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Giving us false hope is an even worse decision than disconfirming Ridley outright, I feel like he'd much rather save us the misery and frustration that comes with building up Ridley for months only to shoot the hopes of the fans down with a disconfirmation and just disconfirm him as playable with a Stage Boss reveal for Pyrosphere when the stage was revealed.WOW. What a post, haha.
It's clear that you took a lot of time to write all this but to be completely honest, none of that convinces me.
The easy answer to the size debate is "Look at Olimar, he's actually the size of a quarter" and that's totally valid but Ridley is still an enormous dragon. Making a character bigger is much easier than shrinking one down. I still think that they could make Ridley fit without looking like he has some kind of deformity (I don't care how many Project M mods people show me, those fan-made Ridleys always look terrible) I just don't think it will happen.
It's also interesting that you bring up the "Samus' trauma" translation from the Japanese Miiverse post as very few people have ever brought that up before and it acts as a further confirmation that Ridley is who he was talking about.
Do you want my honest opinion as to why we haven't seen Ridley as a stage hazard yet? Honestly? Sakurai does not want to disappoint the fans. He knows that lots of people want Ridley. He knows that if he flat out announces that Ridley is a stage hazard, people will be upset. By teasing Ridley fans with the shadow and the trophy fake-out in the Smash Direct, he's giving you hope. Alas, there is no hope. Other M Ridley is a stage hazard. Done. 100%. No question.
That being said, Other M Ridley is a clone so if regular sized Ridley (from the original Metroid) or Meta-Ridley make it in, he can use the excuse that the Ridley in Pyrosphere is a completely different character. I can absolutely see him doing that and I honestly think that's the best possible scenario for Ridley.
Again, awesome mega post but this did not convince me that he's likely to be playable, it only further solidified my stance that's it's highly unlikely.
Sakurai has made some fairly questionable decisions in the past, but considering that he has stated that he doesn't like to lead fans along, coupled with the Ridley tease in the April Direct, it seems like he is more likely teasing Ridley as playable.
Disconfirm Ridley outright? Boom, done, he's not in, we'll probably rant and be upset for a little bit, but we'll move on.
Disconfirm Ridley after months of ambiguity and a formal tease? The amount of resent he'd get from the Ridley supporters would be 10x worse and the ranting and frustration would be on a completely different level from where it would be had he disconfirmed Ridley outright (at least from me).
Sakurai and Nintendo have demonstrated that they can be a little blind to the Smash Community (obviously that has begun to change, but still) but I imagine that there is no question that Sakurai would be aware of the backlash that would come with such a disgraceful and almost immature way of disconfirming a character.
He knows the fans love his game, and he wants to keep it that way, disconfirming Ridley after months of ambiguity would be in my eyes the worst decision he's ever made, and I would lose nearly all of the respect I had for his great game achievements because of his abysmal handling of the Playable Ridley Situation. I don't imagine that other Ridley supporters and other Smash fans (barring the "Toobigots" which hate us) would react much differently.
It'd be a heartless slap in the face to disconfirm him this way, and Sakurai knows it.