Work In Progress The Graveyard: Disconfirmed Character Thread (Smash Ultimate Edition!)

[CommanderZaktan]

mark that date gravekeepers! Because august 8th is a direct! Better make those new tombstones and dig up those who are not playable in Smash 4.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I'm thinking the direct will be used to show off single player content but we may still get some more assist trophies.

 

[Chandeelure]

This place is probably getting an expansion August 8th... I hope I don't have to list any popular characters.

Also Chandeelure , can you make the new gaveyard image? You can wait until after the Direct, but I want the thread to have it, still using the Smash 4 one looks silly (Sorry if I sound bossy).

I have this for now, I only made gravestones for the characters that had high chances or decent support, not all of them for obvious reasons.

Spoiler

 

[PeridotGX]

I have this for now, I only made gravestones for the characters that had high chances or decent support, not all of them for obvious reasons.

Spoiler

View attachment 155802

Great Job! But in the next one, can you add Meowth, Eevee, Proto Man, Midna, and Sukapon in the next one? I feel those were prominent enough to get a grave. (Sorry I sound so bossy).

 

[Chandeelure]

Great Job! But in the next one, can you add Meowth, Eevee, Proto Man, Midna, and Sukapon in the next one? I feel those were prominent enough to get a grave. (Sorry I sound so bossy).

I will, don't worry!

 

[Cosmic77]

So after today, we got:

Shovel Knight
Ashley
Mimikyu
Zero
Pauline (official)
Dracula
Alucard
Kappn
Vulpix
Ditto
Claptrap

There's quite a few more. Can someone add on to this list?

 

[DNeon]

Grey Fox to add to that list just off the top of my head

 

[PeridotGX]

Updated.

The purge wasn't as brutal as expected. The only big ones were Ashley, Mimikyu, Shovel Knight, and maybe Zero

 

[Drawcia]

Captain Toad is in New Donk City.

 

[StrangeMann]

Captain Toad is in New Donk City.

Any pictures?
EDIT:

 

[Drawcia]

Any pictures?
EDIT:

Yes, that picture

 

[PeridotGX]

Captian Toad is still possible. Only characters with a major role in a stage are disconfirmed. He's just a background (foreground?) element, so he's still in the running.

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

Mimikyu and Ashley have both been dismissed. I wasn't expecting Mimikyu to be playable anyway. As for Ashley, a heavy blow for her fans.

 

[Bayopuff]

I still can't get over Waluigi not being in the game, I know my feelings are shared with a lot of people and it may be perceived as mostly whining, but I really wanted to see him as a playable character. Not that I'd main him or whatever.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Captian Toad is still possible. Only characters with a major role in a stage are disconfirmed. He's just a background (foreground?) element, so he's still in the running.

Considering Duck Hunt is pretty important on his own stage, is able to be interacted with, and is a character, I wouldn't necessarily throw out Captain Toad either. Pauline seems another story, though. Considering she's too important and hard to be replaced on a whim.

 

[Opossum]

RIP Alolan Exeggutor

o7

 

[Gallowglass]

Rest in peace

 

[AIM0001]

I come here to pay my respects to Ashley and Shovel Knight. I was rooting for both. Shovel Knight looks great though and I know he’ll be discussed for Smash 5. SK’e music alone was a sell for me to pull for him as my number 1 practical third party choice.

 

[Erimir]

I wouldn't say that it makes Captain Toad impossible, but I would certainly consider him much, much less likely. It would be unprecedented for him to get in at this point given that he's not a veteran. However, we know there are accommodations that have been made for similar character situations (Toon Link on Spirit Train). And technically speaking, Sakurai can do whatever he wants. He could turn an AT into a DLC character if he wanted to, or even make them both an AT and a playable character. In that regard, no character can be truly considered disconfirmed. If it is to have meaning, we have to consider it based on precedent and Sakurai's statements... No stage element has been revealed and then later revealed as a fighter.

The only plausible exception is Toon Link, who was already a veteran, and whose stage appearance uses a different outfit. Other characters that appear on stages have appeared in pixel sprite form (Dedede, DK, Duck Hunt). Even then, Dedede doesn't appear in the background of Dream Land if he's being used. By contrast, this is exactly as you'd expect Captain Toad to appear if he were playable. Same outfit, same graphical style (not pixel style).

The other bit of evidence we might consider is that Pyrosphere is not a returning stage. Given that the Yellow Devil has returned and Dracula's Castle contains many enemy/boss stage hazards, and Rathalos, it's not because stage bosses have been removed. It's because Ridley is now playable, and I guess they didn't want to bring it back without the Ridley stage boss. They could've simply had Ridley not appear if Ridley was being played, or removed him from the stage entirely, but they chose to cut the stage instead. Planet Zebes (64) is not returning either, but that's probably for other reasons (they could easily handle Ridley like Dedede on Dream Land).

So the only question is whether you think Toon Link's situation is similar enough or not. I think that Pyrosphere's exclusion and the lack of precedent suggests that Captain Toad should be considered disconfirmed, knowing that, of course, there's always a tiny amount of uncertainty. The only worse situation to be in would be to be revealed as an AT.

Better picture (direct from source instead of screenshot): https://www.smashbros.com/assets_v2/img/stage/stage_main01.jpg

 

[CommanderZaktan]

Well, at least Shovel Knight is in as an assist. It's better than being a mii costume, trophy, or nothing!

Promote him as a gravekeeper!

 

[MrRoidley]

Captian Toad is still possible. Only characters with a major role in a stage are disconfirmed. He's just a background (foreground?) element, so he's still in the running.

Pretty much. Otherwise Toon Link and Duck Hunt wouldn't be playable as well, since Smash 4. Plus, ZSS's Final Smash features regular Samus and she's still playable
While sure this does raise some potential problems for Captain Toad, by no means it outright deconfirms him. imo what deconfirms a character is being a major stage hazard, Assist Trophy, or, if history tells us, being revealed as a trophy prior to release (but then it'd be still OK for DLC)

oh and RIP Mimikyu :/ the only part I didn't like of an otherwise flawless Direct. But I can live on without it

 

[SvartWolf]

Alucard had a very small thread, but im pretty sure it was the pipe dream of many.. even if everyone understood that if we got castlevania in smash we would get a Belmont. so i think he could use a bed..... i meant a grave!

And shovelknight as teh gravekeeper is a great idea.... specially since someone needs to keep Death out of this graveyard, unless you want him taking everyone's souls too!

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Pretty much. Otherwise Toon Link and Duck Hunt wouldn't be playable as well, since Smash 4. Plus, ZSS's Final Smash features regular Samus and she's still playable
While sure this does raise some potential problems for Captain Toad, by no means it outright deconfirms him. imo what deconfirms a character is being a major stage hazard, Assist Trophy, or, if history tells us, being revealed as a trophy prior to release (but then it'd be still OK for DLC)

oh and RIP Mimikyu :/ the only part I didn't like of an otherwise flawless Direct. But I can live on without it

The dog was actually able to be interacted with as a platform. He's a "major role" by all means.

There might be more to it than we thought. Captain Toad might not be in, but simply showing up in the background won't be enough either way. Duck Hunt isn't a good example, though.

 

[Redwood27]

I thought maybe balloon figher was disconfirmed due to his track appearing in the "other" music section, but I guess it falls under the one game category so he's still up in the air. Pun intended.

 

[Erimir]

Pretty much. Otherwise Toon Link and Duck Hunt wouldn't be playable as well, since Smash 4. Plus, ZSS's Final Smash features regular Samus and she's still playable

Samus is still Samus, whether she's wearing the suit or not. There is no more contradiction in Zero Suit Samus putting her Power Suit on than the existence of Samus dittos. Samus in a Varia Suit is not a different character from Samus in a Gravity Suit, there's only one Samus. And yet they are fighting each other on the same screen?! And Samus not wearing a suit (Zero Suit Samus, if you will) is fighting them as well?! This departs strongly from canon and the well-known fact that Samus is only one person! Straws, you are grasping at them.

Toon Link was already a veteran, and on Spirit Train he wears the engineer's outfit (which is too bad, I always thought it would be a fun alt).

Duck Hunt and Donkey Kong are shown in 2-D, 8bit form, which is obviously quite distinct from their playable character models. I don't think the Duck Hunt stage was shown before Duck Hunt the fighter either.

By contrast the model on the New Donk City stage is exactly how you'd expect Captain Toad to look.

And, as I pointed out above, it's noteworthy that Pyrosphere was cut, most likely due to Ridley being playable. Because it sure isn't that Sakurai thinks stage bosses are no fun. While that's obviously a more prominent appearance than Captain Toad's (even if you can interact with him, it's hard to be more prominent than Ridley on Pyrosphere), it's noteworthy that they are somewhat avoiding these situations.

While sure this does raise some potential problems for Captain Toad, by no means it outright deconfirms him. imo what deconfirms a character is being a major stage hazard, Assist Trophy, or, if history tells us, being revealed as a trophy prior to release (but then it'd be still OK for DLC)

Being revealed as a trophy should be less disconfirming than being part of a stage. Fighters get trophies! Multiple trophies, in fact. The issue with Rayman or whatever is that he received a whole update about his presence as a trophy, it was not an incidental reveal. If someone noticed it in a crowd of trophies, that would be a more similar situation. I would say the case would be even stronger against Captain Toad if Sakurai does an update about New Donk City Hall and specifically points out Captain Toad. But it's very strong already.

I understand, I didn't want to believe the Ridley shadow disconfirmed him. But it ended up being the case. Lesser things than blatantly seeing the character fully rendered as a stage element in their standard appearance have strongly suggested a character not making it in. If you want to quibble that technically Sakurai could pull a crazy head fake on us and confirm Captain Toad anyway, I'd have to concede that, yes, he could. He could reveal that some AT or Pokemon revealed on the website was actually playable and he was j/k about them being an AT, or even that "they're the first character to be both an AT and a playable fighter!". But if that's your threshold, then nobody would be "disconfirmed" until release. And even then people can always argue that there could be secret shenanigans ("Maybe if you summon Ashley's AT 100 times, you unlock her! Sakurai never said that wasn't the case! And even if he did, he could be lying!"). The more reasonable thing is to conclude that Sakurai is extremely unlikely to pull that **** with any character, and even more unlikely to pull it in this specific case, and consider things like this a reasonable theshold to say that they're disconfirmed.

But I mean, they're your hopes to get up.

 

[Cosmic77]

Samus is still Samus, whether she's wearing the suit or not. There is no more contradiction in Zero Suit Samus putting her Power Suit on than the existence of Samus dittos. Samus in a Varia Suit is not a different character from Samus in a Gravity Suit, there's only one Samus. And yet they are fighting each other on the same screen?! And Samus not wearing a suit (Zero Suit Samus, if you will) is fighting them as well?! This departs strongly from canon and the well-known fact that Samus is only one person! Straws, you are grasping at them.

Toon Link was already a veteran, and on Spirit Train he wears the engineer's outfit (which is too bad, I always thought it would be a fun alt).

Duck Hunt and Donkey Kong are shown in 2-D, 8bit form, which is obviously quite distinct from their playable character models. I don't think the Duck Hunt stage was shown before Duck Hunt the fighter either.

By contrast the model on the New Donk City stage is exactly how you'd expect Captain Toad to look.

And, as I pointed out above, it's noteworthy that Pyrosphere was cut, most likely due to Ridley being playable. Because it sure isn't that Sakurai thinks stage bosses are no fun. While that's obviously a more prominent appearance than Captain Toad's (even if you can interact with him, it's hard to be more prominent than Ridley on Pyrosphere), it's noteworthy that they are somewhat avoiding these situations.
Being revealed as a trophy should be less disconfirming than being part of a stage. Fighters get trophies! Multiple trophies, in fact. The issue with Rayman or whatever is that he received a whole update about his presence as a trophy, it was not an incidental reveal. If someone noticed it in a crowd of trophies, that would be a more similar situation. I would say the case would be even stronger against Captain Toad if Sakurai does an update about New Donk City Hall and specifically points out Captain Toad. But it's very strong already.

I understand, I didn't want to believe the Ridley shadow disconfirmed him. But it ended up being the case. Lesser things than blatantly seeing the character fully rendered as a stage element in their standard appearance have strongly suggested a character not making it in. If you want to quibble that technically Sakurai could pull a crazy head fake on us and confirm Captain Toad anyway, I'd have to concede that, yes, he could. He could reveal that some AT or Pokemon revealed on the website was actually playable and he was j/k about them being an AT, or even that "they're the first character to be both an AT and a playable fighter!". But if that's your threshold, then nobody would be "disconfirmed" until release. And even then people can always argue that there could be secret shenanigans ("Maybe if you summon Ashley's AT 100 times, you unlock her! Sakurai never said that wasn't the case! And even if he did, he could be lying!"). The more reasonable thing is to conclude that Sakurai is extremely unlikely to pull that **** with any character, and even more unlikely to pull it in this specific case, and consider things like this a reasonable theshold to say that they're disconfirmed.

But I mean, they're your hopes to get up.

One small thing to add on to what you said:

Aside from ROB, we've never seen a newcomer make his first appearance as something besides a playable character before officially getting revealed.

According to the rules in this thread, Captian Toad is not disconfirmed. However, if Sakurai went through the trouble to make CT a foreground element in a stage, then I highly doubt he had any other plans for him. There's not much of a reason for him to tease or mislead us with someone like CT.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

One small thing to add on to what you said:

Aside from ROB, we've never seen a newcomer make his first appearance as something besides a playable character before officially getting revealed.

According to the rules in this thread, Captian Toad is not disconfirmed. However, if Sakurai went through the trouble to make CT a foreground element in a stage, then I highly doubt he had any other plans for him. There's not much of a reason for him to tease or mislead us with someone like CT.

I'd counter that with Ganondorf's trophy in Melee but that is a bit of a shaky example.

RIP Ashley, Mimikyu and Captain Toad

On the other hand, Shadow's chances are looking better than ever with A. a third party Echo and B. an Echo with at least two different moves.

 

[pupNapoleon]

I have this for now, I only made gravestones for the characters that had high chances or decent support, not all of them for obvious reasons.

Spoiler

View attachment 155802

I love the graphic you have made!
That said, I have a hard time thinking Bewear is the most popular outted Pokemon.
I would give that to Eevee, if Pokeball means they cannot get in.

We were also told some characters are now multiple purpose. Such as that Monster Hunter AT/ Boss.
I no longer see any of these things as flat out dismissal (though I understand that we have guidelines at the base of this thread).

 

[RileyXY1]

If this really is all of the stages, then all characters whose franchises don't already have a playable character are disconfirmed.

 

[Chandeelure]

I love the graphic you have made!
That said, I have a hard time thinking Bewear is the most popular outted Pokemon.
I would give that to Eevee, if Pokeball means they cannot get in.

We were also told some characters are now multiple purpose. Such as that Monster Hunter AT/ Boss.
I no longer see any of these things as flat out dismissal (though I understand that we have guidelines at the base of this thread).

Thanks!

Yeah, Bewear was kind of a biased pick, because I personally wanted it lol
But I also chose it thanks to that Minecraft Steve vs Bewear pic that a guy from the Pokemon anime tweeted before E3, some people thought that was a hint haha.

Spoiler

Hmm, about the AT/Boss thing, yeah, it technically means some characters can have multiple roles, but at the moment it's just an AT/Boss thing, not AT/Playable Character thing.

I will upload the new pic today, with Eevee, Starfy, Midna, Proto Man, Sukapon, Meowth and the popular characters that were disconfirmed during the 8/8 Direct.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

PeridotGX The absences list needs to be trimmed down a bit now we've got confirmation on a few of them.

Namely, Dark Samus, Ashley and Chrom.

(And Gardevoir survived round two)

 

[TBone06]

PeridotGX The absences list needs to be trimmed down a bit now we've got confirmation on a few of them.

Namely, Dark Samus, Ashley and Chrom.

(And Gardevoir survived round two)

Speaking of that list, I didn't see Isaac on it. Would he not be considered noticeably absent because he wasn't in Smash 4?

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Speaking of that list, I didn't see Isaac on it. Would he not be considered noticeably absent because he wasn't in Smash 4?

Yeah, it's only Smash 4 ones on that list.

Still, we haven't seen him yet so there's hope.

 

[Gallowglass]

I have this for now, I only made gravestones for the characters that had high chances or decent support, not all of them for obvious reasons.

Spoiler

View attachment 155802

I like the work being done. I do think Shovel Knight and Ashley should have a tombstone. Dampe from Ocarina of Time should be there overseeing it all. Just my personal opinion though.

 

[Chandeelure]

I made a version with Dampe and one without him.
PeridotGX , choose the one you prefer for the OP!

Spoiler

Also, the Monster Hunter thing is called Rathalos.

 

[PeridotGX]

I made a version with Dampe and one without him.
PeridotGX , choose the one you prefer for the OP!

Spoiler

View attachment 156633

View attachment 156635

Also, the Monster Hunter thing is called Rathalos.

Sorry for this very small nitpick, but Captain Toad technically isn't disconfirmed, assuming he's just a background character that could just not appear if playable. I doubt he's in, but still.

Still looks great though.

 

[Chandeelure]

Sorry for this very small nitpick, but Captain Toad technically isn't disconfirmed, assuming he's just a background character that could just not appear if playable. I doubt he's in, but still.

Still looks great though.

Thanks!

Hmm... that kinda sounds like grasping at straws IMO, but it doesn't matter haha, here it is:

 

[Erimir]

I guess this isn't dispositive, but Lip's Stick is confirmed as a returning item (one of Richter's screenshots). You can always point to Screw Attack to say that she could still be in, but it certainly seems less likely.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I guess this isn't dispositive, but Lip's Stick is confirmed as a returning item (one of Richter's screenshots). You can always point to Screw Attack to say that she could still be in, but it certainly seems less likely.

Best way to look at it. We don't have an example of a signature weapon debuting before there playable character. It's either been the same time(Ness is only a partial example, as his bat and the home-run bat use the same generic design in SSB64, but he doesn't have a proper signature weapon like, say Link. It's literally just a move. And the Home Run-Bat's most powerful move is a Smash attack... which only Ness' Bat is used as a Smash Attack. The only other point to note is that Ness was shown off with Bat in artwork. But let's remember that Ganondorf was shown off with his sword but never used it in Melee. It's a tech-demo sword, but the point stands that signature weapons are more or less a key focus of their moveset anyway, not a single move).

We have had an item debut that a character uses before the character(Pitfall for Villager), but in this case... it's not remotely a "signature item" for him. Literally the only one missing in Smash is the Fishing Rod at this point, and it simply wasn't used because there were other items that took priority(though it could've at least been a Tether Recovery when pressing R in the air, and if it doesn't hit anything, grabs a random fish, I guess?), but at that point, it's not being used to any real potential other than "just for the sake of it".

This is the problem with the Lip's Stick. We don't have a proper comparison at all. Yet. I agree it doesn't disconfirm her too. As it's not the same thing as her being an AT.

As for the Captain Toad thing, Cosmic is right. We didn't have a stage first appear with a character cameo before that character's game debut(well, in a direct, etc. I mean, yeah, King Dedede is in Dream Land, but it wasn't featured in Smash 4 either before his debut was shown, so...). While seeing them as a background piece does not outright say it's impossible, it does show that Sakurai seems to already have a core plan for the character. It's the same reason why the "AT's can be playable via DLC" isn't really something good to bank on. One reason is Brawl notes that they're characters who didn't make the playable cut and were given a specific role due to that. It may be a fan-rule, but it makes a lot of sense. Sakurai plans things ahead. When we see a role for a character that was never playable, it's likely their main role to begin with(though they can have other cameos, he hasn't really changed that they're still not playable in that game). Thus, it's often best to look at the idea that if they're on a stage already, they probably aren't getting in till a later game. Same with AT's/Pokeballs. Nothing wrong with having hope or hoping Sakurai does something new with his ideas, of course, just to keep your expectations in check.

 

[StarDustStorm]

Best way to look at it. We don't have an example of a signature weapon debuting before there playable character. It's either been the same time(Ness is only a partial example, as his bat and the home-run bat use the same generic design in SSB64, but he doesn't have a proper signature weapon like, say Link. It's literally just a move. And the Home Run-Bat's most powerful move is a Smash attack... which only Ness' Bat is used as a Smash Attack. The only other point to note is that Ness was shown off with Bat in artwork. But let's remember that Ganondorf was shown off with his sword but never used it in Melee. It's a tech-demo sword, but the point stands that signature weapons are more or less a key focus of their moveset anyway, not a single move).

We have had an item debut that a character uses before the character(Pitfall for Villager), but in this case... it's not remotely a "signature item" for him. Literally the only one missing in Smash is the Fishing Rod at this point, and it simply wasn't used because there were other items that took priority(though it could've at least been a Tether Recovery when pressing R in the air, and if it doesn't hit anything, grabs a random fish, I guess?), but at that point, it's not being used to any real potential other than "just for the sake of it".

This is the problem with the Lip's Stick. We don't have a proper comparison at all. Yet. I agree it doesn't disconfirm her too. As it's not the same thing as her being an AT.

As for the Captain Toad thing, Cosmic is right. We didn't have a stage first appear with a character cameo before that character's game debut(well, in a direct, etc. I mean, yeah, King Dedede is in Dream Land, but it wasn't featured in Smash 4 either before his debut was shown, so...). While seeing them as a background piece does not outright say it's impossible, it does show that Sakurai seems to already have a core plan for the character. It's the same reason why the "AT's can be playable via DLC" isn't really something good to bank on. One reason is Brawl notes that they're characters who didn't make the playable cut and were given a specific role due to that. It may be a fan-rule, but it makes a lot of sense. Sakurai plans things ahead. When we see a role for a character that was never playable, it's likely their main role to begin with(though they can have other cameos, he hasn't really changed that they're still not playable in that game). Thus, it's often best to look at the idea that if they're on a stage already, they probably aren't getting in till a later game. Same with AT's/Pokeballs. Nothing wrong with having hope or hoping Sakurai does something new with his ideas, of course, just to keep your expectations in check.

Death's Scythe from Castlevania appears as an item but still not a good example, though he appears in the Simon Trailer. However other characters has used Death's Scythe outisde of Smash Bros.