Super Mario RPG Mafia: Hilt lynched, Town wins!

[DtJ Hilt]

I went back and looked at Red Ryu's claim. I don't know how to take the information of Mario for sure being in this game. He didn't say that Mario was confirmed town. Judging from the theme of the mafia members so far, Mario being in the mafia wouldn't make sense, but him being the independent is still likely.

I don't like how Bardull, in response to Zac's claim request, just did a name claim, not his character. And while he did claim doctor, he claimed doctor after every single other player had claimed/flipped. A safe doctor claim is extremely powerful and believable. Perhaps he was waiting to make sure I didn't claim doctor before he did, and had a backup claim just in case. YesterDay I was sold on Bardull's claim, partially due to lingering scum vibes from a few day phases ago on UTD.

Question, Bardull. Could you explain more about this gift? Who gave it to whom?

As for your question on if I have any idea of what's going on, just look at everything. I don't particularly like delving into "I think this faction killed this guy!" talk, because it rarely tends to go anywhere productive.. but considering we've had one night phase with two deaths, and all of the others having one or none at all, dying out completely when the third mafia member died, I strongly, strongly doubt that there are A) more than the three mafia members we've killed, or B) a third consistent killing role. Pierce's Vigilante ability was not 1 shot. Having a third reliable killing role could have the game end with town losing in two day phases (even if one of the the vigilante or serial killer were killed off N1, or one of the night kills fail for whatever reason), in a 13 man game! I doubt OS would do something this stupid.

Here's what I think. Either there are no independents and it's a fourth mafia member who failed in his last kill (and most likely a role blocker who's been stopping Pierce's kills), or we're against an independent with either a funky win condition (such as lyncher) or some way to manipulate kills (redirector, busdriver, etc, which would explain why neither of the people that died N1 were Pierce's target (to my knowledge this was the case, correct me if I'm wrong)). My money's on the latter.

Does any of this really matter? Nope. This is the last day phase. The opposing team of whomever we lynch tonight will win.

I have had very little sleep. Pardon me if I don't make another post for quite a few hours. We still have plenty of the day phase left, but we don't have to drag it out too long. I don't know who my vote's going to be on yet, and I'd like to hear opinions from the two of you first on what you think about each of your two lynch options.

 

[BarDulL]

i'm 99% certain redryu confirmed mario as town.

omni presumably sent me the gift; i was only informed that "someone" sent me the gift and omni had me confirm that he sent it to me during D4 or D5. can't remember when it was. the gift is a 1-shot BP. idk whether or not it has been used yet.

 

[BarDulL]

i'd like to confirm night actions starting with hilt, then myself, then zac.

 

[BarDulL]

Mario is in this Game, Bowyer is not which is why I tunneled Kryz about this because he kept speculating about that person a lot.

The four other characters are not all who they seem, meaning scum is using some of them for safe claims.

I crumbed this already if you look at my responses to Chibo and see how I said Mario was a town role while the others were not guaranteed town. Bowyer was my talk with Kryz about it so there is no point in hiding it if someone looked back and read it.

quoted for reference

 

[UTDZac]

#1215 is the best post I found in response to Mario being a "confirmed town role."

Ninja'd ><

 

[DtJ Hilt]

Look at the post he's referring to. He never says that his role PM said that Mario is a town role. He said that he breadcrumbed that Mario was a town role, but not that this information was confirmed.

Also unless they claim Mario I'm not auto assuming their claim is town if they claim a protagonist.

You think Mario would be a safe claim for scum?

This is what he was talking about. As far as I can see, there's no reason to clear Mario as confirmed town based on what RR said.

So you were.. given a bulletproof vest from mafia?

I used my ability on each odd night. N1, N3, N5.

 

[BarDulL]

i protected zac last Night.

and yes. omni gave me a bulletproof vest.

and uh, maybe you misread what RR wrote, but he clearly states that, unless someone claims mario, he won't believe they're town immediately even if they claim a protagonist (he is referring to geno/mallow/peach/bowser).

 

[UTDZac]

I tracked BarDull and saw him visit me last night.

If BarDull is the last scum, why would he target me twice on consecutive nights? I didn't die from it or get role-blocked.

 

[BarDulL]

zac, curiously, why didn't you track hilt?

 

[UTDZac]

It honestly didn't matter who I tracked last night. There wasn't going to be a night kill.

 

[UTDZac]

To elaborate, let's assume Hilt is lying and is the last scum (and can NK). He knows I'm a tracker and there's a chance I'll track him. He also knows BarDull is the Doctor, so if he tries to NK me or Bardull he might fail. 50/50 chance he wins during the night. Instead he could wait til the next Day, given he felt he had a strong chance of not being lynched, to convince town to lynch the wrong guy.

Similarly, Bardull could be lying. He could take a risk hitting Hilt or he could just kill me. We know I didn't die last night, even though I saw Bardull visit me (and why would he visit me twice in two consecutive nights anyways). Therefore Bardull isn't a killer.

Also, it's likely that the fourth scum is just a mafia goon that cannot kill. There might not be an indie at all (so unlike OS but w/e).

 

[BarDulL]

pass the wine

more importantly though, are there still doubts about mario being confirmed town?

 

[UTDZac]

Mario is in this Game, Bowyer is not which is why I tunneled Kryz about this because he kept speculating about that person a lot.

The four other characters are not all who they seem, meaning scum is using some of them for safe claims.

I crumbed this already if you look at my responses to Chibo and see how I said Mario was a town role while the others were not guaranteed town. Bowyer was my talk with Kryz about it so there is no point in hiding it if someone looked back and read it.

I forgot about this, I only remembered that the main characters may not be who they seemed to be. I didn't realize he removed Mario from that list of main characters.

Vote: Hilt

 

[BarDulL]

this is proof that i am town.

 

[BarDulL]

hilt, where you at? what's your take on the situation?

 

[UTDZac]

Hilt, out of curiosity, did you breadcrumb your role?

 

[UTDZac]

Did a reread on Hilt. Found these posts of interest:

#380 - "I did not like his quick jump onto T-Block early in the game"

#491 / #530 - There seems to be a lot of communication between Hilt and Shaya/Omni. Hilt's been pretty inactive and his scum buddies sure have noticed, asking him questions and all.

#566 - This post was made prior to RR claiming and sharing his information. Read the quote in this post and the portion below it. Quite interesting don't you think?

#1411 - Doesn't like the idea of a Shaya lynch.

#1447 - Just interesting that Shaya votes me right after Hilt does. Remember, at this point, the biggest reason they have for lynching me is my inactivity.

#1613 - Not really relevant but I found it awkward anyway. This was after I claimed tracker/watcher.

#1624 - Hilt states "consider us at LyLo with two lynches" as if he knows what's up (ie, he knows the last scum can't kill)

Another thing I found interesting about Hilt is how he jumps from Krsy to Pado to Pierce quickly and effortlessly.

 

[DtJ Hilt]

hilt, where you at? what's your take on the situation?

I just found out that smashboards was back up. Post coming from me tonight. Agreeing with the points on Bardull being town. Actually, he's obviously town because otherwise he could just quickvote after UTD did.

Did a reread on Hilt. Found these posts of interest:

#380 - "I did not like his quick jump onto T-Block early in the game"

Do you even remember what it was I'm talking about? RR calls T-Block out on bull early in the game off of some unreliable meta that he came up with. It was scummy of him and I did not like it.

#491 / #530 - There seems to be a lot of communication between Hilt and Shaya/Omni. Hilt's been pretty inactive and his scum buddies sure have noticed, asking him questions and all.

A lot of communication between me and Omni? He asked me one question. Also if this wasn't the case, wonder if you would accuse me of distancing, instead. Hmm.

#566 - This post was made prior to RR claiming and sharing his information. Read the quote in this post and the portion below it. Quite interesting don't you think?

????

Now you're pulling stuff out of your ***. Like you said, this was before RR's claim. He says that if Mario claims, he would immediately believe it. None of us know why. We don't know the information he does. How is this "interesting" or scummy of me? Please explain. I've been in several games where main characters have been used as fake claims. Him saying this sounded incredibly naive at the time. I have no idea why it wouldn't.

#1411 - Doesn't like the idea of a Shaya lynch.

Do not twist my words, Zac. I said I do not like the idea of a Shaya lynch today. His lynch was not going to happen, and I would have more so preferred your lynch or Krys' before his. The two of you were more scummy. Problem? Not only that, but Pado's lynch was much more likely to happen, with the short amount of time we had left. Even though I wasn't much of a fan.

#1447 - Just interesting that Shaya votes me right after Hilt does. Remember, at this point, the biggest reason they have for lynching me is my inactivity.

No, the fact that you stayed inactive, tried to throw us a bone with a "tin man's scum and I'll tell you why some day", only to come back with the weakest reasoning I've seen, is why my vote was on you. Also, you're forgetting that the day phase was ending at this time. Votes had to be made.

#1613 - Not really relevant but I found it awkward anyway. This was after I claimed tracker/watcher.

The day
phase starts, you vote for pierce, and you think it's awkward that I called you out on it? Really? You gave absolutely no reasoning for why you were voting for pierce, which is barely less reasoning than you gave when calling Tin Man scum. The fact that you add this into your hollow case is hilarious.

#1624 - Hilt states "consider us at LyLo with two lynches" as if he knows what's up (ie, he knows the last scum can't kill)

What I found interesting was how much you didn't believe it. Also, have you ever heard of a "last scum" that can't kill? Does that fit with the flavor, or am I missing something? Because I've never seen anything like this in a game. I've seen instances where only one member of mafia can kill, but that would have been the mafia boss if anything, and he was the first of scum to die. Your kill failed last night, didn't it? You expected it to work, which is why you were so shocked at my "two lynches" post.

Another thing I found interesting about Hilt is how he jumps from Krsy to Pado to Pierce quickly and effortlessly.

Please show examples. Unless we're talking about two different things, my "jump" on Pado was me talking theoretically about what town should do with about a day left in the phase. And I have no idea what you're talking about with me jumping on Pierce effortlessly.

I never saw the point in breadcrumbing a role. Scum knows their fake claims at the beginning of the game, always. They can breadcrumb their fake claim just as easily as town can breadcrumb their town role. It does nothing. So no, I've never breadcrumbed my role in any game.

This is not all from me, but it's all for now (unless Bardull decides to end the game, haha). But since Bardull is now definitely town, there's no reason for me not to vote UTD.

Vote: UTD_Zac

I'd definitely like to hear your opinions on things, Bardull. Lynch is up to you.

 

[UTDZac]

Just to be clear, I'm not voting you because of the case I made in my #1657. That was all just stuff I dug up while doing a re-read on you.

I'm voting for you because their are three people left in this game: one is me, one is mario, and one is you. I believe mario is town doctor (since, ya know, he targeted me twice without killing me) and you are the last scum.

 

[BarDulL]

brb tomorrow, flipping a coin.

 

[UTDZac]

Really!?

This game's been going on for months and you're gonna end it with a coin flip?

 

[BarDulL]

ok, that might be a little anti climactic.

well, how i see it, zac is my scum pick, but hilt is the logical choice to lynch. hilt can't prove his abilities whereas Zac has proven his ability use. Zac's behavior is odd throughout the game up until his play shifts dramatically once he gambits Shaya. however, we're running on the assumption that the last scum is indy since mafia wouldn't kill their own team mates (assuming pierce wasn't lying to us.) this being the case, the odd shift in play from zac has to be spurred from himself, and thus it is essentially a null read. hilt has been playing pro-town for the majority of the game, and effectively so, but he hasn't proven his ability use, and there's the question of "why didn't pierce kill hilt on N1, yet t-block died?" does zac actually have the ability to redirect kills along with watch/track movements? i suppose it would make sense to have that ability since redirecting night actions could be an important asset for knowing who to redirect.

...

i mean, ultimately, it's not an easy choice no matter how i look at it.

 

[BarDulL]

i suppose it would make sense to have that ability since watching/tracking night actions could be a helpful asset for knowing who to redirect.

fixed.

well, either way, i'm going to do a reread soon. going to be v/la for a couple days.

 

[UTDZac]

Out of curiosity, BarDull, if I was the last scum, how do you think I win the game? I have no NK, or I would have attempted to use it on Hilt last Night (cause why not, 50/50 chance I win or nothing happens). Hilt told us he did Odd nights, so I would have killed him N6 and the game would be over.

Since I don't have a NK then my win condition would be survivor or something along those lines, but the rules state there are no survivors.

Am I the last mafia? A mafia with the ability to track and watch (which I've proven I can both watch/track people). Why would mafia have this + a JoaT (I only say this cause normally i see JoaT with a one-shot watch/track ability)? And just throwing this out there: if Hilt is the last town and I'm a mafia tracker/watcher, then the only people I could effectively track are you (doc) and Pierce (vig).

 

[BarDulL]

zac, you keep mentioning that the last scum is mafia, but why can't it be an indy?

 

[UTDZac]

At this point im assuming the last scum is hilt and he's a mafia goon that cant kill. That's why. I don't actually know, before today I really thought the last person was indie, cause that made the most sense. Now I really think there are 4 mafia in this 13 person game (even though it's unlike OS).

 

[BarDulL]

why? pierce said someone was redirecting his kills even after the busdriver died. does the mafia goon have the ability to redirect kills?

 

[BarDulL]

if so, why would mafia goon kill mafia?

 

[UTDZac]

I don't know. I have no idea what's going on.

 

[DtJ Hilt]

That's a good point. There's no reason for why a mafia member died two nights ago. Like you pointed out, UTD, Pierce wasn't on two nights ago for the whole night. Two mafia members had died, and the other one died last night. You seem set on the fact that there isn't an independent alignment, but there's no other way mafia could have died that night.

 

[UTDZac]

Last night? No one died last night, nor the night before. I don't know how or why Omni died. Maybe he killed himself?

 

[UTDZac]

Oh, and the reason I asked about you breadcrumb is because I saw this post where you used the term "digging" in your last sentence. Probably just coincidence.

 

[BarDulL]

 

[BarDulL]

nope, i'm totally confused.

zac, didn't you acknowledge the existence of an independent earlier on? why are you saying hilt is mafia now?

 

[UTDZac]

EBWOP: And to clarify, if you really were Dyna, the mole, I would think something would have clicked in your head when writing that post. That's why I found it weird you didn't breadcrumb.

But that's going out on a huge limb, was just sharing thoughts.

 

[UTDZac]

@Bardull, I'll answer that question after you answer mine in #1666. What win condition do you think the last scum has?

And where did I acknowledge an indie?

 

[BarDulL]

Wouldn't it be the independent that would be scared of a mass claim, since he's more easily outed?

I already told you I'm a tracker/watcher.

If you guys want to kill me after a mass claim, I'm fine with that. I'd just like to share my points if you plan to kill me off first (so when I flip town watcher/tracker you'll know what to do).

We have indie and mafia as killing roles, who is the third?

What I'm really upset about is tin man getting mod killed. yesterday I was going to lynch pierce then have you guys lynch me today. I knew at that time that both mario and geno had not claimed, and if they did it would give town a strong reason to kill me and pierce. But now its going to come down to who do you believe more

These are the posts that come to mind...

 

[UTDZac]

In my #1666 i said "before today I really thought the last person was indie, cause that made the most sense."

Then I said toDay I knew Hilt as the last scum and he was mafia goon.

Now I'm saying I don't know. I really don't know what's going on. And I don't know how I'd figure it out if I was in your shoes cause this is an OS game and weird stuff is always out there.

 

[BarDulL]

There's a lot of whacky stuff going on. I've analyzed all the information and tried to come up with something conclusive, but to no avail.

I know with certainty that there is an independent. Omni was killed N4 when Pierce presumably targeted Tinman.

If Pierce lied about being redirected, I will be extremely pissed. -_-

That said, a mafia goon doesn't really make sense. Who redirected Pierce's kill to Omni? A mafia player would not do this, and with the information we have available...the only logical conclusion is that an independent is responsible.

That, and no one died the previous two Nights.

 

[BarDulL]

Gentlemen, I think I've come to a decision.

*proceeds to grab a coin*