I decided to try and start a fairly comprehensive list while waiting for tonight's PotD. I'll try to be as unbias as possible. I'm not including any arguably subjective stuff like "he's a Sony character" or "he doesn't fit". Regardless of whether these arguments hold any weight, they're irrelevant to this post, which is focused on just cold hard facts. I'll finish elaborating on each piece of evidence later (it's late and I have to drive for four hours tomorrow morning...
), but here's what I've got so far. Feel free to point out anything I've missed. Or argue that certain pieces of evidence have been miscategorized.
Will Snake be in Super Smash Bros Wii U/3DS?
For- Facts that point towards Snake's inclusion
Against- Facts that point towards Snake's exclusion
Ambiguous- Facts regarding Snake, Metal Gear, or Smash that could point in either direction or be completely irrelevant, but are certainly intriguing
Tinfoil Hats- Info that is either of dubious relevance or veracity that involves Snake, Metal Gear, or Smash 4 in some way
The Plain Evidence:
1.
MGS3D's release coincided very closely with the beginning of development
According to interviews with Sakurai, development on Smash 4 began after the release of Kid Icarus: Uprising, Sakurai's previous project, and the full roster was decided on at the very beginning of development. KI:U was released on March 22nd, 2012 in Japan, exactly two weeks after the Japanese release (March 8th) of MGS: Snake Eater 3D. This means that at the time the roster was being put together, there was a heavily promoted exclusive Metal Gear title released on a Nintendo console that was at most, about a month old, making Metal Gear actually very relevant to Nintendo at the time.
2.
Like MGS: The Twin Snakes, the most recent Nintendo Metal Gear at the time of Brawl's development, MGS3D was built from the bottom up as a Nintendo exclusive
While releasing an updated port of a universally acclaimed classic is not exactly a huge risk, MGS3D was released about a year after the 3DS, when sales of the handheld were still falling well below expectations. This suggests Konami was fairly recently willing to support Nintendo even when it did not seem prudent from a business perspective. MGS3D was one of the first third party titles announced for the 3DS, and while it suffered from framerate issues, this is a very common issue with titles released in the early part of any console's life, and the game was far from a half ***** copy and paste port. MGS3D, while a remake (of the greatest game in the series), was modified with updated models and textures that arguably look better than those in the HD version released on PS3 and XBOX360 around the same time. MGS3D also included numerous gameplay tweaks and streamlined touches to bring it in line with more recent Metal Gear releases, as well as unique features designed to make use of the 3DS's stereoscopic 3D, gyroscope, and integrated camera. The game also featured a cameo by Yoshi, including a newly recorded codec conversation about Yoshi as well. The situation is similar to the release of MGS: The Twin Snakes on the Gamecube, which likewise featured updated graphics and gameplay as well as Nintendo cameos and references. The Twin Snakes came out in March of 2004, a full year and a half before Brawl's development, which started in October of 2005, while MGS3D was released within a few weeks of the beginning of Smash 4's development. Twin Snakes also came out for the Gamecube, as opposed to the Wii, while MGS3D was released on the 3DS, one of the systems that Smash is actually releasing on.
3.
Sakurai tweeted from the private MGS 25th anniversary event held during E3 2012, after Smash 4 had already been announced, meaning Sakurai was well aware of the implications of broadcasting his presence at this event to the world
4. Snake is a veteran with an extremely unique move set who represents an entire series, was well received in Brawl, was the first third party character in Smash history (and evidence suggests that he was originally intended to be the only one), and was added to Brawl by Sakurai first and foremost as a personal favor to a friend, only narrowly missing the chance to be included in Melee as well
5.
Snake, the very first third party character announced for Brawl, has yet to be announced for Smash 4, which is not only releasing in a little over a month, but has already seen three other third party characters announced, including a fairly early announcement for Sonic, the only other third party veteran
6. Metal Gear, while always a series featuring heavy subject matter and adult themes, looks to be taking a nosedive deeper into darkness with the upcoming MGSV: The Phantom Pain, which will prominently feature such controversial themes as the psychological and physical effects of amputation, child soldiers, conflict diamonds, torture, war ****, and the protagonist's slow descent into amoral villainy in his relentless quest for vengeance, all of this being a rather jarring contrast with the far more lighthearted tone of prior Metal Gear games, let alone the happy go lucky worlds of Mario and Zelda
7. Hideo Kojima, the mastermind of the Metal Gear Series, when asked directly in a Twitch TV interview with Geoff Keighley whether Snake would be reappearing, responded that he didn't think so
The exact quote, delivered with a smile to the camera that could be interpreted as either conciliatory and uncomfortable or puckish and cheeky:
"I'm not working on that game so I don't know, but I don't think that's likely," said Kojima. "Well, if Mr. Sakurai is watching this, please use Snake."
BUUUUUT...
8.
Hideo Kojima is a notorious master of lies and deception unmatched in the gaming world, whose storied history of pranks and chicanery means his words should never be taken at face value
9. Similar comments were made by Sega, Capcom, and Namco representatives regarding Sonic, Mega Man, and Pac-Man before they were announced
10.
A Namco representative asked directly about Snake at E3 responded by saying "Uhhh... no, we have not announced Solid Snake yet." (emphasis mine)
11.
Snake did not appear in Sony's Smash knock-off Playstation All-Stars: Battle Royale, despite being an obvious choice, and the Metal Gear series was instead represented by Raiden
It's worth noting that both Capcom and Namco were also represented, although not by Megaman or Pac-Man.
12. Some new moves/items in Smash 4, including ZSS's new Final Smash, Sheik's new side B, and the Steel Diver weapon bear a rather superficial resemblance to Snake's Final Smash, neutral B, and side B respectively, leading some to suggest Snake's moveset has been broken up and divvied up among the roster
13. David Hayter, Snake's English VO for most of the series as well as Brawl, has been replaced by big name Hollywood actor Keifer Sutherland of 24 fame for MGSV
14. Keifer Sutherland revealed in an interview with IGN that he contributed voice work to an upcoming fighting game, specifically... Mortal Kombat
In an interview with IGN regarding his work on MGSV, Kiefer Suthlerland, the new English voice of Snake in MGSV let slip that he had recorded work for an upcoming Mortal Kombat game:
"I did Mortal Kombat
, and that's such a huge game, but it’s so not like MGS5."
Despite the newest Mortal Kombat being announced at E3 2014, with a steady drip of new information revealed since then, nothing has yet been announced regarding Keifer Sutherland's involvement, despite the fact that AAA games usually flaunt the involvement of Hollywood talent as soon as they can. This has led some to believe that Kiefer Sutherland was confusing Mortal Kombat for Smash Bros. I think this is reaching. First of all, give the man some credit. If he was hired to do voice acting for a project, he would know its name. Secondly, the actual quote draws a clear distinction between working on Mortal Kombat and on MGSV, suggesting that it is unlikely he is playing the same character in both projects. While it is mysterious that his involvement has not been announced, there are any number of reasons this could be the case.
In contrast, some have suggested that Keifer
was talking about Mortal Kombat, because Snake will be making a surprise guest appearance in that game instead of in Smash Bros. While this would be far from the most outlandish Metal Gear crossover if it turned out to be true (Ape Escape, Monster Hunter, Assassin's Creed, Little Big Planet, and a Smash clone that also features Barbie and Optimus Prime have all crossed over with Metal Gear at some point), I really think this is a ridiculous extrapolation unless we see more evidence.
15. Snake has thus far not been mentioned in any capacity by the Gematsu leaker, who is seen by many to have been discredited by Chrom's disconfirtmation anyways
16. A notable video game motion capture artist said in an interview that he had acted as Raiden in Smash Bros, tweeting the same day the interview was released that he had been mistaken and had meant Playstation All Stars: Battle Royale
17.
This is all part of a vast conspiracy orchestrated by the La-Li-Lu-Le-Lo