http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOTrYOAa-Ok
Watch the whole (The WHOLE) set, I think it gives a good idea how both characters fare against one another when the 'infinite' isn't put into play.
Looks like the klaw and jabbing are effective against D3, and Bowser can do a good job of edgeguarding D3.
However, Bowser's size allows D3 to actually pull off long strings of attacks (Which is something he can't really do). Also, D3's Utilt, his main killer, becomes 9000x more lethal because it can actually hit consistently at any point in the attack as long as Bowser is close enough (Maybe it can hit Bowser out of the klaw?).
D3's bair (And to a certain extent, fair, but not really) also seems to outdo nearly all of Bowser's aerial options except for when he's at an angle above Bowser, where D3 needs to turn around and dair if he doesn't want to get hit (Doing this is not feasible).
Sorry but no, you can consistently do shorthop klaw at him, because if he spot dodges, just jump out of klaw aka infinite jump. here come the mindgames, if he thinks that, he might do a move, instead do a shorthop airdodge then grab him and chaingrab DDD to the end of the stage into overb. Obviousily everything is dependent but saying doing stuff like this is dumb is just dumb to say(I'm not flaming you).
One thing to note when debating match-ups: Mindgames are NEVER taken into account because those things are more at the hands of the player rather than than the characters themselves. If that was the case, I could just easily say 'D3 can mindgame his way to an infinite, mindgame Bowser into doing all his mindgames upon which he predicts and punishes and...' etc etc.
A more accurate thing to say would be that it is a good option and tool for Bowser to use against D3's shield-camping in general and can keep D3 on his toes.
Anyway, regarding that, it looks like a very good option. But few things to note - if D3 rolls back, what can you do to punish it? Nothing (Maybe fire?), and it just ends up resetting the situation; D3 is safe once again, and you must once more risk everything in approaching. And, D3's bair can consistently outdo Bowser's SH options - bair beats out the klaw upon coming out (Look at round 2 of the set around 0:17 - D3's nair, his worst aerial, beats the klaw upon start-up. Bair would be even worse, because D3 won't have to be that close) , and bair's hitbox lasts long enough to catch Bowser out of an airdodge unless it is timed perfectly, but at that point D3 could just bair again.
One other thing I'd like to point out is D3's ftilt - it outranges everything Bowser has on the ground (Except fire), and is safe on block - Bowser doesn't seem to have the sufficient speed to punish it unless he SHs BEFORE D3 does the ftilt.
Also JST completely forgot Bowser's advantage in terms of speed and the blind spot I mentioned in my matchup review. No way is it 70:30 without the infinite, not that it matters very much.
Speed isn't
that much of an issue. Donkey Kong, Wolf, and Captain Falcon all are much faster than D3 (And debatably faster than Bowser). Despite that, D3 still has a considerable advantage over them.
Regarding the blindspot, that's only when D3 is facing AWAY from Bowser. Dair's hitbox is rendonkulous enough to catch Bowser out of whatever he was doing at that angle. Even then, D3 still has his multijumps to try and avoid danger.
I think the main thing that gives D3 the advantage (Barring the infinite) is the fact that he is much safer than Bowser, who puts himself at an enormous risk every time. There is also the notion of the inevitable infinite (CG if the infinite is banned), and there is also the fact that D3 outranges and outprioritizes Bowser in many instances. Don't underestimate D3's speed, either - Bowser is fast in most cases, but D3's speed in few categories allow him to shine - the enormous range and considerable speed on his SG and his pivot-grab OoS (Don't land behind D3. =P) and his lighting quick bair are quick and formidable enough to give Bowser a run for his money (Yes, just those two things. But his Dtilt and Ftilt are pretty **** fast too. =P).
I stand by 70:30 or 65:35.