The Official Thread For the Sal Romano/Gematsu Leak

[Bauske]

Anyway, I've argued both FOR the leak and AGAINST the leak. There just feels, to me, like there's more evidence against the leak than for it. I've already outlined the ways to get me to admit I'm wrong, I'm just waiting for those bombs to drop, y'know?

I think at this point all of us are waiting for those bombs to drop. I highly doubt they'll reveal Chorus Men/Marshal at E3 this year. That seems like one of those secret characters they'll leave for the players to discover. I do, however, figure we'll get reveals like Chrom or Shulk, Palutena, and Pac-Man at this year's E3. Those are my "unlikely" predictions. But it'll be interesting to see if Sal's leaker gives us anything else before E3, or if he's completely done giving info. It's a waiting game (and I HATE waiting xD).

 

[ChunkyBeef]

I think at this point all of us are waiting for those bombs to drop. I highly doubt they'll reveal Chorus Men/Marshal at E3 this year. That seems like one of those secret characters they'll leave for the players to discover. I do, however, figure we'll get reveals like Chrom or Shulk, Palutena, and Pac-Man at this year's E3. Those are my "unlikely" predictions. But it'll be interesting to see if Sal's leaker gives us anything else before E3, or if he's completely done giving info. It's a waiting game (and I HATE waiting xD).

Heck, I'll even admit I'm wrong if Shulk gets revealed, though I'm right back to the grindstone if they decide to put in an X protagonist instead.

I'm kinda hoping we get another leak, should be interesting. I'm sure E3 is gonna be nuts.

 

[RODO]

People who say Wii Fit Trainer was a lucky guess, obviously wasn't around when it happened.

Let me break some of this down for you.

Sal Leaks
-Little Mac: Not a bad or hard guess, he's been highly requested
-Mega Man: Same as Little Mac
-Villager: This is a hard guess whether you want to believe it or not. Why? Sakurai said he was "Too cute, and would not make a good fit for a smash game."
-Wii Fit Trainer: Another hard guess, seriously, other than joking people, who would guess this?
-Mii: Not a hard guess either but still not something you would think of
-Pacman: While he is popular, he is a hard-out-of-the-park guess

Now you can say "But Noiblade! They were just lucky guesses!"
Which I would respond with sure maybe Villager could have been, but for sure Wii Fit Trainer wasn't.

Sal leaked 2 extremely hard to guess characters, and 1 semi-easy guess character.
Which would be highly unlikely but possible if the characters were shown at different times. But all at the same time? Doubtful.

Then later Little Mac comes along and gives more strength to the leak.

I'll put it like this, let's say someone gives you the answers to all the questions on a History exam, He gives you 6 of the answers but there are only 3 questions at the exam, and the answers gave to you are the same answers to the questions on the exam. You're done with the exam and you ace it. Does this mean the other answers weren't right? HELL NO.
During a lecture later the professor pops you a question, and that question is one of the questions that someone gave you the answers for early. You get that question right, so why in the world would you think the other 2 answers to questions would be wrong? This also ties into Rosalina, the guy gave you answers to a history exam not a math one, so why would you believe that the history answers were wrong when he never gave you math problem answers in the first place? So the Science exam rolls around(Smash direct) and you get 5 question answers, one is vague and is "It's got 3 letters and a b in it" Then there's only one question on the exam, and it's the one that had the vague answer. And lo and behold there's only one of the answers that fits the criteria and it's right? So why would you believe the other history and science answers are wrong when he's gave you nothing but right answers?

Allow me to break it down even further using your same example to prove you wrong. Say you have a history exam and have no idea what is going to be on it. Some guy says he knows everything on there and gives you 50 questions along with the answers to those questions. You go to your exam and there are only 20 questions on it but they are all one of the 50 you were given so you ace it. When you ask the guy why there were only 20 questions later on he replies with "Well I just looked over the class notes and picked out 50 of the most important things that you went over. I had no idea what would actually be on there."

And look at what we have here, a list of characters who are either from very successful franchises (mii originating from the most successful Nintendo home console) or characters who were highly requested. Wii Fit Trainer is pretty strange but if you think about it in terms of "who is a character that a more casual audience would know?", there are probably more casual players who have played wii fit and would better recognize Wii Fit Trainer than half of the Smash roster. Maybe people like us here at smashboards were just too close to the whole thing to see the big picture when it came to predicting, and let's face it, much more difficult things have been predicted (for instance, people do indeed guess winning lottery numbers which just goes to show that over time anyone can be right about something).

 

[EmbersToAshes]

Allow me to break it down even further using your same example to prove you wrong. Say you have a history exam and have no idea what is going to be on it. Some guy says he knows everything on there and gives you 50 questions along with the answers to those questions. You go to your exam and there are only 20 questions on it but they are all one of the 50 you were given so you ace it. When you ask the guy why there were only 20 questions later on he replies with "Well I just looked over the class notes and picked out 50 of the most important things that you went over. I had no idea what would actually be on there."

And look at what we have here, a list of characters who are either from very successful franchises (mii originating from the most successful Nintendo home console) or characters who were highly requested. Wii Fit Trainer is pretty strange but if you think about it in terms of "who is a character that a more casual audience would know?", there are probably more casual players who have played wii fit and would better recognize Wii Fit Trainer than half of the Smash roster. Maybe people like us here at smashboards were just too close to the whole thing to see the big picture when it came to predicting, and let's face it, much more difficult things have been predicted (for instance, people do indeed guess winning lottery numbers which just goes to show that over time anyone can be right about something).

Your argument falls apart though, right around where you argue that WFT isn't too hard to guess. Yes, you COULD guess her - but nobody did. Nobody. I believe one person mentioned it in passing as a joke on another site, according to someone here, but not a single guess. No WFT leak. Nothing. It's all very well arguing the basis for inclusion in hindsight, but that's all you're using - hindsight. And that counts for nothing. Like it or not, this dude is one of, if not the only person to post a leak with WFT on. Back that up with Villager, another character along the lines of WFT with a previous denial for Smash on top, and the fact that the odds of nailing 5 characters in a row is over 1 in 55,000, and the leak's looking pretty good. Not solid, because no leak can be at this stage. But a damn sight more likely than not.

 

[RODO]

Your argument falls apart though, right around where you argue that WFT isn't too hard to guess. Yes, you COULD guess her - but nobody did. Nobody. I believe one person mentioned it in passing as a joke on another site, according to someone here, but not a single guess. No WFT leak. Nothing. It's all very well arguing the basis for inclusion in hindsight, but that's all you're using - hindsight. And that counts for nothing. Like it or not, this dude is one of, if not the only person to post a leak with WFT on. Back that up with Villager, another character along the lines of WFT with a previous denial for Smash on top, and the fact that the odds of nailing 5 characters in a row is over 1 in 55,000, and the leak's looking pretty good. Not solid, because no leak can be at this stage. But a damn sight more likely than not.

Never said it was an easy guess just that maybe it's not as hard as we thought it was. It's much more likely to make a lucky guess than to have connections with someone within Nintendo.

 

[EmbersToAshes]

Never said it was an easy guess just that maybe it's not as hard as we thought it was. It's much more likely to make a lucky guess than to have connections with someone within Nintendo.

Is it? Is it easier to beat odds of 55,000+ to 1 than to go to school with someone who ended up working at Nintendo, for instance? Because somebody has to have went to school with these developers, or be friends with them, or something such. There's no statistical probability to that - it's just a fact. Conjecture based upon hindsight doesn't change the fact that nobody guessed WFT, which you're arguing wasn't all that tough. In hindsight.

 

[BADGRAPHICS]

Maybe people like us here at smashboards were just too close to the whole thing to see the big picture when it came to predicting, and let's face it, much more difficult things have been predicted (for instance, people do indeed guess winning lottery numbers which just goes to show that over time anyone can be right about something).

The only reason people win lotteries is because of the huge number of players. If only 100 people played, nobody would ever win.
If we had that kind of sample size for Smash Bros. predictions, we would be seeing a lot more winners, but we don't. If somebody won a lottery when only 100 people were playing, It would make sense to assume they had cheated. The odds are stacked way too high against the players for a winner to be even remotely plausible.

Obviously, the odds are stacked a little differently in our little Smash lottery, but it's still enough of a bizarre coincidence to pay attention to.

Never said it was an easy guess just that maybe it's not as hard as we thought it was. It's much more likely to make a lucky guess than to have connections with someone within Nintendo.

Having connections with Nintendo isn't that unlikely. I know two people who work for Nintendo that I met through completely different circumstances. I have nothing to do with the games industry; I expect the editor of a gaming blog is a lot more likely to have connections than I do. They would be easily acquired through conventions, etc.

 

[RODO]

Is it? Is it easier to beat odds of 55,000+ to 1 than to go to school with someone who ended up working at Nintendo, for instance? Because somebody has to have went to school with these developers, or be friends with them, or something such. There's no statistical probability to that - it's just a fact. Conjecture based upon hindsight doesn't change the fact that nobody guessed WFT, which you're arguing wasn't all that tough. In hindsight.

The hindsight thing is a flawed argument. Just because some of us didn't realize it back then that WFT was a viable option doesn't mean that there weren't ANY people back then that would have said she could be in the game.

The only reason people win lotteries is because of the huge number of players. If only 100 people played, nobody would ever win.
If we had that kind of sample size for Smash Bros. predictions, we would be seeing a lot more winners, but we don't. If somebody won a lottery when only 100 people were playing, It would make sense to assume they had cheated. The odds are stacked way too high against the players for a winner to be even remotely plausible.

Obviously, the odds are stacked a little differently in our little Smash lottery, but it's still enough of a bizarre coincidence to pay attention to.

Yeah but the odds of winning the lottery are like 1 in 200 million and the numbers are different every time. Nintendo has a pretty limited number of characters to choose from and has had 3 games to choose most of the characters already weeding out most of the possibilities. People do get lucky sometimes is all I'm saying.

 

[EmbersToAshes]

The hindsight thing is a flawed argument. Just because some of us didn't realize it back then that WFT was a viable option doesn't mean that there weren't ANY people back then that would have said she could be in the game.

Yeah but the odds of winning the lottery are like 1 in 200 million and the numbers are different every time. Nintendo has a pretty limited number of characters to choose from and has had 3 games to choose most of the characters already weeding out most of the possibilities. People do get lucky sometimes is all I'm saying.

Limited like perhaps, 50ish? Because that'd make it exactly like the lottery. People win the lottery because millions play. Hence the odds get lower. That doesn't apply here. There are maybe a thousand of us bothering to speculate regularly versus the same lottery odds. The actual odds of nailing 5 'numbers' is ludicrous. The hindsight argument is sound - you're speculating someone COULD have, but the fact is they DIDN'T.

 

[RODO]

Limited like perhaps, 50ish? Because that'd make it exactly like the lottery. People win the lottery because millions play. Hence the odds get lower. That doesn't apply here. There are maybe a thousand of us bothering to speculate regularly versus the same lottery odds. The actual odds of nailing 5 'numbers' is ludicrous. The hindsight argument is sound - you're speculating someone COULD have, but the fact is they DIDN'T.

To your knowledge, yes, you may be right. You cannot state that as fact though. And please quit acting like predicting the smash cast is as hard as winning the lottery. Not trying to hate but wow that's a bit of a stretch.

 

[EmbersToAshes]

To your knowledge,yes you may be right. You cannot state that as fact though. And please quit acting like predicting the smash cast is as hard as winning the lottery. Not trying to hate but wow that's a bit of a stretch.

It's not, it's statistically similar. Looking at it on a pure numbers basis, this guy selected 5 'numbers' from a pool of maybe 50. And he nailed them on. That places him at 55,000+ to 1. Now of course, if we were to get a true set of odds, then we'd have to have a scale that determines the likelihood of each character and then the combination of said five characters, which is impossible. Probably wouldn't help your argument either, considering WFT, having had no rumours, leaks or speculation previously, would have insane odds on her own statistically. You're probably best sticking at 55,000 to 1 and trying to argue that those odds are beatable with such a small guessing pool.

 

[RODO]

It's not, it's statistically similar. Looking at it on a pure numbers basis, this guy selected 5 'numbers' from a pool of maybe 50. And he nailed them on. That places him at 55,000+ to 1. Now of course, if we were to get a true set of odds, then we'd have to have a scale that determines the likelihood of each character and then the combination of said five characters, which is impossible. Probably wouldn't help your argument either, considering WFT, having had no rumours, leaks or speculation previously, would have insane odds on her own statistically. You're probably best sticking at 55,000 to 1 and trying to argue that those odds are beatable with such a small guessing pool.

Think about the number of winning combinations there are in the lottery. A lottery with 49 different numbers and having you pick 6 would have approx. 14 million different combinations of winning numbers. Smash on the other hand is limited to certain characters and within that limited amount of characters there are ways you can go about guessing such as using popularity or sales. You can't do that with the lottery because it's completely random. There is no methodical approach to winning the lottery making it much more difficult.

 

[BADGRAPHICS]

It's not, it's statistically similar. Looking at it on a pure numbers basis, this guy selected 5 'numbers' from a pool of maybe 50. And he nailed them on. That places him at 55,000+ to 1. Now of course, if we were to get a true set of odds, then we'd have to have a scale that determines the likelihood of each character and then the combination of said five characters, which is impossible. Probably wouldn't help your argument either, considering WFT, having had no rumours, leaks or speculation previously, would have insane odds on her own statistically. You're probably best sticking at 55,000 to 1 and trying to argue that those odds are beatable with such a small guessing pool.

Not only that, but the guy picked three that everybody else assumed weren't likely to come up.
If the three characters had been Ridley, Krystal and K. Rool we wouldn't even have a thread here, because everybody talks about them ad nauseam. A lot of the reason this is so compelling is that he predicted three characters that most didn't consider to be candidates. Never in my wildest dreams did I think we'd actually get Megaman in Smash Bros., before E3 2013 he was considered dream-roster wishlist material, not a viable prediction.

 

[EmbersToAshes]

Think about the number of winning combinations there are in the lottery. A lottery with 49 different numbers and having you pick 6 would have approx. 14 million different combinations of winning numbers. Smash on the other hand is limited to certain characters and within that limited amount of characters there are ways you can go about guessing such as using popularity or sales. You can't do that with the lottery because it's completely random. There is no methodical approach to winning the lottery making it much more difficult.

Is that not exactly what I just said above? We're talking five correct guesses. That's around 1/55,000. Of course it's not an accurate set off odds beyond their numerical consistencies - we'd have to know both Sakurai's basis for selection and a scale with which to grade their likelihood statistically. We don't have that - though it wouldn't help you. The dude still nailed WFT, who had nothing beforehand to suggest her, and Villager, who had previously been denied as poorly suited.

Here, think of it this way. I could place a bet tomorrow that David Beckham was going to win the 2015 London Marathon - though without knowing he was actually taking part in the race, my odds would be astronomical.

That's the WFT, and to a slightly lesser extent, Villager. Our 'betting pool' is too small and the odds too large to argue against the leak on a statistical basis. Statistically, it's shaping up to be a dead cert. As @ ChunkyBeef stated, E3 knocks the leak slightly. There are several issues he's highlighted that one could use to refute the leak if so inclined. However, it's statistically solid and no amount of hindsight justification of his character selection changes that. This dude's either legit or needs to buy himself a lottery ticket.

 

[RODO]

Not only that, but the guy picked three that everybody else assumed weren't likely to come up.
If the three characters had been Ridley, Krystal and K. Rool we wouldn't even have a thread here, because everybody talks about them ad nauseam. A lot of the reason this is so compelling is that he predicted three characters that most didn't consider to be candidates. Never in my wildest dreams did I think we'd actually get Megaman in Smash Bros., before E3 2013 he was considered dream-roster wishlist material, not a viable prediction.

This is exactly why I said that we might be too close to smash to see the big picture. In terms of general popularity, Mega man is WAY more popular than those 3 characters, maybe even combined. It's sort of akin to how we find it strange that people don't care for competitiveness in smash but we forget that we are in the minority most of the time. Sakurai is aiming to please a broad fanbase but we as fans have a very narrow view of how we think smash should be compared to his.

 

[ChunkyBeef]

Never in my wildest dreams did I think we'd actually get Megaman in Smash Bros., before E3 2013 he was considered dream-roster wishlist material, not a viable prediction.

I never expected Mega Man in Smash Bros., but that didn't stop me from thinking about it. I was discussing it with friends as early as post-E3 a handful of years ago, when they first announced Smash 4 without any warning. Realistically, there's not a single third party character that could create the same hype that Sonic and Snake did when they were revealed. It made sense, to me, that if any third party was going to be chosen it would be Mega Man. Pac-Man wasn't even considered 'cause I don't even think Bamco was even announced to be part of it at the time, either. Now that we know Bamco's part of it, and have known for a while, everyone expects Pac-Man to be in, 'cause it's the logical choice.

You're right that no-one likely expected him in Smash, not especially with Capcom in shambles and doing nothing with the IP, but unlike Wii Fit Trainer and Villager, we can't say that no-one was expecting him or predicted him.

This dude's either legit or needs to buy himself a lottery ticket.

Probably the best summary of the Sal Romano leaks I've ever seen.

 

[RODO]

Is that not exactly what I just said above? We're talking five correct guesses. That's around 1/55,000. Of course it's not an accurate set off odds beyond their numerical consistencies - we'd have to know both Sakurai's basis for selection and a scale with which to grade their likelihood statistically. We don't have that - though it wouldn't help you. The dude still nailed WFT, who had nothing beforehand to suggest her, and Villager, who had previously been denied as poorly suited.

Here, think of it this way. I could place a bet tomorrow that David Beckham was going to win the 2015 London Marathon - though without knowing he was actually taking part in the race, my odds would be astronomical.

That's the WFT, and to a slightly lesser extent, Villager. Our 'betting pool' is too small and the odds too large to argue against the leak on a statistical basis. Statistically, it's shaping up to be a dead cert. As @ ChunkyBeef stated, E3 knocks the leak slightly. There are several issues he's highlighted that one could use to refute the leak if so inclined. However, it's statistically solid and no amount of hindsight justification of his character selection changes that. This dude's either legit or needs to buy himself a lottery ticket.

We'll probably never agree because some of you guys think it's a bigger feat than I do, and that's fine. I just think that being part of this community makes us slightly biased towards and against some characters and that if we saw the bigger picture then we would understand more of Sakurai's picks.

 

[EmbersToAshes]

We'll probably never agree because some of you guys think it's a bigger feat than I do, and that's fine. I just think that being part of this community makes us slightly biased towards and against some characters and that if we saw the bigger picture then we would understand more of Sakurai's picks.

I get that, but you're missing my point. The fact that you argue we are too close only proves that none of us could create a leak that looked remotely genuine. By your argument, we're too close to truly choose characters as Sakurai would. So, by that token, we'll exclude our community. Why was there not a single leak to include WFT? Are we to believe they were all too close, too? And if so, what makes Sal's leaker so special that he is on the same wavelength as Sakurai for 5 characters straight? I anticipate you would naturally argue that anybody creating a leak is by definition close to the community and therefore unable to appreciate Sakurai's selection process. By this token, however, Sal shouldn't have been able to do it himself. You see the contradiction?

Personally, I don't think we're going to agree on this, however.

 

[RODO]

I get that, but you're missing my point. The fact that you argue we are too close only proves that none of us could create a leak that looked remotely genuine. By your argument, we're too close to truly choose characters as Sakurai would. So, by that token, we'll exclude our community. Why was there not a single leak to include WFT? Are we to believe they were all too close, too? And if so, what makes Sal's leaker so special that he is on the same wavelength as Sakurai for 5 characters straight? I anticipate you would naturally argue that anybody creating a leak is by definition close to the community and therefore unable to appreciate Sakurai's selection process. By this token, however, Sal shouldn't have been able to do it himself. You see the contradiction?

Personally, I don't think we're going to agree on this, however.

Well I wasn't necessarily talking about leaks but just people guessing. I think someone who was a smash fan outside of our community would have a better time guessing WFT than we would. And also, 99% of "leaks" are made up =P

 

[EmbersToAshes]

Well I wasn't necessarily talking about leaks but just people guessing. I think someone who was a smash fan outside of our community would have a better time guessing WFT than we would. And also, 99% of "leaks" are made up =P

For sure. By people within the community. Hence their inability to create a leak that lasts longer than a month. We just don't understand Sakurai's selection process. We apply reason to each character post-announcement, but only using hindsight - we have no idea why any character was chosen, and we never will. All these people creating fake leaks do so because they care enough about said game to be amused by watching other fans wind themselves up over it. By that token, if we're to believe Sal's is a fake, he should have fallen victim to exactly the same trap everyone else has. But he hasn't. He's nailed five in a row over a period of a year without being proven wrong, or having any doubt cast beyond his initial 6 characters at E3. He hasn't got a character wrong. His winning streak and inability to be disproven doesn't track with any other fan-made leak.

 

[RODO]

For sure. By people within the community. Hence their inability to create a leak that lasts longer than a month. We just don't understand Sakurai's selection process. We apply reason to each character post-announcement, but only using hindsight - we have no idea why any character was chosen, and we never will. All these people creating fake leaks do so because they care enough about said game to be amused by watching other fans wind themselves up over it. By that token, if we're to believe Sal's is a fake, he should have fallen victim to exactly the same trap everyone else has. But he hasn't. He's nailed five in a row over a period of a year without being proven wrong, or having any doubt cast beyond his initial 6 characters at E3. He hasn't got a character wrong. His winning streak and inability to be disproven doesn't track with any other fan-made leak.

I suppose only time will tell if he is right or not. If he ends up being right you can say "I told you so."

 

[EmbersToAshes]

I suppose only time will tell if he is right or not. If he ends up being right you can say "I told you so."

And if he's wrong you're equally welcome to rub my nose in it. As you can tell I have a fair bit of faith it in it - I hope my posts came across that way, rather than confrontationally.

 

[RODO]

And if he's wrong you're equally welcome to rub my nose in it. As you can tell I have a fair bit of faith it in it - I hope my posts came across that way, rather than confrontationally.

They did, and I actually like to debate so it's fine lol. I'm mixed on it myself because it has people I want and people I don't so either way I'm fine I think. I've been needing an excuse to get my post count up anyway so thanks

 

[EmbersToAshes]

They did, and I actually like to debate so it's fine lol. I'm mixed on it myself because it has people I want and people I don't so either way I'm fine I think. I've been needing an excuse to get my post count up anyway so thanks

It's got a few I like, and a few more I don't, to be honest. I'd love Shulk (:D) and Palutena, but equally, Pac-Man and Mii suck. Not to mention there's no Ridley and no Mewtwo thus far. I can understand disappointment - I love the two I mentioned, but i'm holding out hope he's missing a character or two.

Edit: Also, K. Rool can bite me. Reminds me far too much of the ridiculous crocodile on the Coco Pops adverts. I don't need that in Smash. I would not rather have a bowl of Coco Pops.

 

[RODO]

It's got a few I like, and a few more I don't, to be honest. I'd love Shulk (:D) and Palutena, but equally, Pac-Man and Mii suck. Not to mention there's no Ridley and no Mewtwo thus far. I can understand disappointment - I love the two I mentioned, but i'm holding out hope he's missing a character or two.

Everything you said is exactly how I feel about it.

 

[Dark Dude]

Is it? Is it easier to beat odds of 55,000+ to 1 than to go to school with someone who ended up working at Nintendo, for instance? Because somebody has to have went to school with these developers, or be friends with them, or something such. There's no statistical probability to that - it's just a fact. Conjecture based upon hindsight doesn't change the fact that nobody guessed WFT, which you're arguing wasn't all that tough. In hindsight.

The odds, without calculating any variables (like characters from more popular games are more likely), are 55,000 to 1, huh? Let's calculate the odds of knowing someone who works at Nintendo. Nintendo has roughly 7,000 employees worldwide and there are roughly 7 billion people on the planet. The odds that you would know one of these people are 90,000 to 1. You could argue I didn't add in any variables, but neither did you. So, statistically, the method you brought up, you would be more likely to correctly guess than you would to know someone who works at Nintendo.

 

[EmbersToAshes]

The odds, without calculating any variables (like characters from more popular games are more likely), are 55,000 to 1, huh? Let's calculate the odds of knowing someone who works at Nintendo. Nintendo has roughly 7,000 employees worldwide and there are roughly 7 billion people on the planet. The odds that you would know one of these people are 90,000 to 1. You could argue I didn't add in any variables, but neither did you. So, statistically, the method you brought up, you would be more likely to correctly guess than you would to know someone who works at Nintendo.

@ Dark Dude

The difference is, your odds are fallacious. My statistics prove as close to a reflection of likelihood as is possible. They limit the selection criteria to 50 possibilities, rather than the thousands of Nintendo characters that are technically possible. You opened your statistics up to the entire world without a necessity to calculate said probability in the first place. Moot point. Good job. Way to create a level playing field. I may as well completely write this off and add that considering the game is being developed in Japan, that actually limits the potential pool of people who could know an employee to around 126 million. Add in friends of Nintendo UK and US employees at a push for a generous 10k people. Your odds just rose.

 

[Bauske]

Pac-Man wasn't even considered 'cause I don't even think Bamco was even announced to be part of it at the time, either. Now that we know Bamco's part of it, and have known for a while, everyone expects Pac-Man to be in, 'cause it's the logical choice.

Actually, I've known Namco was working on the game since way before E3. I can't remember where I heard the info, but I remember some friends tweeting it to me because they knew how much of a Pac-Man fan I was, so when it came to E3, I was honestly hoping for Pac-Man to be revealed there. But I'm not complaining about Mega Man. Next to Pac-Man, Mega Man is my second favorite character in video gaming.

Probably the best summary of the Sal Romano leaks I've ever seen.

I laughed. xD Also, completely off topic, but I LOVE your sig picture. Rick and Morty is one of the best shows I've ever seen on Adult Swim.

 

[ChunkyBeef]

Actually, I've known Namco was working on the game since way before E3. I can't remember where I heard the info, but I remember some friends tweeting it to me because they knew how much of a Pac-Man fan I was, so when it came to E3, I was honestly hoping for Pac-Man to be revealed there. But I'm not complaining about Mega Man. Next to Pac-Man, Mega Man is my second favorite character in video gaming.

Ah. I was referring to the actual broader announcement that Bamco was participating, but that's funny. I'm usually abreast of Smash news and I hadn't heard that before the announcement. Good stuff.

I laughed. xD Also, completely off topic, but I LOVE your sig picture. Rick and Morty is one of the best shows I've ever seen on Adult Swim.

Best new show on the air currently. I just wish the signatures were big enough for me to show the whole .gif. Alas..

 

[Sucumbio]

not to go backwards in discussion, but I'm gonna go backwards.

how do we (people in general) tell the difference between a "leak" and a "lucky guess?"

Well, here's Time's top 10 leaks of all time:

• The WikiLeaks War Logs *****
  
• Watergate's Deep Throat **
• The Pentagon Papers ***
• Plamegate *****
• Cablegate *****
• The Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo Scandal *
• McChrystal's War Plan *****
• The Apache Helicopter Shooting ***
• Sarah Palin's E-Mails ***
• Lil Wayne's The Leak ****

The stars represent the strength of the leaker's identity in terms of public knowledge. WikiLeaks is a huge name in the media, so everyone knows them, so their leaks get five stars.

In literally 8 out of 10 of the world's most famous "leaks" the leaker was known to the public either before, during or just after the leak took place. Eight, out of ten. Deepthroat wasn't outed until 2005, some 30 years later, but he was made public nonetheless. The identity of the person who leaked the treaty that ended the Mexican-American war, remains a mystery though plenty have speculated.

So basically, the skepticism from the Sal leak is because we don't really know if he's just making lucky guesses or if he really does have some insider from Nintendo feeding him information. And because Sal isn't exactly well known to be a pillar of truth or a man of impeccable integrity, we can't just take him at his word. We -have- to guess ourselves, take it on faith, with a little logic and statistical analysis thrown in. So sure, the guy/gal at Nintendo doesn't want to lose their job, or get sued or whatever. Fine. But that means we'll never REALLY know if this leak was indeed a legit leak, or just one man's clever guesswork. Not unless the leaker themselves comes forward someday if ever.

I bring this up because I see some comments stating "well if Chorus Men get confirmed then that seals the deal."

Why should it? Why should JUST one more "oddball" pick being right, MEAN it's a leak, and not just good guesswork? I mean really, he could get them all right, and STILL, it's not really a leak, is it? Or is it? No way to really know...

At least with these other famous leaks, the leaker was manifest. Many came right out and said "Hi, my name is such-n-such, and I have some news to leak." So... of course we bought it as legit. This Nintendo person though, is it all just a clever front for Sal's own personal agenda?

So, now that I've examined this issue from both angles, yeah I still believe (note believe, not know) that Sal IS being informed by a Nintendo insider. But there's no way to know for sure. Even after the reveal at e3 this year. Hell even after the game comes out. All we'll be able to know is that Sal was right, mostly right, or kinda right, etc. As to why he was right, no way to tell. Informant, or clairvoyant, it's all up to the individual to decide.

As for how this has bolstered his site hits, heh well whatever. He claims he didn't do this for the attention. Well he certainly got it whether he wanted it or not. For glory, or for fun, Sal Romano has got his 15 minutes of fame.

 

[Bauske]

I think we'll know when Smash is released. I mean, come on, seriously? If someone makes a list like this, containing characters no one had ever guessed along with popular choices and some off the wall ones, and every single character they predict is correct, there's no way, NO WAY, at that point you could still call it a "lucky guess," and if you do, then you're fooling nobody but yourself. Right now it's fine and dandy to say that Sal's tipster may or may not exist, or he may or may not have legit information, but after this is all said and done and we know the full roster? The decision will be made then as to whether it was true or not. We will straight up know if it was true by which characters are on the roster and which are not. Will we ever know the leaker's identity? Probably not, assuming he/she still has a job and wants to keep it. But at that point, it won't matter anyway. We'll have the game in hand and have our roster of playable characters, and in the end, that's all we really care about.

 

[soviet prince]

This, in my opinion, is why I believe the leak is true. If you think about it, the roster is far from disappointing. We get a lot of great newcomers with this leak and we have no idea if that's the end of them. He didn't mention Rosalina, who else hasn't he mentioned. Even if the newcomers are limited to these 12, it's still a pretty great roster with the vets returning and getting some slight or major overhauls. I'm sure there's a reason we haven't seen Falcon, Falco, or Ganondorf. Anyway, that discussion goes off topic.

My point is that if people are disappointed with this roster, they've set themselves up for disappointment by expecting too much, just like with Brawl. This is a team of people working on a project, not a genie granting every wish. They can only do so much. That said, ultimately we're going to have to wait for E3 to see if Sal's leaker is right. If he gets another one or two newcomers accurate, I think more people will start to believe it. He hasn't been wrong so far, but again, he may not have listed everyone that's a newcomer. Brawl had15 newcomers, 17 if you could all three Pokemon from Pokemon Trainer, so who's to say that 12 is the limit in Smash 4?

I don't think only wanting the two most popular characters ridley and rool is asking that much, if they were in he can put in daffy duck and I still like the roster( although would be disappointing for the fans the got shunned)

 

[ChunkyBeef]

I bring this up because I see some comments stating "well if Chorus Men get confirmed then that seals the deal."

Why should it? Why should JUST one more "oddball" pick being right, MEAN it's a leak, and not just good guesswork? I mean really, he could get them all right, and STILL, it's not really a leak, is it? Or is it? No way to really know...

You're right, Chorus Men doesn't technically seal the deal. It could be more luck, or good guesswork, but it's like someone winning the lottery, saying they knew the numbers before they were even revealed, and then they're called out to do it again and do it again. At that point, well, he's either EXTREMELY, impossibly lucky, or he's got a legitimate leak. I'm willing to believe he's not making **** up at that point.

As I said before, I'm willing to also consider the leak accurate if they show off Shulk. He's as equally an unlikely pick as WFT and Chorus Men, though for different reasons.

 

[Gameboi834]

we have no idea why any character was chosen, and we never will.

Mario was chosen because he's Nintendo's mascot :B

 

[EmbersToAshes]

Mario was chosen because he's Nintendo's mascot :B

Y'know, last night, I knew someone would pick a character from the first game and say this. You know what I meant, screw you.

 

[Arcticbanana]

People can win the lottery, therefore, Wii fit trainer was guessable.


LOGIC

 

[EmbersToAshes]

People can win the lottery, therefore, Wii fit trainer was guessable.
LOGIC

You haven't read this thread at all, have you? People win the lottery because though the odds of picking five numbers is 1 in 55,000, the betting pool (the amount of tickets sold) is in the hundreds of thousands. Therefore though YOUR odds are minuscule, the odds of a winner are higher. This doesn't apply here. Our betting pool is tiny - maybe a thousand, or a few at most. And yet the same 1 in 55,000 personal odds apply. The odds of someone actually nailing five 'numbers' here are minuscule because our pool is comparatively tiny.

...And there goes that logic.

 

[salaboB]

Allow me to break it down even further using your same example to prove you wrong. Say you have a history exam and have no idea what is going to be on it. Some guy says he knows everything on there and gives you 50 questions along with the answers to those questions. You go to your exam and there are only 20 questions on it but they are all one of the 50 you were given so you ace it.

Let me extend your example a little further:

And then the next day the professor hands you a 30-question test with the remaining questions on it.

Smash isn't out yet. The remaining characters are not disproven.

 

[Morbi]

You haven't read this thread at all, have you? People win the lottery because though the odds of picking five numbers is 1 in 55,000, the betting pool (the amount of tickets sold) is in the hundreds of thousands. Therefore though YOUR odds are minuscule, the odds of a winner are higher. This doesn't apply here. Our betting pool is tiny - maybe a thousand, or a few at most. And yet the same 1 in 55,000 personal odds apply. The odds of someone actually nailing five 'numbers' here are minuscule because our pool is comparatively tiny.

...And there goes that logic.

Not only that, but in the case of the lottery; there is always a winner. In the case of leaks, it is very possible that no one is correct. Therefore the example isn't really pertinent to the situation at hand as the circumstances are entirely different.

 

[ChunkyBeef]

Not only that, but in the case of the lottery; there is always a winner. In the case of leaks, it is very possible that no one is correct. Therefore the example isn't really pertinent to the situation at hand as the circumstances are entirely different.

Except there isn't always a winner in the lottery. That's why the money prize goes up, which motivates more people to play, which increases the odds in which someone might actually win. The example is pertinent to the situation at hand, and the circumstances are exactly the same. We're just playing with hundreds/thousands of people instead of hundreds of thousands/millions of people, and the odds are far greater in favor of correct picks for us in comparison.

It's still like exactly like playing the lottery, just the prize is internet fame for your fledgling gaming news website instead of money.