Looking back, Gematsu was always just a bunch of easy guesses plus Chorus Men to make it more legit. Of course it totally misses and falls at a slight curve ball in the form of Robin.
The Gematsu leak came in two phases. The first one included the out-of-left-field Wii Fit Trainer, which is where a lot of the leak's "legitimacy" came from.
The second leak contained:
- Chrom (Fire Emblem: Awakening)
- Chorus Men (Rhythm Heaven)
- Pokemon from Pokemon X and Y
This is where it all falls apart. Aside from Chorus Men, these are also all easy guesses. the "Pokémon from
X and Y" is especially easy, since it's so generic, it hardly sounded like it has anything official to it at all.
My guess: If there is any legitimacy to this at all, the first source got his info from an in-house demo build or announcement setup, and leaked it to Sal Romano, which became the Gematsu leak. Nintendo, who is
very good at tracking this sort of thing down, found out who leaked it and fired him. The source then compiled a list of "educated guesses" (which were basically pulled completely out of his rear), and "leaked" it again. This became the second leak, which is completely guesswork.
If the source did have knowledge of the full roster, why would we even get multiple leaks? Just release the whole roster all at once. This is where the "oh, it's outdated" bit falls apart. If he
knew the whole roster, even a pre-dev roster, it would have all come out at once. He didn't. We already know that Nintendo keeps the information very quiet, even in-house, as the treehouse stated that the devs had to play some of their favorite characters behind closed doors because they weren't common knowledge around the company.
If there was any "legitimacy" to the leak, it was only to the first half, and the source considered leaking it worth his job at Nintendo. I hope he was right about that.
Not that I'm believing this rumor just yet but it actually wouldn't contradict what Sakurai said.
They could make a broadcast that shows multiple newcomer trailers throughout the broadcast in between showing veterans with their possible new movesets and other changes as well as showing off the stages.
But it's unlikely that they'll reveal EVERYTHING, it just seems a bit over the top.
Especially for that
EARLY. That's more than a
MONTH from release. I'm expecting a character reveal to be around a week until release. You want a big "drop the bomb" right before release, to build hype and drive people to stores. Releasing it all this much earlier doesn't make sense.
Ridley might be that bomb, but since it's the Japanese release, and Ridley's an almost-solely Western fan release, I'd actually expect him during the 12th or so. It makes me wonder who the final announced character will be.