Okay, post time. It's a wall, and it may require a lot of rereading and backtracking, as I'll be trying to connect a lot of dots and explain a lot of things in relatively simple ways, so get yourself something to eat or drink and put your critical thinking caps on.
Lessa go.
So, before I start dissecting everything I'm thinking, let me first establish
what it is that I will be dissecting. Things that we can agree are pretty much established truths.
First, Kary has single-mindedly cast suspicion on OS for the vast majority of the game. Obsessively, really. Even when OS was hardly a topic of discussion, Kary would throw out some unkind words or a vote toward his slot (if I need to round up quotes for this, I will, but that seems like a waste of time because I don't foresee anyone countering me on this. Plus, why clutter the post?), before usually eventually succumbing to public opinion on a mislynch.
Second, Kary originally claimed (and now once again claims) to be not just an independent, but a player
who has been recruited by the Inquisitor, as proven by the color he uses to highlight his name and the use of the word "shadow." Obviously taking Kary at his word on this is foolish, but it's worth noting what he's really claiming here, and the perspective it can put certain actions in. By his own words, he is not just indy; he is a
recruited player.
Third, OS is a role with a Strongman characteristic. He did not elect to give us this information; it was revealed by Ranmaru, back when we can safely assume Ranmaru was still town (and even if not, at least not aligned with OS). In fact, Ranmaru was specifically given the words "strongman," "potential," and "persistence" to describe OS' role.
Fourth, OS was visited by a killer who failed to do his primary action on N1 (Swords, correct me on the Night if I'm wrong here. I believe you said N1). Based on what we know from flipped players, this
must have been either Soup, the vigilante, or BRB, the Inquisitor. Technically, we don't know that it wasn't PJB, but that's unlikely given the deaths we saw on N2 (specifically, that there were a lot of them). It is unlikely that his poison was blocked, as there were three bodies that Night, and it would have specifically required OS to have been protected by Chuckie (I actually can't remember if this could potentially have happened. Swords, refresh me on what you saw happen to OS on that Night if you'd like).
Fifth, the Inquisitor died on N2, meaning that he had a maximum of two Night phases to be able to use his role. Some of you may already know where I'm going with this....
I have begun to believe that it is very possible that Kary is telling the truth about his claim—not just about being indy, but also about being a mafia traitor (or at the very least) mafia. He was the latter and is now the former. But here's the kicker—he's not alone! Overswarm was also recruited by the Inquisitor. And they were likely both initially mafia!
Did I just blow your mind?!
Okay, hold on. Before everyone starts accusing me of taking crazy pills, let me back up.
As previously established, Overswarm was targeted for a kill on N1, but it was blocked. So either Soup tried to kill him, which would have been harmless, or BRB tried to kill him, which would have immediately resulted in an IndyOS, regardless of what he had been before. Which do we think is more likely? Admittedly, this is speculation, but we're going to be needing to do a little bit of that....
Soup's incentive for targeting OS: Kills a player that many other players find difficult to read/intimidating, but could also potentially be quite a boon for town later if he's on our side. Seems awfully risky for a N1 kill. It is more likely that Soup would target an inactive or someone deemed worthless or detrimental. Kantrip would fit the former on D1, while Labatt fit the latter, so it's likely one of them actually took his bullet.
BRB's incentive for targeting OS: It's a win-win. He either successfully kills one of the sharper minds in the game (although OS' play this game has been notably terrible from a town perspective this game, but more on that later), and one that he doesn't get along with and would be annoying to deal with, or he recruits a player into his factions who is known primarily for how good he is at manipulation. Seems like an obvious first choice.
I say this puts the likelihood of OS being one of BRB's aspects (and being so for almost the entire game), at "very plausible." Not only does being scum explain all of the completely zany choices he has made and reads he has expressed, but him specifically being recruited to the Inquisitor's faction on N1 would also explain how Indy-hunting happy he got on D2, and how hard he fought for the idea of Chuckie being the Inquisitor in question (which I freely admit I bought hook, line and sinker at the time; the man can make a case out of sawdust...).
This
also would explain why OS so readily believed Kary's claim of being indy, despite all of the information that was open to the rest of us at the time pointing to Kary being mafia. TownOS would be level-headed and say "yeah, you're scum, we're lynching you. I don't leave known scum alive." The OS we have in this game, however, said "Indy you say? Despite obvTown Swords claiming a mod confirmed mafia result on you, I'll allow it. We should look elsewhere, lads. And really, how obvTown
is this Sworddancer fellow...?" OS knows Kary is truly indy because he himself is indy and aligned with Kary. In fact, if I am right to believe that OS began the game as mafia rather than town, then he may have directed BRB to target Kary in order to try to begin recruiting his old faction. That would be a pretty smart way of nullifying an outside threat, and would make OS's job easier by not having to play spy on too many sides at once.
OS knew Kary's claim on D6(?) wouldn't fly on its own, so he did his damnedest to give it wings. He openly advocated not for
another lynch (as in, one other than Kary), but for a NO LYNCH, clearly indicating that he had no actual intention of doing what he claimed to think was best ("lynch mafia; they're the real threat!"), but to simply stall the lynch and hope he could keep Kary alive long enough to use his ability.
Which leads nicely into my next point. TownOS, without extra knowledge, would never have done something as stupid as vote PJB in lylo, halfway through the Day. Especially given the stink he gave over the prospect of Kary getting lynched. Yes, PJB was mafia, so that's neat—but TownOS would not have known this with any certainty! He would not have put a potential townie in danger like that, under the guise of "Oops! Forgot Kary claimed executioner! Lolz, my b my b." That's not how OS plays. His actions make much more sense if we assume that he and Kary are aligned, and planned to set up a believable scenario to execute PJB all day long.
This theory also puts the seemingly conflicting facts regarding PJB and Kary into a much clearer light. PJB was mafia. If Kary and OS were initially his scumbuddies, but were recruited by the Inquisitor on Nights 1 and 2, then that would explain why PJB would avoid hammering Kary, but Kary, with Overswarm's help, would actively choose to execute PJB once they got the chance to do so with just two votes. It's far too bold to be a bus. It seems more likely to me that they were trying to eliminate the final threat, the one mafia member they weren't able to recruit along with them. Simplify the game.
But that's not all. There is one other reason that I could see OS and Kary choosing to eliminate PJB that I don't think I've seen expressed yet, largely because it involves loose threads that many people (myself included) have not been interested in trying to make meet in a while. Allow me to revisit and try to shed some light.
Remember how OS is a Strongman role? This is objectively true, no faith required. He was forced to claim this several Days ago. At the time, I rather foolishly believed that it was most likely some answer to a Mafia Doctor or some other shenanigans, mostly because I found it so unlikely that the mafia would actually be equipped with a Strongman in this setup. And I was still drinking the OS koolaid. However, it becomes easier to digest if we examine the "potential" characteristic that Ranmaru found in him. Perhaps OS was not a role with the potential to become a Strongman upon our vigilante's death, as he claims. Perhaps he is a role with the potential to take over the mafia's kill if their first killing role (the Poisoner) falls, not as a new Poisoner, but as a much better killing role, a Strongman, allowing OS to kill players that were previously immune to everything but a lynch before. This would be a sensible trade off for losing a mafia member, especially one with a relatively weak method of killing. This would also explain OS' interest in finally getting PJB out of the way. Once PJB had nearly run his course and OS and Kary were finally able to off him without any help from town, OS set PJB up for the execution and told Kary to swing away. It probably took PJB as much by surprise as it did us.
The
one flaw in this theory that I can see is that Swords was apparently told through Kantrip's ability that Kary is straight up mafia, rather than indy, and in order for my theory to be true, Kary would have had to have been indy ever since at least Night 2. The only explanation I can offer for this is that perhaps Kantrip's ability does not inform the players who "consult" him of the actual, current alignment of the player he targets, but of the alignment that the player has in his or her role PM. I will admit this involves me reaching a bit, as I know first hand that Nabe's way of relaying alignment in this way is no more or less detailed than "[player] is [alignment]." However, I do think it's a reasonable restriction for Kantrip's role to have, as opposed to a more *******y "Insane Detective" (which we should have seen him flip if that's really what he was). Plus, the alternative requires that Mafia Kary actually executed his mafia partner PJB, which would just be the craziest method of distancing I think I've ever seen.
If someone knows more about how Kantrip's role actually worked, please enlighten me. I don't remember him explaining it in much detail outside of "I'm kind of like a Cop, except X, Y, and Z" and I haven't had time to go back through the thread to check.
THE BOTTOM LINE:
I strongly believe that Kary and OS are aligned, and are the final two scum we are looking for. They are either both aspects of the Inquisitor, as I believe the play we've seen most likely suggests, or Swords' result on Kary is definitive, Kary is mafia, OS is his mafia mate, and they HARD bussed PJB. Regardless, the interplay between Kary and OS is too strong for me to ignore at this point. Kary has been transparently distancing himself from OS all game, which makes sense if they're mafia, and especially makes sense if they were mafia who almost immediately turned into a two-person indy team. OS has been
beyond irrational about...well, lots of things this game. But most importantly, the lynching of Kary and the careless endangering of PJB (a player who was a scum
lean at best for most of us before his flip).
Kary and OS are scum, and OS may have just gotten a role upgrade. For this reason, I'm almost tempted to go with Bardull and lynch OS instead of Kary toDay, but Kary is still the surer thing and his death is long overdue. Even if OS does have a new killing role, it's nothing we really need to worry about. If we lynch Kary and OS kills one of us, then that still puts him in lylo with two of us. I'm confident whoever is left will make the right decision.
Thanks for reading, you're beautiful.
Swords, Bro-dull, time to body these guys.
