The Official Thread For the Sal Romano/Gematsu Leak

[salaboB]

Except there isn't always a winner in the lottery. That's why the money prize goes up, which motivates more people to play, which increases the odds in which someone might actually win. The example is pertinent to the situation at hand, and the circumstances are exactly the same. We're just playing with hundreds/thousands of people instead of hundreds of thousands/millions of people, and the odds are far greater in favor of correct picks for us in comparison.

It's still like exactly like playing the lottery, just the prize is internet fame for your fledgling news website instead of money.

It's exactly like playing the lottery, except:

• You're not told which numbers you can select beforehand.

That's actually a really key flaw in this analogy. The leaks aren't just naming "Sure bets" and then they're not showing up (Picking numbers that could be chosen), some of these characters weren't even considered possibilities before the leaker named them.

And none of the predictions have been disproven yet. See my previous post if needed.

 

[ChunkyBeef]

It's exactly like playing the lottery, except:

• You're not told which numbers you can select beforehand.

That's actually a really key flaw in this analogy. The leaks aren't just naming "Sure bets" and then they're not showing up (Picking numbers that could be chosen), some of these characters weren't even considered possibilities before the leaker named them.

And none of the predictions have been disproven yet. See my previous post if needed.

You're not told which numbers you can select beforehand, but you can still go find out what numbers you can select. That's a minor difference.

And you might consider the predictions not disproven, but I made a novel about all the reasons why it SHOULD be considered disproven, or at the very least, held under heavy scrutiny.

 

[EmbersToAshes]

You're not told which numbers you can select beforehand, but you can still go find out what numbers you can select. That's a minor difference.

And you might consider the predictions not disproven, but I made a novel about all the reasons why it SHOULD be considered disproven, or at the very least, held under heavy scrutiny.

I disagree. We have no idea which 'balls' are in this lottery machine, because we have no idea what Sakurai's criteria is. WFT proved that. We can't find out what balls are in - we can guess, but really, those creating rosters are choosing from Nintendo's whole back catalogue. We have no definitive idea as to who is in the running and that's where the lottery comparisons end. Our odds are far, far worse than the actual lottery, due to our small betting pool and lack of knowledge about who's in the running. That's why Sal's leak holds so much weight - he's nailed five in a row with no clear selection criteria. And WFT/Villager to boot.

 

[Dark Dude]

I think we'll know when Smash is released. I mean, come on, seriously? If someone makes a list like this, containing characters no one had ever guessed along with popular choices and some off the wall ones, and every single character they predict is correct, there's no way, NO WAY, at that point you could still call it a "lucky guess," and if you do, then you're fooling nobody but yourself.

If he had listed every single character that is going to be in Smash and he was right about every single one of them, then that would be a good indication that it's a real leak. What we're dealing with here is far less than that. Also, I'd be careful about accusing others of fooling themselves if I were you, because you could very easily be doing the same. You're putting a lot of faith in to very little evidence.

The E3 "leak." He got 3 out of 6. I saw some people comparing this to tests earlier. 3 out of 6 is 50%. If you get a 50% on a test, that's a failing grade. I don't see how a failing grade makes him undeniably correct.

As for his Smash Direct "leak," he is 0% correct so far. If a test asked you to name the U.S. president in 1948 and you answered, "someone from Missouri," that is not a correct answer.

 

[Louie G.]

As for his Smash Direct "leak," he is 0% correct so far. If a test asked you to name the U.S. president in 1948 and you answered, "someone from Missouri," that is not a correct answer.

See, that's the thing. In Brawl, Sakurai planned "Fire Emblem Character", not Ike. Ike was decided later on, so it really depends on when the tipper received this info. If he found out during the deciding of the roster, then it is completely possible that "X/Y Pokémon" was listed rather than Greninja.

 

[Dark Dude]

See, that's the thing. In Brawl, Sakurai planned "Fire Emblem Character", not Ike. Ike was decided later on, so it really depends on when the tipper received this info. If he found out during the deciding of the roster, then it is completely possible that "X/Y Pokémon" was listed rather than Greninja.

So your argument is that he probably found out this information over a year ago, but decided to reveal half of the roster that he knew last year, then wait a year, until the day of the Smash Direct, to reveal the other information? If so, then why wait?

 

[EmbersToAshes]

So your argument is that he probably found out this information over a year ago, but decided to reveal half of the roster that he knew last year, then wait a year, until the day of the Smash Direct, to reveal the other information? If so, then why wait?

You don't seem to have an argument. Dude has leaked 11 characters so far. He's got five right, albeit that one was rather vague. You've completely ignored my response to your previous post, evidently because your previous argument was unfounded and this you couldn't reply, and now you're trying to negate two of his correct picks. The odds are insurmountable given the betting pool - he's either legit, or the luckiest SOB alive. I'm sticking with the former.

 

[Second Power]

If he had listed every single character that is going to be in Smash and he was right about every single one of them, then that would be a good indication that it's a real leak. What we're dealing with here is far less than that. Also, I'd be careful about accusing others of fooling themselves if I were you, because you could very easily be doing the same. You're putting a lot of faith in to very little evidence.

The E3 "leak." He got 3 out of 6. I saw some people comparing this to tests earlier. 3 out of 6 is 50%. If you get a 50% on a test, that's a failing grade. I don't see how a failing grade makes him undeniably correct.

As for his Smash Direct "leak," he is 0% correct so far. If a test asked you to name the U.S. president in 1948 and you answered, "someone from Missouri," that is not a correct answer.

New page, same ****. He got WFT. To continue with the test comparison, let's say we're in a first grade science class. If one of the questions is "What is the chemical composition of Methanol?" and a kid got it right, they had the answer sheet. I don't care what they got wrong, there's no way that kid could have answered that question without it. If you don't think so, fine. There's like, four months maximum until we can cross reference his 'answer sheet' with the 'test'.

 

[Dark Dude]

You don't seem to have an argument. Dude has leaked 11 characters so far. He's got five right, albeit that one was rather vague. You've completely ignored my response to your previous post, evidently because your previous argument was unfounded and this you couldn't reply, and now you're trying to negate two of his correct picks. The odds are insurmountable given the betting pool - he's either legit, or the luckiest SOB alive. I'm sticking with the former.

I already replied to your post in the post that you replied to. Your argument was that my statistics were wrong because I didn't include any variables (basically). I said, you could argue that I didn't include any variables, but neither did you. There was nothing more to be said.

My argument was posted here, by the way. I don't believe anyone said anything directly about it.

 

[EmbersToAshes]

I already replied to your post in the post that you replied to. Your argument was that my statistics were wrong because I didn't include any variables (basically). I said, you could argue that I didn't include any variables, but neither did you. There was nothing more to be said.

My argument was posted here, by the way. I don't believe anyone said anything directly about it.

Your statistics are falsified. I limited mine to a potential pool of 50 characters to get 55,000 to 1. You opened your statistics up to the entire world. Good job there. Let me put it on an even keel for you again. You claim there are 7000 Nintendo employees. There are 126 million people in Japan, and as the game is being developed there, those who know the team must live there. We'll add in another generous 10k people for friends and family of UK and US Nintendo employees. So instead of a full world sample, we now have an example on par with mine. Your statistics just rose dramatically.

Alternatively, if you still feel you're right, I could remove my variables and open up my statistics to all of Nintendo's back catalogue, to match your ludicrousy. Either way, your odds still come out as far more likely than nailing five characters in a row.

 

[Dark Dude]

Your statistics are falsified. I limited mine to a potential pool of 50 characters to get 55,000 to 1. You opened your statistics up to the entire world. Good job there. Let me put it on an even keel for you again. You claim there are 7000 Nintendo employees. There are 126 million people in Japan, and as the game is being developed there, those who know the team must live there. We'll add in another generous 10k people for friends and family of UK and US Nintendo employees. So instead of a full world sample, we now have an example on par with mine. Your statistics just rose dramatically.

Alternatively, if you still feel you're right, I could remove my variables and open up my statistics to all of Nintendo's back catalogue, to match your ludicrousy. Either way, your odds still come out as far more likely than nailing five characters in a row.

Whatever, man. I really don't care. You're adamant about the "leak" being real so discussing this with you is futile. Another reason why I didn't reply to your post.

 

[EmbersToAshes]

Whatever, man. I really don't care. You're adamant about the "leak" being real so discussing this with you is futile. Another reason why I didn't reply to your post.

If you don't care, then don't attempt to pose a counter-argument on statistics you know are falsified. The fact that you bothered to calculate the odds and open them up to the entire world just to try to pose a valid counterpoint only proves you care enough to want to argue the point. If you don't like the leak, that's cool, but making statistics to fit your viewpoint is hardly a means of providing a valid opposing viewpoint.

 

[Louie G.]

For the record, if the tipper works at Nintendo, which is highly possible, then he could have known the entire roster during early early development.
That being said he could have waited until E3 to reveal the info on the characters. A big event where Smash is showcased. Then he leaked more info to Sal before ANOTHER big Smash event, AKA the Direct. This is why I feel that we'll see the last "leak" at E3 2014.

 

[EmbersToAshes]

For the record, if the tipper works at Nintendo, which is highly possible, then he could have known the entire roster during early early development.
That being said he could have waited until E3 to reveal the info on the characters. A big event where Smash is showcased. Then he leaked more info to Sal before ANOTHER big Smash event, AKA the Direct. This is why I feel that we'll see the last "leak" at E3 2014.

I'm leaning more towards him working in PR or another position close enough to Nintendo that they can infrequently access this information near to events, but distant enough that they'd be unable to provide specifics on a character as we saw for Greninja. I can quite imagine the PR guys can only access information that vaguely references said characters - it's the kind of job that would ring true of a leak like this, for me.

 

[Bauske]

So your argument is that he probably found out this information over a year ago, but decided to reveal half of the roster that he knew last year, then wait a year, until the day of the Smash Direct, to reveal the other information? If so, then why wait?

Maybe he's doesn't have close access to information and he only got info that one time over a year ago. Maybe he didn't want to reveal all he knew back then because revealing everything that early one would have easily singled him out and caused him to lose his job. Revealing just a few newcomers before E3, three of which were shown, was smart on his part because by the time Sal said anything, a lot more people in the gaming industry knew Wii Fit Trainer was going to be in the game, so it would have been much harder to pinpoint who the leaker was.

I swear, people act like there's no repercussions for leaking information like this. Someone can lose their job for doing that. Would you want to lose your job for giving out information to a bunch of people you don't know on the internet? Probably not. Whoever this leaker is, he's a person, not a fact, and as such, I'm sure there are circumstances as to why he didn't reveal everything at once or why he was unspecific with Greninja. We don't know all the answers, but just because we don't know, doesn't make the leaker wrong.

I understand being skeptical, and I'm still holding judgement until we get more information, but for all the evidence we've had, he's gotten 5/11 correct so far, and time will tell if he gets the rest right. No other leak has gotten this far, but apparently that's not enough evidence for some to think "hey, you know what? this guy might be on to something."

 

[Dark Dude]

If you don't care, then don't attempt to pose a counter-argument on statistics you know are falsified. The fact that you bothered to calculate the odds and open them up to the entire world just to try to pose a valid counterpoint only proves you care enough to want to argue the point. If you don't like the leak, that's cool, but making statistics to fit your viewpoint is hardly a means of providing a valid opposing viewpoint.

I really don't know what you want from me. It literally took me a minute to come up with that calculation and it is a real calculation. That really is how likely it is that someone in the world would know someone else in the world who works at Nintendo. Obviously you're going to deny that that statistic has any validity because it counters your point. What I don't care about is to continue arguing this with you. I gave you some data, you dismissed it, fine. Done. Moving on.

Maybe he's doesn't have close access to information and he only got info that one time over a year ago. Maybe he didn't want to reveal all he knew back then because revealing everything that early one would have easily singled him out and caused him to lose his job. Revealing just a few newcomers before E3, three of which were shown, was smart on his part because by the time Sal said anything, a lot more people in the gaming industry knew Wii Fit Trainer was going to be in the game, so it would have been much harder to pinpoint who the leaker was.

I swear, people act like there's no repercussions for leaking information like this. Someone can lose their job for doing that. Would you want to lose your job for giving out information to a bunch of people you don't know on the internet? Probably not. Whoever this leaker is, he's a person, not a fact, and as such, I'm sure there are circumstances as to why he didn't reveal everything at once or why he was unspecific with Greninja. We don't know all the answers, but just because we don't know, doesn't make the leaker wrong.

I understand being skeptical, and I'm still holding judgement until we get more information, but for all the evidence we've had, he's gotten 5/11 correct so far, and time will tell if he gets the rest right. No other leak has gotten this far, but apparently that's not enough evidence for some to think "hey, you know what? this guy might be on to something."

Okay, now your argument is that he decided to spread out his information in order to not get in trouble. Yet, he decided the best time to reveal this information is during times when the most people are paying attention? I am well aware that people are Nintendo can get fired for leaking information. That's why it happens so rarely. But when it does really happen, it's accurate and it's not one person spreading it out over the course of a year.

I'm not saying flat out that this is not a legitimate leak. I am saying I do not believe it is and I am saying why I don't believe it. Any of us could come up with a plethora of reasons as to why he was wrong and try to make it sound like he might be right. I feel like if it was real, then we wouldn't have to be making up excuses for him.

 

[EmbersToAshes]

I really don't know what you want from me. It literally took me a minute to come up with that calculation and it is a real calculation. That really is how likely it is that someone in the world would know someone else in the world who works at Nintendo. Obviously you're going to deny that that statistic has any validity because it counters your point. What I don't care about is to continue arguing this with you. I gave you some data, you dismissed it, fine. Done. Moving on.


Okay, now your argument is that he decided to spread out his information in order to not get in trouble. Yet, he decided the best time to reveal this information is during times when the most people are paying attention? I am well aware that people are Nintendo can get fired for leaking information. That's why it happens so rarely. But when it does really happen, it's accurate and it's not one person spreading it out over the course of a year.

I'm not saying flat out that this is not a legitimate leak. I am saying I do not believe it is and I am saying why I don't believe it. Any of us could come up with a plethora of reasons as to why he was wrong and try to make it sound like he might be right. I feel like if it was real, then we wouldn't have to be making up excuses for him.

You just don't get it. You pulled your statistic on me, claiming it proved that it was more likely you'd guess five characters than know someone at Nintendo. I highlighted that your statistics aren't limited in the same way mine are, making them invalid. You clearly realize that and are unwilling to either make mine inclusive of all Nintendo characters or yours limited to those in the position to know the team, and are therefore resorting to the argument that because I support the leak, nothing is good enough. That's not an argument, it's stubbornness. As I said, if you don't like or believe the leak, argue it from a valid standpoint, as ChunkyBeef has. Don't pick and choose numbers to suit an invalid argument.

Edit: Also, while I don't necessarily support the leak from the same standpoint as Bauske, your counter argument to his point is also invalid. Some of the biggest leaks in history have been released over time. Wikileaks is a prime example. It's done for maximum impact. While I don't necessarily believe that's what we're seeing here, your argument that leaks aren't released over time is fallacious.

 

[Louie G.]

Whoever doesn't believe the leak has a lot of explaining to do about how Sal predicted Wii Fit Trainer.
I refuse to listen to any argument against the leak that refuses to take this into account.

 

[Morbi]

Whoever doesn't believe the leak has a lot of explaining to do about how Sal predicted Wii Fit Trainer.
I refuse to listen to any argument against the leak that refuses to take this into account.

The reason is that they assume it is probable that someone would eventually guess Wii Fit Trainer. It isn't the most plausible reason, but it is a reason nevertheless.

 

[IsmaR]

Whoever doesn't believe the leak has a lot of explaining to do about how Sal predicted Wii Fit Trainer.

I predicted the exact night the Gust Bellows was revealed as an item. Complete bull**** luck aside, just because something seems an impossible prediction to you doesn't mean it actually is an impossible prediction.

As an example that's almost as hard as it is to believe, there actually were people who predicted Decapre in USFIV.

I refuse to listen to any argument against the leak that refuses to take this into account.

I refuse to listen to you refusing to listen.

Seriously, this is as immature as a child covering their ears and saying "NOPE I CAN'T HEAR YOU LA LA LA NOT LISTENING."

 

[Louie G.]

But Wii Fit Trainer, Mega Man, AND Villager all predicted?
I really just meant that the point isn't brought up enough. But I know luck, and guessing all three of them isn't just a lucky guess.

 

[Bauske]

Okay, now your argument is that he decided to spread out his information in order to not get in trouble. Yet, he decided the best time to reveal this information is during times when the most people are paying attention? I am well aware that people are Nintendo can get fired for leaking information. That's why it happens so rarely. But when it does really happen, it's accurate and it's not one person spreading it out over the course of a year.

I'm not saying flat out that this is not a legitimate leak. I am saying I do not believe it is and I am saying why I don't believe it. Any of us could come up with a plethora of reasons as to why he was wrong and try to make it sound like he might be right. I feel like if it was real, then we wouldn't have to be making up excuses for him.

Yup, that's what I'm saying. If you think about it, it makes sense. While they're working on the game behind closed doors, not many people have access to that information, right? But before a big event like E3, they've got to set up booths and videos and other various forms of information to show what they plan to show. At this point in the cycle, there are a LOT more people working on it than just the team at Namco/Nintendo, so a lot more people will know about what is going to be revealed before they reveal it to the general public. In fact, most times, news and gaming sites know this stuff a few days beforehand, and are asked to sign a waiver in order to keep them from spilling the beans ahead of time.

But that's just it. At that point, a bunch more people know than just the development staff, so if information gets leaked? It's unfortunate, but it's much harder to pinpoint. There are too many people who know.

Had our leaker revealed the entire 11 characters back before E3, they could have easily ruled out the media and extra people surrounding E3 and found out who leaked the info and the guy would have lost his job. Had he said "Wii Fit Trainer" months before E3, they would have probably found him and fired him. But he did it just a couple days before E3. Does this mean he's legit? We don't know. Could this mean he might just be someone in the media who got the info early and leaked it to Sal? Possibly.

My point is, by doing it close to E3, he saved his butt because the pool of people who knew about Wii Fit Trainer by that point was probably much larger. You see what I'm getting at? Before E3, only a team of, let's say, 20-40 people know the roster. If it gets leaked, it's easy to find out who did it. Close to E3, probably every major gaming media site would have some idea, plus most employees at Nintendo would know. Much harder to find the leaker.

Same goes for the leak before the Direct. Had he leaked that back at E3, he would have been found out, but leaking it before the Direct, more people probably knew what was going to be present in the Direct due to editing, screening for mistakes, ect.

Here's my stance on it: You say we have to "make up excuses for him," but do you not realize that you're doing the exact same on the opposite end? You're making up excuses against him. None of us know who the leaker is or the circumstances surrounding the information he's revealed. The only fact we have is that he has accurately predicted 5 of 11 characters so far, and has not been wrong yet. Had he been wrong, this thread wouldn't exist, so we can't argue that, but to say he's wrong based on that one and only point of evidence is, to me, looking for excuses. People may think that he should have said Greninja's full name. People say that he should have predicted Rosalina. People also say that Mii, Pac-Man, and Little Mac weren't at E3. To me, those things don't matter because we don't know the leaker's reasoning behind any of this. We just don't. And instead, we're making up reasons and excuses.

I realize I'm doing much the same when giving examples as to why this could be legit, but the difference is that I'm not saying these things as fact, I'm saying these things as "what if?" Some people are using things like "only 3 out of 6 at E3" as fact against the leak, and to me, that's not fact. That's saying speculation is the same as fact, and it doesn't hold any ground in my mind. We have no evidence against Sal's leaker so far. None. All we have are ideas of why he's wrong being paraded around like evidence.

 

[Morbi]

But Wii Fit Trainer, Mega Man, AND Villager all predicted?
I really just meant that the point isn't brought up enough. But I know luck, and guessing all three of them isn't just a lucky guess.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luck
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/luck
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/luck
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/luck

Actually, it is (according to my sources).

 

[Louie G.]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luck
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/luck
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/luck
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/luck

Actually, it is (according to my sources).

I'm just saying that there's like a one in a billion chance that Sal predicted:
1. A character shunned by is own company
2. A character said by Sakurai to be "too cute" for Smash
3. A character hardly anyone thought of
All for the same E3 conference the day before without a source.

 

[Morbi]

I'm just saying that there's like a one in a billion chance that Sal predicted:
1. A character shunned by is own company
2. A character said by Sakurai to be "too cute" for Smash
3. A character hardly anyone thought of
All for the same E3 conference the day before without a source.

I agree with your sentiment, but adhering to confirmation bias isn't a good way to express this. It could have been a "lucky" guess just as it could have been a source (which is likely based on the preponderance of evidence).

 

[ChunkyBeef]

An issue I have here is that a project this big would have had its information compartmentalized by virtue of the size of it. Not everyone in the development team going to be working on every aspect of the game, and Sal Romano is a funny way to spell Masahiro Sakurai, Satoru Iwata or Reggie so we've ruled the development team out already.

Who are the only people that have full access to the game, or pertinent game information, before it gets sent to print?

1. Quality Assurance
2. Translators
3. Marketing

It's safe to assume that the leaker wasn't working at E3, since we got a leak later on in April before the Smash Direct, so that rules that possibility out. Marketing gets access to that information before us, definitely, but they wouldn't have access to the information that isn't shown at places like E3, so that rules that out. Plus, they'd have been able to look at the information given to them and would have definitely said 'Hey, that's Villager.' or 'Hey, that's Greninja.' and we'd have had a legitimate leak and wouldn't be here arguing about it, so that rules that out.

So that brings us to Quality Assurance and Translators. Quality Assurance is pretty much on task to make sure the game isn't broken, and to squash those big bugs. They could feasibly have information about the characters, but then that leaves a problem. Like the Marketing folks before them, QA would have access to names of the characters they were testing, and chances are if they got their information from other QA folks, they'd have been given actual names, so that rules them out as well.

So now we're down to translators. More specifically, we're probably looking at someone who works on trophy descriptions as a translator, but it could be anything. I'd just say that money's probably going to be with the trophy translators, so let's focus on them. Not every translator is going to be working on every trophy, so that might explain why Rosalina came and went without so much as a peep, why Villager and Greninja weren't listed by name and why they're 100% sure that certain characters are in. If they get multiple trophies, that's a pretty fair shake for a guess that they're going to be playable; if the translator is any bit a Smash fan, he'll know that.

Still, that leaves the question: how did they know about the E3 characters that were going to be announced? My guess is that they simply listed off a handful of the ones he knew and he just happened to get 'em right. After all, Pac-Man, Mii and Little Mac were in the leak and not announced at E3, but Villager, WFT and Mega Man were. So we're three for six there. The April leak also came and went similarly: lots of newcomers, but only one announced.

This would ALSO explain why the translator didn't find the Sheik/ZSS solo character information to be pertinent information, because if you're just working on translating text and/or trophy descriptions, you're likely not privy to that kind of information.

tl;dr: If there actually is a leaker, money's on them being a translator.

You know where to send my money, Nintendo. You're welcome.

 

[Noiblade]

But Wii Fit Trainer, Mega Man, AND Villager all predicted?
I really just meant that the point isn't brought up enough. But I know luck, and guessing all three of them isn't just a lucky guess.

This is the point i've been trying to make, maybe...Just maybe if they had been shown at 3 different events, I could see it possibly being a lucky guess.

But all 3 of them? Hell no. But hey anything is possible.

 

[praline]

But Wii Fit Trainer, Mega Man, AND Villager all predicted?
I really just meant that the point isn't brought up enough. But I know luck, and guessing all three of them isn't just a lucky guess.

I predicted 2 of the 3 for E3. It wasn't that hard for Villager and Megaman. I didn't even know there were characters on Wii Fit, if I did I could've easily predicted that too.

 

[EmbersToAshes]

I predicted 2 of the 3 for E3. It wasn't that hard for Villager and Megaman. I didn't even know there were characters on Wii Fit, if I did I could've easily predicted that too.

That's hardly an argument though dude. I could've, I would've aren't justifications. You didn't. Any nor did anybody else. There are reasons to doubt the leak, but writing the WFT off as easy isn't one of them, considering nobody got her but Sal.

 

[Noiblade]

That's hardly an argument though dude. I could've, I would've aren't justifications. You didn't. Any nor did anybody else. There are reasons to doubt the leak, but writing the WFT off as easy isn't one of them, considering nobody got her but Sal.

Yeah, I really hate the fact that people say WFT was a easy character to guess.
The only argument i've seen is:
"It's like the 9th best selling game on the wii, it doesn't surprise me at all"
1.Sales have nothing to do with a character being in Smash
2.No, it didn't sell well because it was a good game, it sold because it was part of a bundle I believe.

So please stop WFT was not an easy character to guess, if you say you guessed him, you're either lying or guessed it as a joke.

 

[salaboB]

I predicted 2 of the 3 for E3. It wasn't that hard for Villager and Megaman. I didn't even know there were characters on Wii Fit, if I did I could've easily predicted that too.

You have a link to your predictions?

If your reputation for accuracy wasn't on the line, it wasn't much of a prediction. It was "I wouldn't be surprised if these characters were in it."

Also, how many more did you think might be in that weren't announced? And of those, how many won't even be in the game when it's released?

We'll find out for sure after release, but remember -- as of now, none of the others in Sal's leak have been proven wrong either.

 

[Morbi]

Yeah, I really hate the fact that people say WFT was a easy character to guess.
The only argument i've seen is:
"It's like the 9th best selling game on the wii, it doesn't surprise me at all"
1.Sales have nothing to do with a character being in Smash
2.No, it didn't sell well because it was a good game, it sold because it was part of a bundle I believe.

So please stop WFT was not an easy character to guess, if you say you guessed him, you're either lying or guessed it as a joke.

As of March 2012, Wii Fit has held the position of third best selling console game not packaged with a console, with 22.67 million copies sold.[6]

I obviously got this from Wikipedia; but it indicates that it was not bundled with the console, it also asserts that it was the 3rd best selling game, but again, that was "as of March 2012." I would have to look up the recent numbers. Not that it is entirely relevant. I am just saying that it was more significant than what you were stating.

I just looked it up, I am getting the same number. The Wikipedia edit probably forgot to update the date or something.

 

[ChunkyBeef]

Yeah, I really hate the fact that people say WFT was a easy character to guess.
The only argument i've seen is:
"It's like the 9th best selling game on the wii, it doesn't surprise me at all"
1.Sales have nothing to do with a character being in Smash
2.No, it didn't sell well because it was a good game, it sold because it was part of a bundle I believe.

So please stop WFT was not an easy character to guess, if you say you guessed him, you're either lying or guessed it as a joke.

I think sales is a great indicator of what to look for as far as new series goes. MorbidAltruism beat me to it, but I'd imagine at some point Sakurai had to say, 'That's crazy, let's see if I can do something with this series.'. It's why I'm skeptical about Shulk's inclusion in the Sal Romano leak. Xenoblade sold like crap, didn't even break a million; X is likely to follow in its footsteps.

So I honestly feel like WFT is in a middle grounds: the information is all there for someone to make a guess, just no-one made a guess 'cause they were all sitting at their computers not playing Wii Fit. Out of sight, out of mind. I think people are just focusing on the wrong aspects of what's correct. It's why I pointed out that Greninja and Shulk were the points to look at the most over WFT. People just kinda see WFT as being this paragon of unlikely picks, when no-one saw her coming 'cause no-one was paying any attention to her.

Anyway, a Shulk deconfirmation is pretty much going to be the nail in the leak's coffin as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Deleted member]

Much hindsight bias

So bad arguments


....Wake me up when someone actually provides a good case against the leak.

 

[Morbi]

I think sales is a great indicator of what to look for as far as new series goes. MorbidAltruism beat me to it, but I'd imagine at some point Sakurai had to say, 'That's crazy, let's see if I can do something with this series.'. It's why I'm skeptical about Shulk's inclusion in the Sal Romano leak. Xenoblade sold like crap, didn't even break a million; X is likely to follow in its footsteps.

So I honestly feel like WFT is in a middle grounds: the information is all there for someone to make a guess, just no-one made a guess 'cause they were all sitting at their computers not playing Wii Fit. Out of sight, out of mind. I think people are just focusing on the wrong aspects of what's correct. It's why I pointed out that Greninja and Shulk were the points to look at the most over WFT. People just kinda see WFT as being this paragon of unlikely picks, when no-one saw her coming 'cause no-one was paying any attention to her.

Anyway, a Shulk deconfirmation is pretty much going to be the nail in the leak's coffin as far as I'm concerned.

That is essentially what I am looking for as well, that is the quickest way to de-confirm the leak. Anything will do, but I feel as though the Shulk de-confirmation is going to come a lot sooner.

 

[ChunkyBeef]

....Wake me up when someone actually provides a good case against the leak.

Wake up, I already made one. I also made you some eggs and toast. Now, get ready for school, the bus arrives in ten minutes.

 

[salaboB]

Anyway, a Shulk deconfirmation is pretty much going to be the nail in the leak's coffin as far as I'm concerned.

I'm mostly just waiting for any deconfirmation.

Until that shows up, I have seen no acceptable reason to believe the leak is fake. Your case included.

 

[Deleted member]

Wake up, I already made one. I also made you some eggs and toast. Now, get ready for school, the bus arrives in ten minutes.

I said good case.
Not long and obnoxious bull of a case.

 

[ChunkyBeef]

I said good case.
Not long and obnoxious bull of a case.

Why you gotta break my heart? Here, sit down, I'll read it to you.

Once upon a time, there was a lucky man named Sal Romano..

Anyway, it's cool if you don't want to read it, but you wanted a good case against it, and there it is, just don't complain there isn't a good case against it. As for being long and obnoxious, it's as concise as I can make what essentially amounts to a pile of puzzle pieces that don't fit quite right, so yeah it's gonna seem kinda crappy at first glance.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

Nobody could have guessed Wii Fit Trainer.

If the second leak is fake, it's because the first leak was based on actual inside information, and now the leaker is screwing with us. But that doesn't seem likely.