I saw it, pretty cool.
I think the issue is that a lot of people don't really internalize that other people might care about characters that they aren't familiar with.
In this case, everyone assumes that everyone became familiar with Marth with melee, but that's not true, the Japanese audience knew about him a long time before then.
Furthermore, part of prediction needs to be the realization that Sakurai is also effected by his own biases, and characters that he cares about are much more likely to get into Brawl, he's far more likely to be directly biased towards a character that is highly popular in Japan, and far less likely to internalize the popularity of a character who's fanbase is elsewhere.
Thus characters that are popular in Japan are still more likely, if only for those reasons.
The character he brought as a counter, you gotta realize, he's essentially a wtf character, that's his charm, thus anybody can recognize him on those merits, as opposed to a character that is Mega-popular yet you never knew about.