TWEWY Mafia | scumbags victorious

[#HBC | Dancer]

I didn't know that this post was a reason why Swiss/Delvo is not the scum team . . .

 

[X1-12]

oh

#256-#261

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Btw X1, my questions please?

AIf Sho-Minamimoto actually was Sho-Minamimoto, then the scum would have pushed against him for his silence and general nothing-play. That didn't happen. Dark Afro was at least relevant in his commentary, so any push against him would have felt forced.

Scum (mafia) wouldn't know who the sk is though.

 

[Afro Horse]

256-261 looks more deliberate to me, than anything.
Anyway, Delv is scum, I don't care about his partner. Swiss is likely IMO but not the be-all end-all.

 

[X1-12]

@X1: Is their any other reason you're voting Swiss, other than the fact that he considered voting for inactives?

Its not just that he considered it, it was a topic which hadn't been brought up at all, (and is a terribly bad idea in a game this small) but the way he says it to Cello, its like its leading him on to make cello think its a good idea. "We shouldn't lynch X1, unless you want him gone for being useless.."

 

[Swiss]

******** .

 

[Cello_Marl]

Scum (mafia) wouldn't know who the sk is though.

Do I have to hand-walk you through this? The Independent Masonry IS aware of who we think are scummy, Sho being one of them. If Sho is one of their own, they will attempt to shift Town's attention elsewhere. If not, then they would focus attention on him, regardless of Sho's alignment. This has not happened.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Your 357 made it sound like you were thinking along the lines that mafia knew who the sk was. Plus after skimming through a couple of posts I don't see anyone but you and I think Swiss express suspicion towards Sho, so the point that mafia would push for a non-mafia Sho seems null to me.

@Swiss: My question to you please.

 

[vanderzant]

With 8 Alive it takes 5 to lynch!

Delvro: (3) Swiss, Sho-Minamimoto, Afro Horse
Swiss: (1) X1-12
X1-12: (2) Delvro, Cello
Sho-Minamimoto: (1) Sworddancer
Not voting: (1) BSL

A deadline has been set for Midnight on the 12th Feb EST (10am AEST). That's about 3 Days!

Prods
Sho-Minamimoto: 2
Afro Horse: 1
Swiss: 1
Sworddancer: 1
BSL: 1
X1: 1

Mod Note: Delvro is V/LA until thursday

 

[Cello_Marl]

Your 357 made it sound like you were thinking along the lines that mafia knew who the sk was. Plus after skimming through a couple of posts I don't see anyone but you and I think Swiss express suspicion towards Sho, so the point that mafia would push for a non-mafia Sho seems null to me.

Mafia knows that scum that is not one of their own IS the SK.

I'm assuming that Zim (you) is/are not mafia, and I know that any push against him would be REALLY forced.

Nabe: "I'd be willing to take a lynch of either Swiss or Delv toDay. Sho is fine too."

There aren't many targets mafia can go after. If Sho isn't scum, then that would only leave Delvro, X1, Swiss, BSL and myself as possible lynches for Mafia to push. Trying to push against me is ********, and BSL is pretty townie. Two of the remaining players would be the mafia. That leaves only one other non-mafia player that mafia could push, and 2 of them are among our prime candidates for SK (and FBI Agent, whose claim would be just as much of a damper to IndMas plans as an SK lynch). Limiting themselves to a single target is foolishness. Even more foolish is not doing anything to pursue that goal.

So, who has been pushed for among those four by the same?

Delvro, by Swiss, Sho and Afro.
Swiss by X1.
Sho by no one.

If Delvro is mafia, he's being bussed on Day 1 in a system that has been SHOWN to leave mafia virtually helpless in such a situation. And we ARE going to kill each and every person that is on his wagon if he flips mafia (actually, we're going to do that for everyone that is on the mafia wagon, except for the FBI Agent and me).

Sho is mafia. So is X1.

A SK will also know that it's smart not to shoot during 3 vs 2 vs 1, as there is a 60% chance he could get scum and lose.

Independent Masonry traditionally have to equal the number of non-Independent Masonry players to win. Why do you know/believe differently? Also, 3v2v1 going into Night can only occur if we No Lynch. Even if you were right, then Lynching on 3v2v1 forces SK to shoot that Night since it would be 2v2v1. And if you're wrong, then forgoing the shot just makes it more likely that he will be investigated. At 2v2v1, it is in our best interests to keep No Lynching forever until SK does our job for us to shoot mafia; otherwise, we are more likely to go to 1v1v1 and a loss.

 

[BSL]

@mod: request replacement

sorry guys. cant do this.

 

[Cello_Marl]

Just skip pages 5 and 6. You won't miss anything important.

 

[Cello_Marl]

And page four.

 

[vanderzant]

Joey replaces BSL! Thanks Joey!

 

[BSL]

Just skip pages 5 and 6. You won't miss anything important.

And page four.

doesnt help

 

[Dooms]

Yaaay~ ^_^

Hello everyone! I will start my reading tonight and I'll have a post before I go to bed hopefully~

 

[Cello_Marl]

Joey, if I were to super-duper promise you that I was town, would you be willing to just vote for X1?

Either way, if a post doesn't fit entirely on your screen, skip it.

 

[Dooms]

I honestly just skimmed over a lot of it, since the main things I saw were talking about statistics of a no-lynch and stuff, which honestly we're past that.

Through my skim I didn't like Delvro, Swiss, and X1.

Vote: X1

 

[Cello_Marl]

Now all we need is Sworddancer and whoever else is town to vote for X1 and we are golden.

 

[Swiss]

Sorry guys. Was V/LA. Job interviews. Answers with some inflammatory comments coming.

A couple of things worry me about Swiss. In his interactions with X1, especially in his 251 and 253, he seems to be trying way too hard. Obviously he’s trying to get reactions, but I don’t see the townie intent behind doing so. I mean what, are you trying to get him angry? If so, why? How would that reflect on his alignment in anyway? Explain.

Pissed off angry X1 is much easier to read angry X1. Plus the kid's a douche so I don't feel bad about doing it. The way he responded to me shortly before I called him scum was wrong. Plus ******** reasoning from X1 is more of a scumtell than a towntell. As town he is still normally wrong, but the path he uses to make his inferences at least has a semblance of logic.

Some of Swiss’es reads match mine. That’s cool. . . I guess.

Nah.

I like how he got a non sk read on Zim with what I would consider sound logic, but I also know he’s not new to defending townies as scum for points so meh.

It's just WIFOM.

Overall Swiss is slight scum. If he is mafia he’s definitely not in it with X1. Right now I think that there are bigger fish to fry than Swiss.

Thanks. Let me slip through. See you in LyLo!

@Swiss: Would you agree that it’s funny how both of the hydra’s are the most inactive? IIrc, you’ve said earlier that Afro was playing safe. Would you say that this is evidence of that (the fact the a hydra is playing safe)?

No and no.

As we all obviously know, Cello has been number crunching for quite some time now. Do you feel, though, that all of it is necessary? If not, do you think that it’s excessive to the point that it’s scummy?

Excess from Cello can never be scummy.

Swiss, could you expend on your 237? Specifically, what do you mean when you say that Delvo’s reaction is like a “recycled version?”

Remember why I found Zim town. The way Delv reacted seemed like an attempt to re-create the town tell.


--------------

Would take the X1 lynch. Sho obv. Wanna see Nabe and Delv dead. Nabe over Delv. Delv isn't SK iirc?

Idk - skimmed too much and have extra stuff to do today.

Unvote Vote X1

 

[vanderzant]

With 8 Alive it takes 5 to lynch!

X1-12: (4) Delvro, Cello, -Joey-, Swiss
Delvro: (2) Sho-Minamimoto, Afro Horse
Swiss: (1) X1-12
Sho-Minamimoto: (1) Sworddancer

A deadline has been set for Midnight on the 12th Feb EST (10am AEST). That's less than 3 Days!

Prods
Sho-Minamimoto: 2
Afro Horse: 1
Swiss: 1
Sworddancer: 1
X1: 1

Will check for prods tomorrow.

 

[Swiss]

256-261 looks more deliberate to me, than anything.

Like, we're setting it up?

Yeah. Indie.

Unvote

Cello you saying Delv is town because we already know he isn't indie and you think he can't be scum?

Yes to X-scum. But might as well hit the indie first. Then we only need two town reads that we all agree on, which we already have.

Problem, scum?

 

[Cello_Marl]

Put your vote back on X1. You're the only person sure of your own alignment. After the Agent gets a guilty on Afro or an innocent on you will we lynch Afro before X1, or if X1 is the FBI Agent.

 

[Swiss]

If Afro gets FBI'd I'm sound as a bound.

Unvote Vote X1

Investigate Afro.

 

[X1-12]

Here#s the deal, we lynch X1 then the next day we are probably down two townies, as well as have gained bugger all because every single person on my wagon has given no reasoning for it. Above that it means you are letting Sho live after Swiss said to him "Oh yeah, hammer delv - Cello will love you" and the Sho actually tries to hammer Delvro when its only like a day or 2 into D1, how ****ing ********. You're so hung up on this thing that no-one even notices that when Joey comes into the game he jumps on the most popular wagon with no reasoning and his scumpicks magically line up with what everyone else has been saying. When I die you'll still have Joey and Swiss left who no-one in this game can read as well as I can

seriously wtf are you doing.

 

[Cello_Marl]

seriously wtf are you doing.

Winn ing.

 

[Cello_Marl]

But really then, who would be Sho's partner? Certainly not Swiss, who wouldn't have so blatantly directed his partner in thread. Obviously not Delvro. Obviously not me. Not you, according to you.

That leaves Joey/BSL, Swiss, Afro and Zim/Sworddancer. Zim/Sworddancer would be trying to push for his partner if he were mafia, and he isn't the FBI Agent since he didn't claim either that or mafia at L-1. One of BSL/Swiss/Afro is the FBI Agent, and the others (or technically Zim/Sword, but I think we're disregarding that possibility) is a Serial Killer. So, if you are Town, then we'll know who the mafia and the SK is. All we have to do then is lynch the SK, then each of the mafia in turn. And if the SK isn't compulsory, then Vanderzant will need to be flogged for running a set-up that starts Town in MyLo.

 

[X1-12]

so walk me through what happens when I flip town?

 

[Cello_Marl]

One of BSL/Swiss/Afro investigates BSL/Swiss/Afro. If SK BSL/Swiss/Afro kills outside of BSL/Swiss/Afro, then the Agent BSL/Swiss/Afro gets an SK-cleared BSL/Swiss/Afro and can pinpoint SK BSL/Swiss/Afro. The "clear" BSL/Swiss/Afro would have to be mafia, of course. If SK BSL/Swiss/Afro kills one of BSL/Swiss/Afro, then he kills the FBI BSL/Swiss/Afro OR Mafia BSL/Swiss/Afro. If FBI, then we hit scum BSL/Swiss/Afro no matter who we choose. We then lynch the other of BSL/Swiss/Afro.

Then we lynch Sho.

 

[Swiss]

Re-read.

Put your vote back on X1. You're the only person sure of your own alignment. After the Agent gets a guilty on Afro or an innocent on you will we lynch Afro before X1, or if X1 is the FBI Agent.

Cello. Explain slowly carefully why we are not lynching who we think is indy first.

A mafia lynch (X1/Sho) is great. Maybe Delv. Whatever.

BUT after the SK is dead all town needs is two correct town reads . Qe are not lynching outside of the indy pool.

We're lynching Afro. Investigate myself or Cello.

Cello people are going to want to push against you, you have a rep as being good as indie, likemyself as scum. Everyone here knows you're not scum. If FBI clears you (or Afro is SK) then you are effectively modconfirmed town. This is good.

Think about it. Other than myself, yourself and Afro - who could actually be SK? Delv? Possible but unlikely. We 'know' X1 and Sho are scum.

Lynch Afro. Investigate myself or Cello (Cello is better) (if non-SK flip). If he flips SK we've pretty much won. Lynch X1, Sho, Delv and myself. Leaving Swords and yourself as confirmed town.

If non-sk flip and FBI doesn't claim - Cello is mod confirmed town. So we lynch anyone who could be SK - we can lynch Delv and investigate myself. In the impossible situation SK is still not known we can sort something out. Then lynch the scum.


Cello, if you cannot provide a reason to go against this plan we're doing it. Sure lynching X-scum today is good, but SK is better. We AREgetting rid of the SK.


You down with this plan? It confirms you as town (or SK). So you should be.

Unvote vote Afro

 

[Cello_Marl]

Cello. Explain slowly carefully why we are not lynching who we think is indy first.

Because everyone that isn't you thinks the indy is Swiss/Afro, including me, and every time you try to swing this back to Afro is making me think that it is you.

And why the **** are you declaring yourself as non-FBI Agent at this point? You should know better, after my being chastised for that. If we aren't lynching X1, then we're lynching you. I for one am not going to vote for Afro. I'll go No Lynch first.

 

[Cello_Marl]

Afro, Sworddancer, finish X1 off now. If he were the Agent, he'd have claimed by now. We'll lynch Swiss toMorrow.

 

[Swiss]

Lynch Afro. Investigate me.

Even if I were the FBI - I'd play as if I were not...or out myself.

 

[Swiss]

Cello, you SK?

Why do you think I am being careful of this after my re-read?

 

[Cello_Marl]

Is your worry that BOTH X1 and Afro are town? If it isn't, then you're being ****ing ********.

 

[Swiss]

Clearly not. X1 is scum.

Do you agree that if myself and Nabe both flip/are proved non-SK, then you must be the SK?

 

[Cello_Marl]

Look, if you ARE the FBI Agent, then you're going to investigate me no matter what. You've gotten that bug in what you call your brain. If it ISN'T you, then it is either BSL or Afro. If we lynch Afro, then we're confirming BSL as our Agent and he is DEAD, especially since he falls outside the SK triangle. If Afro is the Agent, then we're forcing him to claim, and while that will still give us an excellent chance at getting the SK toDay, failure means we lose him. Something that I'd like to avoid if possible, but which would only be possible if we have a screen available. Narrowing it down for the SK is something I would like to AVOID, but that you are feebly pushing us toward.

 

[Cello_Marl]

Do you agree that if myself and Nabe both flip/are proved non-SK, then you must be the SK?

No, I do not. Zim/Sworddancer and BSL/Joey are still possible, and one of them would be the SK if you both flipped regular townie AND X1 was flipped mafia. For that to happen though, I or everyone else would have been investigated, so that's not a concern.

And we both know that your ability to read me is flawed.

 

[Swiss]

Yet after lynching scum toDay, and a NK of an obv town - we lose our buffer and are still in exactly the same position of trying to find the SK minus one player. Why not minus that one player now?

We have three suspects for the SK. We can clear two by 2Mo morning. Leaving the third as a lynch target. 100% success rate, right? (Lynch Delv if somehow none of us three are indie)

Or we can lynch a scum toDay. Leaving us with two SK targets 2Mo if our FBI claims, killing him. With just a 50% chance of killing the SK.

Sure, your way is decent, but it gives the SK an advantage.

 

[Swiss]

No, I do not. Zim/Sworddancer and BSL/Joey are still possible, and one of them would be the SK if you both flipped regular townie AND X1 was flipped mafia. For that to happen though, I or everyone else would have been investigated, so that's not a concern.

And we both know that your ability to read me is flawed.

We know Zim/Swords is not SK. It is in no way possible. Joey is unlikely to say the least.

Hence investigating you. Anyway, you'll be VT or FBI. Not dayvigcopdocsuperusefulPR making you play like scum.


See bolded. This IS the most likely situation. We all agree on X1 being scum, so the only question is based upon if I am SK. You are saying that if I am not SK, two players we almost certainly know are not SK must be. Is nothing wrong to you here? It should be.