Cool, so, after toDay’s discussion and last Night’s role flips I have concluded who I want to lynch toDay.
For half of the remaining players, I removed them from my pool via elimination based on D1 behavior. The other two, I looked over pretty deeply trying to discern alignment.
Process of Elimination: Werekill and TewnLeenk
I got on
<π's ass immediately Day 1 due to his RVS Friction (following
Werekill's vote on
---). I was the first vote on him in post #176.
TewnLeenk voted second. Would a newer player be the 2nd person on the wagon to bus a scumbuddy? I really don’t think so.
Werekill voted next, but had also participated in the grilling a lot. If he were scum, would he have have voted
--- and told
<π to react that way? Would he have then grilled
<π and been consistently against him throughout the day? I don’t think so, not with the rest of the game’s roleflips.
Did one of us three bus? 2v7 heavily discourages D1 bussing as a strategy. Also bussing straight out the gate is very different than hopping on a wagon as the 4rd or 5th vote. I think a new player bussing their scumbuddy D1 is highly unlikely, and I think that the way
Werekill drove discussion toward
<π’s lynch on that day also clears him.
So, I am reading both
TewnLeenk and
Werekill as town.
That leaves me with
Rockin and
--- as my potential scumleans/my D3 lynch pool. I took a look at these two. What I did was I went through all of their posts in order and looked for inconsistencies, anything that didn’t add up, when they hopped on/off wagons, and how their votes looked like after roleflips. Something neat that I noticed is that both night kills (
Pythag and
Matunas) were players who had never been voted on. That’s not really uncommon though, scum tends to leave alive players for whom a case to lynch exists.
Regarding
Rockin: Unfortunately, my reasoning here will be a lot less comprehensive than my reasoning for
---, because I didn’t find him to be that scummy during my re-read. I did go completely through his body of work in this thread and I now feel like D2
Rockin's play was simply weird/poor and not scummy. Why would scum call into question the format of the game when absolutely no one was trying to vote for them, when the
Mediocre wagon was progressed so far?
<π did that D1 to no avail. All this did was eventually weaken the
--- wagon significantly really and scum would have little reason to do that unless they planned to point it out later.
Rockin’s weirdness D2 actually made me less interested in the
--- wagon, after additionally being spooked off of the wagon itself because I had accidentally put
--- at L-1 somewhat early in the Day. I don’t find
Werekill’s argument that this behavior is a setup for towncred to be particularly compelling.
I’m willing to believe that
Rockin simply made a clerical error regarding the game setup. Several confirmed townies made errors earlier in the game, so I can’t really fault him for this. If anything, someone being too careful would be a bit concerning, no?
That leads me to my only scumlean of Day 3.
---
Interestingly enough, the only remaining player that WASN'T on the
<π lynch wagon D1 was
--- voting for
Rockin. In and of itself, this isn’t alignment indicative, but it is weird that he never mentioned
<π’s vote count despite posting while he was at L-1.
--- also was on the
Mediocre wagon Day 2 as the second vote, after he himself had reached L-1!
---’s roleclaim stuff is weird, has always been weird, etc. It’s been a sticking point the whole game to me for a variety of reasons and I’d like to see where everyone stands after I go through it with a fine-toothed comb. The roleclaim stuff is actually his very first posts of substance in the thread. I think the roleclaim stuff is at the heart of the issue, and most other things about
--- stem from it. If
--- (or bystanders) are able to convince players that the roleclaim was genuine, most else about
---’s play this game is easy to conclude as towny of not alignment-indicative. The main thing though is that there’s an unshakeable association that
--- and
<π have with each other from the very beginning phases of the game.
At the beginning of the game,
Werekill voted
---.
<π's reaction is what ultimately sealed his fate. Following this reaction to RVS, he never said jack **** about
--- outside of a town read in #153/ #190, until #221 and #243 when he was already at hammer status (this flailing tends to be full of WIFOM, so I won't try to actually read something, but it is notable that there is little mention of
--- throughout the day). What I’d like you to ask yourselves is: do we think
<π would have reacted that way to a vote on a townie?
Let’s take a closer look at the interactions from Day 1. Here’s what my re-read got me.
March 27th
#47 chocolate
#64 strawberry
#110 Vanilla
#130 Votes
Mediocre
-This is just RVS stuff.
March 28th
#144
My weekend is over so I have to work tonight. My activity will be down until tomorrow morning.
More or less for now. I've laid out my clues and don't have much else to say beyond wanting to poke other people into posting, if only to keep the conversation going like everyone else. I can't really say I've noticed a definitive flow to Day 1, beyond past games where Mayors try and prove themselves out of the gate.
Am willing to give a role claim in Night PMs to any interested party, no strings attached.
Was
--- ever truly “active”? He had posted a few times, but with little substance. Worth noting is that prior to this post, no one had said anything regarding posts #47 #64 #110 as being indicative of his role. I’d say it’s possible that
--- brought up his clues and night PMs to force the playerbase to think of a roleclaim on his part.
#161
Making a mistake? I don't know whether to be flattered or nervous (I definitely want feedback from you mafia vets after the game is over, I can tell you all come from more conservative play setups than I am used to).
If you think you have picked up on my clues feel free to state them for others. My only strategy is being blunt.
--- more or less prompts the field of players to search his posts for clues (once again after #144, following most of the players being more concerned about Night PMs talk), and since he’s made like 8 of them with 0 readlists at this point, it’s easy for anyone to find the intended clues. He claims his strategy is to be blunt, but he refuses to elaborate on what role he is claiming until another person does so. (
Werekill in #162).
There’s a pretty big gap here where he’s answering questions that aren’t that important (like what his mafia experience is). He acts very cordially and does not create conflict. While this is going on,
<π’s vote count skyrockets from 1 to 4 between post #176 and #209.
--- had posted in post #181 after only one vote on
<π had dropped (with the mafia experience reply), but other then that does not participate.
Then:
#217
<π - Am willing to brush aside the brag as I'm also re-learning the game in some aspects, but I'd like to hear more beyond SB/Rockin.
Rockin - Besides the post asking SB/WK to tone it down, your aggressiveness strikes me in a different way than SB/WK. I'm curious as to what you have to say in regards to Pythag's read on you if you've played together before. Role claiming I feel is important and dismissing it, unlike SB/WK, I have to question.
TewnLeenk - Your posts are the most brief. You're new but I'd like to see your further thoughts.
Werekill - You're active and I feel you've given the most thought in terms of your reads as the phase has progressed.
Mediocre - Very null, but thank you for replying in depth. I'd like to see you post more. Unvote
Strong Bad - Active and adamant. I think you're the alpha player right now. I remember towns being led to their doom before, but for the moment it's hard to disagree with your current dedication on Day 1. That said, though you have the right idea, I think you need to re-read my clues slightly.
Pythag - I'm not sure if targeting active players is a good strategy, at least Day One. Could you explain you're read on TewnLeenk more?
Matunas - I agree with your recent analysis thus far, but I don't have enough to swing me either way.
<π/Rockin I'm getting the largest scum vibes from. TewnLeenk slightly, but I'm willing to chalk some of that to inexperience.
This is
---’s first scumlean list. This is after
<π’s at hammer range, but he asks
<π for more reads.
---’s list is mostly nulls with scumleans on
<π and
Rockin and a very slight lean on
TewnLeenk. He also “corrects” my read of his breadcrumb in #162. This correction is performed after it’s clear that
<π is getting lynched, he had been at L-1 since #209. Why didn’t he do this in post #164 or #181? And in none of these 3 posts does he comment on the status of
<π’s vote count.
In this post, he also refers to
<π’s Mafia win brag that happened earlier in the game (#74), which hadn’t been referred to in quite a while. It seems odd to me to bring it up over 100 posts later.
For his next post, we need
<π’s post #221 since
--- directly replied to it.
trihy (good nick) could be making a fake claim... but just given how early it was revealed... I dont know. Feels like a pretty bad play to me regardless of alignment.
---
why would you announce a role day 1?
Noteworthy is that
<π is at L-1 here when he does this, pretty soon after #217.
Besides reads, I feel I would be of better service to the town in being as upfront as possible. Am not really making a gamble in my mind, though I can see the thought process behind much of what has been said and do not fault anyone for thinking that way.
Getting leads for the town to follow on Day One is important, arguably more so than gut feelings IMO.
“I would be of better service to town in being as upfront as possible”
If
--- finds himself most useful by being “as upfront as possible,” why not directly claim vanilla townie then?
It’s possible that this is a bit of a disconnected setup for scumbuddies since at this point it’s really clear that
<π is going to be lynched.
<π can ask questions to the field or to
---, allowing him reign to discuss what he wants to prior to the day coming to a close. Between #217, #221, #228, this isn’t too farfetched.
DAY 2
Following pressure from
Matunas,
--- Claims Vanilla Townie in #279:
Vanilla townie as Werekill guessed first, and SB after I pushed him to correct his original assumption. I wasn't sure about being too blunt on Day One out of the gate, but I also didn't want to contribute nothing either.
Why repeatedly mention being upfront and blunt D1, be vague when it actually comes to your role D1, then immediately roleclaim Vanilla at the start of Day 2? After Town Tracker/Mafia Rolecop are revealed, it’s known that Neapolitan is not a possible role, allowing a pivot to Vanilla Townie. In either case, “vanilla townie” is a safe claim for scum to make because there are 5. At the point where
--- actually prodded the player group toward “vanilla townie,” it was when
<π was obviously being lynched (as reasoned above)
His response to my post
#316 in post #358 was not satisfactory to me, either.
I think you were word-smithing a bit too hard. Primarily in regards to the context. two are them are in response to negative pressure while the other states something affirmative in regards to positive pressure. Of the three, only one of the statements is in regards to the perception of myself.
--- drops breadcrumbs on his roleclaim and tells people to check his clues. Then he gets into arguments over the correct interpretation of his clues. In conjunction with the repeated statements about being blunt and upfront, this feels really wrong to me. Why would you even mention chocolate and strawberry in the first place if you always wanted to claim Vanilla townie? Which of us is truly wordsmithing here? I still don’t believe your logic as to why you weren’t claiming Neapolitan, the “chocolate” phrasing is indeed about you here, contrary to your reasoning. I can’t resolve this behavior with anything other than your being scum.
Matunas is my other scum lean. They've been fairly opportunistic throughout the entire game thus far such as changing their votes back and forth between
TewnLeenk &
Rockin Day 1. They were the last one to vote for
<π and the first to jump onto voting for me. Their post
#206 also strikes me as leaving a door open for
<π to try and defend himself and downplaying potentially being the hammer vote. They were also apart of both
<π's town leanings along with
Pythag & myself on
#153 &
#190. Their recent statement regarding
Pythag's death as random but also that
Mediocre might have planned to associate themselves with their NK strikes me as weird.
#254 What does A1 mean? If I was allied with
<π why would they insist on these claims if they theoretically knew in advance I was changing my breadcrumb role claim on the fly due to Night PMs? I had already pushed for SB to re-read my breadcrumbs on
#217. Though in general, the last few posts on Day 1 are somewhat non sequiturs I'm not sure I'm correctly picking up on at my current experience level.
Why did you scumlean
Matunas for participating in RVS...? Several others did that Day 1 around that time. You voted
Mediocre only 3 posts before he voted for
Rockin. Your wording is “opportunistic,” even, it’s similar to how
<π reacted to myself and
Werekill. This is off to me.
In addition, why reply to
<π’s flailing? This is just invalid WIFOM about
<π’s scum motives when he has little reason to grant Town anything useful while at L-1 and isn’t in a position to hurt Town significantly. Your links to
<π posts don't really conclude anything either. They're riddled with caveats which reads as trying to not push an agenda while still bringing it up in case someone latches on. What's up with that?
In #401
--- sets himself up as a player who has a scumread on both
Mediocre and
Matunas. Since the
Mediocre wagon had already begun via
Werekill, voting
Matunas wouldn’t have accomplished much.
DAY 3
In both #427 and #429 following
Mediocre/
Matunas flipping town, he is quick to reference his proposed 50/50 in #401.
I think there might have been less potential RNG involved with Matunas's death given my final 50/50 push in my last Day 2 post.
Why bring up your own post as a reason for our Town Cop being targeted...?
There's an argument to be made for why you'd set up Matunas as your scumlean then night kill him. More or less, uncertainty and null reads have been the name of the game for you. No one can claim that you're setting up subsequent lynches after the townie role flip if you do it like this and wait around for a target to surface from the more active players like myself and Werekill.
Some WIFOM to this, but given all the other context I think you’re playing a very cordial, non-confrontational, and “cautious” game while you allow the game state to progress to a point where other players become lynch targets. You’ve been careful to bring up seemingly normal things about other players who aren’t on the chopping block as if they are questionable, without enough conviction for people to call you out on it but with enough for people to think that way. Provided you’re scum, you’re also careful to do this with players you plan to night kill, making yourself “wrong” when you never communicated that you were sure to begin.
So, there’s where I stand. I strongly believe
--- is the remaining scum player. If he flips town, I think
Rockin is the endgame lynch pick here, but I’ll be super surprised if
--- flips town.
I hope my deduction and reasoning was compelling to you all. I’d love to hear what you think and what
--- has to say in response. Thanks for reading my rather lengthy post!