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Twin Christmas Parties 3+4 Mafia {The Matryoshka Scandal.} ~ Over! Who had the merriest Christmas? Who got lumps of coal?

#HBC | Joker

Space Marine
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damnit, I'm not gonna be around today and I wanted to drop a Ryu vote before leaving. I don't wanna hammer him yet though :/ Guess I'll just leave some thoughts

@Ryu. You realize that what you're doing isn't going to be looked upon in great light? Like, if you flip scum, nobody is gonna just go for J/July/Circus because you're clearly WIFOMing. If you're town, you are playing really dumb, and nobody is gonna trust your judgment.

What you're doing here reads like scum trying to cut the day short. The fact that what you're doing isn't unheard of does not make it a good plan. In fact, it makes it worse, because the fact that it isn't unheard of just decreases the impact of it.

I'm going to vote you if stuff isn't better looking by tomorrow, possibly later tonight.
 

#HBC | J

Prince of DGamesia
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Alright so whoever is here tonight with me to be able to talk, we are figuring out who we are lynching.
 

#HBC | J

Prince of DGamesia
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Aight bro, let's get this done.

Bardull let's talk scenarios. We lynch RR, what is your theory on his flip? Based on his attitude I am leaning he is either town who royally screwed up and is just something that should have duct tape put on him or he is scum making a very last AtE attempt. Leaning towards idiotic town at the current time.

Who would you lynch if you had the ability to swing it in less then 24 hours?

This music is so good. I must play this game.
 

#HBC | J

Prince of DGamesia
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Messages
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Colorado
For reference, here are all four claims in order that they appeared.

[collapse=claims]
Oh no, there is no third protective that was me n1 and n2, and I don't believe for a second a townie used their doc on you.

I'm Shu Nakajima, town genius.

Whoever gets lynched I turn into a one night back up for them or in N2s case whoever dies first.

N1 I found out I was a doctor and protected OS.

This is why I questioned if Chuckie was actually trolling or not when they looked serious about it.

N2 I turned into the poison protection doctor, it removes poison or stops it from targeting the player, that was what I was told.

N3 happened and I turned into a chemist vig and shot you.

I back up protectives so I seriously doubt there is a fourth one.

I'm damn sure Nabe tells people when they are token locked bass on Halloween mafia.

So why are you alive?

:phone:
I was

Rise Kujikawa, Town Scanner Cop.

I then became Risette, Town Confused Scanner cop.

Originally, I was able to check any one during the day, and find something related with their character.

The change, was that I then thought at night. So every night I am thinking, and if I am interrupted, I will be told I was during the start of the day.

I get my results in twilight.
Because I'm a vigilante backup, and I have the strongman characteristic. Hard to see why there wouldn't be a vig if I'm a backup of one. I was confused at Ranmaru's claim because I am a strong man, but it doesn't say so in my role name. It's a modifier within my role.

Regardless, I have soup's vigilante ability. I didn't use it because shooting incorrectly would have been game over.

With 9 players left (assuming I shot + mafia kill) and 4 mafia (6 presents, 1 inquisitor, 1 La B, 4 mafia), that would have resulted in a 4 man voting block of scum needing 5 to lynch, meaning they could alpha strike almost immediately after someone voted. 8 left, followed by a mafia night kill would mean 7, add in a vig kill and we're at 6. Mafia wins by default with or without the vig kill.

I asked you specifically because you've taken a leading role in my absence and that's pretty notable. I wanted to hear your take on things. If you're going to get lynched, it's going to be because I'm attacking you in thread and currently I've got nada on you. That's not good if you're scum, so I need to watch you.

I'm cleared of being a mafia strongman because if I had just killed someone we would have been in lylo and, being a strongman, there's nothing that could have stopped me. If someone wants to openly claim they roleblocked me, go for it, but our jailer is dead and I'm positive nothing of the sort occurred because there has been no suspicion on me since the beginning until Ranmaru's claim.
I haven't finished J's reads post, but with the direction things are generally going against RR I think it to be important that I claim my role now. Also, I'm really not sure about my survivability at this point, especially after claiming that I have some relevant information earlier, so yeah.

I am Aigis, town weak voyeur-cop. Every Night, I can target a player and see all actions that occurred to that player. I am a "weak" cop though because I can only see the "generic" actions that occur to the player I use my ability on. For example, say I use my voyeur ability on someone who's vigged. The result that I'll get is that I saw a "killing" role target that player that Night. Now say that that mafia tried to Night kill them instead. Same thing, I'll only see that a "killing" role targeted them during the Night.

I also have a role modifier that prevents any other role besides killing roles from effecting me during the Night.

Night 1 I targeted OS. I saw a "kill," a "protect," an "inspect (me)" and a "miscellaneous" target OS that Night.

By Night 2's deadline, I still have yet to catch up. So I just targeted OS again. However, I was forced to target RR (IDK why, the mod just said that I was forced to target RR). The only role that I saw visit RR that Night was my own (I see all Night actions that happen to a player, including my own).

Night 3 I targeted J. Two inspects (one being my own) visited him.

So here's the thing. I was thinking Day 2, after Le's flip, that either the mafia targeted OS or the indie did. If the indie did, then OS is probably an aspect. The thing is is that OS could still be mafia recruited as an indie, which is why his strongman doesn't work. It's just speculation, but nevertheless consider it.

In any case I didn't think him a threat, which is why I didn't claim immediately. If he was an aspect, so what? He wouldn't be able to kill, so I ignored him as a suspect for the time being.

Now I need to ask a question. How does poison work exactly? When does poison finally kill its target?

It's possible, I guess, that if poison is slow enough, RR could have intercepted it. However, I doubt that. IIRC, poison kill at the end of the next Day, unless I am mistaken (feel free to correct me if I'm wrong).

Otherwise, the mafia would have to have had some other means of killing IF the mafia were the ones to target OS Night 1. Which makes sense, I guess. After all, two people died Night 1. If there was poison involved, then only one person would have died (since poison is delayed, and OS was protected from another kill).

Also, while I hate RR's play, this casts him in somewhat of a positive light. I can confirm that a protect did visit OS Night 1. I need to check in with Nabe to see if RR's role would count as a "protect" or a "miscellaneous" (although I doubt he'll directly confirm this for me).

Confused about why I targeted RR Night 2. Nabe's wording was that I was "forced" to target RR, which implies a redirect, but my role modifier makes it so that I shouldn't be effected by redirects. So my only explanation right now is that of a bus driver. Again, another thing that I need to check in with Nabe.

I wanted to wait until OS talked more about his role and JTB said his "revelation" (which btw has went nowhere), but Day light is starting to run short. We have less than 48 hours to lynch, and I want there to be time for everyone to see this and ingest it. \

Anyways, I'll let you guys chew on this information now. For the time being, I'm out.
[/collapse]

By my logic here is what I feel is going on right now. At the current time, we have OS, in my books, cleared unless he is some sort of indy variant due to Inquisitor after N1, however for now, not mafia. I also feel he is telling the truth in this matter if we are to believe Swords which makes Swords clear in my book too. We have OS/Swords telling the truth and town.

I feel like this is a certain puzzle from VLR, certain one in the lounge about 2 truths and a lie. ('cept here it is 3 possible truths and a lie) At the current time, we have two other claims.

Ranmaru's claim also paints him in a positive light for me because OS confirms his result and Ranmaru's actions have been definitely towny this game and I see no reason to suspect him. The time of his claim and his actions regarding it was great as well.

Then we have RR. However what I would like to bring up is that we need two final pieces of this puzzle because two people need to claim in order to help us figure this all out. We have been trying to solve a puzzle without all the needed information

PBJ

&

July

Both have a role in this from either what RR claims (PBJ) and someone alluding to having a CC/discrepancy result with RR (July). July was more subtle with this and she needs to out what she has now ASAP. PBJ needs to claim because we need to see if all the information he should have works and checks out with the claims we have been presented with.

Going to continue searching for clues.
 

BarDulL

Town Vampire
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Woah, missed your posts. I've been rereading through the start of the day up 'til now, and I have a general idea who I think scum is so far.

Gonna read your posts now.
 

BarDulL

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Aight bro, let's get this done.

Bardull let's talk scenarios. We lynch RR, what is your theory on his flip? Based on his attitude I am leaning he is either town who royally screwed up and is just something that should have duct tape put on him or he is scum making a very last AtE attempt. Leaning towards idiotic town at the current time.

Who would you lynch if you had the ability to swing it in less then 24 hours?

This music is so good. I must play this game.
Best game evah.

Right now, my read on RR goes two ways, but either way, I don't think he's the right play. If RR is scum, there's a reason why he wants to get lynched, because his "lynch me" tangent seems somewhat unprovoked and I'm not sure exactly what caused it. I don't see a visible trigger, so it's either a variable we are unaware of (perhaps RR is a Yak of sorts) or RR has just about had it with this game because he feels he doesn't have the influence to push the game in the direction he wants. Either way, I don't think he's the correct lynch for toDay despite the evidence against him and the oddities surrounding his claim, specifically that he didn't back-up Raziek. I have to reread his night action selection rationale again in order to really know for sure if RR is legit.

Right now, I can't answer that question. Give me like 20 minutes.
 

#HBC | J

Prince of DGamesia
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Woah, missed your posts. I've been rereading through the start of the day up 'til now, and I have a general idea who I think scum is so far.

Gonna read your posts now.
I'm curious for your thoughts, Bardull.

And OS flavour claiming is not the most important thing for me.
 

BarDulL

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I'm curious for your thoughts, Bardull.

And OS flavour claiming is not the most important thing for me.
It is important. If those characteristics don't match up with his flavor claim, then he may just be a liar liar pants on fire. I've thoroughly played P3/P4 and there's quite literally only one character that fits the bill for "strongman, potential, persistence."

Even if OS doesn't seem like likely scum, getting this little factoid out of the way helps.
 

#HBC | J

Prince of DGamesia
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I think Nabe knows these game two if he made it specifically for his Halloween Style game. I would be willing to bet even if there is only one character and OS happened to be scum, he would have the perfect safe-claim since Nabe is that sort of mod. However, I guess it is worth a shot and getting all info is better than missing some.

@OS: Next post, can you give us your character/flavour claim?
 

BarDulL

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Some extra thoughts:

I feel pretty comfortable with PJB. Nothing sticks out as off to me. I don't think he should be lynched toDay whatsoever.
 

BarDulL

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Mhmm, Ranmaru's claim, I think, actually clears OS more than condemns him if I am understanding all of this correctly. Which brings to mind why are people hoping on "one of Ran/OS must be scum due to lying/roles." when both could still be telling the truth and be town.

The scenario I am much more interested in is RR and PBJ. RR shot PBJ but nothing happened.

Speaking of, isn't strongman a gun-weilding role or am I thinking of some other role?
J, this post. Why are you clearing OS based on Ran's characteristics when we both know that these characteristics are null? Unless it says "good" or "evil," it's a toss up.

Also, I don't think Nabe would screw over Ran's role by supplying OS the perfect safeclaim. That would just be ub3r lame. ~_~
 

July

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I'm just going to claim.

Before N1 I found out my role was Teddie Teddie, Town Dia-Doctor. My role description was that I could protect a player from ANY ability that could kill them during the Night, with a modifier that I could not be targeted by abilities that would protect myself during the Night, so from that point I knew there were multiple protective roles.

I protected Chuckie N1, which is why I was so surprised and became very intrigued by the way D2 played out with the Chuckie wagon.

Then before N2 I found out that I was now Naked Teddie, Town Switch-Doctor. I can now protect someone with my bear suit which protects them for ANY activities which could poison or kill them during the Night or which could change their alignment. My modifiers are Naked, which means that any activities which target me will be redirected to the person on whom I used my active ability, My Fur Makes Two which gives me a second vote, and Potential, which means my role can change again if certain conditions are met.

N2 and N3 I targeted Swords. I'm guessing the Naked ability is why his results got all messed up N2, and I'm guessing that N3 he was the nk target since there was no kill that Night.

RR's claim immediately seemed suspect to me because I'm not sure how many protectives we have, but he spoke with the assumption that there were no other protective roles out there which gave me the feeling he claimed thinking that there would be no doctor counter-claim (even though I didn't protect OS N1), I don't think he expected me to exist. It seemed unlikely for me that his role would apply to protectives as well when there are already quite a few protectives AND when my role was so specific to state that other protectives can not protect me, I'm guessing for balancing issues.

Anyways, Potential and the language of changing roles is what stood out to me about Ran's claim and made me think he's town along with the role itself.

Also, J, in your latest big post you said that Ran has been playing towny so you don't need to worry about him, but that's definitely not the sentiment you had earlier in the Day. What changed?

It's still hard for me to believe that RR's role makes sense in this game with protective roles out the *** already and with the weird circumstances of his role where he backs up everything but alternatively the lynch victim and nk victim or whatever, but his freakout is frustrated townie rather than scummy.

I don't know where to look to now, I disagree with Swords that J is most obvtown next to him, I just don't but as I've said my town reads are much stronger than my scum reads at this point so my cases are weak as hell and I know that.
 

BarDulL

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Huh, I was about to get to you July. I have a couple things I want to say about your slot, but can you tell me what provoked you to claim Doctor?
 

BarDulL

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Man, there are just so many good posts this game and no one is blatantly scummy. It makes me think almost by PoE that we should just hit JTB and see what happens.

July is definitely someone I suspect at the moment. I have a couple reasons, namely her earlier read on Circus (Town) and her read on Ranmaru being Town on the grounds of "genuinely scum hunting" when Ran hasn't really been scum hunting at all, which seems like a potential slip up on her part.

Circus' super long wall post was really well written, but my biggest qualm with it is "why would RR take this kind of risk if we're not on LyLo?" Why would RR come up with a half baked fake claim and try to lynch PJB if he's not going for game?
 

#HBC | J

Prince of DGamesia
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J, this post. Why are you clearing OS based on Ran's characteristics when we both know that these characteristics are null? Unless it says "good" or "evil," it's a toss up.

Also, I don't think Nabe would screw over Ran's role by supplying OS the perfect safeclaim. That would just be ub3r lame. ~_~
I am not clearing OS based on Ran's characteristics. I am clearing him more on Sword's NAs.

The safe-claim could have the same characteristics as his real role is what I am getting at.

Also, J, in your latest big post you said that Ran has been playing towny so you don't need to worry about him, but that's definitely not the sentiment you had earlier in the Day. What changed?
Ever since Ran started posting more and after his claim, I've had a town read on him. I have said that he has been playing towny. I even mentioned in my read's list post, I stated Ranmaru as one of my strong town reads. What are you talking about my opinion changing, July?
 

BarDulL

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Aight.

This game is getting way out of hand for me to do a satisfactory catchup.

Request Deadline Extension

unfortunately I don't think i'll be online tomorrow so i've gotta throw this down now.

From what I've seen from Swords/J etc. it looks like there's no way I'm getting OS lynched toDay, which is a shame because when you look past all of the clever talk and arguments, and to what OS has actually done this game it's more or less;
D1; push a lynch on the grounds that any lynch is good for information
D2; push a lynch on the wild assumption that Chuckie was LeBat :urg:
D3; sit on his hands until he could take pot-shots at RR

So can we please lynch his scummy a$$ tomorrow?

Now,

Vote: Red Ryu

My biggest problem with RR is this:


He's sitting on his claim.

As I understand it, he threw the claim out in the first place to push PJB, but I'm not convinced as to how legit that was. I could see RR being rash and doing that, and part of me wants to say that his claim is so messed up that he ought to be town. But that's all I have in his favour.

Now, I don't know why scum RR would decide to put out a weird claim and sit on it. Of all things, he claims to have protected OS N1, and Swords's results (which I trust almost completely) seem to back this up. Obviously he's also claimed a shot on PJB.

Where was RR going with this? I don't know. But right now I find myself looking at a game where OS is plausibly clear, RR is plausibly clear, and both are claiming to have backed up Soup.

What the hell is going on.

Give me a gun right now, I shoot OS. But I'm more than prepared to believe that this is some sort of OS/RR masterplan to setup a standoff/bus on D3. Look at how the Day could've moved towards PJB until that failed to gain traction. How it could still swing towards me/JTB if this standoff doesn't resolve. It smells to me like something is waay up, and of the other possibilities (Ranscum etc., scumteam all lurking) these all seem less likely.

The thing that really sells me on it is the number of kills. Presumably it should be 3 on N1 one from Soup, one from the indy faction, one from mafia. Only two bodies. Presumably someone got a protect in, right?
Now assume OS is scum and mafia have a doctor. Who else would they protect N1 but OS, the lynchpin?
I don't have long enough in the Day to sit and see whether RR will continue to appeal to his claim of having protected OS. But right now that's what he is doing and I don't like it at all. I can totally see mafia having a doc in a setup with 2 other killing roles, and I'm more than prepared to lynch RR on that analysis than clear him on the grounds that his play doesn't make sense as scum.

Anyhow, I hope I got that all across. I'm on library internet again and my mind is racing. I'll try and get on again tomorrow but no promises I'm afraid. You probably wanted those reads from me, aye?

Swords, J, Bardull - obvtown

Ranmaru -I don't want to doubt this guy, seems like natural townRan, and i'm sure more posts will prove that so lean town.
Circus- I really want to say town because the walls read legit, but I don't like the way he comes out of the shadows or how his thoughts don't seem to follow mine, so null for now.
July- I kinda like this game, I think if she was scum she'd be prod-dodging more, townlean.
PJB- I hate reading this guy's posts because he's so defensive and self-righteous as town, but I don't see anything other than that from him right now so going to assume town.
JTB- want to say town based on meta, but there's no way i'm clearing him on that, null

think that's everyone, but gotta run again as it is.

OS, please don't shoot me.

All best,
Kary
There's something wrong with this train of thought, but I can't put my finger on it. Someone help me out here.
 

BarDulL

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I am not clearing OS based on Ran's characteristics. I am clearing him more on Sword's NAs.

The safe-claim could have the same characteristics as his real role is what I am getting at.
Hmm, maybe. Let's find out.

Ever since Ran started posting more and after his claim, I've had a town read on him. I have said that he has been playing towny. I even mentioned in my read's list post, I stated Ranmaru as one of my strong town reads. What are you talking about my opinion changing, July?
Can you show me what posts you are referring to? I feel that Ran's saving grace is definitely his claim, and OS' confirmation of Ran makes Ran defo Town. Nothing else really speaks volumes from what I can remember.
 

July

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Huh, I was about to get to you July. I have a couple things I want to say about your slot, but can you tell me what provoked you to claim Doctor?
A couple of reasons. I'm in a similar position as Swords where I pretty much have no time from now until the end of the semester, as I will be either working on finals or spending time with my boyfriend before he moves 3000 miles away ;-; And I'm rather jaded at this point, I don't have many strong reads nor do I have a strong desire to wade through all the claims and cases and possible lies so I decided to throw out what I have here and you can do with it what you will.

July is definitely someone I suspect at the moment. I have a couple reasons, namely her earlier read on Circus (Town) and her read on Ranmaru being Town on the grounds of "genuinely scum hunting" when Ran hasn't really been scum hunting at all, which seems like a potential slip up on her part.
You have to understand that with Ran, I know his play better than anyone, I don't care what other people's meta is on him, I can read him like a book. Once I understood what his thought process was with his claim he was very clearly, distinctly town and very clearly, distinctly trying to help scumhunt toDay. As for Circus, I do think he's town, he's been playing logically and rationally and I don't see scum intent from him.

Ever since Ran started posting more and after his claim, I've had a town read on him. I have said that he has been playing towny. I even mentioned in my read's list post, I stated Ranmaru as one of my strong town reads. What are you talking about my opinion changing, July?
Because I remembered you saying that you thought that Ran's play was scumy but his claim wasn't, I wanted to know when you switched to a view that his play is towny now.
 

BarDulL

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A couple of reasons. I'm in a similar position as Swords where I pretty much have no time from now until the end of the semester, as I will be either working on finals or spending time with my boyfriend before he moves 3000 miles away ;-; And I'm rather jaded at this point, I don't have many strong reads nor do I have a strong desire to wade through all the claims and cases and possible lies so I decided to throw out what I have here and you can do with it what you will.
I see this as more of a pre-emptive claim and it's shooting all kinds of alarms in all honesty.
 

BarDulL

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Give me an inkling cuz nothing is screaming blatant to me.
Like, there's something wrong with the RR/OS connection he postulates. He also tells OS not to shoot him but isn't that an insinuation that he thinks OS is Town?

He also suggests that this is some kind of ploy for RR and OS to stage off against each other, but why in the name of any possibly existing higher powers out there would OS tell RR to stage this kind of debacle with OS? I seriously don't see it as SvS whatsoever of the same alignment, and it's really just a bad play in the grand scheme of things at this stage of the game.
 

July

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I see this as more of a pre-emptive claim and it's shooting all kinds of alarms in all honesty.
It is pre-emptive in some ways, I anticipated that between now and the deadline people were going to want things from me and have questions for me that I simply don't have time for and there's always the possibility that in my absence, or more accurately lack of a strong presence or quick reaction time, I'll get quicklynched. Why does it send up alarms?
 

BarDulL

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July, can you tell me how what you did was pro-town? It clears Sworddancer, but he wasn't in a position of getting lynched. With good chance, you're the last "doctor" we've got, why would you out with 10 other players still alive? I mean, you're essentially turning yourself into a night kill choice as a result and I'm not really understanding the rationale behind the claim. Sure, you postulate you don't necessary have the time to participate in this game with Finals coming around, but it just feels so counter-intuitive as a town move, and surely you would be able to claim if you were up for being lynched even if you have finals, wouldn't that have been a more appropriate time for claiming?
 

BarDulL

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It is pre-emptive in some ways, I anticipated that between now and the deadline people were going to want things from me and have questions for me that I simply don't have time for and there's always the possibility that in my absence, or more accurately lack of a strong presence or quick reaction time, I'll get quicklynched. Why does it send up alarms?
I'm wondering if you're a mafia bus driver or not.
 

July

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It was selfish, but honestly I have nothing else to bring to this game right now. All of my scum reads either made claims that cleared them or created confusion around whether they could be scum or not. The only scum read I have right now is J and no one shares that so whatever. I'm jaded, I'm in a ***** mood, I don't feel like fighting with J, I don't feel like fighting with anyone, I didn't feel like getting pushed into a back and forth which would inevitably result in my claim anyways, so I just threw all my information out there now.
 

#HBC | J

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Because I remembered you saying that you thought that Ran's play was scumy but his claim wasn't, I wanted to know when you switched to a view that his play is towny now.
I don't think I've ever said Ran was scummy.

Like, there's something wrong with the RR/OS connection he postulates. He also tells OS not to shoot him but isn't that an insinuation that he thinks OS is Town?

He also suggests that this is some kind of ploy for RR and OS to stage off against each other, but why in the name of any possibly existing higher powers out there would OS tell RR to stage this kind of debacle with OS? I seriously don't see it as SvS whatsoever of the same alignment, and it's really just a bad play in the grand scheme of things at this stage of the game.
I mean it's odd but at the same time, it's Kary. It doesn't seem odd his theory based on him being so wanting of OS yesterDay. For me I am feeling more on one of RR/July being scum especially now with July's claim but I am trying to figure which one of the two is the scum.
 

ranmaru

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I actually felt it was odd he came out of no where to just hop on Red Ryu. If RR flipped scum, Kary should be looked at with scrutiny. ~_^

J, what do you think of Kary's reasoning to get on RR?
 

#HBC | J

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Seems a little forced and rushed but I contributed that to the fact that he was rushing in his post due to V/LA/Life things and the like. Most of his posts have been of a similar nature.
 

BarDulL

Town Vampire
Joined
Mar 17, 2008
Messages
5,211
Location
Austin, Texas
JTB, if you're there, now's a good time to say something, otherwise I'm thinking about spearheading your lynch before deadline. Reads would be nice as well as any theories you have.
 

BarDulL

Town Vampire
Joined
Mar 17, 2008
Messages
5,211
Location
Austin, Texas
It was selfish, but honestly I have nothing else to bring to this game right now. All of my scum reads either made claims that cleared them or created confusion around whether they could be scum or not. The only scum read I have right now is J and no one shares that so whatever. I'm jaded, I'm in a ***** mood, I don't feel like fighting with J, I don't feel like fighting with anyone, I didn't feel like getting pushed into a back and forth which would inevitably result in my claim anyways, so I just threw all my information out there now.
I understand you're postulating that you are not in the best of moods, but I definitely don't want something like that inhibiting Town's ability to win this game. That being said...

Please go more in-depth with your J scum read if you can. I don't remember seeing it in recent memory. If I did, it wasn't entirely conclusive. On that note, isn't that something you could have contributed outside of the game aside from claiming?
 
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