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Wam's Chaos Game Thread

Deadbananas

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Man saying someone will do a ballsy play just means you can then later accuse them of ****ing anything no matter how unbelievable. That's not a case.
Ah, that part wasn't clear. I was trying to say that is showed similar thinking between Laser and me there, not that I necessarily thought that was a solid point for you being scum. I just thought his interpretation on that was interesting, where I think his talk about Sabrar shooting you I thought was a good point I hadn't thought against, since it's the most solid reason I've seen for why one of you three would bus there. Again, haven't thoroughly read your defense yet, I'm sure you hit on that.
 

Deadbananas

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The night kills have all been on unexpected people, which means that the scum believes they are being townread - so remoevs Heury from the suspect list fown to Laser, DB and of course me.
Why does this eliminate Heury in your mind? I believe Heury thinks he is being townread, yesterday I said he was the person I'd least like to vote from a transition of my top scum, and he asked earlier today how you were more town than him I think, which shows he thinks people think he is town?
 

Deadbananas

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Actually, I can probably get to your case since it seems you used mostly quotes rather than post numbers which differs from usual. Plus I'm interested
 

Deadbananas

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(Re: Ranmaru post #322) " Don't be too excited about it, it's mostly the link he has with you with some minor other stuff thrown in. " So most of his sus on me came from a Ranmaru sus.
I actually took this the opposite way, I assumed Sabrar saying that most of the sus on Ranmaru came from his sus of you, since he was talking about making a case on Ran. As well as his later case post on Ran centered more around you.
In fact, Sabrar's last post is voting for LaserGuy. Who gains the most from killing Sabrar I wonder. Maybe the guy he's trying to lynch?

The final 3 people on the LaserGuy wagon were all town and are now all dead.
.
This is chainsaw, but interesting. I'm generally not a subscriber of putting much faith into dead towns reads. What do you think about only one of those deaths being a nightfall, so the others were town having the main part in killing those on the laser wagon?
Heury & DB, be honest with yourselves here and ask this question because his case hinges on me 100% knowing Sabrar was the vig. Did you know or even suspect he was vig?
If someone held a gun to my head night 1 and asked who the vig was, I probably would have said you, even if you denied it because you seem like the kind of player to do that, my second person would have been Sabrar though, since his reactions definitely seemed to have more than just frustration at role fishing in them. I may have been biased in this, since my only game with sabrar he was a vig and that stuck in my head, but that's honest. I do like occams razor for your other point here, but I'm having trouble finding a situation that is simple so far in this game currently, someone did something convulted somewhere.
Tatter 'can't be saved?' If I'd voted you he would have been saved. You are serously tryign to turn my lynching scum against me
This is probably your best point, combined with your post in response to Heury about being punished for switching your reads and hitting mafia. I'd have to go back and check the VC to see if laser and Sabrar voting tattertot would have hammered. I'll do that when I can to try to see some other context.
 

Swiss

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Don't get mad - get Swiss
Why does this eliminate Heury in your mind? I believe Heury thinks he is being townread, yesterday I said he was the person I'd least like to vote from a transition of my top scum, and he asked earlier today how you were more town than him I think, which shows he thinks people think he is town?
Heury wasn’t townread a lot d1 in my mind.

Ended up that that way but for the majority I had a lot of sus on him and that tends to ‘stick’

Re: the Ranmaru / Swiss case by Sabrar I believe it was the way I suggested

6am and on the loo then going back to sleep, though
 

Swiss

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Don't get mad - get Swiss
Also DB I probably could have got away with claiming vig as you say - so question why I didn’t - especially when Lasers case rests on me having read that.

And why townread him for trying to figure out who the vig is D2 equally if not more important for scum to get it. And wasn’t exactly rocket science - we just had to hope vig was still alive - and you can see my posts early d2 trying to prevent a scum fake claiming vig believing sabrar was vig. Again question what gain scum Swiss would achieve here
 

LaserGuy

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So apart from the very obvious ‘why is laserguy voting and not no lynching’ I will respond tomorrow though should be a fairly simple post
I said I would NL if that's what people wanted.

Also how well do each of you know each other and more exactly how experienced is each of you?
I've played maybe 5ish games with Heury back on the old xkcd forums and one with DB here on Smash.

Why was Sabrar going to shoot me? After he realised I wasn't really claiming vig he seemed to have no issue with me, never voted me and was pushing other votes.
This isn't true at all. Sabrar wanted you right up until #497.
#386
Outside of association I also have my doubts about ranmaru and I agree with your assessment. However as explained earlier I don't necessarily think that Swiss is the correct yeet today because he might resolve himself by D2. So I went with ranmaru, obviously shock value has its own merits but it was not that huge of a consideration.
#461
Unvote

I believe that Swiss should always be the yeet D2 if he's not Vig (barring some pretty unlikely scenarios) and therefore he needs to shoot tonight. I have my doubts regarding ranmaru , I definitely don't support yeeting bessie and DB is town. I generally like LaserGuy and while he proved that he can fool me I don't think he's the right choice today. I'm not a fan of Tattertot's recent vote-switchings but I can't really evaluate him due to unfamiliarity with his style (I've seen too many bad plays from less experienced town-players to take it for granted that this is scum-indicative). somitomi comes off natural, I would have to re-read to look at any case against him. I definitely want to reread Heury.
#466
If there is 2 deaths tonight and noone else claims Vig then Swiss is cleared. If there is only 1 death then Swiss is most likely lying because Mafia is not interested in withholding, not interested in shooting the same target as Vig and Doc is unlikely to protect anyone Swiss is shooting. The only real possibility with Vig!Swiss and only 1 death would be someone doctoring the Mafia NK which has a pretty low chance of occurring starting with 39% chance of there even be a town!Doc in the first place and then them guessing correctly.
#471
I'm feeling better on somitomi. I think yeeting Tattertot and Swiss shooting Heury is a good plan.
#477
If you're false-claiming Vig as town then I have greatly overestimated you.
#482
Vote: Swiss

I'm good for now, will revisit later.
#497
I'm probably okay with you being town, I can obviously see that my Swiss-read might be coming from a tunnel due to different playstyles. However I've seen enough mistakes in your game-winning reads to make me reconsider, particularly since you keep changing them.

I'm not 'comfortable' with any particular yeet, I would be happy with Swiss and okay-ish with Tattertot. I can accept LaserGuy as well but that's a safety net due to me not being able to read him.
As you can see in his final commentary here, #497, you were always his preferred yeet. I think given that he knew you weren't vig, his #386, #466, #471, and #482 were definitely signaling his intentions.

In fact Sabrar's opinion of me is, eve when he sussed me mid of D1 was (Re: Ranmaru post #322) " Don't be too excited about it, it's mostly the link he has with you with some minor other stuff thrown in. " So most of his sus on me came from a Ranmaru sus. One which, as scum, I would know is wrong. This works in my favour to keep sabrar alive as when Ran flips, I look good.
No, this is backwards. He sussed Ran because of you. I discussed this with Sabrar in #386 (quoted above). Or you could just read his case in #350 where it's very clear that he sussed you and everything about Ran is basically just "I don't like this interaction between Ran/Swiss".

Also important to note that Sabrar seems slow and unwilling to acknowledge I'm not the vig, because he wants that target on me, which I was fine with, keeping him alive.
No, this isn't consistent with Sabrar's evaluation. See his case in #350 again. He does not believe that there is a benefit to Town claiming vig in this situation.

In fact, Sabrar's last post is voting for LaserGuy. Who gains the most from killing Sabrar I wonder. Maybe the guy he's trying to lynch?
Yes, he was voting for me. Again, look at his reasoning for that vote. His preferred yeet was very, very, clearly you. But he was willing to accept either me or Tattertot if you were not on the table (#497 again).

At this point I didn't know Sabrar was vig, and I do not believe anyone here had Sabrar as a good vig read. Heury & DB, be honest with yourselves here and ask this question because his case hinges on me 100% knowing Sabrar was the vig. Did you know or even suspect he was vig?
You said you found his crumb (#580), and obviously had a solid vig read on him as of D2 (#594).

This is outright lie and you know it.

Tatter 'can't be saved?' If I'd voted you he would have been saved. You are serously tryign to turn my lynching scum against me - and in the process skim over the fact that all three dead townies had their votes on YOU.
Your timeline is wrong. At #524 I had zero votes. Tattertot had 3, and all of the other wagons had two. You voting for any of the other counterwagons would not have been enough to save him.

Your entire case is full of this, deliberately phrasing things in certain ways to make me look bad. As opposed to pulling out genuine things. It is a FACT that what I did saved you and got Tatter lynched, and I'll not sit here and have you ignore facts.
And by saving me, you also saved yourself.

And Laser when did I go from 'towncore' for lynching Tatter to 'Scum' for bussing Tatter?

Exactly when did that change happen bud.
Between #666 and #667. I fairly certain somi was a hit, and over the night phase had to re-evaluate.

In short, no vig would counter claim that. I used it as a gambit as per all my meta, go and check.
I phrased this incorrectly. See my EBWOP in the #693. Sabrar did not think that Town would fake-claim vig. Sabrar's description that situation goes thusly:
4. Swiss is Town but not Vig. His reason for doing the gambit is something already described above. Again, he should be interested in my role-fishing but is not. Also, this is a very risky play because an inexperienced player might counter-claim Vig or an experienced player who is actual Vig (and has more restraint than me to not to get into a fight) might try to shoot him which has negative expected value even if he gets saved by Doc.
Also I'm noting that he subtly claims that he is the Vig here.

The described above part refers to this, btw:
2. Swiss is Vig, but the question is not genuine. He's doing a play by claiming it either because he wants Doc-protection or because he wants to trick scum into thinking that the Vig can't be him (or possibly another reason that didn't occur to me).
In the first case he would be able to admit the purpose when I ask him about it #169 and it wouldn't be such a secret that he would need to ignore me constantly.
In the second case he should be on the lookout precisely for the very obvious role-fishing that I'm doing but he somehow never raises this point against me.
In his assessment, your behaviour was not consistent with Town trying to gain some tactical advantage by fake claiming, because you weren't using your supposed claim to assist in your evaluations of players. You were uncomfortable talking about it and didn't want to engage him.
3. Swiss is scum. He tests the waters with #11, hoping to draw out a comment that would indicate to him the actual Vig if it exists. If questioned later it is easy to brush off #11 by claiming it was to protect the actual Vig or draw the NK to a VT or anything similar. Also there's a good 50% chance that no Vig exists in which case he can continue the gambit.
In this case he can't actually answer my question in #169 and is forced to ignore it.
Sabrar was an idiot, he shot Ran
Sabrar is many things, not all of them good, but he is not an idiot, no.
 

Deadbananas

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Heury wasn’t townread a lot d1 in my mind.
Ah, I was thinking you were referring to the Bessie kill and not the sabrar kill. Thats a better point, but I still think heury could feel pretty confident due to his position on tatterot, as you also feel confident for that same reason.
Re: the Ranmaru / Swiss case by Sabrar I believe it was the way I suggested
Id urge you to go re-read that section, becuase I honestly can't see where you get that impression.
Also DB I probably could have got away with claiming vig as you say - so question why I didn’t - especially when Lasers case rests on me having read that.
I cant think of anything specific for why you wouldn't claim vig as scum, so points in your favor there. The general logic of the vig would be nightkilled would still apply though so people might become suspicious, but that's more speculation. Obviously some mafia member decided they didn't want to fake claim vig.
And why townread him for trying to figure out who the vig is D2 equally if not more important for scum to get it. And wasn’t exactly rocket science - we just had to hope vig was still alive
It's not the specific actions, but more how he handled it and his general attitude. I think yoh mentioned something similar about the same situation.
and you can see my posts early d2 trying to prevent a scum fake claiming vig believing sabrar was vig. Again question what gain scum Swiss would achieve here
You would be able to mentioned it in something like this. Scum!Swiss would know that since he is scum, no scum would fake claim, and he would believe in this situation he had just killed the vig. So a smart player would do that so people would notice it or so they could bring it up in their defense.

Not that it isn't a townie thing to do, but it's something that can be faked, and something j think you would be capable of thinking up from my admittedly limited interaction with you.
 

LaserGuy

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HeuryAlone HeuryAlone ,

I asked you this before but you didn't answer (possibly EoD happened). How well do you know Tattertot? How many games had you played with them in other settings?

I cant think of anything specific for why you wouldn't claim vig as scum, so points in your favor there. The general logic of the vig would be nightkilled would still apply though so people might become suspicious, but that's more speculation. Obviously some mafia member decided they didn't want to fake claim vig.
Concerns about trackers/watchers, possibly. Also the vig choice was someone that Swiss was townreading so it would be very difficult to justify it.
 

HeuryAlone

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I've played with Laseguy a handful of times and probably spectate his games the same number of times. I'm always in awe of his analytical abilities and I dont see Laserguy as scum here. Either he is right or completely wrong. One thing that stuck out that Lasegiy caught that I didn't see was the fact that tattertot only liked Swiss's votes. I have vague memories of an early quick game with tattertot as mafia where they shaped their scum partner's votes the whole game, and that would fit the pattern here. And Swiss in chat then told tattertot to stop liking posts. But I've also seen smart enough plays from them that I wonder of the possibility of purposefully choosing to keep swiss alive and those likes being a false trail.

If swiss was mafia, I fully expected Bessie to be alive. I was getting suspicious of Bessie, and, given me, Bessie and swiss together, it would have been a tough decision for me to decide. Given that Bessie was the nightkill, I fully suspect deadbanana now. Here I am working under the assumption that mafia is putting me in final 3 to make the decision. Based on my previous reads with deadbanana, swiss and I at the end, I would likely vote swiss. That's why Bessie being the nightkill pite deadbana in the best position as mafia and I can see them making that decision. Laserguy being my top town, I fully suspect him or I to be the nightkill, but likely laserguy if deadbana is the nightkill (if we voted no elimination). So now I'm in a tight spot where I'm sure it's either deadbanana or swiss. Feeling 50/50. I still want to do no elim. Cuz I still want to look do a completely re read of any two other players still alive before I make my final decision.

I haven't seen swiss claim yet. Did I miss it or has it not occured? I'll claim my role and my used action(s) only after swiss has. And if they don't, then I'm ok with voting swiss today.
 

HeuryAlone

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I asked you this before but you didn't answer (possibly EoD happened). How well do you know Tattertot? How many games had you played with them in other settings?
Have played with them quite a bit online in quick werewolf games. And a bunch of other online games/board games. I have a group of discord friends from a nomic server where we used to use Plato a lot to play games. Current nomic game we are all building an army of ducks.
 

LaserGuy

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Have played with them quite a bit online in quick werewolf games. And a bunch of other online games/board games. I have a group of discord friends from a nomic server where we used to use Plato a lot to play games. Current nomic game we are all building an army of ducks.
Thanks.

Swiss said he did nothing in #684, by the way.
 

HeuryAlone

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Yes I did see that, but I think Swiss should full role claim. Last night I also did nothing.
 

LaserGuy

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Annotated Tatter ISO. Hopefully I haven't missed any posts, and I think a few may be out of order. But I think my assessments should be clear. I've put my commentary in bold just to make sure.

I have no online game experience. Sorry if my replies and such are slow. Ill try and keep up.
HeuryAlone HeuryAlone invited me from discord
I've played mafia but never online. My replies would be slow because I tend to be busy and its a lot to keep up with.
I did. I was struggling to get it to load before the game started but it worked last night.

Not much of interest here.


Ive been ask who I suspect and my reasoning and Ive put some thought into it as Ive watched the thread. @ranmaru has been pressuring me with questions since the begin. Maybe its me being new or maybe its them using me as being new to draw the attention away from them. Also I chose my new profile pic last night after the discussion of cats and dogs and was hoping people would read that as me saying I am town but I think it was missed. I didnt respond immediately to his vote on me either because its day one and things are still getting going. Though only knowing one person on this thread makes it harder for me to get a read just yet but Ill get there.
I have a hard time believing that scum!DB would suggest the cat/dog thing and Tatter would immediately change his avatar to a cat and say it was crumbing Town... and then DB does not care or refer to this at all. Doesn't make sense to me.

Im also not a fan of this take. I like to be on and observe a bit before just picking someone as mafia. I like having a good reason and Im of the mind set of innocent until proven guilty so unless someone gives me a reason to make me think they are mafia I will think they are town. As of right now @ranmaru is the only one thats given me a reason to think they may be mafia due to there investment in finding someone so fast. I also have a off feeling about @Sabrar but no good reason yet so just looking for one.
Pushes against Heury. This is the start of their sustained attacks on each other. Tattertot's treatment of Ran/heury is very similar. Unlikely buddies.

I didnt worry because I expected some votes since Im new and that can be used in so many ways and there's still lots that can happen between now and the end of day one. Like I responded to HeuryAlone HeuryAlone I like to watch peoples reactions to things and wait for a reason to think them mafia or town. HeuryAlone HeuryAlone said he doesn't try if he is mafia and to me he doesnt seem to be trying to hard but maybe thats due to things still getting started but Im now watching that. @ranmaru has asked me lots of questions and pushed for me to suspect someone withing the first 24 hours which I feel is trying to hard. I also noticed Swiss Swiss hardly messaged me in their response to everything happening but they did say they thought I was town so I don't think they are mafia or they might have agreed and kept the pressure on me which would have benefitted them if they were mafia. Those are the only ones if seen anything on but there's still plenty of time left for others to do things to change my mind.

More push vs. Heury and Ran, Town on Swiss.


I didn't have an avatar at all when the game first started. It wasn't letting me choose a file and wouldn't load anything until after DBs comment. I chose cat because #1 its freaking cute. I mean my cat looks like Professor Mcgonagall and #2 they said town was cats so I made mine a cat. Its seems though some didn't catch that or took it the wrong way.

Noting that Swiss was the only person who thought this implied he was definitely Town.


Just want to throw out there that up until this point I have not received any coaching. I have been offered help and guidance if I felt I need it but haven't felt I need it yet if ever. Mafia is mafia. Online or not it very alike. @ranmaru mentioned HeuryAlone HeuryAlone dropping in activity recently reminding me that he mentioned he doesn't try if he is mafia. Just a thought to consider. Also don't know why Swiss is upset I agree with his Sabrar thoughts.
More pushing on Heury. I'm noting again the sort of parallel association between Ran and Heury in Tatter's mind. He was clearly threatened by both players.

Good to know 😅
Buddy vibes. Neither player actually cared to pursue this.

I only said that because it was day one and not everyone had even posted yet. You came out the gate searching for someone to target and it happened to be me so of course I didn't like it. Now its day 3 so I don't mind you trying so hard though it is still a game amd people should be able to post their thoughts when they are ready.
Sometime later today or tomorrow morning Ill post some town and mafia suspect and why until then though Im just going to watch the chat.
I said that because I work until 2 in the morning... And my breaks arent nearly long enough to give me time to respond to everything.
I didn't mention it because I feel you are more invested in just finding someone to vote versus the reasons to vote someone. If that makes sense. I feel its gotten better and you are focusing more on clues and answers but especially early game it was all about the quick reads and like sabrar said solve the game in one day.
Nothing of interest.

I expected votes being new because new players are easy day 1 votes and because like its been stated a few times before new players are hard to read which makes them good suspects as well.

Anyone would or should ve suspicious if anyone is throwing thier name out there. Why would I not be suspicious of that. And I also mentioned that ran mentioning me and hammering me right at the beginning made me suspicious of him as well so its not just heury. And I already answered that question in my read on heury. Ive found this self assessment true in other games but if no one else who has played with him before has found this to be true even once then I will drop it.
Ran/heury linked again.

Scum

HeuryAlone HeuryAlone : was slightly active in the beging but has kinda dropped off the map. He said if hes mafia he tends not to try very hard which is something I have seen in his games before so maybe its true for this game or maybe not but its something to consider. He also left soon after his post on why he thinks I am scum and then left which makes me suspicious one because it was my name and two it seems to me like a post to stir things and them let them grow from there which is exactly what happened thanks to @ranmaru

@ranmaru : I've been suspicious of him since the start. Hes been pushing for names since the first hours of the game which was too soon in my opinion. His very first vote was on me which also caught my eye but I didn't react because I kinda expected as the newbie to jave some votes right out the gate. He also has somehow kept the topic of conversation off of him very well minus the few times I have mentioned him so hes either very town of very good at hiding he is mafia.

@Swiss. Im leaning scum because of his refusal to put out reads on people. Someone stated earlier that they got a scum feeling from me because I was 'lurking' or not giving reads yet but I feel that I've given more reads than him and that this is a very similar situation so if I gave scum vibes then Swiss definitely is. This is all I have on him though at this point.

Null-

@somitomi haven't seen or heard enough to really have a read yet

@Sabrar also don't really have anything one way or the other yet.

Town

Deadbananas Deadbananas Because of his activity level and his well thought out comments I get a town vibe. He seems very invested in finding answers and clues to who scum is versus finding anyone to throw a vote on and that's very town.

@bessie I also get a town vibes from bessie though I need more time to really look at theor posts and analyze them.
I feel like Tattertot's reads on Heury and Ran are authentic at least insofar as the sense that these are original thoughts from him. Likewise, with DB, I feel his read is at least somewhat motivated by his interactions with him. Heury is never scum here.

Tattertot's read on Swiss is interesting. I think it's mostly poached from Ran's read in #216 but Tattertot misunderstand Ran's argument. Tattertot never really gave any consistent impression on Swiss. He townread him earlier, now scumreads him, and this read in particular is the only one that does not appear to be directly motivated by Tattertot's interaction with Swiss... Swiss and Tatter have several interactions at this point, but Tatter does not acknowledge them in his analysis.


Opps. I forgot laserguy. Ill put out my read on him tomorrow. Im calling it a night.
Im feeling null on laserguy. Hes been active and definitely throwing questions out but that's it. I don't know. Not a great read but yeah.
I just missed him. Apparently he hasn't caught my eye one way or the other so I kissed him among the 8 other people
Missed* him. sorry. Auto correct.
I'm not sure if Tatter ever read a word I wrote.

Vote: ranmaru

Reason: #236
Im fine with either honestly but I do see your points. [Unvote] [vote: heuryalone]

Tatter was super consistent with this Ran/Heury association. Heury is Town.
 

HeuryAlone

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Why does this eliminate Heury in your mind? I believe Heury thinks he is being townread, yesterday I said he was the person I'd least like to vote from a transition of my top scum, and he asked earlier today how you were more town than him I think, which shows he thinks people think he is town?
So deadbanana hasn't cleared me as town yet. Yes, I was assuming I am now the most town read. Wouldn't surprise me if scum!db wanted to keep my as an option to push swiss to swing towards.

Another thing which laserguy mentioned already about swiss which bothers me is that swiss claimed he knew sabrar's role due to crumbing,but later said he wasn't sure. Seems like blatant lying to me. By the way, swiss, no I did not suspect sabrar was vig, but in hindsight it really should have been more obvious. With his early post about yeeting you d1, I was sure it was due to you claiming vig shot. I was wrong about the reasons though. There was a game where I got in a conversation with a player about lynching claimed vig shots early in the game, and I thought I remembered it being sabrar, but wasn't positive. Based on how sabrar reacted to me this game though, it may not have been with sabrar, or he doesn't remember.
 

Swiss

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Don't get mad - get Swiss
Also I am floored at the Heury sus on DB. But that is 100% a town thing to do (and I like it)

I’d wanted to do a full reread and choose between Laser/DB to push but have been on the back foot thanks to the laser push

What rubs me the wrong way with laser is as you say he’s very analytical etc yet happy to make big judgement leaps and assumptions to justify his scum case on me. Appreciate even town twist posts to make their cases stronger but feels more re phrased and looking back only wanting to see certain elements than a normal case
 

Swiss

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Don't get mad - get Swiss
And regardless of what happens today we should definitely no lynch

1) Because I cannot wait to see who does. The Wifom on this is gonna be great.

2) Someone may have a useful night action
 

HeuryAlone

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The fact that tattertot completely left out laserguy feels very believable. Feels like they were focusing most on the players pressuring them, mostly ran and I. Really don't see laserguy as town here. Really wish we had a read of db from tattertot. I don't like the fact that there really isn't any reference to db at all. I do agree your case on swiss is a strong one though. I am prepared to vote swiss today if they don't full claim.
Swiss Swiss
 

Swiss

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Don't get mad - get Swiss
The fact that tattertot completely left out laserguy feels very believable. Feels like they were focusing most on the players pressuring them, mostly ran and I. Really don't see laserguy as town here. Really wish we had a read of db from tattertot. I don't like the fact that there really isn't any reference to db at all. I do agree your case on swiss is a strong one though. I am prepared to vote swiss today if they don't full claim.
Swiss Swiss
That is not a strong case. It relies on me having read Sabrar as Vig and being 100% sure on it. It’s a stupid case.

Literally the case says I bussed my teammate because I was so sure Sabrar would shoot me. If you believe that as a case that’s on you and I don’t know what else to say
 

Swiss

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Don't get mad - get Swiss
How confident of a read on Sabrar Vig did you have Heury?

I didn’t have an opinion - but Lasers case rests on me knowing it was him after correctly reading on not much and then acting to save my own skin after fake claiming vig in a 50/50 to bus a teammate that wouldn’t have died because I might have died in the night but then again I might not

Really?
 

HeuryAlone

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Laserguy's case on you makes you sound like an amazing confident mafia player. Maybe take it as a compliment? I dont think laserguy ever claimed to have suspected sabrar as vig during d1.

As Bessie mentioned, they caught my "accidental" pr slip. In truth, this wasn't accidental. I'm vanilla and was attempting to draw the nk to keep pr's safe.

It is now way past my bedtime. I'm down to no lynch and don't plan to do much re reading until then.
 

Swiss

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I have a load of rereading to do, you should too as you're most likely to doe toNight.

And Laser's case rests on on him saying I figured Sabrar was vig with 100% certainty.

And I am an amazing confident player, moreso as scum but hey ho work with what ya momma gave ya.
 

Swiss

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Re-read starting #361 or top of page 10. Re-read assumed Laser Db smart & experienced. Work with me on the formatting and train of thought.

#260 Laser says
I'm not saying it's entirely wrong, just incomplete, and is therefore unlikely to produce accurate reads of me.

Bit defensive borders on self meta

#371 I would highlight that I defend Ran before (instead) of defending myself. +VE Swiss

#372 Ranmaru says " I re-evaluated Tattertot in my #216. Then, when Tattertot comes in and re-ignites my belief that he is scum, I cross out Swiss as scum, since I believe Laser and Tattertot are scum individually, and via association, therefore Swiss wouldn't fit as scum to me in my mind. "

going back prior to see Laser sus

#380 Laser says the two most likely scumbuddies of Tatter are me, and Somi. Worth remembering. Would have thought he'd use this in his case against me? Why didnt he

" Has advocated for Tatter as Town. " (Laser on Swiss). This sentence feels out of place, very deliberate in the wording so it can be used later if Tatter flips scum.

I forgot how hard Ran went for Laser D1.

Tatter on Laser #328 " Im feeling null on laserguy. Hes been active and definitely throwing questions out but that's it. I don't know. Not a great read but yeah. " Very non committial and unconcerned to be non committal, exactly the kind of thing I townread him for, but why so vague on Laser when there was lots to talk about. Tatter actually forgot to include Laser in his reads list which Ran picked up on. Very important.

For me Tattertot's readlist is just more questions. Because like yah, what you brought up here is true and scummy behavior from tattertot, but the guy had like 2 days to make this, so if he was mafia I'd expect it to be a bit more polished? Continuing this train of thought after this next post.

I happen to agree with this take by Laserguy. Mala said Laserguy was a great and super helpful partner for him in his first scum game. I think that game was brought up here earlier but I don't remember the name.

Tattertot's readlist doesn't inspire any more confidence in him, and does drop him out of null town, but it just doesn't feel like if he was mafia he'd make that post. Especially not forgetting laserguy if laserguy was his scum partner. I'm ultimately just kind of confused what to think here. I totally get your push for them being connected as there have been things form both sides that are a bit odd. If I can get the time I'll look into it more, but I'm pretty tight on time as of now. I try to stay away from forming teams early on, as I feel that tunnel visions me and makes me easier to be manipulated..
Dislike DB here. Says he doesn't like Tatters posts, but doesn't do anything with this. Very non committal where he can later say "oh look I sussed him too"
Continues to defend Tatter after this also. Does DB do too much for it to really be his scum partner?

Laser did you just do scum partner analysis on someone you townread?
It felt out of place then, and now. Why do scmu partner analysis, which is a lot of effort, on someone you think is town? Unless you know thy will flip scum, and want to have cases ready by association.

I still think Heury is my prime scum candidate. After a quick skim through, he's mainly stuck with Tattertot for his main case, which rubs me wrong since the basis for that was just hedging and now that it looks viable he's pushed for it more. He's mainly focused on analyzing post yeet benefits for him and Tattertot, which is helpful, but I'd want to see his takes on other stuff.




HeuryAlone HeuryAlone Why does Tattertont being scum vs being town only change with Laserguy in your books? If he flips town you don't think anyone else could be mafia?
DB defends Tatter to push Heury. Which I can't dislike too much as I did the same. But...

Right before deadline as in before the day ends? You seem to be changing whether your ability triggers during day or night as if you don't know, which makes me doubt the existence of your vig shot. Which is it? If it is day shot, waiting for d2 would be best.
lol

^Says he won’t give in depth reasoning - gives in depth reasoning.

The towniness hurts my eyes
Tatter's first(second?) post which he liked, was when I called DeadBannanas town.

Everyone should be thinking about their top 2-3 choices for the yeet. Deadline is at 5 am for me so I definitely won't be around and I imagine it will be similar for many others.

I'm looking at somitomi, Swiss and, hmm, I guess Tattertot. We don't technically need a majority, but we shouldn't have someone yeeted off of a few votes.
"hmm, I guess Tattertot" Non committal yet still squeezes him in.




@Sabrar LaserGuy LaserGuy @Tattertot @bessie

Your votes are useless where they are
remember

Talking about before D1 lynch

Buddies for Tatter and whether they're coaching him is something that has been discussed for awhile. bessie asked for this specific analysis since I alluded to it in my earlier reads.



A couple things I see on this:
-It's interesting to me that Tattertot doesn't seem to have a better understanding of Heury's meta or personality since they've played, if not mafia, then something similar. He mentions he's seen Heury not try as scum before, but it feels like kind of an afterthought and mostly he's taking Heury word for it. Likewise, Heury mentioning in #61 that newbies are hard to read, I mean, yes they are, but they shouldn't be so hard to weird for him in particular. I don't know how well they know each other, but there's a weird kind of distance between them that is hard for me to pin down exactly if it's significant.

@Tattertot or HeuryAlone HeuryAlone , how much have you played with each other? How well do you know each other outside of mafia?

-His read of you feels very much like newbie Town OMGUS. I've seen this lots of times.

-His read on Swiss feels understandable because most of the players here are using an xkcd-style giant read list meta whereas Swiss is going for a more #HBC shoot-from-the-hip style reads. Doesn't feel significant except maybe in buddy analysis. Then again, Tatter liked Swiss back in #76.

-There's an inconsistency in his Sabrar read in that earlier he said he had a poor impression of Sabrar (#71) but now says he hasn't seen anything.

-He forgot about me entirely which I don't care for.

On the whole, it's not a great post. My general impression is that he isn't analysing in detail, and there's a lot of things that are mistakes, omissions, or inconsistencies. The problem I have with doing in-depth analysis on a new player's posts is lots of times they just don't know what they're doing or how to analyze very well, so these sorts of errors can appear independent of alignment. See, 3DSNinja, for example, or Peaceful Whale back from xkcd. So when reading a new player, I usually try to look for tells that are characteristic of how newbie Town vs. newbie scum behave, rather than try to sort through the newbie weirdness individually. Tattertot is not as clearly as transparent as 3DSN, who was super obviously Town in all of his games in spite of his scummy content, but I haven't seen anything that obviously pings me as definitive newbie scum either. I can see him going either way.


On Somi:


Here's some Town posting from early in TIL mafia:

Somi is very chill, snarky, and DGAF how he comes off

This is scum somi from Completely Vanilla over a similar period of time:
All business, no jokes, no chit-chat.
Laser his is extreemly non committal on Tatter again, but very firm on Somi.

If you move to Tatter I am thinking I might swing over to bury it. Tatter isn't my favourite yeet but I'm not super comfortable leaving Swiss or somi the opportunity to swing it after I go to bed.
Has the chance to vote Tatter, but doesn't.

LaserGuy is a strong player.
@ranmaru, I am feeling better about Swiss and I hate the current wagon situation. I think I'm going to move back to somi. If you want to put your vote on another wagon so that yours wins in the event of a draw, I will hold off for a few minutes.
Suggests Somi not Tatter as the backup lynch

Tattertot - 3- Heury Alone, LaserGuy, Ranmaru
Huery Alone - 2 - Deadbananas, Tattertot
Somitomi - 2 - Bessie, Swiss
Swiss - 2 - somitomi, Sabrar

Did you do that on purpose to put the option back to me?

Fine, I'll stick with Tatter then. Make of that what you will.
I feel like in years past I could clear/scum on this post alone. I just cannot tell. Bit defensive which is -ve
Feels like he wanted the chance to swap to Somi but Ran denied it, and he didnt have the cojones to swap himself.

Ranmaru very well done here btw

DB of course was afk the entire time voting Huery with Tattertot.

Who’s the vig and why are you so bad
I immediately remove the chance of me being vig, unlikely play as scum

Nice work on Tattertot! (@Tattertot I think you played well, we should talk post game. I have a friend who is also relatively new to forum mafia that plays here and comes from doing some other quicker versions of mafia as well.) Guess I should have trusted my first post take on Heury. Sorry Heury, and sorry others for pushing that.

The two kills are very interesting, can't really tell at all which one would be the vig and which one the nightkill tbh. Unless the vig claims before I get to re-reading, I'll try to analyze both Sabrar and Ran's final positions.

Tuesday's are a busy classday for me, but I'm working on re-reading and generating a new reads lists. I'll interact here while I do.
DB here you post as if Heury was hard cleared as town after the flip. Why?

"Vote Laser, Vote Laser" Ranmaru screamed at Swiss. "Do it or we lose!" he insisted. "Yeah" Sabrar chimed in, eyes glazed like a fresh doughnut. "do itttt".

Swiss stood tall, proud. Firm in his belief.

"It's Bessie and Laser, I swear it" Ran spluttered, drool escaping from his mouth.

Yet Swiss remained still in his belief, an unshakeable will like the Colossus of Rhodes.
The scenes post game if I stopped the better scum player being lynched and did this cocky post.

it could be Ran. But Sabrar can't shoot himself if he was vig.
The logic here is the wrong way round. I remember thinking this was odd.

LaserGuy LaserGuy Deadbananas Deadbananas why did neither of you do night actions?
DB you had a cop, so to not have used it on one of you scum reads?

So this is where I'm at:

bessie - Town. Cleared by #553 and #558.

Swiss - Town. Cleared by #524 and #540 .

Heury Alone - Town. Cleared by, among others, #399.

Deadbananas - Towniest Town that ever Towned.

somitomi - Scum. Everyone else is Town. This vote lookis pretty bad though. As does his Tatter read in #220 is lifted almost verbatim from my #178 and does not feel authentic at all.
So bold as a scum to do this, because he would know the game wouldn't end.

Ironically, Ran and Sabrar were the only people that I didn't have as strong clears.
Reads town

Mafia
Confirmed Town
Me
Suspected Town
Other
start of page 14 VC
Tattertot - 3 -, Heury Alone, LaserGuy, Ranmaru
Huery Alone - 2 - Deadbananas, Tattertot
Somitomi - 2 - Bessie, Swiss
Swiss - 2 - somitomi, Sabrar

Final VC
Tattertot - 3 -, Heury Alone, LaserGuy, Swiss -- (Bessie)
Huery Alone - 2 - Deadbananas, Tattertot
Somitomi - 1 - Bessie,
Laserguy - 3 - ranmaru, sabrar, somitomi

Going to play devil's advocate a bit here and make a case for Bessie over Somi, would like people's thoughts.
The question here is who is scummier on the wagons. Somi and Sabrar both switch from Swiss to Laserguy, following Ran who switched from Tattertot. Somi is following out two confirmed towns. Bessie voted, claiming her vote to be a counter to Somi's vote. At the point Bessie entered the thread, the only viable wagons were either Tattertot, or Laser, unless Somi switched to Heury. Bessie is a smart, meticulous player from what i've seen. At this point, I'd guess that Bessie knows the rules regarding a vote tie, and that Tattertot will die either way. Bessie can't vote for Laser here, because that would contradict here reads list and position and reveal her to be scum. Ignoring Wam's deadline post, Bessie knows Tatter is dead either way since no one else is online, this is a good excuse for them to pop onto Tattertot's wagon and get some cred without actually bussing since he would have died anyway.

This brings up the problem of Bessie and Tattertot being mates in the first place. Tattertot mentioned being only online at limited hours, and Bessie is as well. If their hours didn't online well, perhaps Bessie would be unable to help Tattertot much since whenever he was on he had new questions to answer from people.

Bessie then kills Sabrar since Sabrar knows her really well and is worried he would call her out, as well as allowing the vote to focus on Somi for today, her primary scumread, securing an easy day today.

My main reason for having Bessie top of my list yesterday, was I felt her posts were unbiased, and lacking agenda overall. This could result from Tattertot and her schedules not aligning as mentioned earlier, and her not wanting to interact much with him, as she mainly didn't during the rise of the case on Tattertot.

---
That's what I have on Bessie.

I think Yeeting somi and Bessie always results in a win here, unless someone ultra-bussed Tattertot, but that's incredibly unlikely and they would deserve to win.
This sets him up to win endgame if he can establish two scum reads. But then why shoot Bessie last night?

Laser consistently bottom of Somi's read lists. Interesting.
 

Swiss

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Don't get mad - get Swiss
I'm keeping Heury as town, rip if wrong.

I can see points for both Laser/DB being scum.

The Bessie night kill has to be someone desperate to avoid being tracked/watched. We know DB visited Bessie last night. But that's what a cop would do.

I really wanted DB to die last night
 

Swiss

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Don't get mad - get Swiss
So deadbanana hasn't cleared me as town yet. Yes, I was assuming I am now the most town read. Wouldn't surprise me if scum!db wanted to keep my as an option to push swiss to swing towards.

Another thing which laserguy mentioned already about swiss which bothers me is that swiss claimed he knew sabrar's role due to crumbing,but later said he wasn't sure. Seems like blatant lying to me. By the way, swiss, no I did not suspect sabrar was vig, but in hindsight it really should have been more obvious. With his early post about yeeting you d1, I was sure it was due to you claiming vig shot. I was wrong about the reasons though. There was a game where I got in a conversation with a player about lynching claimed vig shots early in the game, and I thought I remembered it being sabrar, but wasn't positive. Based on how sabrar reacted to me this game though, it may not have been with sabrar, or he doesn't remember.
I claimed I knew Sabrar's role to try and prevent a fake claim of vig.

Me stating I didn't know Sabrar was vig is completely separate.

So yes a blatant lie but with positive benefits.
 

Deadbananas

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So deadbanana hasn't cleared me as town yet. Yes, I was assuming I am now the most town read. Wouldn't surprise me if scum!db wanted to keep my as an option to push swiss to swing towards.
While I haven't fully cleared you yet, I feel I explained that pretty well as why near the start of today, this question was because I thought I caught Swiss lying.
Really wish we had a read of db from tattertot. I don't like the fact that there really isn't any reference to db at all.
Here's Tattertot on me from the readlist
Town
Deadbananas Deadbananas Deadbananas Deadbananas Because of his activity level and his well thought out comments I get a town vibe. He seems very invested in finding answers and clues to who scum is versus finding anyone to throw a vote on and that's very town.
DB here you post as if Heury was hard cleared as town after the flip. Why?
Because at that point, I, like most people, assumed that scum would not buss their partner like that, so the three on the wagon were clear. I explained this in my #606 . I'm starting to wonder how thorough your read through was, since you seem to be missing certain posts. I could ask you the same thing about Laser from here
Laser
HueryAlone

DeadBananas
Bessie
Somitomi
Swiss
and this post later the same day
Don't forget we can't clear Laser because of the late wagon on him. That's null.
why did you feel the need to bring this up? I took it as a response to me, but looking back now, you had Laser as top town, so why did you want to discourage me from townreading him. Was this just a general reminder thing?
DB you had a cop, so to not have used it on one of you scum reads?
I think it'd be dumb to cop someone night 1, especially after mafia got yeeted. I was going to originally, because I thought the no self targeting rule applied to mafia night actions, so they would be unable to godfather themself with their buddy gone, Wam clarified this, you can see him post that rule clarification publicly right before day 2 start. I decided it was worth the risk to wait till night 2, as their would be a much lower chance of a godfather being present. You can see this yesterday from this post by Bessie, which I agreed with and liked. Additionally, as I made pretty clear Day 2 start, my scum reads had all been elevated due to being on the Tattertot wagon.

The logic here is the wrong way round. I remember thinking this was odd.
I don't know why you think the logic is the other way around

this is the order of posts
Possible that Sabrar was the vig.​
Laserguy brings up Sabrar being the vig
I was thinking this too, due to his large clash with Swiss, it could be because he was the vig instead. The problem is, I can't really see a universe where Sabrar shoots Ran. Granted I can't really see any reason to vig Ran from most people, but especially not Sabrar since at EoD they seemed pretty aligned.

The only person yet to post is Somi, so here's hoping Somi claims vig and we can get atleast a bit of clarity.
I remark I thought that too, but that I was confused why Sabrar would shoot Ran, then I acknowledged that wasn't a great point against the theory because I couldn't think of why anyone would shoot Ran

^ nah I know his role, he crumbed it

Why wasnt in Ran who got shot by the mafia?
you asked me why it wasn't Ran who was shot by mafia
it could be Ran. But Sabrar can't shoot himself if he was vig.
I say it could be Ran who was shot by mafia, but in the post you were referring to of mine, I was doing analysis on Sabrar being vig, so he couldn't shoot himself.
where he can later say "oh look I sussed him too"
This sounds good, but I would challenge you to find me saying that, in fact, if you remember in your re-read from day 1, Heury brought up clearing me and Ran for being on Tattertot early, and I said I didn't like that thought in general, since I felt it was totally possible.
 

Deadbananas

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I think it'd be dumb to cop someone night 1, especially after mafia got yeeted.
clarification, dumb for someone like me. For someone like Somi who was probably self aware enough to know they'd be a likely yeet candidate. it would be best to get it off sooner.
 

Deadbananas

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Has the chance to vote Tatter, but doesn't.
Vote: Tattertot

I will be around for another hour or so.
Laser votes Tattertot 9 posts later.

I think you are grasping at straws to try to keep me and Laser in play currently Swiss.

Swiss, could you explain your Heury townread for me more? At the start of the day you had him below Laser, I know laser making the case would have brought him down, and I've seen some of your reasoning on Heury for day 1 and day 2. What makes him the least likely to have bussed Tattertot in your opinion?

LaserGuy LaserGuy same thing for you, you've focused on Swiss today, but I would also like to hear your opinion on Heury, is it still just PoE for you?
 

LaserGuy

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same thing for you, you've focused on Swiss today, but I would also like to hear your opinion on Heury, is it still just PoE for you?
Here's the main points I see for Heury.
-Heury and Tatter scumread each other hard for all D1. Never of them ever really budge on their reads. This is super unproductive for mafia and I don't know that I've ever seen this happen before. People bus, yes, but usually mafia will either bus early and then hedge away, or bus late when it's clear their buddy is in jeopardy.
-If you look at my Tatter ISO above, he has very, very similar reactions to Ran/Heury. He is constantly thinking about them together. This is not how he would be interacting with a buddy.
-#303 #399 are super townie. Especially in light of Tatter actually being mafia. The fact that Heury thought that Swiss might be a day vig (#412 as well as several others) and was still advocating for himself to be shot... I would be shocked if this comes from mafia.

At this point I'm more confident in Heury Town than I am in you, and if you're mafia, you've played impeccably.
 

Deadbananas

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Thanks, I've really only just started on my read through, and I won't get much progress till tomorrow, but I'll keep those in mind for sure. Though I'm not sure how much it matters, since I'm thinking its Swiss currently, I don't think his arguments have addressed all the points, and some of them don't make sense to me. He's definitely good, but right now he looks in a corner.

Personally, I can't see my opinion changing based on who gets killed if we no yeet, I have no powers left, so it seems we are all out. Will still be down for no-Elim if others feel they will get value from it. But I'd ask everyone to do analysis on kills and what deaths would change your mind.
 

Swiss

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Don't get mad - get Swiss
Laser votes Tattertot 9 posts later.

I think you are grasping at straws to try to keep me and Laser in play currently Swiss.

Swiss, could you explain your Heury townread for me more? At the start of the day you had him below Laser, I know laser making the case would have brought him down, and I've seen some of your reasoning on Heury for day 1 and day 2. What makes him the least likely to have bussed Tattertot in your opinion?

LaserGuy LaserGuy same thing for you, you've focused on Swiss today, but I would also like to hear your opinion on Heury, is it still just PoE for you?
No my post is accurate as his post, then. Doing something later is never the same as now

We have a cop on him, I don't think he's buddies with Tatter see my daily catch up d1, I don't think his reaction to my vig claim is scumlike, plus as scum he wouldn't get hug up on the wrong points imo
 

Swiss

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Aaaah i really don't know which way to go between Laser and DB.

I feel Laser has done more stuff I could read as Scummy, DB overall feels more 'pulling the string in the background'
 
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