You wouldn't know it based off of what people say in the speculation threads, but Greninja, our ninth Pokemon rep, was the first starter to get in Smash by their own merits. Before Greninja, the only other starters we had were Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Charizard; none of whom would likely have made it in Smash without Sakurai wanting to find a way to represent the human protagonists.
Once you understand that, you'll realize that Greninja was all it took for people to become fixated on starters. Incineroar is in Smash now, so of course two in a row must mean we're far more likely to get a starter. That or Urshifu, because Nintendo understands that people won't be tempted to purchase the SwSh DLC unless they blatantly promote Isle of Armor alone. Nothing else will do.
I can sense the bitterness in your words. I know, I've felt it myself, as most of you saw two years ago. It's...
frustrating, being stuck on the outside looking in toward a community where so many make up their minds so quickly.
It really does seem like a lot of speculation ends up being a reaction to whatever happened most recently. In Pokémon's case, getting a couple starters apparently means
only starters are worth taking a look at, apparently. Except when the Smash community makes exceptions to its own rules for cases like Urshifu or Toxtricity or Mimikyu or...you get the idea. Not to diminish anyone who legitimately likes those characters--no one should be sneered at for wanting someone they care about to have a shot in Smash. But when people who aren't so emotionally attached and aren't as informed about the source material start making judgement calls, and the rest of the community treat
their word as if it's already proven true while ignoring or outright mocking anyone more informed who doesn't follow along...no wonder people start to resent newcomer speculation like this.
Wish I had a good answer for what to do with it, but...all I've really found is to seek out ways to let that frustration out in
some way that doesn't harm anyone. Oneself included.
I remember that some people were expecting for Toon Link to be replaced by yet another version of link (namely A Link Between Worlds), solely based on the fact that Toon Link replaced Young Link as the clone of Link (along with Link, Zelda & Ganondorf to be replaced by their Skyward Sword versions, including turning Ganondorf into Demise). And that Lucario would be replaced by Zoroark or Mewthree because it replaced Mewtwo. Or that Ike would be replaced by Chrom because he replaced Roy. It's ridiculous that people immediately try to find a pattern formed from 2 games.
Aye, I remember that. Early in Smash 4 speculation, a whole lot of people assumed the oldest characters were mainstays while the newer ones from Brawl would just be one-offs replaced by newer ones. We had no
proof of this (and after dataminers found out Mewtwo and Roy were planned for Brawl, we actually had evidence to the contrary), but it was accepted as this Thing Everyone Knows anyway. And, sure enough, Toon Link and Lucario stuck around and Ike wasn't "replaced".
This is why we need to be careful when we read into past precedent and potential patterns. Sometimes they can mean something, but often they're just the community chasing red herrings. This is why delving into the details is important--we want to have as much information as possible to assure we're
actually putting 2+2 together instead of putting 2+X together and assuming X=2.
But getting
any lesson like that in this community to take root is immeasurably difficult, because not only are people constantly coming and going, the majority seems to gravitate around whoever was "right" most recently. We can get
some to catch on, but it still feels like a losing battle. And yet, leaving things as they are only leads to people feeling left out...