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Wam's Chaos Game Thread

Deadbananas

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I have reservations on both Laser and DB.
Since you don't have reservations on Heury, would you mind disclosing your night action before him?

I'm also re-reading again.

For killing Bessie, I see the main reasons as avoiding doctor/watcher, and trying to set one yeet as more obvious with the others. I think this is what was done with Somi yesterday, and I'm kind of kicking myself for voicing that, but then letting it carry out. I think the mafia saw my case on Bessie, and the struggle it was to put some things together, and thought that if they killed one of the other two on Tatterot it would single them down and Bessie and I could get together, especially if investigative effort was used by either Bessie or me, which would be a safe guess since we both claimed doing nothing on night 1. I also think that Bessie is a player that shines in the endgame, since they are more meticulous, Bessie mentioned this about herself in #658. I think the mafia wanted someone who they could get to vote easier and would be less detailed. So while I go back through I'll try to look for who I think fits these criteria the most.

Once I get through my re-read I'll do analysis on each specific person for Bessie killings, It'll take me a bit, due to being the weekend, but I should get done by the latest being Wednesday, I have exams Monday and Tuesday this week, otherwise I'd get there faster. I'll be interacting when I can in the thread during that time.
 

HeuryAlone

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I lovingly await your case on swiss. I still am suspicious of swiss due to two reasons: the claim of being town core and everyone having him as town just isn't true. And the never explaining themself as to why they claimed vig.

I'd love to hear any cases anyone has, them tomorrow do a thorough re read of the remaining living players (assuming I'm alive to do so)
 

HeuryAlone

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I stopped Laser being lynched and went for Tatter. I was the only active player there to swing it where I could very reasonably have sheeped two confirmed towns with loud personalities. It would have been an insane bus.
I once played a game where the mafia partner has a chance to safely save their partner without being suspect and chose not to do it, and because of that one decision won the entire game. I don't think it's that insane. You were not busting tattertot from the start. I'd argue that laserguy and deadbanana as mafia would have been busier than you were d1.
 

Swiss

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I once played a game where the mafia partner has a chance to safely save their partner without being suspect and chose not to do it, and because of that one decision won the entire game. I don't think it's that insane. You were not busting tattertot from the start. I'd argue that laserguy and deadbanana as mafia would have been busier than you were d1.
You are suggesting I went from town reading him and defending him to hardcore bus in a 2v7 game day 1 when I didn’t need to?

I claimed vig to get conversation flow and see what info I could pull out. Same reason I pretended I knew sabrars role no one fake claimed vig

Have a look at ranmarus read on me - he knows me. Or feel free to go back and read my old games on this forum - I regularly fake claimed day 1.

You need to start thinking about what is scummy
 

Deadbananas

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Personally, Laserguy is my top town right now. I haven't looked through all his content yet, but I think the Bessie kill makes the least sense coming form him. He was defending her yesterday, so I would think Bessie and him would vote together especially since Bessie had Laser pretty high in terms of reads from what I recall. He also would have the Tattertot connection Ran brought up hanging over him, so scum!laserguy would be less inclined to think killing Bessie would generate an easy yeet on me. His vote on Tattertot was also at a pretty critical moment, and Laserguy definitely had an easy out for not casting that vote, since he had established he didn't like voting out new players earlier, and from what I can tell, has a history that agrees with that.

Heury and Swiss is a close one for me. Heury started out with that hedge post on Tattertot I have brought up before, but since he actually went and voted Tattertot later, when he could have said Tattertot was playing more like his town games now that he'd observed him more since Heury had the only meta on him, it brought my Heury read up. But Swiss also head down the yeet onto Tatter like he said, even though he started out by defending Tattertot. I specifically remember Swiss bringing up Tattertot crumbing town with the cat pfp as something super innocent and townie, and saying no one would coach that, besides Swiss himself. Swiss would have to be a really ballsy player to say that while having actually done it.
 

LaserGuy

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As promised:

Why Swiss is Mafia

I want to start with the single most important set of interactions in the game, the interaction that I think most conclusively demonstrates that Swiss is mafia. Not Swiss/Tatter (though I'll get to that), but rather Swiss/Sabrar.

Here's the important points.

Swiss softed vig early in the game. The only person who this seemed to bother at all was Sabrar. Everyone else either ignored it or maybe thought it was kind of LAMIST, but did not read much into it, whereas Sabrar clearly took it quite strongly. He was signalling that he himself was the vig, and Swiss picked up on this. I think there's an interesting shift in Swiss' tone on Sabrar somewhere around post 114. Early in their argument, Swiss is quite dismissive of Sabrar, but over the course of 114-195, Sabrar gets moved up from strong scumread to moderate Townlean. Sabrar, on the other hand, is as relentless as he has ever been, hammering his case on #350. The details of this case are actually not super important, though I think Sabrar makes a number of good points here that are worth revisiting. What is most important is that Sabrar is committed. Sabrar implies in posts such as #386 that Swiss will "resolve himself" by D2. I think the very strong implication here is that Sabrar is the vig and is going to shoot Swiss. At least the first point was apparently correct.


So here's the question, what is the play as mafia in this situation? You need to deflect Sabrar somehow. Mafia has no defense against the vig unless they randed a doc. At #523, Tatter is at 3 votes and there's very little time left. If Swiss is scum and tries to defend Tatter, but he gets yeeted anyway AND Sabrar takes the shot, game is over. How do you make the save as mafia? You have to bus, and bus hard. Here comes #524 where Swiss jumps on Tatter. But then I come up as a counterwagon. Swiss could move to me, but if he does, I get yeeted, but then Sabrar is probably going to be locked on his Ran/Swiss mafia idea and continue with his plan to shoot Swiss. So Swiss can't give up the bus and has to push through. With only 5 minutes left there may not be time to save Tatter anyway, and it's dangerous to try. So Swiss sacrifices his weaker partner and earns enough townie credit for Sabrar to be uncomfortable shooting him and going for Ran instead. And, finally and most importantly, Sabrar is then NKed. Who has the most to gain from this transaction? Swiss. Sabrar likely would have hounded him for the rest of the game. Who else would consider him a threat? Sabrar was not worried about DB or Heury. His EOD push on me was not well-motivated, only that he preferred me to Tattertot. Sabrar wanted Swiss. So Swiss sacrifices Tattertot to keep himself in the game. I want to highlight Ran's early-game meta read on Swiss:

LaserGuy said:
ranmaru , do you know Swiss? What can you tell me about their playstyle?
Ranmaru said:
I do, I have played with him long ago. He is a strong player, and I expect him to do long posts with +s and -s. He can be forceful as well. I think if you guys know of Ryker, he is simply British Ryker. My confidence level in reading him is low though.
Ryker plays a very chaotic style of play. He likes to make bold, crazy plays regardless of alignment. Similar to Xivii/Zen if you're more familiar with that. This read was not disputed by Swiss except for him to say that he taught Ryker. Swiss is more than capable of executing a planned bus like this.


Now let's turn to the interactions between Swiss and Tattertot.

First is this exchange:

#63: Tattertot claims he changed his avatar to a cat to look townie.
#67: Swiss says he doesn't understand the cat/dog thing.
#68: Swiss claims Tattertot is Town without explanation.
#71: Tattertot claims he is suspicious of Sabrar for "no good reason yet, just looking for one", immediately after Swiss suspects him.
#76: Tattertot doesn't think Swiss is mafia.
#81: Ran questions Swiss about why Tatter is Town.
#87: Swiss defends Tatter based on the cat avatar thing.

Swiss' reasoning here doesn't follow. In #67, he doesn't understand the cat/dog exchange. Therefore, his reason for townreading Tattertot couldn't be based on that in #68. It's only retrospectively that he has to come up with the reasoning for this. Ran was right all along about this. On the other side of things, Tatter suspects Sabrar for admittedly no good reason (#71), immediately following Swiss' #68. Tatter never returns to this scumread of Sabrar and ignores questions asked about it. There is an exchange later between Swiss and Tatter about his Sabrar read in #147-148 that comes across as super buddy-buddy. Swiss is not really interested in Tatter's motivations, he just wants to have it on record that he commented on it.


Swiss spends a lot of time defending Tatter through the middle section of the D1:

#114: Tatter Town based on the cat thing.
#121: Defends Tatter again.
#284: Tatter gets obvTown; gives me bonus points for reading Tatter as Town, tries to push Ran away from Tatter. Tatter is 2nd strongest townread here.
#382: Asks me about why I did partner analysis on Tatter (incidentally, this analysis basically says the only scum partner for Tatter is Swiss)
#405: Tatter might be default yeet but would rather Heury. Still townreading him.
#472: Sabrar and I are just discussing burying the Tatter yeet. Swiss votes somitomi, but complains about Tatter.

However, there is an abrupt shift at #472 just after Sabrar and I are discussing sealing the Tatter yeet, where Swiss suddenly shifts from a very strong townread to a very strong scumread on Tatter.

Despite this Swiss continues to try to push votes away from Tatter, e.g. in #502 he questions Heury's vote there.

Swiss finally commits to the bus in #524 when it is fairly clear that Tatter cannot be saved.


Two final points to consider:
One is this exchange in 407, 417, and 423.

#407, #417: Tatter likes these posts.
#423: Swiss complains about Tatter only liking but not commenting, Tatter never does.

This may be a minor point, but one worth noting: These are the only two posts in the entire game that Tattertot put a like on. These are the posts:
Bessie has typed a lot but said very little. Feels like she’s playing too safe.
^Says he won’t give in depth reasoning - gives in depth reasoning.


The towniness hurts my eyes
These fairly nothing posts. Tatter is in thread at this point, but does not give a like to anything else, anywhere. His only posts before EoD were two essentially naked votes. This a really weird interaction.

The other is this bit:
#129: Swiss has a bunch of these kind of smug "I'm just going to say I'm scum " type of posts that rub me the wrong way. It's like a reverse LAMIST. See #268 as well, and especially #572. He also has himself as scum in all of his read lists. I think there's kind of an ego thing going on that he doesn't just want to win as scum, but wants to win in style where he can point to all of the places that he said outright in thread he was mafia and nobody believed him.

tl;dr

Swiss is mafia.
-He bussed Tattertot to avoid getting shot by Sabrar.
-He shot Sabrar because Sabrar was deep tunneling him and likely would have continued to do so.
-Swiss and Tatter both have strange interactions in their early reads, taking unjustified positions based on the other's play.
-Throughout most of the game, Swiss defended Tatter, but abruptly switched his vote late in the day for dubious reasons.

See also Sabrar's case on Swiss in #350. Summary being:
-Fake vig claim is a dubious play coming from non-Town vig. His behaviour is consistent with Scum trying to draw out the vig.
-When Sabrar confronts him, he tries to discredit Sabrar rather than engaging him.
-He makes several comments (e.g. #158) that seem like they are trying to fake towntells and are not the kinds of things an experienced player would need to ask.
 

Deadbananas

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I just feel Laserguy benefits the least from a Bessie kill, since from my perspective before, and from what I can tell reading the thread on day 2 others perspectives as well, he was perceived as the least solidly cleared on the Tatterot wagon. So killing Bessie would put him in more danger, where as Swiss or Heury would benefit since they were more perceived more solidly clear from the flip
 

Deadbananas

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Is there a specific number of posts per page? Trying to go to the page the posts are on but keep missing lol
 

Swiss

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I just feel Laserguy benefits the least from a Bessie kill, since from my perspective before, and from what I can tell reading the thread on day 2 others perspectives as well, he was perceived as the least solidly cleared on the Tatterot wagon. So killing Bessie would put him in more danger, where as Swiss or Heury would benefit since they were more perceived more solidly clear from the flip
Depends on why scum are killing who they’re killing

Killing for vote control or killing to avoid power roles (watcher)
 

Swiss

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I lovingly await your case on swiss. I still am suspicious of swiss due to two reasons: the claim of being town core and everyone having him as town just isn't true. And the never explaining themself as to why they claimed vig.

I'd love to hear any cases anyone has, them tomorrow do a thorough re read of the remaining living players (assuming I'm alive to do so)
Also interesting to note it was laserguy himself that called me ‘locktown’ yesterday.
 

Deadbananas

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I'll await your defense eagerly Swiss.

I need to digest your case for a bit Laser. It definitely raises some good points that I didn't think about, like the Sabrar vig bus, and does hit on what I mentioned in the post right before about ballsy play.
 

Swiss

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I’m actually floored Heury could think I bussed in that situation.

Had the perfect reason not to stack the game against myself and yet for some reason decided to?

I might not have played in 10 years but Jesus Christ man
 

Deadbananas

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Also how well do each of you know each other and more exactly how experienced is each of you?
I've played one game about a year ago with Laserguy where there were 16 people so we barely interacted and he was killed night 1. I know a bit more about him from my friend Malakandra who played scum with him.

I know the same about Heury as I do you.

I've been playing for a bit over a year now I think, usually at the pace of a game a month.
 

Swiss

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I'll await your defense eagerly Swiss.

I need to digest your case for a bit Laser. It definitely raises some good points that I didn't think about, like the Sabrar vig bus, and does hit on what I mentioned in the post right before about ballsy play.
The short answer is sabrar knew I wasn’t vig because I told him so - so the entire case falls flat.

I’ll quote tomorrow as going to sleep but it’s in one of my long daily posts
 

Deadbananas

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The short answer is sabrar knew I wasn’t vig because I told him so - so the entire case falls flat.

I’ll quote tomorrow as going to sleep but it’s in one of my long daily posts
I remember the post where you told him you overestimated him if he thought you were serious about vig.

I don't think that's part of the argument being made, but I'm still interested in your defense post when it comes out as a whole. Don't worry, I'm not interested in hammering this early and Heury seems set on no elim. I may be convinced to vote today since I think if I believe a case whole heartedly there's not much point in letting mafia kill one of the towns at night, but not until I get a defense atleast.
 

Swiss

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Proper catch up of this day phase

I lovingly await your case on swiss. I still am suspicious of swiss due to two reasons: the claim of being town core and everyone having him as town just isn't true. And the never explaining themself as to why they claimed vig.
Covered both of these now.

How are you more town than me?
I treat you as town, not a contest but obviously in my own world I happen to know I'm town. Plus the Tatter swing was massive. Changed the game and I won't shy away from lauding myself.

I once played a game where the mafia partner has a chance to safely save their partner without being suspect and chose not to do it, and because of that one decision won the entire game. I don't think it's that insane. You were not busting tattertot from the start. I'd argue that laserguy and deadbanana as mafia would have been busier than you were d1.
Exactly, I wasn't sussing tattertot from the beginning - so it's an insane swing of opinion to make last minute which went against my prior reads. I put my neck on the line for that read. Had he been town people would now be saying "wow swiss i cant believe you swapped your read conveniently at the last minute so you could vote off a townie" and sussing me. If you don't give me kudos for being correct you are structuring me into a lose/lose. Which shows you are not approaching the game from the right angle. That's on you not on me.

Personally, Laserguy is my top town right now. I haven't looked through all his content yet, but I think the Bessie kill makes the least sense coming form him. He was defending her yesterday, so I would think Bessie and him would vote together especially since Bessie had Laser pretty high in terms of reads from what I recall. He also would have the Tattertot connection Ran brought up hanging over him, so scum!laserguy would be less inclined to think killing Bessie would generate an easy yeet on me. His vote on Tattertot was also at a pretty critical moment, and Laserguy definitely had an easy out for not casting that vote, since he had established he didn't like voting out new players earlier, and from what I can tell, has a history that agrees with that.

Heury and Swiss is a close one for me. Heury started out with that hedge post on Tattertot I have brought up before, but since he actually went and voted Tattertot later, when he could have said Tattertot was playing more like his town games now that he'd observed him more since Heury had the only meta on him, it brought my Heury read up. But Swiss also head down the yeet onto Tatter like he said, even though he started out by defending Tattertot. I specifically remember Swiss bringing up Tattertot crumbing town with the cat pfp as something super innocent and townie, and saying no one would coach that, besides Swiss himself. Swiss would have to be a really ballsy player to say that while having actually done it.
I think Heury is current;y town, rip if I'm wrong. I think if you're scum the game is probably over and well played. Had my reservations but, well, it is what it is. I'll be doign a full re-read so subject to change. The night kills have all been on unexpected people, which means that the scum believes they are being townread - so remoevs Heury from the suspect list fown to Laser, DB and of course me.
Laser who is very unexpectedly going full throttle at me. Good for me but bad for the town having to decide.

Can you talk more about your Laser townread, specifically not D1 as I also townread him.

Re; the wifom of your last sentence. That's exactly what it is, wifom. I am a ballsy player, but I'm also a smart player. And smart players don't bus their own teammate when they don't need to.


Lasrs big post next
 

Swiss

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As promised:

Why Swiss is Mafia

I want to start with the single most important set of interactions in the game, the interaction that I think most conclusively demonstrates that Swiss is mafia. Not Swiss/Tatter (though I'll get to that), but rather Swiss/Sabrar.

Here's the important points.

Swiss softed vig early in the game. The only person who this seemed to bother at all was Sabrar. Everyone else either ignored it or maybe thought it was kind of LAMIST, but did not read much into it, whereas Sabrar clearly took it quite strongly. He was signalling that he himself was the vig, and Swiss picked up on this. I think there's an interesting shift in Swiss' tone on Sabrar somewhere around post 114. Early in their argument, Swiss is quite dismissive of Sabrar, but over the course of 114-195, Sabrar gets moved up from strong scumread to moderate Townlean. Sabrar, on the other hand, is as relentless as he has ever been, hammering his case on #350. The details of this case are actually not super important, though I think Sabrar makes a number of good points here that are worth revisiting. What is most important is that Sabrar is committed. Sabrar implies in posts such as #386 that Swiss will "resolve himself" by D2. I think the very strong implication here is that Sabrar is the vig and is going to shoot Swiss. At least the first point was apparently correct.
Why was Sabrar going to shoot me? After he realised I wasn't really claiming vig he seemed to have no issue with me, never voted me and was pushing other votes.

In fact Sabrar's opinion of me is, eve when he sussed me mid of D1 was (Re: Ranmaru post #322) " Don't be too excited about it, it's mostly the link he has with you with some minor other stuff thrown in. " So most of his sus on me came from a Ranmaru sus. One which, as scum, I would know is wrong. This works in my favour to keep sabrar alive as when Ran flips, I look good.

Also important to note that Sabrar seems slow and unwilling to acknowledge I'm not the vig, because he wants that target on me, which I was fine with, keeping him alive.
He even acknowledges he can be wrong here: " I can obviously see that my Swiss-read might be coming from a tunnel due to different playstyles " which he knows and is confirmed by the only player who knew me, Ran.

By 75% way of D1 I'm very open about not being vig. Particually when I fail a little gambit on Heury. #404 and before

In fact, Sabrar's last post is voting for LaserGuy. Who gains the most from killing Sabrar I wonder. Maybe the guy he's trying to lynch?

The final 3 people on the LaserGuy wagon were all town and are now all dead.




So here's the question, what is the play as mafia in this situation? You need to deflect Sabrar somehow. Mafia has no defense against the vig unless they randed a doc. At #523, Tatter is at 3 votes and there's very little time left. If Swiss is scum and tries to defend Tatter, but he gets yeeted anyway AND Sabrar takes the shot, game is over. How do you make the save as mafia? You have to bus, and bus hard. Here comes #524 where Swiss jumps on Tatter. But then I come up as a counterwagon. Swiss could move to me, but if he does, I get yeeted, but then Sabrar is probably going to be locked on his Ran/Swiss mafia idea and continue with his plan to shoot Swiss. So Swiss can't give up the bus and has to push through. With only 5 minutes left there may not be time to save Tatter anyway, and it's dangerous to try. So Swiss sacrifices his weaker partner and earns enough townie credit for Sabrar to be uncomfortable shooting him and going for Ran instead. And, finally and most importantly, Sabrar is then NKed. Who has the most to gain from this transaction? Swiss. Sabrar likely would have hounded him for the rest of the game. Who else would consider him a threat? Sabrar was not worried about DB or Heury. His EOD push on me was not well-motivated, only that he preferred me to Tattertot. Sabrar wanted Swiss. So Swiss sacrifices Tattertot to keep himself in the game.:

Here we come to the least believable part of the case, so many moving parts that have to work in your favour here I'm genuinely amazed I have to respond to it. Apart fromt he insaly obvius Occams Razor, where the simple and obvious solution is the correct one as opposed to a very convoluted one, let's get into it.

At this point I didn't know Sabrar was vig, and I do not believe anyone here had Sabrar as a good vig read. Heury & DB, be honest with yourselves here and ask this question because his case hinges on me 100% knowing Sabrar was the vig. Did you know or even suspect he was vig?
As soon as you consider this the entre paragraph becomes empty, because it all hinges on an incredible, initial assumption. This is a classic case of making a case assuming current knowledge was also past knowledge. At best poor town play as it's open tunnelling. At worst, and perhaps more simply. it's scummy.




Now let's turn to the interactions between Swiss and Tattertot.

First is this exchange:

#63: Tattertot claims he changed his avatar to a cat to look townie.
#67: Swiss says he doesn't understand the cat/dog thing.
#68: Swiss claims Tattertot is Town without explanation.
#71: Tattertot claims he is suspicious of Sabrar for "no good reason yet, just looking for one", immediately after Swiss suspects him.
#76: Tattertot doesn't think Swiss is mafia.
#81: Ran questions Swiss about why Tatter is Town.
#87: Swiss defends Tatter based on the cat avatar thing.

Swiss' reasoning here doesn't follow. In #67, he doesn't understand the cat/dog exchange. Therefore, his reason for townreading Tattertot couldn't be based on that in #68. It's only retrospectively that he has to come up with the reasoning for this. Ran was right all along about this. On the other side of things, Tatter suspects Sabrar for admittedly no good reason (#71), immediately following Swiss' #68. Tatter never returns to this scumread of Sabrar and ignores questions asked about it. There is an exchange later between Swiss and Tatter about his Sabrar read in #147-148 that comes across as super buddy-buddy. Swiss is not really interested in Tatter's motivations, he just wants to have it on record that he commented on it.
No no no, you don't get to rephrase that. My #68 is a townread on his reasoning for wanting to crumb town with a cat pic. Absolutely nothing to do with that ongoing charade of cats and dogs which I assumed started prior, with you lost mostly knowing each other.



more following
 

Swiss

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However, there is an abrupt shift at #472 just after Sabrar and I are discussing sealing the Tatter yeet, where Swiss suddenly shifts from a very strong townread to a very strong scumread on Tatter.

Despite this Swiss continues to try to push votes away from Tatter, e.g. in #502 he questions Heury's vote there.

Swiss finally commits to the bus in #524 when it is fairly clear that Tatter cannot be saved.
This is outright lie and you know it.

Tatter 'can't be saved?' If I'd voted you he would have been saved. You are serously tryign to turn my lynching scum against me - and in the process skim over the fact that all three dead townies had their votes on YOU.

Your entire case is full of this, deliberately phrasing things in certain ways to make me look bad. As opposed to pulling out genuine things. It is a FACT that what I did saved you and got Tatter lynched, and I'll not sit here and have you ignore facts.

DB I think I need to appeal to you first and foremost here, and you'll need to reconsider your stance on Laser also.
 

Swiss

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I'll await your defense eagerly Swiss.

I need to digest your case for a bit Laser. It definitely raises some good points that I didn't think about, like the Sabrar vig bus, and does hit on what I mentioned in the post right before about ballsy play.
Man saying someone will do a ballsy play just means you can then later accuse them of ****ing anything no matter how unbelievable. That's not a case.
 

Swiss

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-Fake vig claim is a dubious play coming from non-Town vig. His behaviour is consistent with Scum trying to draw out the vig.
-When Sabrar confronts him, he tries to discredit Sabrar rather than engaging him.
-He makes several comments (e.g. #158) that seem like they are trying to fake towntells and are not the kinds of things an experienced player would need to ask.
In short, no vig would counter claim that. I used it as a gambit as per all my meta, go and check.

Sabrar was an idiot, he shot Ran

That's bs and you know it
 

Wam

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Votals 4 alive 3 to lynch

No elimination - 1 - heury alone
Swiss - 1 - laserguy

Deadline april 1st 12pm gmt
 

Deadbananas

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Swiss, I'll get to your defense v laser later in the day phase. Sorry, it's not really fair to you but I'd rather be able to give it the attention and read it deserves on a laptop where I can pull up the other posts.

Can you talk more about your Laser townread, specifically not D1 as I also townread him.
Besides what I hit on about his position on Bessie and the analysis of the Bessie nk.

There hasn't been much content, but I feel D2 laser was engaged and working to figure things out. He was the first to bring up the possibility of Sabrar being a vig, and engaged with my case on Bessie in a meaningful way, where as, from memory, everyone else mostly skirted past it or engaged a bit, besides Bessie ofc. I think he's proven to be actively trying, and that was the main point I remembered Ran and Sabrar bringing against him, that he lacked conviction, I think he's shown conviction.
 
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