I don't care whether or not Toad is playable from the beginning or if he is unlockable. As long as he is playable!
I agree! I suspect that he would be unlockable, seeing as Mario, Bowser, and Peach will all be default. Luigi will probably be secret again, and since Doc won't return, that leaves a Mario slot open for our favorite mushroom!
Here's my official moveset. I might change it later, but here you go:
Toad
Height: *
Weight: **
Attack Power: ****
Grab Range: **
Running Speed: *****
Jump: *
Falling Speed: ***
Basic Attacks:
A: Double Kick
Toad nearly topples backward by using a high kick. Pressing twice results in a double kick with powerful knockback, but Toad falls on his back in the process.
F-tilt: Flail
Toad flops forward, driving his mushroom head into the opponent. Good damage and knockback.
U-tilt: Defense Mechanism
Toad crouches down and releases spores above him, much like he does when defending Peach in SSBM. While the move doesn't pack much power or knockback, the move does have high priority.
D-tilt: Sweep Kick
Toad flattens out and performs a sweep kick. Damage is average and knockback is low, but the opponent is stunned.
Dash Attack: Last Resort
Toad runs forward frantically, flailing his arms about like Luigi. Knockback is low, but the damage can rack up with consecutive hits.
Smash Attacks:
FSmash: Game-Set-SMASH
Toad pulls out his rainbow racquet from Mario Tennis 64 and delivers a powerful slice, creating a flurry of bubbles and sending the opponent backward. The longer the Smash is charged, the higher the damage and the further the knockback.
USmash: Star Hammer
Toad pulls out his hammer from Mario Party 3 and swings it in an arc over his head. Low knockback but good damage.
DSmash: Victory Dance
Toad busts out his breakdancing skillz by spinning around on his head; think his post-goal dance from Mario Strikers Charged, or just Sheik's DSmash. The damage is good, but the move truly shines if the opponent is just above Toad at the time of execution. In such a case, the opponent is sucked down into a vortex-of-sorts and struck multiple times for exceptional damage.
Aerials:
Nair: Aerial Flail
Toad extends every limb in his body with a burst of energy, looking as if he were parachuting sans parachute. This flailing movement has two hitboxes: one at Toad's feet and another at his head and fists.
Fair: Fire Meteor
Toad emulates his Skillshot from Mario Strikers Charged, Fire Meteor. He kicks the opponent, setting him or her ablaze, and sending him or her off as a fireball at a very slight downward slope with good damage.
Bair: Clobber
Toad once again whips out his star hammer and sticks it straight out behind him, twirling it briefly. The move has good knockback if it connects with the opponent as it is being shoved outward; otherwise, hammer lingers for a moment, doing less damage and offering little knockback.
Uair: Star Wave
Toad pulls a star out of his pocket and raises it high above his head--or as high as his little arms can reach. This move has low knockback but fairly high priority and a minor electric shock effect.
Dair: Head Drill
Toad dives headfirst for the ground in a drill attack. Can deliver a few consecutive hits for low damage.
Special Moves:
B : Star Toss
Toad pulls a star out of his pocket (à la Mario Party and SM64) and lobs it. A simple tap launches a star with a high, skinny arc that ends close to Toad. The longer the move is charged, the flatter the arc and the further the star will travel.
Side B: Mushroom Kart
Much like Wario, Toad can pull his own vehicle out of thin air and put it to good use. Toad can turn around with a flick of the control stick. By pressing B, Toad uses a Golden Mushroom for a huge burst of speed. The boost can be utilized more than once, but a small pause occurs between each use, preventing uber-boosts. When Toad is hit, he is ejected from the kart, and the kart slows to a halt. Only one kart can appear onstage at the same time.
Down B: Pluck
Toad takes a page from Peach's book and picks an item from the ground; however, he performs the task with almost no lag, unlike the Princess. Toad's turnips are relatively strong, but the "Sad Turnip" does not appear, nor do the Bob-ombs, Mr. Saturns, or Beam Swords. Instead, Toad can randomly pick other SMB2 vegetables (pumpkins and radishes). Likewise, Toad can also randomly pluck a few other items from the ground: Bombs (from Wario's Woods), Hearts (SMB2 ones, which restore a middling amount of health, but nothing substantial), Mushrooms, Starman, Koopa Shells, and POW Blocks. The most elusive of items, however, is the Magic Potion, which allows Toad to enter a door into Subcon and move freely about the background of the stage invisibly for a few seconds. Toad can neither give nor receive damage, but his movement is unhindered while in Subcon. A few seconds later, he will reenter through another door where his hidden movement came to an end. To compensate for the huge benefits that this move could bestow upon our favorite mushroom, Toad occasionally will dig straight into the ground for a moment, leaving him open to attack.
Up B: Super Jump
Once again, Toad recalls a special ability from SMB2. He charges up briefly, glowing, and then leaps skyward with a burst of power. The vertical leap's horizontal movement can be controlled slightly. By charging even longer, Toad begins to flash and the move's height increases substantially.
Final Smash: Party Time!
Toad's Final Smash is an homage to his work as host for so many of Mario's "exclusive" parties. Everything comes to a halt with a spotlight on our beloved retainer. Toad pulls a dice block out of his pocket and--no, wait, two--no, three! The player selects which dice block will correspond to which opponent; an opponent can also fall victim to more than one block. Toad then hits the dice block, and confetti bursts across the screen with each hit. The following comprise the effects that correspond to each randomly-selected number:
1 - Dice Block. It drops down from above the opponent's head for small damage.
2 - Poison Mushroom. The opponent takes periodic damage for a few moments until the effect wears off.
3 - Fire Flower. The opponent is blasted with flames, racking up small but continuous damage.
4 - Tanooki Suit. The suit falls onto the opponent and he or she is instantly transformed into the Tanooki statue. He or she is frozen for a few moments.
5 - Lightning, the bane of Mario Karters everywhere. Strikes the opponent for noticeable damage. He or she is also stunned temporarily from the electric shock when play resumes.
6 - Chain Chomp. This crazy creature drops from the sky and sinks its teeth into the opponent. Strong damage.
7 - Bullet Bill. The notorious projectile veers down from the sky, swirling around the opponent before finally making explosive contact, causing substantial damage and knockback.
8 - Dizzy Dial. The opponent's control scheme is completely rearranged (ex: A -> Down, Up -> B) for a few moments.
9 - Toad Stampede. Many denizens of Toad Town and a collection of other assorted Toads crash the stage and trample all opponents for heavy damage.
10 - Bazooka! Toad pulls out his infamous weapon from SMRPG and blasts the opponent into the stratosphere. Instant KO, but quite rare.
Grabs:
Toad jumps and grabs onto the opponent's chest--or at their face, etc. The idea is that Toad latches onto the opponent.
Jab: Noggin Bash
Toad smacks the opponent with his sizable noggin.
Fthrow: Rolling Toss
Toad tips the opponent over, rolls forward, and tosses him or her forward.
Uthrow: Juggle
Toad falls backward, taking the opponent with him. In the process, he pops him or her up into the air with his fists. This is Toad's only weak throw, but the small knockback is useful for juggling.
Dthrow: Frenzy Stampede
Toad pushes the opponent over and stomps on them a few times in a frenzy, each successive stomp becoming more powerful.
Bthrow: Bicycle Kick
Toad falls backward, taking the opponent with him. He then kicks him or her backward.
Taunt:
Toad giggles and holds up the V for Victory. "Yeah!"
Winning Poses:
Winning pose #1:
Toad runs around screaming in a frenzy, frantic and frightened. He trips and appears shocked. After a moment, he realizes that he is all right and smiles at the camera. "*giggle*"
Winning pose#2:
Toad speeds into sight on his Mushroom Kart after a burst of glowing speed from the Golden Mushroom. "I'm the best!"
Winning pose#3:
Toad holds up a star and basks in its radiant aura. "Ooooh..."