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Tier List Speculation

KakuCP9

What does it mean to be strong?
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@ steelguttey steelguttey

I guess at this point it's best to agree to disagree. You consider unwinnable by being literally impossible to win while I consider it as a point where the difference in power is so heavily skewed, its just not realistic to expect someone to play much higher level that the opponent to take a set.
 

Thane of Blue Flames

Fire is catching.
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On Jiggs.

Here's HBox's kill list:

- Sethlon in 3.5 [Roy's recovery and weight/fallspeed ... okay, this is doable]
- Professor Pro [Uh ... I would have said Snake owned this MU before I saw the video]
- Oracle in 3.5 [Y'know, *before* R.o.B nerfs]
- Jason Waterfalls [ZSS doesn't have good vertical kill moves, DSmash shouldn't connect often outside of rest punishes because Jiggs is rarely grounded, which leaves a semi-competent aerial combo game that ZSS has due to mobility, but she can't really close stock. Call this MU Jiggs'.]
- iPunchKidz [I would have had no idea how this MU is supposed to go before I saw the match]

Point is, we might want to revise how bad Jiggs really is in this game. She seems to have rest set-ups on more characters/weight-fallspeed-size classes than you'd expect and can edgeguard the whole cast, finally. I'm also pretty sure she beats Lucas, Diddy, Falcon and at least goes even with Wolf, which is a lot of fairly relevant/high tier characters.
 

steelguttey

mei is bei
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it was also an exhibition match. which means it didn't matter.

also, boiko has wins off cactuar in melee? are you sure about that?

wobbles has called peach vs. ICs even if wobbling is allowed

and I don't think any puff has called the Fox MU unwinnable mainly because of rest. other characters don't have such an absurd punish when they would be similarly losing the neutral just as bad
oh **** were talking about melee LMAO im stupid then my b

source on that wobbles bit?

punish game is not only a very small part of the matchup to consider but also completely volatile in smash because theres almost always a way to continue a punish so it at least continues as a favorable neutral position
 

TheGravyTrain

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Part of the problem with this discussion is what 60-40 is to one person is different to another. That's why in Life's sig you see Daftatt rage at mu numbers. People put way too much weight in them as if they are fact cuz z person said so. I think they have a use, but people need to recognize the limitations.
 

AuraMaudeGone

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On Jiggs.

Here's HBox's kill list:

- Sethlon in 3.5 [Roy's recovery and weight/fallspeed ... okay, this is doable]
- Professor Pro [Uh ... I would have said Snake owned this MU before I saw the video]
- Oracle in 3.5 [Y'know, *before* R.o.B nerfs]
- Jason Waterfalls [ZSS doesn't have good vertical kill moves, DSmash shouldn't connect often outside of rest punishes because Jiggs is rarely grounded, which leaves a semi-competent aerial combo game that ZSS has due to mobility, but she can't really close stock. Call this MU Jiggs'.]
- iPunchKidz [I would have had no idea how this MU is supposed to go before I saw the match]

Point is, we might want to revise how bad Jiggs really is in this game. She seems to have rest set-ups on more characters/weight-fallspeed-size classes than you'd expect and can edgeguard the whole cast, finally. I'm also pretty sure she beats Lucas, Diddy, Falcon and at least goes even with Wolf, which is a lot of fairly relevant/high tier characters.
Preaching to the choir?
 

Tomaster

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I really wish that instead of nerfing the good characters every patch they would buff the weak ones instead. Almost everyone I talked to about 3.02 agree that it was really fun having strong characters. It would probably take a lot of work to balance the weak characters without making them dumb to play against, but If pmdt can do it I think it'll make the game even more enjoyable than it is now.
 

JesteRace

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Didn't Link players discover other bomb jump setups that don't involve upB?
You can agt down and throw the bomb down and dair to break bomb. It's a hail mary attempt and super arbitrary and makes no sense and obviously wasn't intended. It should either be easier(like maybe just z drop dair) or the 3.02 method should work, just not as effectively. Making upb stale after only one single on-stage use is stupid considering it's one of his only two decent OOS options
 

PlateProp

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@Umbreon That doesn't solve your presented problem at all. You just packaged it differently :o
Bad MU are going to exist, unless everyone's playing the exact same character. You're also not stuck to one character either. You're free counter pick too. Why is this spoken like people are spiritually bound to one character?
Because he's spiritually bound to shiek

One of the endgoals of pm is to have everyone balanced as possible so that it's not ever necessary to CP
 

DMG

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Falcon vs Jiggs is probably evenish in PM, Falcon can actually do something about crouching Jiggs in this game so it's not as silly.
 

Scuba Steve

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I really wish that instead of nerfing the good characters every patch they would buff the weak ones instead. Almost everyone I talked to about 3.02 agree that it was really fun having strong characters. It would probably take a lot of work to balance the weak characters without making them dumb to play against, but If pmdt can do it I think it'll make the game even more enjoyable than it is now.
Of course the dude who has Diddy, Mewtwo, Pit, and Mario in his sig would want the game to be more like 3.0 again lol
 

GP&B

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We are not getting 3.02 back. It was a stupid game. It's fun at a low level of play but becomes incredibly polarizing and uninspired at high level play.
 

SunJester

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There's 41 characters in this game. Your character is going to have bad matchups.

We can remove everything remotely unique in this game and make it really boring, or we can all learn a secondary and cover our main's bad matchups. Armada had to learn Fox/Young Link to cover Peach's bad Puff matchup. Thats in a game with 10~ characters, could you imagine what 41 could do?
 

DrinkingFood

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There's 41 characters in this game. Your character is going to have bad matchups.

We can remove everything remotely unique in this game and make it really boring, or we can all learn a secondary and cover our main's bad matchups. Armada had to learn Fox/Young Link to cover Peach's bad Puff matchup. Thats in a game with 10~ characters, could you imagine what 41 could do?
this is a false dilemna, there are certainly middle grounds where we don't have to remove everything unique in the game and can still help normalize matchups drastically lol. Nobody's expecting 50:50s across the board and nobody is saying we make every character the same flavor of [character archetypes] in order to do that, but giving characters better inherent stats that universally help them solve problems is much much better than having most characters rely on a single tool that hard counters some things and hard loses to others.
Armada didn't learn fox/Yink to cover peach's bad matchup. He learned fox because fox HAS no bad matchups. How often do you even see him using peach anymore? You know what's infinitely better than learning two characters and trading game for game against an opponent who also has two characters in a counterpick war each game? Learning one character that goes even with or beats both; that way you don't even have to drop a game, and you can focus more on one better character than less on two worse ones. Doesn't even necessarily have to be fox in PM, he's the easiest example, but basically PM will evolve into a melee-esque meta where the top players just play all characters that have 50:50s with each other and better against most of the rest of the cast, and anybody trying to rely on multiple characters is still going to drop every other game at least when they get counterpicked, and they are splitting focus.
 
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JesteRace

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Lol people love bringing up Armada as a prime example of counterpicking. Nah, dude. Young Link barely improved his record against Hungrybox if at all. He's been beating him consistently with Fox, yes. But Fox is his main now, not his CP lol

With that being said, I love CP wars and dual-maining. Buuuuut I'm not a top player lol
 

Jacob29

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This all reminds me...


Did ROB really need his old side-b back?

I remember watching pooch play vs a ROB and it looked like the most painful thing I had ever seen for Samus.


Also DK isn't the worst character in the game FOR SURE.

I already rate him above Bowser easily.
 

Boiko

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also, boiko has wins off cactuar in melee? are you sure about that?
If I played Ness in melee, I'd kill myself.

How exactly would you change D3 to help his match up with Ivysaur without directly skewing the rest of his match ups? What about Diddy? Is giving him buffs to help with these characters going to enhance his overall match up spread? Asking because I'm genuinely curious.
 
D

Deleted member

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@Umbreon That doesn't solve your presented problem at all. You just packaged it differently :o
Bad MU are going to exist, unless everyone's playing the exact same character. You're also not stuck to one character either. You're free counter pick too. Why is this spoken like people are spiritually bound to one character?
ok so the problem isnt that the game has bad matchups, even if we could remove them entirely im not sure we would want to. the problem is that they are overly-influencing our results such that being a top level player means being forced to play characters you dont want to, or switching to characters with few/no bad matchups like fox metaknight diddy etc. this is harmful to the player base because its stressful and unenjoyable to actually play. and before the ad hominems start, i play ****ing sheik- i GIVE way more bad matchups to other people than have my own to deal with. ideally we want a system where you can be the best player in the room and not get luck-sacked by the bracket into getting like 17th. no tournament structure will entirely eliminate matchup bias, it just shouldnt destroy people either. people dont want to travel 1500 miles to a national to go 0-2 in bracket because they got two bad matchups in a game where avoiding them is impossible. otherwise youre just going to get people that are godly at their characters but refuse to switch like me odds sethlon getting like 33rd. or people will not go. or people will go but then not enter singles. what we're doing now just doesnt work like we want it to.
 
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Life

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Part of the problem with this discussion is what 60-40 is to one person is different to another. That's why in Life's sig you see Daftatt rage at mu numbers. People put way too much weight in them as if they are fact cuz z person said so. I think they have a use, but people need to recognize the limitations.
Nobody has the data to say X character should beat Y character Z% of the time, nor is there a good way to collect such data since many matchups are rarely played and even the best players of a given character don't know every matchup yet. That's the root of the problem.
 

Rawkobo

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ok so the problem isnt that the game has bad matchups, even if we could remove them entirely im not sure we would want to. the problem is that they are overly-influencing our results such that being a top level player means being forced to play characters you dont want to, or switching to characters with few/no bad matchups like fox metaknight diddy etc. this is harmful to the player base because its stressful and unenjoyable to actually play. and before the ad hominems start, i play ****ing sheik- i GIVE way more bad matchups to other people than have my own to deal with. ideally we want a system where you can be the best player in the room and not get luck-sacked by the bracket into getting like 17th. no tournament structure will entirely eliminate matchup bias, it just shouldnt destroy people either. people dont want to travel 1500 miles to a national to go 0-2 in bracket because they got two bad matchups in a game where avoiding them is impossible. otherwise youre just going to get people that are godly at their characters but refuse to switch like me odds sethlon getting like 33rd. or people will not go. or people will go but then not enter singles. what we're doing now just doesnt work like we want it to.

Just so I'm clear on what you're saying, you're not proposing a variation of top player privilege, right? This is more of like a Swiss-style thing.
 

Narelex

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From what I gathered he wants more of a round robin or swiss type thing. Odds is a good example of this occurring he had to fight some of Bowsers worst MU's in the game and didn't even really get a chance to compete just because of who he was put up against.

Another example is Hungrybox and Frozen. Hungry box might be amazing but that is one of Jiggs worst MU's in the game and would have likely been a loss for HB. He was lucky enough to get a bracket free of hard counters to Jiggs.

Having to fight against more then a select few MU's is a much better way to determine a large-scale tournament in PM. Hero of Time probably would have had one of the best shots at fighting Mr Lz since they're from the same region. (Lz did say he had a secondary since the last time they fought where HoT won convincingly)

What he seems to be driving at is especially for the more polarized characters its almost luck who you end up vs and whether that takes you out of the tourney.

So Umbreon literally just wants it to be more fair to the players and I can respect that.
 

DMG

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@Umbreon

You could do Round Robin once you reach a certain cap of players, but it may be a massive undertaking trying to do say a top 32 RR bracket. However take your statement about 33rd: those players may get "janked" earlier before this Round Robin anyways so you'd have to start a new format other than bracket for some group of players extending below just top 32, otherwise you're just arbitrarily "saving" top x from MU jank and not extending it to more players (if we still keep bracket as a format somewhere in the tourney)


I guess you could have larger tournaments be 0% bracket, and pools + final RR only? Pools give you a much bigger opportunity to deal with 1-2 bad MU's and still progress further in tourney, however they also still give you the chance of bad MU stacking (unless you want to start taking down character info from players entering and try to use that to also avoid character MU imbalances?). I mean technically, it's possible for a player's pool to be literally stuffed with bad MU's AND you're only playing the people in your pool.


It's still possible for someone really strong to fail to make it out of pools somewhere in the process (assuming multiple pool rounds) because of MU skews that apparently ruin the current bracket format. If say Sethlon or someone better than me, ended up losing in pools because of MU skews, this isn't really any different or better than me getting a placing or two higher just cause my top 64 bracket wasn't super counters left and right. A better player than I would end up placing lower in both scenarios, and both scenarios still have a lack of "Everyone played enough people to rank their skill against each other"


In both scenarios, the really strong player may lose AND he may not end up playing a large enough variety of other top players to consider the results accurate. I could dodge Sethlon in pools AND simultaneously I could be one of the players who keeps someone down cause "goddamn my character sucks vs CF and my pool is half CF". The impact of this is surely greater in Bracket, I do not contest that. Just saying that similar situations that we would want to avoid if we're trying to accurately measure people, can still pop up in pools or RR if we're not having 100% of the player size play each other.


I get the point of wanting a better format, I'm just not sure there's a clean way to improve. Massive Pools and Round Robin sizes, to more accurately assess the skill of strong players, may be a nightmare logistically if you want to go beyond 16. I support making a top cutoff be Round Robin (example: top 16 players all play each other and possibly all guaranteed in the money), I just don't know if we can truly find a great balance below that threshold. We probably can't make entire tournaments Round Robin, but the further away you get from "Everyone plays everyone", the more likely it becomes that your results end up less accurate than they could have been.


If you have a specific idea (haven't read all posts or thoughts on the matter), I'd like to hear it cause I can see the DFW burnout that's been going on for lord knows how long and for other players. I wouldn't mind reversing that if possible, just not confident that we have a great solution to it aside from doing RR for the last players involved and even this doesn't address player situations below the cutoff
 
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tasteless gentleman

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From what I gathered he wants more of a round robin or swiss type thing. Odds is a good example of this occurring he had to fight some of Bowsers worst MU's in the game and didn't even really get a chance to compete just because of who he was put up against.

Another example is Hungrybox and Frozen. Hungry box might be amazing but that is one of Jiggs worst MU's in the game and would have likely been a loss for HB. He was lucky enough to get a bracket free of hard counters to Jiggs.

Having to fight against more then a select few MU's is a much better way to determine a large-scale tournament in PM. Hero of Time probably would have had one of the best shots at fighting Mr Lz since they're from the same region. (Lz did say he had a secondary since the last time they fought where HoT won convincingly)

What he seems to be driving at is especially for the more polarized characters its almost luck who you end up vs and whether that takes you out of the tourney.

So Umbreon literally just wants it to be more fair to the players and I can respect that.
Watching this was literally why i picked up three s tier characters just to cover my bowsers slack MU chart, do i want all 50-50 MU spread...no.

Do i want some winning match ups for bowser ... yes...

Do i think 30-70 MUs are reasonable... not really

It gets frustrating when i have to play at a way higher level with bowser or Cheese MU knowledge to win matches when i can switch to a DAY 1 diddy and do better.
 
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Tomaster

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Of course the dude who has Diddy, Mewtwo, Pit, and Mario in his sig would want the game to be more like 3.0 again lol
I didn't even play them in 3.02 because I hated how op they were... So that's not what I meant. I don't want 3.02 back. I just think the game should be balanced to sheik/MK level, not lower.
 
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Narelex

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Watching this was literally why i picked up three s tier characters just to cover my bowsers slack MU chart, do i want all 50-50 MU spread...no.

Do i want some winning match ups for bowser ... yes...

Do i think 30-70 MUs are reasonable... not really

It gets frustrating when i have to play at a way higher level with bowser or Cheese MU knowledge to win matches when i can switch to a DAY 1 diddy and do better.
I'd recommend not picking up 3 characters if you want to be successful. At most you want to dual main but that takes a huge amount of time and dedication.

Sticking to 1 character is better for developing core skills but as we're finding out once you reach the top the ability to play multiple or one with a good spread seems to be important.

I didn't even play them in 3.02 because I hated how op they were... So that's not what I meant. I don't want 3.02 back. I just think the game should be balanced to sheik/MK level, not lower.
Basically you want everyone to feel strong and have good traits. It's why I personally feel we could stand to clean up quite a few characters wavelands for one thing InfinityCollison pointed out on his PWL thread that Pit has a super clunky waveland and perfect waveland.

I wouldn't mind a few of the lower characters getting a few buffs in the core stats department. slightly better runspeed, Improved air mobility or w/e the character needs. If there's one thing we can't deny its that Fox, Marth Falcon all feel extremely good to move around as. I wish more characters were like that.

Hell my main can't even perfect waveland at all.
 
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D

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my initial idea was doing pools of 8 where top 2 get out over and over until the top 8 is just a RR, but SB pointed out to me that you can lose only one set and get knocked out from tie breakers. i havent thought of a better solution yet. but yes i basically want top 8 to be RR solidly, and have a respectable way of getting there.
 

Tomaster

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If there's one thing we can't deny its that Fox, Marth Falcon all feel extremely good to move around as. I wish more characters were like that.
That's Exactly what bothers me the most about mewtwo.. His movement is uncomfortable and that holds me back a lot. I think that's also why a lot of people like to stick with the melee characters... They often feel better to move as.
 
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Binary Clone

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If there's one thing we can't deny its that Fox, Marth Falcon all feel extremely good to move around as. I wish more characters were like that.
That's Exactly what bothers me the most about mewtwo.. His movement is uncomfortable and that holds me back a lot. I think that's also why a lot of people like to stick with the melee characters... They often feel better to move as.[/quote]
Well, that's mostly because having really good movement is, in both Melee and in Smash in general, a huge, huge part of being a good character.

Project M has compensated for that by giving a wider range of tools to characters with fewer high-quality movement options, but it's still obvious that the slower characters like Ganon and Bowser suffer because of those limitations. Because Fox, Marth, and Falcon had good movement, they've retained that, and that's why they feel good to move as, and are also still high-tier. Metaknight and Roy also feel really good on the ground, because they are similarly fast, with good dashes and wavedashes.

On the other hand, characters that were in the Melee top tiers that were exceptions to the "good movement" rule have been at least perceived to have suffered in the transition, like Jigglypuff.
 

Spralwers

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If we want to have a more "fair" format for tournies, which ultimately means more matches, then we'll have to really address time constraints. For enough majors, it's already unfeasible to even do RR pools. We'd have to start having PM only tournies, or at worst, PM + one other smash game tournies. I personally don't like these majors that have all the smash games. I understand the convenience, but you miss out on fun things like doubles, crew battles, and character-specific round robins. You also risk having a less fair and accurate tournament because you have to do bracket pools, and seeding in PM is a god awful undertaking.

That's why Blacklisted existed, I wanted to try running a PM-only major. Because there wasn't another smash game to compete for time with, we were able to go through 22 pools of 6-7 players per pool and make it to top 16 from a top 66 bracket (top 3 made it out of pools), from roughly 11am to 8pm. If we had the space and set ups to accommodate 22 pools instead of 11, we could've made it to top 16 by 4:30pm.

PM has a big enough playerbase I think that we can start shooting for PM-only majors, and then we can really start addressing the issue of "bracket luck." And then we can start using tournament results more reliably for tier list speculation. But if we're to keep the format where all majors have multiple smash games while addressing bracket luck, then we'd have to start seeding players not just by their skill and region, but the characters they use to get their results. Idk how well that'd work out.
 

DMG

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my initial idea was doing pools of 8 where top 2 get out over and over until the top 8 is just a RR, but SB pointed out to me that you can lose only one set and get knocked out from tie breakers. i havent thought of a better solution yet. but yes i basically want top 8 to be RR solidly, and have a respectable way of getting there.
Doing RR for the top cutoff seems fine. I just don't think there's a way to avoid some of what you're talking about with any tournament format for the players below say that 8 cutoff. Pools can still be luck based for who and what you come across, although this will increase the number of top vs top matches between the players (if you make it to top 32, bracket format you can lose 0-2 or even just win 4-5 times, while pools you would have 7 other people in that pool to match up against no matter how terrible your record ends up during the process + have to play the people that advance out of pools to 8 man RR if you get out)


Doing that may be a decent proposal. This might also make recording top 32 matches easier if you can assign recording setups to pools near the end. Kind of a shame there aren't more recording setups, can't count the number of good matches that didn't get recorded.
 
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Ripple

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If I played Ness in melee, I'd kill myself.

How exactly would you change D3 to help his match up with Ivysaur without directly skewing the rest of his match ups? What about Diddy? Is giving him buffs to help with these characters going to enhance his overall match up spread? Asking because I'm genuinely curious.
Ivy is a lost cause, no buffs would allow me to win the MU unless I actually got the transcendent f-tilt. which, lets be real, is never going to happen.

Diddy is EASILY fixable for most characters and I've told dev team members about this before. all Slow/fat characters (and some others) have **** tier item play, they have trouble picking up items in the first place and even when they do pick them up, their throws are so bad and slow, diddy players can just react to the banana. It also doesn't help that diddy can just Dash attack over bananas and not trip, which means if they see a fatty go up to a banana, they can just wait outside of the opponents range and just react to anything. Fatties have to throw moves through bananas as counter play because them getting a banana is even more of a disadvantage.
 

Searing_Sorrow

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Ivy is a lost cause, no buffs would allow me to win the MU unless I actually got the transcendent f-tilt. which, lets be real, is never going to happen.

Diddy is EASILY fixable for most characters and I've told dev team members about this before. all Slow/fat characters (and some others) have **** tier item play, they have trouble picking up items in the first place and even when they do pick them up, their throws are so bad and slow, diddy players can just react to the banana. It also doesn't help that diddy can just Dash attack over bananas and not trip, which means if they see a fatty go up to a banana, they can just wait outside of the opponents range and just react to anything. Fatties have to throw moves through bananas as counter play because them getting a banana is even more of a disadvantage.
Agree with the banana play comment, the problem is that the item throw of most of the large characters is really really bad. The best counter play they have is to throw the item straight up into the air, and use that time period to create a wall to force diddy to the edge of the stage. Characters made like dk and Charizard have an easier time doing this than say ddd that has mobility in burst movement only when waddles are set.

Even though diddy's lack of kill power and vertical finishers makes the matchups a bit more balanced than blah blah up air blah blah up smash, giving the large characters a better item game seems like the best solution to making the matchup more interactive, without skewing other matchups.
 

Ripple

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item throws frame data was "homoginized" in 3.5

taken from the changelog



and this doesn't even cover how well a characters ability is to even pick up items
 
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Narelex

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That's Exactly what bothers me the most about mewtwo.. His movement is uncomfortable and that holds me back a lot. I think that's also why a lot of people like to stick with the melee characters... They often feel better to move as.
Well, that's mostly because having really good movement is, in both Melee and in Smash in general, a huge, huge part of being a good character.

Project M has compensated for that by giving a wider range of tools to characters with fewer high-quality movement options, but it's still obvious that the slower characters like Ganon and Bowser suffer because of those limitations. Because Fox, Marth, and Falcon had good movement, they've retained that, and that's why they feel good to move as, and are also still high-tier. Metaknight and Roy also feel really good on the ground, because they are similarly fast, with good dashes and wavedashes.

On the other hand, characters that were in the Melee top tiers that were exceptions to the "good movement" rule have been at least perceived to have suffered in the transition, like Jigglypuff.[/quote]


I didn't mean tools specifically I meant things like Perfect waveland windows or how the character "feels"

EDIT something is wrong with the reply button
 
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DMG

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DMG#931
I didn't realize that a bunch of vastly different frame data meant characters were normalized. Jabs are probably more normalized than that LOL
 

KiteAF

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How do you guys feel about Charizard? I rarely see him anymore but everytime I watch Mask, the character looks amazing.
 

Life

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How do you guys feel about Charizard? I rarely see him anymore but everytime I watch Mask, the character looks amazing.
Suffers some from being fat, but less so than others like him due to his movement speed. Normals hit like a train, edgeguarding hits like two trains. Main problem for me playing Zard is getting back to stage from the ledge.
 

DMG

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DMG#931
Ledge dash? Dunno what his frame data on it is but it's probably ur best bet anyway
 

mimgrim

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I'm always going back and forth on Zard.

He has amazing grounded mobility to help make up for hist fatness and he does have a mostly good tool-kit.

But then, at the same time, stuff just seems to kinda not work for him or mesh well or something. Something, I feel, is missing for him.

Idk. I just can't decide quite how I feel about him.
 
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