Twin Christmas Parties 3+4 Mafia {The Matryoshka Scandal.} ~ Over! Who had the merriest Christmas? Who got lumps of coal?

[ranmaru]

I feel she would do that if *someone* in game has been frustrating her while also feeling 'moody'. When we hydra'd on MS, we were being attacked by Petroleumjelly, who seems a bit too much into "LaL" and a bit annoying, and she kinda just yelled at him due to being upset at him when he was just scum scumming it up.

I find it to be null. I haven't talked to her today though, so I don't know what exactly she is having a bad mood about. So I don't really know if she is genuinely in a bad mood. I don't really see a reason for her to say that in this game though, since she hasn't really been given much pressure. (I think she should explain what got her into the bad mood and how it is distracting her from the game)

 

[BarDulL]

Right now, I think scum lays in J, Circus, Kary, JTB. OS/July/RR are controversial for a couple of reasons, but I don't see them as immediate threats. I'm comfortable with PJB. Sword and Ran must be Town no matter what.

Circus primarily because he has been in the background most of the game which reminds me of his play in Gheb's game when Circus was a scum marker.

J...I can't really explain, just a feel. I'd have to look over his posts. I feel like he is jumping at July/RR too quickly without reading into them enough. Perhaps looking to policy them as opposed to lynching them off genuine reads.

Kary feels the least scummy of the 4 I listed. Feels like normal Kary except there's still an inkling of suspicion from me.

JTB because he's absolutely dead weight and will definitely be lynched/shot.

 

[Circus]

If I'm honest, Red Ryu still looks like the best lynch to me toDay.

I have every reason to believe Swords' claim right now. Therefor, since we have not seen anyone counter Ryu's claim of protecting OS on N1, I'm entirely willing to believe that he is telling the truth about targeting OS that Night. This and Ryu's recent AtE flare up do not persuade me to think he's town though. They just make me shift perspective to thinking that my B theory (Red Ryu is Mafia Doctor and protected scummate OS), may be more likely than my A theory (Red Ryu is lying about his claim and is trying to either clear or condemn OS, he can't seem to decide which).

If I may be frank, I don't care if he's town at this point. His recent play cements only one thing for me—that I don't want him in endgame with us. I would be astounded if he's town at this point, regardless of any "but why would scum be so baaaad" arguments that could be made. But even if he is, if I have to lynch somebody who isn't guaranteed scum, I'd much rather at least try Red Ryu at this point than July, whom I do not understand any of the hate for, or an unclaimed lurker like JTB or Kary.

As I type this, we're currently sitting about 14 hours from deadline. If we were going to hard snap to a player like JTB or Kary, then we should have made that clear much earlier than this so that we could get a claim out of one of them before the lynch. It's too late in the game for us to be lynching blind like that. I'm not a fan of either slot, but smash switching to one of them now is really, really reckless.

I'm not interested in lynching July. I've had a pretty good mindlink with her this Day phase in regards to Red Ryu, which is a great sign for her intent.

I'll refrain from voting for Red Ryu right now, just in case there are any directions that anyone else really feels strongly about going in, but I think he's the play toDay. I should be able to get online tomorrow before I go to work, so I'll be around for deadline. By then, I plan to either vote for Ryu to help finish off the Day if it isn't already done, or I guess whatever other direction the rest of you decide to boomerang to.

Where the hell is OS? Would love to read his thoughts on all of this.

 

[Circus]

Oh, hi Bardull.

 

[BarDulL]

Oh, hi Bardull.

 

[ranmaru]

I'm not interested in lynching July. I've had a pretty good mindlink with her this Day phase in regards to Red Ryu, which is a great sign for her intent.

Why is it a great sign for her intent? I just don't see that as a strong reason for you to be against it. What do you think of her claim, and the timing of her claim/reason for it?

 

[Circus]

It's a good sign for her intent, because I know my own intent. That our reads and reasons for those reads match so well suggests to me that we're coming from a similar frame of mind.

I find her claim believable. I think it was unnecessary for her to claim right now and I kind of wish she hadn't, but I don't think it was scummy of her to do. Mafia typically prefer to wait to claim later rather than elect to claim earlier in order to have more information to work with before committing to something the town can analyze, unless they're planning to pull some kind of gambit, which I don't see July trying to pull at all. It's null at worst.

 

[BarDulL]

Circus, explain why RR did what he did toDay. What was his plan all along? What was the end goal of claiming how and what he claimed if he's scum?

And why do it on this day phase, with PJB no less, with 11 players remaining? Was he going for game, or what?

I'll be blunt, I don't believe in an RR/OS scum team. While RR's claim is fishy as all hell, I don't see the scum intent in his play toDay.

 

[ranmaru]

I am willing to comprimise to july.

 

[ranmaru]

unvote vote: july

 

[Circus]

@Bardull: Do you see town intent?

He's voting for himself right now. He has no clear stances on anyone except apparently me, July and J, who are scummy to him because we are the ones who have been most vocally against him. He has not expressed an opinion on the player he alleges to have tried to kill last Night, nor has he attempted to pressure that player—nor really any other player. July said it best—he's sitting on his claim because he doesn't know what else to do.

Let's be clear. He has played against his alignment this game, no matter what it is. They way I interpret his play, he's more likely to be scum than town. He's dumb either way. He has expressly refused to scumhunt. Keeping him around in favor of lynching someone we really don't have any solid reasoning to switch to is crazy to me.

@Ran: It seems like you jumped from "null" to "down to lynch" on July pretty quickly to me. Talk to me about what you're thinking here.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Vote: July

Ending her sounds swell.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I posted a full read list earlier and that hasn't changed much read wise outside of OS town.

Skim harder.

 

[BarDulL]

@Bardull: Do you see town intent?

He's voting for himself right now. He has no clear stances on anyone except apparently me, July and J, who are scummy to him because we are the ones who have been most vocally against him. He has not expressed an opinion on the player he alleges to have tried to kill last Night, nor has he attempted to pressure that player—nor really any other player. July said it best—he's sitting on his claim because he doesn't know what else to do.

Anti-town, but not scummy. If you can't properly identify scum intent in RR's play, then why are you pushing for his lynch?

Let's be clear. He has played against his alignment this game, no matter what it is. They way I interpret his play, he's more likely to be scum than town. He's dumb either way. He has expressly refused to scumhunt. Keeping him around in favor of lynching someone we really don't have any solid reasoning to switch to is crazy to me.

Just because he's "dumb" doesn't make him scum. What's the point in scum hunting if you're not trying to read into intent?

I feel like you're copping out and trying to sell an RR lynch on policy, but I don't think that you think he's genuinely scum. You even answered my question with "Do you see town intent?" while not answering where his scum intent was.

 

[BarDulL]

And then RR has to jump on the July wagon.

Oh my gorf.

 

[BarDulL]

RR, what's your response to Circus' route?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I would vote Circus, but currently want July more.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Anti-town, but not scummy. If you can't properly identify scum intent in RR's play, then why are you pushing for his lynch?



Just because he's "dumb" doesn't make him scum. What's the point in scum hunting if you're not trying to read into intent?

I feel like you're copping out and trying to sell an RR lynch on policy, but I don't think that you think he's genuinely scum. You even answered my question with "Do you see town intent?" while not answering where his scum intent was.

I said this earlier with how he presented me and OS together, but yeah point stands.

 

[BarDulL]

I'm going to sleep.

Just in case this is needed,

@Mod - Request Deadline Extension

 

[Circus]

Anti-town, but not scummy. If you can't properly identify scum intent in RR's play, then why are you pushing for his lynch?



Just because he's "dumb" doesn't make him scum. What's the point in scum hunting if you're not trying to read into intent?

I feel like you're copping out and trying to sell an RR lynch on policy, but I don't think that you think he's genuinely scum. You even answered my question with "Do you see town intent?" while not answering where his scum intent was.

No, I've illustrated why I find Red Ryu scummy. My point with asking you if you see town intent is that you seem willing to let Red Ryu off the hook just because he threw a fit about his wagon and seems to have actually Doc'd OS if Swords' results are correct. I understand the desire to find a truly confident scum read at this stage of the game and lynch that, and I will admit that my scum read on Red Ryu is now weaker, but he's still the best thing we have to go on. July is towny to me and I don't get what everyone else is getting so hyper about in regards to her. Jumping to her because Ryu no longer looks like a sure thing looks like flatout panic to me and it's not smart.

The fact of the matter is that we don't have a great lynch candidate toDay, but Red Ryu is our best one. If I'm honest, yeah, I think he could be town. But his lynch does wonders for my read on OS and whether or not I'm going to be able to feel comfortable trusting him moving forward or not, and lynching July, I strongly feel, will get us a dead townie and leave us to deal with a guy who voted himself in lylo.

Try to smear me by calling it a policy lynch if you want, but it's a ****ing smart policy. If July or anyone else is such a demonstrably better option, then sell me on it.

 

[Circus]

*grumble grumble grumble*

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Circus how is it Lylo 11?

Do tell.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Nvm misread.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Explain July town.

 

[Circus]

Er...uh...I've explained July town?

Town intent.

Believable claim.

Are you reading my posts?

 

[Circus]

It's 4am and I need sleep.

If the wagon ends up flipping to July it's still better than nothing, but I ask that everyone take a minute to breathe before doing that. It's pretty clear to me that Swords' claim has caused a bit of a panic and now people are just flailing for a last minute alternative to someone who is objectively a detriment to us. Think before you lynch. I'll try to be back before deadline.

 

[Overswarm]

Vote: Red Ryu

I don't see how there's another option, and if Red Ryu flips town it clears Sworddancer which is important to me. Currently we only know that Sworddancer's ability is true (at least in regards to Ryu), and he only claimed after Red Ryu was in trouble. If they were a scum team, we'd have to lynch one of 'em to catch them. Mafia doc and Mafia Voyeur doesn't seem too far fetched.

Sorry inactivity, I'm going to have to read the whole Day for tomorrow. Work restarting and family obligations and all that on top of me just putting other things in front of mafia.

 

[ranmaru]

Circus, I was fine with putting my vote down on July to build some momemtum today, since I felt J and Bardull might swing from it.

I have expressed agreement with J's Fos on July before, and have given some points on things I didn't like from July. (Such as her reactions to J 'ignoring' RR's claim, which I felt forced, can you see my pov there?)

Anyways, I didn't like RR's hop onto July, it seems more like he is trying to save his hide than really find scum. (As in voting himself and stirring things up for people to lose direction)

Unvote vote Red Ryu

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Sick flu pucking can''t play.

LA

 

[BarDulL]

No, I've illustrated why I find Red Ryu scummy. My point with asking you if you see town intent is that you seem willing to let Red Ryu off the hook just because he threw a fit about his wagon and seems to have actually Doc'd OS if Swords' results are correct. I understand the desire to find a truly confident scum read at this stage of the game and lynch that, and I will admit that my scum read on Red Ryu is now weaker, but he's still the best thing we have to go on. July is towny to me and I don't get what everyone else is getting so hyper about in regards to her. Jumping to her because Ryu no longer looks like a sure thing looks like flatout panic to me and it's not smart.

The fact of the matter is that we don't have a great lynch candidate toDay, but Red Ryu is our best one. If I'm honest, yeah, I think he could be town. But his lynch does wonders for my read on OS and whether or not I'm going to be able to feel comfortable trusting him moving forward or not, and lynching July, I strongly feel, will get us a dead townie and leave us to deal with a guy who voted himself in lylo.

Try to smear me by calling it a policy lynch if you want, but it's a ****ing smart policy. If July or anyone else is such a demonstrably better option, then sell me on it.

Sorry man, but my bull**** meter is going off the charts while reading this post.

"if Swords' results are correct." It's an extremely safe assumption at this point to make that Sword is Town. Like, a surefire 99% chance. I'm not sure why you're questioning it. What you should be questioning is whether or not RR is the doctor that protected OS.

Your TownJuly is really vague, something about a mind link? I wish you would be more descriptive.

How does jumping to someone not RR look like panic? o_O.

LOL! You call it "smearing" but it's the truth dude, you're selling off someone who is potentially Town based on policy and it makes me sick to my stomach because you're not reading into intent. Yeah sure, he could be anti-town, but that doesn't make him scum. You admit to this and can't clearly label what scum RR was trying to accomplish. You've also said that RR could potentially just be playing really bad, to the point where scumRR wouldn't do what he did, but you're still ok with lynching him anyway. -_-. I find this to be scummy.

Can you draw the line between anti-town and scum for me on RR?

 

[BarDulL]

Vote: Red Ryu

I don't see how there's another option, and if Red Ryu flips town it clears Sworddancer which is important to me. Currently we only know that Sworddancer's ability is true (at least in regards to Ryu), and he only claimed after Red Ryu was in trouble. If they were a scum team, we'd have to lynch one of 'em to catch them. Mafia doc and Mafia Voyeur doesn't seem too far fetched.

Sorry inactivity, I'm going to have to read the whole Day for tomorrow. Work restarting and family obligations and all that on top of me just putting other things in front of mafia.

The likelihood that Sword is Town is already like a sure 99% with both July and RR confirming Sword's ability use. -_-

When are you claiming your flavor?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Bardull I love you, can people finish requesting an extension like certain morons who didn't?

 

[ranmaru]

It's 12:26 PM eastern, and deadline is at 4:00 PM Eeastern.

If we are all fine with an RR lynch, then we only need two more votes at the moment.

I don't see the reason for an extension unless J/Bardull want one

 

[#HBC | J]

J...I can't really explain, just a feel. I'd have to look over his posts. I feel like he is jumping at July/RR too quickly without reading into them enough. Perhaps looking to policy them as opposed to lynching them off genuine reads.

Uhm, what do you mean by this? I have a case on RR breaking down my read on him and a debate with July which pretty much turned into a case as to why I feel she is scummy. If I was just policy'ing RR, I would never have unvoted him.

If I'm honest, Red Ryu still looks like the best lynch to me toDay.

I have every reason to believe Swords' claim right now. Therefor, since we have not seen anyone counter Ryu's claim of protecting OS on N1, I'm entirely willing to believe that he is telling the truth about targeting OS that Night. This and Ryu's recent AtE flare up do not persuade me to think he's town though. They just make me shift perspective to thinking that my B theory (Red Ryu is Mafia Doctor and protected scummate OS), may be more likely than my A theory (Red Ryu is lying about his claim and is trying to either clear or condemn OS, he can't seem to decide which).

If I may be frank, I don't care if he's town at this point. His recent play cements only one thing for me—that I don't want him in endgame with us. I would be astounded if he's town at this point, regardless of any "but why would scum be so baaaad" arguments that could be made. But even if he is, if I have to lynch somebody who isn't guaranteed scum, I'd much rather at least try Red Ryu at this point than July, whom I do not understand any of the hate for, or an unclaimed lurker like JTB or Kary.

As I type this, we're currently sitting about 14 hours from deadline. If we were going to hard snap to a player like JTB or Kary, then we should have made that clear much earlier than this so that we could get a claim out of one of them before the lynch. It's too late in the game for us to be lynching blind like that. I'm not a fan of either slot, but smash switching to one of them now is really, really reckless.

I'm not interested in lynching July. I've had a pretty good mindlink with her this Day phase in regards to Red Ryu, which is a great sign for her intent.

I'll refrain from voting for Red Ryu right now, just in case there are any directions that anyone else really feels strongly about going in, but I think he's the play toDay. I should be able to get online tomorrow before I go to work, so I'll be around for deadline. By then, I plan to either vote for Ryu to help finish off the Day if it isn't already done, or I guess whatever other direction the rest of you decide to boomerang to.

Where the hell is OS? Would love to read his thoughts on all of this.

Circus, this is by far your worst post for me this game. You say that RR may be the best lynch toDay, but you continue to go on about how Sword's may have cleared RR for you and that he is town so why would you want to lynch him?

I feel like you're copping out and trying to sell an RR lynch on policy, but I don't think that you think he's genuinely scum. You even answered my question with "Do you see town intent?" while not answering where his scum intent was.

110% agree with this statement at Circus.

I also agree with Ranmaru that RR's jump on vote to July looks like he is more wanting to save his own hide instead of going with a read he truly feels.

After sleeping on the decision, I am really starting to doubt that RR may be scum but I have no one else I can push in 4 hours to lynch by deadline. I won't be on a computer by deadline and will be browsing through my phone so if we need a vote/hammer on RR, I can do it.

 

[ranmaru]

Well Red Ryu is at Four votes I believe.

Since no one else is currently posting off the wagon, would be best if you voted him and have someone else hammer.

 

[Circus]

Sorry man, but my bull**** meter is going off the charts while reading this post.

"if Swords' results are correct." It's an extremely safe assumption at this point to make that Sword is Town. Like, a surefire 99% chance. I'm not sure why you're questioning it. What you should be questioning is whether or not RR is the doctor that protected OS.

Seriously, is anyone actually reading what I'm saying?

I did not question Swords' alignment (he's one of my strongest town reads). I just said, as you quoted, that if Swords' results are correct, then we know Red Ryu is telling the truth about at least having a protective ability on N1. I say this because we still have plenty of unclaimed roles, and Swords' N2 action has apparently already been tampered with. There's a lot we don't know about this game; acting like all Night actions are gospel right now is dumb. To be clear, I believe that Swords' results from D1 are most likely accurate.

"What should be questioning is whether or not RR is the doctor that protected OS?" No ****, that's exactly what I am questioning and why Red Ryu is the best lynch. I laid this out in my big post a few days ago and mentioned it again in my last one.

Your TownJuly is really vague, something about a mind link? I wish you would be more descriptive.

Bardull, at this point I'm just getting annoyed. I have not been vague about this. My read on July is based around the fact that she is one of the few people in the game who I feel I have been able to not only understand intent but feel it myself because it seems to match mine. It's the same reason Gheb was such a strong town read for me in Mass Effect even when other people were getting at him about stupid ****. His reads matched mine and the reasons he gave for those reads also matched mine. And he expressed them without wagon hopping or buddying me. The same is true of July in this game. Of all the players in this game, she was one of the only ones who reacted to Ryu's play toDay in a way that mirrored my own. Because I know my intent, I now also feel like I know July's intent. And that's one of the strongest ways you can form a read. I find her claim believable and none of the arguments I've seen posed against her make me question my read with any kind of seriousness.

I hope that's finally clear.

How does jumping to someone not RR look like panic? o_O.

Because we were only about a day out from deadline when people started doing it, which is not enough time to form a strong direction in which to go? Because people decided to mainly jump on a player that they couldn't find any real concrete reasoning to jump to? Literally, it seems like everyone just woke up when Swords claimed his Night actions and screamed "Uh oh! Red Ryu might be town!" and then started clambering for someone else. The reason that's dumb is that anyone we try to lynch without a Cop guilty might be town, but for some reason people aren't willing to see that. They're not considering that July might be town, and is, in fact, more likely to be town than Ryu is.

I typically don't like being outright mean, but I'm pulling my hair out watching you guys being so stupid about this. We're not letting Ryu wiggle out of this lynch. I feel like Marshy here....

LOL! You call it "smearing" but it's the truth dude, you're selling off someone who is potentially Town based on policy and it makes me sick to my stomach because you're not reading into intent. Yeah sure, he could be anti-town, but that doesn't make him scum. You admit to this and can't clearly label what scum RR was trying to accomplish. You've also said that RR could potentially just be playing really bad, to the point where scumRR wouldn't do what he did, but you're still ok with lynching him anyway. -_-. I find this to be scummy.

You are...I can't even...you're twisting my words so much!

I never said that Red Ryu might be too stupid to be scum—not once. I actually specifically attacked Overswarm for making that very assertion earlier in the Day.

I do not think Red Ryu is town. I genuinely think he is scum. The only difference now is that when I initially made my case on Red Ryu, I thought he was an absolute slam dunk. Now it's not as sure of a thing. That doesn't mean he's more likely to be town now. I think my Mafia Doctor theory is now the most likely theory due to Swords' claim, and lynching Red Ryu now is great, because a scum flip will basically condemn OS, who might otherwise get away clean without his flip. It also practically clears July with the way he jumped on her wagon the second he saw the opportunity; unlikely that he would do that to a scummate.

If he does flip town, which is going to be a possibility no matter who we lynch dammit, then that puts me at ease about OS and at least means we don't need to worry about the bitter WIFOM that we would have to deal with if we actually kept him in endgame.

Can you draw the line between anti-town and scum for me on RR?

Scum Doctor Ryu protects his scumbuddy OS. Scum Doctor Ryu attempts a gambit on PJB because he thinks it'll be an easy lynch. Scum Doctor Ryu is the one able to do this because, with our Vigilante now dead, scum has no reason to keep his role alive. Why does he do this on D4 if it's not, as far as anyone can figure, mylo/lylo? I don't know exactly, but I've been thinking he most likely thought it was mylo or lylo. You, as I recall, seemed to think it was lylo earlier in the Day; it's not such a farfetched idea. In fact, that would do a good job in explaining why he later just dropped his attack on PJB altogether, rather than simply dropping the "you survived my kill whyyyy" point and continuing to pressure PJB about his play. He ran in, guns blazing, without thinking things through, and suddenly found himself in a precarious situation, so he just pulled out cold.

This move from Red Ryu is objectively dumb. It's dumb if he's scum and thought it was lylo; it's dumb if he's town and thought PJB surviving a kill was legitimately anything to go off of. It does not somehow negate his scumminess out of sheer stupidity.

Red Ryu then proceeds to do nothing but sit on his claim for the rest of the Day and OMGUS the people who rightly attack him for what he tried to pull at the start of the Day. Sit on his claim and pout—that's what he did with this Day. Oh, and jump onto July's wagon in the most opportunistic way I've ever seen after voting for himself and going on and on about how town needs his flip.

I think Red Ryu is scum and would like to lynch him. If we had more time, I might be willing to look in other areas for a better alternative, but it was too late in the Day to try that a long time ago and mods don't grant deadline extensions just because we ask nicely (it'll be interesting to see if any scum asked for a deadline extension toDay in order to put on appearances). We're at the end of the Day, we need to make a lynch happen, and we could be wrong, but if we're going to be wrong on someone, I'd rather it be on someone like Ryu than July, no contest. Even if he does flip town, we at least have somewhere to go toMorrow. If we lynch July and we're wrong, that gives us nothing but a dead doctor. I don't get why you're bending over backwards to keep Red Ryu around. I want him dead.

Vote: Red Ryu

If Red Ryu flips scum, I don't want to hear another word out of anyone about me or July. If he flips town, I suspect I will become Undesirable No. 1, which would be terribly annoying in lylo, but I guess I'll have to find a way to deal.

Someone hammer.

 

[ranmaru]

Still need one more vote I think.

J, END HIM.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Sigh.

vote: Red Ryu

Rather give you my flip.

Go town.

 

[BarDulL]

**********************************************************************

 

[BarDulL]

I don't believe in this lynch at all. I don't know why so many people were on this lynch.

I'm not going to deal with Circus' post right now but I am literally pushing him full force toMorrow.