It matters indirectly in a way since you have set counts to go off of so if you place higher then you're more likely to beat people that cement a spot on the PR, but technically the panel does not go by placings when constructing a PR.
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Well, I've always operated under the assumption that the PRs represent how well players did vs. other players. Strictly using tournament placings is arbitrary because it includes random things like where you ended up on the bracket and makes it hard to deal with attendance related issues (is one first better than 4 2nds?, etc).me being too exhausted to even play articanus should be assigned the same value as me losing to him; why wouldn't it? i can see that you might wish to draw a line at some point; exhaustion from drugs would be different from exhaustion from being at your mother's funeral early in the morning which is still different from playing badly because you're really ****ing pissed at something.
the problem is that we haven't all agreed on what objectively the power rankings should represent. my upbringing believing that occam's razor is defined in terms of entropy leads me to believe that we should find a single value clearly objectively obtainable from the data which we collect, and we should collect as much data as possible. this is the unix way: accept as much extra **** as you can parse as your program (brains of the panel) parameters, and give the cleanest and most purpose-intentive **** as your output (always going to simply be a list of 10, although you ****ed up this time with your cluster**** at 10).
i don't like the fuzzy human brain in most situations, but i feel like intuitive thinslicing of a smasher's skill relative to another smasher is something which the brain would excel at; do we accept this data as parameters for the program? no, because people would get pissed off (not necessarily because it wouldn't be fair). do we take matchups into account? no, this rewards playing lowtiers by a nonzero amount at worst, and has no effect at best. do we take into account splitting/bracket rigging between friends? absence due to one reason rather than another reason? prior performance in previous PR periods ppppp?
no, we don't use any of this data, but it isn't because this data isn't correlative to skill. we have already agreed to strip melee down to the game which we play, which does not have hyrule temple or items, and have the winner be decided exactly every time objectively by what character shoes up on the victory screen: the function of your match returns this value to the superfunction of the tournament and this is all that matters. We get people who argue that perhaps we should allow items, to allow hyrule temple, to allow wobbling. We also have people who run tournaments for single player mode, for low-tier characters, and other variables which can be changed. this situation is isomorphic to the problem of what values to accept as meaningful when determining the power rankings.
The parameters of what everyone agrees is the ideal "smash tournament", though, has solidified down to a couple different instantiations of what can be considered the same thing, with only the smallest discrepancy. The parameters of what everyone agrees is the ideal "power ranking list", however, has not, even though all of the data which we have agreed upon, and all of the data we have considered, is objective and binary, much like the actual game of smash.
this is because the question of who is better at a videogame is several orders of magnitude more complex (in the mathematical sense) than the question of who won a particular match at a videogame.
i still think it can be solved with math. i would propose eliminating the idea of the power ranking "period" and instead have a constantly-updating and deterministically-realized PR list with the following parameters:
model the probability that a certain player will beat another player using bayes' law, multiplying the prior by a >1 coefficient based on how long ago the evidence used to make the model was generated. use this model to play a thousand iterations of a tournament with every player being given every possible seed, have a payout system which pays out proportionally to every place instead of top 3, and then use the payout to determine powerranking listings which also include relative gaps between players.
edit: if this is nonsensical ignore it
Just put whoever you want in top 10 and the other 2 as HMs this time around with GofG if it helps you feel better about them. <.< Arguably the 10th spot is HMs anyway lol.iunno I just feel like HMs are really where you could put some of those difficult choices
help us know who you guys are/were considering
that way people know they're heading in a good direction
but seeing the PRs come out like **** doesn't make me motivated to go to tournaments, since if I do happen to beat anyone that "matters" I'll probably lose to some who "didn't place well" so whatev
I mean, it is more a matter of tweaking an already-existing bayesian prediction machine for our data.And yeah, I'm 100% certain this could be mapped using math. That's kind of the whole point of the way it is designed. David thinks so too, and he was going to make a program to do it a while ago but he got lazy, lol. If you think you could make a program that analyzes the data for us after we put in all data, then that would be awesome.
I am taking your concerns seriously. I responded to both you and Cam the same way(and probably Dorsey too but I forget exactly what I said to him).lol it's just frustrating, being passionate about something
and people obviously don't take me seriously
brush me off like "oh just it's our good friend ramblin' Dark Hart with his angry opinion LOOOOOOOOL
just pisses me off
oh and I can never get a straight answer
Number of characters in your post, including whatever you quote.edit: why does smashboards randomly select whether to include my signature?
No way. My huge wall of text post up there did not have a signature.Number of characters in your post, including whatever you quote.
I don't know anything about programming and kinda suck at math. @__@I mean, it is more a matter of tweaking an already-existing bayesian prediction machine for our data.
I am curious as to what David's methods were going to be.
edit: why does smashboards randomly select whether to include my signature?
Err yes, that is how programs work. I am more interested in what happens in between the input and output phases.I don't know anything about programming and kinda suck at math. @__@
I think David was just going to make something where we put in the parameters and the data and it just ranks every player put into it.
Lucas I responded to your post seriously. I legitimately don't know what you want from me anymore LOL. I guess you want me to change and do exactly what you said but, like for anyone else, you must convince me first.lol Kevin you don't take anything I say seriously XD
and neither does anyone else
Oh....yeah sometimes you gotta quote and it'll show up every time LOL. SWF is buggy and confuses me sometimes XDNo way. My huge wall of text post up there did not have a signature.
Mmmmmmm ****ing love John Wittle. Really interesting explanation. You'll need to define/explain some of the more mathematical stuff towards the end for me in person to better understand the system you're proposing, but I think your analysis of the problem is correct enough.The parameters of what everyone agrees is the ideal "smash tournament", though, has solidified down to a couple different instantiations of what can be considered the same thing, with only the smallest discrepancy. The parameters of what everyone agrees is the ideal "power ranking list", however, has not, even though all of the data which we have agreed upon, and all of the data we have considered, is objective and binary, much like the actual game of smash.
this is because the question of who is better at a videogame is several orders of magnitude more complex (in the mathematical sense) than the question of who won a particular match at a videogame.
The model couldn't handle a fringe case and so the model could be improved upon, period.That 3 way tie and other shenanigans associated with this update are a result of the length of the period and irregular data scattered throughout it(including spotty attendance). One irregular period isn't cause for any kind of overhaul in the PR method because they all would have been screwed up due to how difficult and unusual the data was.
Actually, it really wouldn't resolve the tie. The tie is there because we literally couldn't (or at least didn't see a way to) resolve the lack of data between those three players. We know those three players are the ones in contention for the spot, so if we went to 15, it would just be a three way tie for spot 10, and then people after that like normal. Usually when we make PRs we have a pretty good idea of who would fill the next few spots if they were to keep going (and that's usually how I try to seed tournaments when I end up being the person seeding). For instance, Gofg would certainly be next in the list if it kept going. That being said, I'm neutral as to whether or not we extend the PRs.Mmmmmmm ****ing love John Wittle. Really interesting explanation. You'll need to define/explain some of the more mathematical stuff towards the end for me in person to better understand the system you're proposing, but I think your analysis of the problem is correct enough.
Also, I kinda like the idea of a top 15. Why?
-It eliminates the need to remove anyone (being that it seems to be consensus that if earned spots are just that regardless of tentative future attendance),
-Resolves the 3/4/5 way tie for 10th...at least far enough to let people who are within the spectrum of contenders for that spot be held above the rest of the unranked who are not. The case has been made that any of those people could be in that last spot, so why not extend the list a little and properly designate the potential 10th's to be PR'd?
-If we have a top 15, by necessity, there will be more ranked matches between ranked players and therefore more data to work with, even with lowered attendance. This lowers the ambiguity problem of determining how bad losses to unranked players are by narrowing the list of unranked players.
Just a thought.
Why would it be better?if you could have objectively determined which of them was actually better than the other two, you would have done that, so I assume you couldn't.
what would be better than a PR system would be a point system where people were ranked based on numbers of points, which would be the arbitrary unit of value used to determine PR placings anyway. It is perfectly okay for two people to have the same number of points, but they can't both be "5th best" in a community.
In all actuality, one of those three players probably deserves the spot. But it would be decided based off of some small observation that none of the panelists saw. For instance, it could go to the second order of who beat/lost to who, who they beat/lost to, etc. The problem is not with the system but with the panelists inability to consider all the data that relates to the decision, because it is such a close call. A true tie could only exist in a triangle situation (if I beat david, who beat sneak, who beat me) if that was ALL the data that we had. But a case that is actually a true circle is almost impossible to have when we have so many different set counts (even if the decision has to come down to some random not so good player someone beat).if you could have objectively determined which of them was actually better than the other two, you would have done that, so I assume you couldn't.
what would be better than a PR system would be a point system where people were ranked based on numbers of points, which would be the arbitrary unit of value used to determine PR placings anyway. It is perfectly okay for two people to have the same number of points, but they can't both be "5th best" in a community.
since it is necessary to build such a system, even with the value points being extremely abstract and never manifesting in anything other than the minds of the panelists, you might as well have that system be the main thread of the PR program rather than a function called by it.
the panelists are the entire system from beginning to endThe problem is not with the system but with the panelists