouldn't be assuming. I can make assumptions too... I assume all seven were originally planned but Sakurai ran out of time to implement them all (or in Dixie's case the mechanic didn't work) and he cut his losses. The point is Sakurai intended to include him past when he would be useful for advertising... thus he means more to Sakurai than just a marketing tool. He wasn't chosen solely for marketing purposes in Melee anyway.

And Sakurai doesn't just start programming a character without a plan for them... he wouldn't just "realize" he couldn't do anything with the character once they managed to make it to the programming stage. That's silly.

The main reason Marth is well known and popular outside of Japan is because of Smash Bros. Also not sure if remakes count as new games in this context. As for Ness, he might've been a holdover for when Lucas was supposed to be Japan only.
Your point being? Popularity is popularity. He was the most popular character and face of the series before he was included in Melee, all Melee did was open it to a worldwide level of exposure. It doesn't really matter what you want to classify the remakes as, but they did bring Marth to an international audience in his native series, and reinforced his importance within the series. What do Chrom or Lucina have that Marth doesn't? Recentness? That's not enough to outweigh importance to the series as a whole, popularity, veteran-status, and being the single most recognizable FE character.

As for Ness... no... Lucas was never planned to be "Japan-only" in Brawl, Sakurai said he learned his lesson with Japan-only characters in Melee, he wouldn't limit them to just the Japanese versions, but he wouldn't add an abundance of them. It makes little sense that Japan would be deprived of Ness in their games anyway, he's a lot more popular there.

Speaking of Ness, wasn't Ninten the main character of the Mother series in Japan, while Ness was brought in because he was in Earthbound, a recent, internationally released entry in the Mother series?
There was no main character of the whole Mother series in Japan, Ninten was the first protagonist, Ness was the second. As for why Ness was included over Ninten? Probably because of popularity... he wasn't too "recent", his game was already five years old at the time of 64. Having an international release might've played a part in it, though that's debatable, considering Smash 64 wasn't going to make it outside Japan originally anyway. One factor is probably because HAL made Earthbound and they also made Smash 64, while they didn't make the original Mother.
 

FlareHabanero

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As for Ness... no... Lucas was never planned to be "Japan-only" in Brawl, Sakurai said he learned his lesson with Japan-only characters in Melee, he wouldn't limit them to just the Japanese versions, but he wouldn't add an abundance of them. It makes little sense that Japan would be deprived of Ness in their games anyway, he's a lot more popular there.
Correction, but Sakurai himself never stated that using characters that debuted only in Japan is an issue, it's using characters that are only popular in Japan that's the problem. Those two statements are not one in the same despite sounding similar.
 

•Col•

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To be fair, Roy is an inferior clone to Marth. Even you cannot deny that.
Depends what he meant by 'inferior'. In terms of standing apart from the character he originally stemmed from (Marth), I feel like he did a better job than most other clones.

If he meant it to mean tier-wise, well then yeah, duh. But if that's a valid argument that trumps anything else, then Falco and Ganondorf shouldn't have been included in Brawl because they were inferior clones too.
 

FlareHabanero

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Roy is inferior to Marth mainly from the prospective of gameplay. That inverted sweet spot mechanic does not work well for Roy at all, and to a lesser extent his worse recovery (which is saying something when Marth's is already pretty iffy) and his weaker ability to chain attacks.

Does that exactly mean because of that, Roy cannot be in another Super Smash Bros. game? No, not really, there isn't some imaginary rule that states it. Hell, there is always the option of expanding on Roy and giving the character a general overhaul to better utilize his attributes.
 

N3ON

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Correction, but Sakurai himself never stated that using characters that debuted only in Japan is an issue, it's using characters that are only popular in Japan that's the problem. Those two statements are not one in the same despite sounding similar.
All I meant by "learnt his lesson" was that he was going to release Japan-only characters internationally in future Smash games, not that there was an actual issue with Japan-only characters. Perhaps I worded it poorly. Embarrass
 

•Col•

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Roy is inferior to Marth mainly from the prospective of gameplay. That inverted sweet spot mechanic does not work well for Roy at all, and to a lesser extent his worse recovery (which is saying something when Marth's is already pretty iffy) and his weaker ability to chain attacks.

Does that exactly mean, because of that Roy cannot be in another Super Smash Bros. game? No, not really, there isn't some imaginary rule that states it. Hell, there is always the option of expanding on Roy and giving the character a general overhaul to better utilize his attributes.
I get all of that.

I was just explaining why I took his 'inferior clone' comment to mean standing out from his root character in terms of overall feel, rather than how the clone matches up to the original character with competitive gameplay in mind. :3c
 

FlareHabanero

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Oh, as in more along the lines of cosmetics and archetypes, that kind of fluff. Well if we're going by that, Roy does have a distinct appearance with the only comparable character being his own father Eliwood (which makes sense). His abilities of being able to manipulate fire is also a beneficial trait that makes him stand out more; hell it was one of the reasons why Roy was even chosen as a new character over the other alternatives at the time like Leif.
 

Igneous42

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If Sakurai didn't find merit in Roy past advertising purposes, he wouldn't have attempted to include him in Brawl.



If the highest priority was to keep the original movesets, Mewtwo would've made it in over one of the semi-clones. Marth is clearly the most well-known and popular FE character, he's the face of the series and got two games post-Brawl. You don't just replace the most iconic character of the series, a two-time veteran, with another character due to "recentness". If that were the case, Ness wouldn't have made it back for Brawl.
To be fair the decision to cut Roy was obviously done very early in development, there wasn't like a working model or anything yet, at least to my knowledge. And technically Lucas was set to replace Ness in Melee but time constraints or something got in the way, can't recall at the moment though. Not that those things validate him points, just making a comment. Also I have to argue the fact that Chrom would have to be a clone of Marth. They share a lot of common features but they are of the same bloodline so that makes sense however Tiki clearly states that they are actually pretty different in terms of personality, which to me would translate to his gameplay as well. Getting stuck up on the fact that they are sword users with blue hair is such a silly argument. How many characters use their hands/fist to fight in Brawl yet are completely different? They could easily give Chrom (or any other sword wielding Fire Emblem character) a Melee only sword moveset and still have them be plenty unique if they wanted. Even if they decided that a new FE character does have to be gimmicky Chrom could still fall back on a weapon changing mechanic, a skill swapping mechanic, a re-classing mechanic or a Dual Support mechanic. The latter 3 representing some of the prime features of awakening pretty well.

Pretty much a long-winded way of saying there is no reason Chrom and Marth couldn't easily coexsist within the same roster. Fox, Falco and Wolf all were on the same roster and they share a lot of traits in common yet beyond sharing the landmaster most people aren't too upset about it.
 

FlareHabanero

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Roy has been shocked quote a lot lately... :smirk: :rolleyes:
He's seen some serious ****. Look at the fear embedded in his eyes, his rage wedged into his heart, his depression overwhelming his very soul. It's like the very emotions of human life has been stuffed into a mere teenage boy, and for all to experience it first hand, it's rather tragic.




So saddening. :sadeyes:
 

N3ON

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To be fair the decision to cut Roy was obviously done very early in development, there wasn't like a working model or anything yet, at least to my knowledge.
But the fact that he even made it into the programming stage means that at one point Sakurai did find merit in him past marketing, which is all I was saying. And he did make it further than any of the other Forbidden 7 bar Mewtwo btw (he had more data than them).

And technically Lucas was set to replace Ness in Melee but time constraints or something got in the way, can't recall at the moment though.
Yeah, Lucas would've replaced Ness had Mother 64 not been canceled. Again, I was just trying to apply Chido's logic elsewhere to show how many holes it had. You're right, under different circumstances Ness would've been replaced, but under the parallel circumstances in the FE comparison, I was just using Ness to show that just because there is a more recent character that can play the same, doesn't mean the original will necessarily be replaced.

Also I have to argue the fact that Chrom would have to be a clone of Marth. They share a lot of common features but they are of the same bloodline so that makes sense however Tiki clearly states that they are actually pretty different in terms of personality, which to me would translate to his gameplay as well. Getting stuck up on the fact that they are sword users with blue hair is such a silly argument. How many characters use their hands/fist to fight in Brawl yet are completely different? They could easily give Chrom (or any other sword wielding Fire Emblem character) a Melee only sword moveset and still have them be plenty unique if they wanted. Even if they decided that a new FE character does have to be gimmicky Chrom could still fall back on a weapon changing mechanic, a skill swapping mechanic, a re-classing mechanic or a Dual Support mechanic. The latter 3 representing some of the prime features of awakening pretty well.
I've never said Chrom couldn't be unique, I've actually argued he could. I was just using the mentality of Chido's example, where Chrom was to replace Marth. I agree, he doesn't necessarily have to be a clone, but chances are decent he might be.

Pretty much a long-winded way of saying there is no reason Chrom and Marth couldn't easily coexsist within the same roster. Fox, Falco and Wolf all were on the same roster and they share a lot of traits in common yet beyond sharing the landmaster most people aren't too upset about it.
I agree, that's why I'm trying to prove replacing Marth is nonsense, even as clones they can both exist, let alone if they both had unique movesets.
 

Diddy Kong

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Sigurd's wife got kidnapped, brainwashed and abandonned him and his baby son for his archnenemis. He gets one of his best friends killed while being helpless, and gets accused for treason against his own country. Also had to witness his sister and oldest truest friend getting slaughtered (also had to see his father die before him, killed by his own countrymen and fellow lords of Grandell), only to be slain with most of the rest of his friends for treason by the same dude who took his chick at the same day. Left the world with not one of his troubles resolved, knowing his faillure basically caused doom day to happen.

Roy got to proof his ass till level 20 then chill and take thrones for some 3/4th of the game. He got to bang various chicks, let Eutruria solve most of his troubles (once his army took care of their trouble, which was caused by just two sneaky bitchass traitors with no reason other than greed), and his father lived till the end. Only had to blow up some dragons with his overpowered sword (with just 20 uses), in the last part of the game. And yeah, got to kick Zephiel's ass. Only tragic thing he got to deal with perhaps was witnissing Hector die. Who's probably his child's canon grandfather. And well, the situation in general, a teenage kid being in charge of his country's army, which takes some serious balls. Even though it's equally ****ed up. But he's no Ike yet. He comes second though , as he's probably a bit younger than PoR Ike. He's lucky compared to his dad though.

So yeah, Sigurd is most tragic I think, Hector next but more to his terrible death in FE6, as FE7 Hector is a little less tragic than PoR Ike and Eliwood I feel. Cecile had to endure some **** to, and might be a whole bit less mentally stable than Roy, as he even potentialy gets so screwed up he wifes his own blood sister.

Marth is also potentialy even with Roy. Had to actually abandon his country he loved so much, had to see his sister stay behind and mother getting killed. His father's death already marked as the beginning of the war he had to win. Had to sacrifice a friend to ensure his safety (Frey didn't got killed in the end though, which is quite badass), and knew he had to face the empire all alone with just a few soldiers, the chick he wanted to bang being one from the beginning he took of. Pressure was put on him from start. Not much knowlegdable about FE3 Book 2 and FE12, but the fact alone he had to fight a war a second time says enough.

Radiant Dawn Ike wasn't tragic at all for example, but he never had worry much anyways. Cause he's strong as ****. And it's all basically glory to his (better but equally asskicking) role in Path of Radiance. He basically was like '**** this all, I'm fixiing this **** on my own' in Radiant Dawn. And he did it. We all take it cause it works, and he's badass. The whole world being stoned and the return of the Black Knight where some points though, but in the end, he even began a bromance with the dude before he took his last breath. He basically kicked ass, and showed no sympathy. Fighting for his friends and **** cause you could solo both his games with him alone.

Roy still is cool though. But compared to most others Fire Emblem collegues, he got it easy. Still got to face some ****, which is probably God giving him some karma off from Eliwood.

And could have to do with his dad being a serious dragon fetishist. Which is why hè had to solve his karma by killing a dude who said 'Yo, humans and dragons shouldn't mix. But since these things are super ****ing intelligent, have super powers and live to see another age of dinosaurs aka chickens ruling this ***** (they live long, them dragon folk) have them have this while damn world. Cause you all ****ed up.' Which is basically one of the truer things ever said, but Roy decided to let God favor him. Too bad it could as well take sbout 20% of Roy's total usage of p41r3 blade. Also, Roy might've never knew about his mama being a Dragon, cause Eliwood might've either been too Sad about her death (resulting in ilness) or felt some serious shame about his fetish. Speaking of, Eliwood might've faked his ilness, and contacted Bern behind Roy and Lycia's back to send Roy out to either: get him killed or: avoid spending time with him so he wouldn't have to answer any of Roy's many questions about his mother. I would totally put this in a FE6 / FE7 remake to spice up the story, and drama. Would probably put Roy on level of Sigurd. He might face of Eliwood as a secret, final boss however. And he steals your Durandal beforehand, has hax stats, and you fight him on a map, 1 vs 1, in a castle with many walls, he's on his horse and can do 'Canto' after attacking like horsemen in Tellius. He also has, and will use Elixers. To make it worse, Merlinus betrays you, gives Eliwood all your items, and your only left with your Sword of Seals (could maybe have infinitive uses now).


However, Lyn is probably last spot. Her tribe and family dying is terrible, but nothing else really happened. Got mixed up in a war, but friends and most of all: potential baby daddies took over a few hours later. She basically had nothing to fear since start. Cause she met the supposedly best tactical brain in the world since day 1, and faced no major armies outside of her grand uncle's forces. Some people think she's one of Nintendo's strongest female roles, but am disagreeing. She's a strong personality, but nowhere dominant in the plot overall (still extremely iconic due to 'first playable lord in the West').

Eirika is a stronger female role, provided you chose her route, otherwise it's just her finding her brother and have him save her a couple of times and basically let him take over from there. Ephraim might be badass, but outside of killing his best friend who was basically a puppet for Magvell Satan himself, so well he had to be told a few lessons in... Well, basically everything.

Basically, it's hard to compare. But I see the most tragic roles are definitely Sigurd, Ike, Marth, Eliwood & Hector.

You know. Fire Emblem debates really made me analyse this sort of **** way too much, am glad ai got this off my chest.
 

Diddy Kong

Smash Obsessed
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I'm done with Fire Emblem discusion now and will only shout for my favoirtes who will never make it.
 

Jaedrik

Man-at-Arms-at-Keyboard
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Chido's Fire Emblem Roster Predictions:
Chrom/Lucina: It's pretty obvious that a representative from Awakening is gonna show up (most likely Chrom but Nintendo needs an excuse for more females and Lucina is so awesome) so the question is whether or not they're replacing Ike or will be completely new.
The answer is neither; they're replacing Marth.
The reason being that Chrom/Lucina and Marth are too similar for them to be seperate characters and too different to Ike to replace him. Also, if we're going by popularity, then Ike, Chrom, and Lucina beat Marth in that regard (at least in America and Europe from what I've seen).
Ike: Probably going to stay because no one from Awakening can replace him (unless they make Chrom x Olivia canon and put Inigo in)
Roy: Absolutely not going to show up because he's an irrelevant clone who wasn't that good anyway.
Welcome to the forums, I hope you enjoy your stay.

Your reason for Chrom/Lucina replacing Marth is only a supporting structure which has no foundation. Why would they replace him? I understand this is just a roster prediction, but there is no reason to warrant Marth's exclusion for those two character's benefit, none at all. In fact, Marth is for all intents and purposes the most popular, iconic, and well known Fire Emblem lord in the world, neither Ike, Chrom, or Lucina compare, he has enormous precedent supporting his inclusion in the next Smash. It doesn't matter if they could coexist or if one would need to be nudged out if they can't find a way to make them different or unique enough. I guarantee beyond a doubt in my expertise that Chrom would be bumped out far before Marth ever would when we're only looking at this reason and nothing else.

I also disagree with your reasonings of Ike and Roy. Chrom is just as similar to Ike as he is to Marth, Chrom and Ike both have that hardened mercenary archetype and design, many aesthetics and stats are around this area, and Chrom and Marth both have the same weapon, blue hair and lineage, not much more (I believe these last to be more superficial). Lucina is also dissimilar to Marth in a few key ways, fighting style and gender most prominently.
Furthermore, the prediction also appeals to aesthetic based similarity in removal of Marth in favor of the newcomers. Aesthetic based similarity is a weak reason to remove any character, but you hold this up, while you do not seem to regard aesthetic uniqueness very highly as per your dismissal of Roy.
But I admire your consistency in gameplay, you first wish to create a space for Chrom/Lucina, but think they would be too similar to Marth, so you nudge him out, and to keep consistent with this you also nudge Roy out of possibility. While clones are a deplorable thing, you are making a grand assumption that because Roy was a clone in the past that he'd be a clone now, and you're making the assumption that Chrom/Lucina would be clones/similar to Marth. Also, what do you mean by "wasn't that good anyways"?
I completely agree with the sentiment that clones are bad things, but the manner in which you assume and apply this reasoning to all character choices is remarkable, and it all is directed at justification for Chrom/Lucina. They are not inevitable, and their justifications are weak in the light you've made them.

On an aside from the predictions, I've said this a long time ago, but a character's likelihood, real or perceived, is no valid reason to support a character nor to disregard a character, so let me ask you, why do you want them in Smash 4? Simply liking a character is a valid reason to support a character, mind.

I encourage you to find counterpoints, but I also encourage you to check out my essay right down in my signature ;) .
 
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