Twisted Fate Mafia [D3 BEGINS, DEADLINE: 3/8 at 11:59 PM EST]

[Xatres]

You think Dastrn/Xatres are working together? Why not say that earlier instead of now?

I mean, I think that's been pretty obvious. Dastrn and I are brothers and work well together, so it's not unexpected that we gel well in a mafia game.

And yes, I agree with RR. If Gheb were to flip scum, it reflects well on us. If he flips town, then it reflects poorly. Gheb's flip also sheds light on all Gheb's reads and opinions (we'll know if they were from a scum or town perspective) and sheds some light on the people reluctant to vote for him now. So yes, there is stuff to learn.

On the topic of J: I said before and I'll repeat here. I don't think J's flip will give us nearly as much info as a Gheb or Spak flip does. J's push on Ryker at the beginning of the day fell perfectly in line with my thoughts on Ryker (and several others) early in the Day. Since then J's been relatively inactive. So to me, J's really not an option. If you go for the inactive/policy lynch, we're better off removing TSYK. If you go with actual scumhunting, then J's lynch gives us very little info, and I haven't got any compelling reason to think he's scum.

So of Gheb and Spak, I think Gheb's the best choice between those two, for reasons already stated in detail.

 

[ThatSmasherYouKnow]

Yeah, Gheb flipping town will get us nowhere, but right now I think Gheb is 60% more likely to be scum instead of town, and those are our best chances at the moment.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

If Gheb were to flip scum, it reflects well on us. If he flips town, then it reflects poorly. Gheb's flip also sheds light on all Gheb's reads and opinions (we'll know if they were from a scum or town perspective) and sheds some light on the people reluctant to vote for him now. So yes, there is stuff to learn.

I don't think my flip will actually tell people that much about you two. Dastrn's posts in particular could've been made by a misguided townie just as much as by a scumbag. It's better to try and figure it out via his posts than through my flip.

Also, my flip won't really tell you anything relevant about my reads and opinions. Me flipping town only means that my posts have been genuine but that has no bearing on the accuracy of my reads. My traitor read on Maven doesn't become one bit more or less plausible upon my townflip. In the same hand it'd be terribly naive to think that my scumflip would incriminate any of the people that I've called town. You're really oversimplifying this matter. Everybody who stresses the information aspect of my lynch does.

 

[Dastrn]

I mean, I think that's been pretty obvious. Dastrn and I are brothers and work well together, so it's not unexpected that we gel well in a mafia game.

And yes, I agree with RR. If Gheb were to flip scum, it reflects well on us. If he flips town, then it reflects poorly. Gheb's flip also sheds light on all Gheb's reads and opinions (we'll know if they were from a scum or town perspective) and sheds some light on the people reluctant to vote for him now. So yes, there is stuff to learn.

On the topic of J: I said before and I'll repeat here. I don't think J's flip will give us nearly as much info as a Gheb or Spak flip does. J's push on Ryker at the beginning of the day fell perfectly in line with my thoughts on Ryker (and several others) early in the Day. Since then J's been relatively inactive. So to me, J's really not an option. If you go for the inactive/policy lynch, we're better off removing TSYK. If you go with actual scumhunting, then J's lynch gives us very little info, and I haven't got any compelling reason to think he's scum.

So of Gheb and Spak, I think Gheb's the best choice between those two, for reasons already stated in detail.

So here's a question: What if we could get a little of both ideals? Hit scum AND hit inactive? If a J lynch gives us that, then even though we don't pick up as many connections, we still pick up some lack of connections, if that makes sense. Like the current 4 votes per candidate situation, Corps basically saying he won't vote for either, etc. We also get stronger confirmation that Ryker, Dastrn, and Xatres are likely town, which narrows the target pool for Day 3.

I need to reread a little with this idea in mind to see some stuff. I'll be around.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

We also get stronger confirmation that Ryker, Dastrn, and Xatres are likely town, [...]

No, we don't.

 

[ThatSmasherYouKnow]

No, we don't.

Why don't we? Elaborate.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Why don't we? Elaborate.

Why would a J scumflip make Dastrn or Xatres more townie? I'd agree in Ryker's case though I still don't quite see how a J townflip would be particularly helpful. Ryker has pushed J a some point but none of you is capable to tell wrongtown!Ryker apart from scum!Ryker. So yeah scum!J gives us a little, town!J gives us next to nothing.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Sigh.

Vote: TSYK

 

[Xatres]

I don't think my flip will actually tell people that much about you two. Dastrn's posts in particular could've been made by a misguided townie just as much as by a scumbag. It's better to try and figure it out via his posts than through my flip.

Also, my flip won't really tell you anything relevant about my reads and opinions. Me flipping town only means that my posts have been genuine but that has no bearing on the accuracy of my reads. My traitor read on Maven doesn't become one bit more or less plausible upon my townflip. In the same hand it'd be terribly naive to think that my scumflip would incriminate any of the people that I've called town. You're really oversimplifying this matter. Everybody who stresses the information aspect of my lynch does.

Two points:

1) I'm voting you because I think you're the scummiest player in game. I made a lengthy post about this that no one has attempted to refute yet. My top priority is hunting scum, and I think you're it.

2) We DO learn things from your flip. You said it yourself: "Me flipping town only means that my posts have been genuine but that has no bearing on the accuracy of my reads." This is true. You've obviously pushed bad lynches (Kantrip). But the genuineness of your reads is critical for interpreting your actions and other people's reactions to them.

You are also mischaracterizing what we stand to gain from your scumflip. You say, "In the same hand it'd be terribly naive to think that my scumflip would incriminate any of the people that I've called town."

But we have a lot more to gain than information about your reads. Information about your reads in *important*, whatever you might say, but it's not EVERYTHING. We also get a chance to see connections (who you interact with, independent of reads) and disconnections (who you fail to interact with, independent of reads). Scumflips are HUGE for town, and saying that they aren't is ridiculous.

All that being said: YOU are the one oversimplifying the situation, not me.

 

[Xatres]

So here's a question: What if we could get a little of both ideals? Hit scum AND hit inactive? If a J lynch gives us that, then even though we don't pick up as many connections, we still pick up some lack of connections, if that makes sense. Like the current 4 votes per candidate situation, Corps basically saying he won't vote for either, etc. We also get stronger confirmation that Ryker, Dastrn, and Xatres are likely town, which narrows the target pool for Day 3.

I need to reread a little with this idea in mind to see some stuff. I'll be around.

Because no one has made a compelling case for J being scum outside the Ryker push. I'm not even close to being comfortable voting for J on the basis of supposed scumminess. Take that away, and all you have is a policy lynch, and I'd rather lynch TSYK for that than J.

 

[Dastrn]

halfway through my reread of Day 2, but I'm feeling more interested in a J lynch the more I read.

So far, here's what my reread is confirming for me:
Ryker - Definitely town
Spak - Definitely town

 

[Maven89]

Don't understand why everyone is suddenly going super pro-town on Spak, I'm actually starting to lean in the opposite way. The more I look at his Kantrip defense, the more it seems like he never actually wanted to stop Kantrip's lynch. He admitted that. I also don't like his sudden panic on Gheb v Spak being TvS, or his sudden refusal to give his town read reasons for Gheb and then swapping to him.

Despite that, I still think Gheb is the best choice. He refuses to respond to anything thrown against him, he keeps insisting he has zero scum reads that he wants to push or deal with, when everyone else has multiple ones (what happened to the MavenTraitor read?), and is acting way too resigned for how I ever remember Gheb. I don't see any reason to not lynch him. I don't understand why people are insisting on an Info lynch now. We do a scummy lynch, and lynch to kill, not to gleam.

If J is scum then he's been scum in every single game I've played with him but one. I don't know what a townJ would even act like.

 

[Xatres]

Four hours to go. We need to come to some kind of concensus.

Dastrn - Any chance we could STV this?

Reference for those unfamiliar with STV:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=l8XOZJkozfI

 

[Dastrn]

I add Gheb/Spak there because I think one of them is Mafia but not the other, especially telling that Spak went out of his way to fully drop a post like thay

My reasoning for walling on Gheb's post is that everybody seemed to be like "yeah, I guess Kantrip looks scummy because of the arguments stated here" and nobody was actually looking at it with a town!Kantrip lens. If I were scum, I probably would have gone with thread sentiment (which would have made my life a lot easier) and go on with my life, but I wanted to show how someone could see town intent in Kantrip's posting. I don't know how unskilled of a player you think I am, but I find it hard to believe that someone would wall that much to defend a scummate.

The "bickering" I referred to between spak/gheb was not about them calling each other scum. It was about the sharp disagreement about Kantrip.
I don't believe a scum spak would have fought against the kantrip case so hard. I agree with Corps' read linked above that they are likely TvS.

The green is what makes me most confident at this point that spak is town.

Some relinks of why I think Spak is town.

 

[Dastrn]

Xatres I think J is the better target between our two current options. I can't see swinging all the way to TSYK or anyone else at this point.

 

[Dastrn]

I'm done with rereading day 2.

Strong Town:
Dastrn
Ryker
Spak

Null or better:
Xatres
Maven
Corps
TSYK

Don't like:
Red Ryu

Willing to Kill:
Gheb

WANT to kill:
J

 

[Maven89]

I'm torn on this. Big part of me feels like Gheb is tricking us and my ego isn't a fan of it. It also might be making me double down on the issue when I should be more open about it. He once wiped the floor with me by tricking me the entire game in a neighborhood.


But thinking on it, another day with Gheb being active could really shine a light on the issue. For J it probably won't.

Unvote

Vote: J

 

[Dastrn]

That list is in exact order. I'm not going to explain it like it's a Melee tier list or something. I've given reasons for most of these reads throughout the game.

 

[Maven89]

Choo choo all aboard the murder train, hop on and vote

 

[Dastrn]

That's L-2 on J, unless me or the last mod vote-count was inaccurate.

Xatres will you follow ?

 

[ThatSmasherYouKnow]

:/ As much as I think Gheb is scum and want to kill him, he's being more active than J and he could be more useful toMorrow.

Vote:J

 

[Xatres]

Here's the vote count between Gheb and J right now:

Gheb (L-4): Dastrn, Xatres
J (L-2): Ryker, Gheb, Maven, TSYK

Dastrn, I haven't seen you vote J yet, or did I miss your post?

I still think Gheb is easily the better play, but I'm willing to hammer J to avoid to the No Lynch.

 

[Spak]

OK, I'm here.

I meant in the sense that J is scum and tried to post a reason to vote Ryker and get a wagon started on him to appear as a scum read from J not pressure.

What about this post screams out to you that J wants to start a wagon on Ryker? It was his first post of the phase, and he gave a list of people he would consider lynching right after posting #546. Also, his #550 reads to me as pressure rather than trying to gather a wagon to lynch Ryker.

The J wagon is a bit concerning to me at the moment. I've not seen a cohesive case on J thus far, and he's just been put at L-2 (or L-1; not sure if the Dastrn or Xatres votecount is right). I'd be willing to vote J to avoid a NL, but I want to look more carefully at the wagon tomorrow and analyze who actually had a legit reason for voting J and who jumped on the wagon at the drop of a hat because it seemed like an easy, popular lynch.

 

[Dastrn]

I haven't switched yet. I've been holding my vote just so timing issues don't screw us up.

 

[Dastrn]

Xatres I'm ready to drop the hammer on this if you are.

J's last post was 28 hours ago. As much as I want him to show up and defend himself, I'm not holding my breath.

 

[#HBC | J]

Uuuuh I'm on date night with the boyfriend and had a 24 hour shift at the theatre yesterday and I check my phone to find out I'm at L-1?

What heinous act did I commit to end up being the top lynch candidate? I'm town and I'm gonna go enjoy some wine, but if you lynch me then we really do have the derpiest town I've seen in a while. Kanty lynch with my lunch equates to a MYLO where scum will skate with a victory.

Then again the last scum-team that lynched me had the 3 scum-team get back-to-back-to-back lynched so maybe it'll work again? I don't think so since this town doesn't seem to have a sane leader currently and more of a jumbled mess.

There is no case against me except if you disliked my Ryker case THAT much which is funny because it was 100% founded on logic which netted a good chunk of votes so if I'm being a martyr for that then so be it.

Unvote
Vote: Maven

I'm sticking to my guns and going with gut and making my point clear as to who I'd like gone on my town-flip.

If this is my last post, peace and best of luck.

If not, prepare for hell when I get back.

 

[Dastrn]

Xatres How are you reading this?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Oh boy, that switched while I was gone for a bit.

We good on lynching J?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Ninja J post one sec

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Who is around to vote with 2-3 hours to go?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

2 hours to go with EST.

 

[Xatres]

Xatres How are you reading this?

I've been against the J lynch this entire time. I only offered to hammer to avoid a no lynch. J's post does nothing to change that opinion.

 

[Spak]

Who is around to vote with 2-3 hours to go?

I'm here for another hour or so, but you've not yet shown me why a J lynch is a good idea.

 

[Spak]

Vote: Gheb until someone can convince me otherwise.

 

[Maven89]

Unvote

Vote: Gheb

People are more comfortable with this, so let's push it through

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Maven89 would you be around to switch to Gheb of need be?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

More ninja's.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Dastrn i think Gheb is the only option with an hour or two left.

Vote: Gheb

 

[Xatres]

Here's the votecount:

Gheb (L-1): Dastrn, Xatres, Spak, Maven, RR
J (L-3): Ryker, Gheb, TSYK

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I'm here for another hour or so, but you've not yet shown me why a J lynch is a good idea.

Read what J said in the back and forth he wanted Ryker not for pressure, he was the lynch J wanted.