After researching Sakurai’s criteria on Pokemon again, I have realized that Decidueye actually is not the frontrunner candidate for the next Pokemon newcomer. Who will be chosen will be based on combination of factors. While Decidueye has huge popularity in the Pokemon fanbase and gameplay potential, there is one factor he misses that is crucial for his inclusion, this part in particular:
“Well first of all, we talk with the Pokemon company. What’s the hot Pokemon? What Pokemon are in the movies right now? And really do a lot of research on that front.
For example, X and Y are coming out – of course, we haven’t done any market research because they’re not out yet, but we look at the animated series or movies and anything like that and again, find out which ones are going to be central to any of conversations in Pokemon going forward.
But it’s not just that – going back to just what we talked about, what’s unique about them? Where do they fit in with the rest of everything else? What do they have?
It’s a combination of those things.”
Decidueye has not become a central Pokemon and has been less promoted in the anime. As of Sun/Moon anime's new episodes, Ash’s Rowlet has not evolved into Decidueye, as his current role in the anime is mostly for gags. The one that actually has become central to the anime and marketing in general is Lycanroc:
Lycanroc has become one of Ash’s primary partners in the anime recently, whose current bond strongly parallels to 6th generation's Greninja. Outside of that medium, his pre-evolution/other forms have been promoted frequently in Sun and Moon via
video games,
being the first Pokemon to appear in a new trading card mechanic called GX,
prominence in the manga,
and merchandise. Sakurai has likely done heavy marketing research for Sun/Moon around the time of project planning. Such marketing would have been planned out in advance by The Pokémon Company. TPC would have made Lycanroc to be the most important Pokemon they want Sakurai to pay attention to way back in 2015, giving concept art of the Pokemon's Midday and Midnight form to use for reference.
Lycanroc also has solid move-set potential, wielding the powers of levitating rocks. He is an earth-bender of sorts in Avatar terms, which is very distinct when compared to the current in Smash 4. Since Midnight Lycanroc is the most popular out of its three forms, I will be discussing its play-style in that specific form. Looking at
Midnight Lycanroc’s Pokedex information, it acts quite recklessly and craves for victory, provoking opponents and using close combat when nearby. Lycanroc plays as a fighter who utilizes rock powers in melee for a bait-and-attack play-style. The many other forms of Lycanroc like Dusk and Midday can work too if Sakurai wants to have the Pokemon focus on a ranged-attack bait-and-attack play-style. The choices Sakurai has with Lycanroc would provide enough gameplay potential for Sakurai to play around with.
I personally believe now Lycanroc will be the next and only Pokemon newcomer chosen for Smash. While it would be ideal for the roster to get Lycanroc & Decidueye, I feel that only one spot will remain open, in the same way
only one spot was open for one new X/Y Pokemon way back in Smash 4’s project plan,. With Lycanroc having the advantage of being more promoted in several mediums like the anime more than Decidueye way back, It would not matter how distinct Decidueye would be because without that combination of benefits Lycanroc has, he will not make it in. Lycanroc
is one of those Pokemon has become central to Sun/Moon from S/M's pre-release to now. I feel firmly confident that Lycanroc will be playable over Decidueye.
