Woaw, good stuff. Good list, though i'm not going to say wat I disagree. Instead, I'll post my beliefs.
Confirmed Characters: [in order of confirmation; excuse me if I make a mistake]
-Mario
-Link
-Kirby
-Pikachu
-Meta Knight
-Pit
-Samus
-Zero Suit Samus
-Wairo
-Solid f***ing Snake
-Fox
-Zelda
-Bowser
-Ike
-Yoshi
-Donkey Kong
-the Pokémon Trainer: Proof Sakurai wants original newcomers.
-Peach
-Diddy Kong: Sakurai sucking up to us major fanbases!
-Ice Climbers: Sakurai loving original classics, and favors their return [possibly over clones].
Unconfirmed [status unknown] veteran characters:
Ganondorf: semi-confirmed: He's semi-confirmed from Anouma, and anyone who doubts if he's a playable character or not needs mental help. Seriously.
-Luigi: 99.9 [infinite 9]% chance: Anyone who doubts him needs to be smacked. Seriously, if Sakurai doens't have him in Brawl, I'll boycott the game, join the circus, and never play SSB again. Seriously, that is how important he is. Captain Falcon doesn't got s*** on him, and Captain Falcon is all but confirmed. Not to mention he's the 2nd most important character to Nintendo, and if he's not in Brawl, I smell trouble. Anyone who doubts Luigi needs to be beaten with a stick until they stop being a idiot. Seriously.
-Captain Falcon: 99%+: Anyone who doubts him will face the wrath of the FALCON PUNCH! if they doubt him. Actually, make it A SUPER DUPER SUPER AWSOME FALCON PUNCH!
-Falco: 92%: He's still the 2nd most popular Star Fox character pretty much. Despite rumors speculating of him being cut, if he was cut for lets say Balloon Fighter or someone, many Star Fox fans would be enraged.
-Marth: 85%: Yes he's Japan-only, but he's still the most important character to the series, being the star of two WHOLE FE games [Ike was only star of 1 1/3rd FE games...thus far]. He's still got GREAT chances IMO. Plus he was #1 on Sakurai's Melee poll, and that alone is a big help. Add the fact he's still the most popular FE character in Japan and worldwide [rivaled by Ike], and he's as good as gold in Brawl.
-Jigglypuff: 80%: I think the original 12 will stay in Brawl. Jiggs is very often played by the better of smashers, and really was the WTF? character of SSB64. Not just is she one of the most popular characters in Japan, but she's becoming one of the biggest Pokémon icons, and has been since Pokémon started. Plus I think after 2 SSB games a character is pretty much permentely imbeded in the series. But then again, that's just me.
-Mewtwo: 78%: As the Pokémon series' main villian, the 2nd most reconizable 1st gen Pokémon NOT TO BE POKéball'd [or up there=Blastoise will never be playable, Charizard is playable, and Venasaur shall be Pokéball'd again], I say his chances are great. Not just does Deoxys deconfirmation help, but really, smash without him isn't the same. But he needs to stop living the lowest life on the tiers, and start kicking some arse, the way he does in Pokémon. Something else to mention, he's the strongest Pokémon, which also definitely helps. Plus Sakurai loves originality.
-Mr. Game and Watch: 76%: Studies show Sakurai loves originality. HInt, hint, hint: Meta Knight, Ness, Captain Falcon, Fox, Jigglypuff, Shiek, Zelda, Marth, ICE CLIMBERS [this is the big one on this matter], Mr. Game and Watch, THE POKéMON TRAINER! Plus I'd argue he's one of the most important characters to Nintendo's history, being the star of their first VIDEO GAME, having his maker be a outsider and Nintendo, and die in a car accident several months later, and his creator virtually making the Metroid series with the man who idoled him [Miyamoto, mind you], and started the handheld gaming market. He's like the godfather of the godfather of gaming, and G&W in Brawl is the perfect ommige of wat he did to gaming. Thanks for the DS man, thanks!
-Ness: 70%: Sakurai tried dumping him in Melee. FAIL, and never try that again you mother f***ing idiot, or I'll f***ing pwn you and you're f***ing Nintendo arse company at f***ing EarthBound, a real man's RPG! [end rant]. We all know Sakurai tried to replace him with Lucas, but tha Mother 3 got delayed, so he held back Lucas. So, he kept him in. However, it could happen, since Mother 3 has been out for about 2 or 3 years. Anyways, I think if any of the original 12 are cut, it'd be him [he'd be replaced with Lucas], sad as it is, but I still think there's a chance Lucas AND Ness could BOTH be in Brawl, or have one or the other be a alternate costume/look for the other.
But there is something else to consider=EarthBound has basically the biggest cult-classic following out of the 4th gen gaming era. And if Ness is cut, that is the equivilance of EarthBound fans being stabbed in the b***s, repeatidly, and they've been abused enough. Not just did they not get Mother 1 or 3 in English, and get it internationally, but they've been abused, and ignored by Nintendo, despite thier amazingly dedicated fanbase, and size of their fanbase. So if Nintendo beats them down further, they might as well start the apocolypse. Ness or DIE. End of story. But seriously, Reggie [being his usual dumb-arse self] said he had more important things to do then to release Mother 3 worldwide, or in English. Last I checked, business [especially Nintendo] was all about serving the fans. Nintendo and Reggie, stop failing, and give us both characters, and finally help the EarthBound fan community back up. Seriously, stop being f***ing idiots, and jerks to them. [end 2nd rant]
-Roy: Around the 50% area now, but currently more likely in Brawl then not IMO; if Shiek is a PC his chances are in the 40%'s; if the Black Knight is deconfirmed, his chances are around 70%; if Shiek and the Black Knight deconfirmed, then he's in the 80%'s IMO:
If Shiek deconfirmed, his chances are in the 70%'s: I've reached a conclusion...if Shieks in Brawl, more then not Roy won't be in Brawl. If Shiek's not in Brawl, then Roy could stll go either way, but if Shiek's deconfirmed, then Roy will defintely stand a decent chance of being playable. Anyways, I want him decloned/luigifed, and made into a better, heavier, stronger character. He's slow, and needs wieght/super armor to help...kinda like Ike. I imagine him inbetween Ike's seemingly heavy weight, and Marth's light wieght.
Anyways, I think there WILL BE 3 FE characters. That said, Ike is confirmed, and Marth will probably make it. So IMO it comes down to Roy or the Black Knight, and more then not Roy will make it. Still, you never do know. Overall the reasons his chances are good is because he is the best rep of the GBA FE [there were 3 GBA FE games, making the most FE games on 1 system...unless the SNES had 3 or 4], and he's beecome very popular, and is considered "Strong" in lower levels of smash play. Stil, the Black Knight being FE: Path oF Raidiance's main villian, and a villian in Goddess of Dawn never hurts. It could easily go either ay, definitely.
Pichu: 15%: Being generally hated is bad, but still, it could be improved on. Maybe I'm giving it TOO good of chances after making a vid doing somewat of a poll of it, but 30% or so of everyone wants Pichu back [for reasons like the more characters/veterans the better, punching bag,they use/main Pichu, they like Pichu/Pokémon in general, etc.] 10% or so is neutral, and 50 against Pichu in Brawl, mainly due to roster size limitations. To check it out yourself/participate [even],
CLICK HERE! So ya, but chances are Pichu is gone, definitely.
Dr. Mario: 3%: Maybe I gave him 1% or so too high, but he was good for one round, but not the next. Unless Nintendo DESPERATELY NEEDS AN EXTRA CHARACTER like no tomorrow, he's gone. He should, however, be a alternate Mario outfit. Definitely.
-Shiek: Confirmed in Brawl...but who said playable, other then Nintendo World Press=???: Percentage Unknown: I'm stuck on this one to be honest. IMO either she's in Brawl as a PC, and Midna is a AT, cameo appearance, NPC, or boss, or just the opposite. I'm confused on this one, definitely. Anouma is helping with Sakurai to create the ultimate mind game mind game in Brawl! DARN YOU!
-Young Link: I see him becoming/being changed/upgraded into Wind Waker Link.
So ya, that's my anayisis on the unconfirmed veterans' chances of returning!
Edit: Votes on Sakurai's Poll:
-Links Uncle: 1 Vote
-Ridley: 5 votes
And Japan HATES METROID! They hate it to extremes. And wtf=???...didn't xianfeng start the original Ridley thread=??? WTF has happened=??? Wat next, I become a extremist anti-Wind Waker Link in Brawl person=??? That'd be all bad....
That'd be like armegdon, and we'd all be screwed. F***ing screwed.