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That's interesting. What did Emily say about Golden Sun?Nope not really. No one has really touched us to be honest. Well...aside from Emily Rogers. She posted on twitter the day of the smash direct that she wanted an HD Luigi's mansion game, (very shortly after we had the main direct with Luigi's mansion 3...) and in the same thread spoke about Golden Sun.
Honestly, if this was faked, then the person is guilty of identity theft- they could seriously damage the person they impersonated's career. Should this be faked, it's they only fake that has moved into criminal territory that I can think of in gaming.Honestly a part of me is beyond baffled at the thought that a fake leaker might not only have gone to all the trouble they did but they also specifically created banners for a skylight display and then impersonated someone who would be working at a company that (from what I've learned) works with furniture design and video game displays (assassins creed) so they would potentially be the ones creating the display for these banners. (in which case they'd need access to the banners for testing purposes)
If it's something that anyone can do why have we never seen something on this scale before? I don't think we've ever seen a fake leak that even comes anywhere close to being this detailed and multi layered.
It seems like the far more straightforward and less ridiculous explanation is that it's real.
This is 100% the analysis that we needed and lays down things on the table on what really matters and how this leak is as genuine as it gets. Thanks so much dude, you did godlike work with this analysis.So, I've been thinking about the Grinch leak for a while, and I'd like to break down and analyze some of it.
First, though, I would like to cut down on some of the flaws of the pro-Grinch argument:
We don't know that this is true. There is, as yet, no confirmation that this company contracts with either Bandai-Namco or Universal Studios, let alone both. While the company he worked for a year ago did contract with Bandai-Namco, the one he currently works for may or may not. Also, this argument fails to consider that Bandai-Namco would not be handling publicity, Nintendo would, since they are the publisher.
Now, as we get to the rest of it, we need to approach the leak logically. Following Occam's Razor, let's simplify things as much as possible. What must be faked in order to pull of this leak?
The answer is actually ridiculously simple. The only thing that needs to be faked is the Super Smash Bros. Ultimate material. Everything else can be genuine. The leak could actually have been created by someone who works for a publicity company and makes these sorts of promotional materials. The material for The Grinch could all be genuine, as could his work history with the company. As the meme says "anyone can make a fake leak". Even a publicist. There does not need to be any identity theft or identity fraud for this to be faked. Not even the Snapchat aspect of it was necessarily faked. It could have been something that he sent a friend via Snapchat, never meaning for it to go further and his name to be revealed (though that would mean all of this was created to fool one or two people, which does seem rather farfetched).
The only things that needed to be faked were the actual Super Smash Bros. Ultimate materials. So, let's look at them for a second.
View attachment 172845
This is the image that has received the most attention, specifically the multi panel image in the middle. This image, apparently depicting a version of the Battlefield background used in the Mural but with the characters removed, has been reviewed in detail by a number of artists and digital arts enthusiasts, most notably ArtsyOmni, whose video on the subject can be found here.
I, however, am not an enthusiast or expert in digital art manipulation, nor of artistic techniques or analysis. So I will leave that to those who are.
Instead, I will focus on other, less analyzed aspects of the leaked materials, which I do have experience with.
Beneath the "LOL" emoji is what appears to be a set of display instructions for a circular hanging display. The display would contain the mural, wrapped into a circle (taking advantage of the fact that the mural's edges merge seamlessly), and suspended from four lines that converge at a single hanging point. This makes it clear that this is a display to be hung from the ceiling, and that the mural image would go on the outside of it.
Now, here is where things get interesting. It has been pointed out by some that the Mural image on this hanging display is not properly scaled, and that the mural would not fit on the display as shown. Whomever has made such an argument is an individual whom I can only assume has never had to set up a retail display, or at least, never actually looked at the instructions for doing so. Because, as someone who has set up dozens, and reviewed the instructions for probably hundreds over the course of seven years work in retail, I can assure you that the instructions for those displays are NEVER properly scaled. Or properly clipped. Or properly angled. Or properly sized. Or properly representative of the space you actually HAVE on a display to put the items they're telling you will fit there. Or-
Ahem. Apologies. Anyway, the point is, the instruction pages that come with display materials are designed to show you how to assemble them, how to display them, and what to put where. They are never artistically accurate. Literally, NEVER. The only ones I have seen which are accurate in terms of visuals are ones which are simply pictures taken of already assembled displays (which are inferior for the purposes of showing how to assemble such displays to the simple line drawings with cutouts).
The reasoning for the art being off is actually very simple: It's nothing but a placeholder, and it's only purpose is to convey to you what side should face out, or to help confirm which piece you're looking for. Frequently (though not always), if the item being displayed is a book, magazine, or game (anything with a definitive "front") the picture will be skipped entirely, and instead replaced with a simple display of the title in block text. The images which do show up are usually minimal effort. Low quality images, taken from a camera, badly shoved into place, and then clipped to fit the block lines. Sometimes they will be perspective shifted to match the angle of the display. Sometimes not. Sometimes they'll be perspective shifted to NOT match at all (which can be really infuriating to see from someone with mild OCD about clean displays).
Scrolling down, we then see the three panel display. It has been said that these are for a light box display, and that would explain the low quality and color shifting of the art. I do not disagree or argue the point that a light box display would need to be altered in such a way. From personal experience, it would, though I cannot say what the result would be. However, I would argue that the image in question is simply too small to be used effectively for such a purpose. The light box displays I've worked with in the past are frequently quite large, and this one is roughly the size of a single sheet of paper for a three panel display. No. In actuality, this is another page of display instructions. While it is probably display instructions for such a light box, its purpose is merely to highlight which panel goes in which part of the display, to assure that the panels are in order and properly displayed.
And before you ask, the answer is yes. Such instructions do indeed assume that you are a moron who cannot tell which parts of a continuous display image go where just from looking at them.
Below that, we have further block diagrams, including some empty boxes which could be filled with instructions, more photos, or information specific to a particular store or outlet as this material is distributed.
So this entire image is actually a picture of display instructions for promotional material, rather than promotional material itself.
View attachment 172856
This image, on the other hand, which I have yet to see be artistically analyzed at all, is itself promotional material.
It's a packaged display of a circular item. It appears to be a wristband, due to both the size and the taper at the end. You can also see a faint outline of those same hanging instructions in this image, above the wristband, that looks as though it's being shown through a blank sheet of paper. The wristband appears very professionally produced, with properly scaled images placed correctly on the wristband.
So, after reviewing these images, the only conclusion I can come to is that this is 100% genuine. Artistic anomalies in the instructions are expected. In fact, I would be honestly shocked if they were not there. This gentleman's role in the company likely includes either review of materials, or assembly of the instructions themselves. The images used were likely taken by a worker at this company (if not the gentleman in question), on a low quality camera, and jumbled and edited into place to fit the lines and serve their bare purpose of being a placeholder (they were almost assuredly NOT provided by Nintendo). Any artistic analysis of those pieces is utterly irrelevant to the validity of the leak.
@papagenos @Billybae10K - This might be something you guys would want to review.
Your in-depth review was really good. In all honesty, I was kind of confused by all the noise this leak seems to produce and how many points you have to keep track of and the story that surrounds it. Since day one some people did say it was for the light display, but then many said it was for a wristband. Then the light display was brought back for further speculation after we got sidetracked by a multitude of other revelations about the background. It's like getting tunnel vision plus a lot of fog while trying to keep it all in your head. Your review makes me feel like I guess it could be for both a wristband and a light display. They could be doing more than one promotional item.So, I've been thinking about the Grinch leak for a while, and I'd like to break down and analyze some of it.
First, though, I would like to cut down on some of the flaws of the pro-Grinch argument:
We don't know that this is true. There is, as yet, no confirmation that this company contracts with either Bandai-Namco or Universal Studios, let alone both. While the company he worked for a year ago did contract with Bandai-Namco, the one he currently works for may or may not. Also, this argument fails to consider that Bandai-Namco would not be handling publicity, Nintendo would, since they are the publisher.
Now, as we get to the rest of it, we need to approach the leak logically. Following Occam's Razor, let's simplify things as much as possible. What must be faked in order to pull of this leak?
The answer is actually ridiculously simple. The only thing that needs to be faked is the Super Smash Bros. Ultimate material. Everything else can be genuine. The leak could actually have been created by someone who works for a publicity company and makes these sorts of promotional materials. The material for The Grinch could all be genuine, as could his work history with the company. As the meme says "anyone can make a fake leak". Even a publicist. There does not need to be any identity theft or identity fraud for this to be faked. Not even the Snapchat aspect of it was necessarily faked. It could have been something that he sent a friend via Snapchat, never meaning for it to go further and his name to be revealed (though that would mean all of this was created to fool one or two people, which does seem rather farfetched).
The only things that needed to be faked were the actual Super Smash Bros. Ultimate materials. So, let's look at them for a second.
View attachment 172845
This is the image that has received the most attention, specifically the multi panel image in the middle. This image, apparently depicting a version of the Battlefield background used in the Mural but with the characters removed, has been reviewed in detail by a number of artists and digital arts enthusiasts, most notably ArtsyOmni, whose video on the subject can be found here.
I, however, am not an enthusiast or expert in digital art manipulation, nor of artistic techniques or analysis. So I will leave that to those who are.
Instead, I will focus on other, less analyzed aspects of the leaked materials, which I do have experience with.
Beneath the "LOL" emoji is what appears to be a set of display instructions for a circular hanging display. The display would contain the mural, wrapped into a circle (taking advantage of the fact that the mural's edges merge seamlessly), and suspended from four lines that converge at a single hanging point. This makes it clear that this is a display to be hung from the ceiling, and that the mural image would go on the outside of it.
Now, here is where things get interesting. It has been pointed out by some that the Mural image on this hanging display is not properly scaled, and that the mural would not fit on the display as shown. Whomever has made such an argument is an individual whom I can only assume has never had to set up a retail display, or at least, never actually looked at the instructions for doing so. Because, as someone who has set up dozens, and reviewed the instructions for probably hundreds over the course of seven years work in retail, I can assure you that the instructions for those displays are NEVER properly scaled. Or properly clipped. Or properly angled. Or properly sized. Or properly representative of the space you actually HAVE on a display to put the items they're telling you will fit there. Or-
Ahem. Apologies. Anyway, the point is, the instruction pages that come with display materials are designed to show you how to assemble them, how to display them, and what to put where. They are never artistically accurate. Literally, NEVER. The only ones I have seen which are accurate in terms of visuals are ones which are simply pictures taken of already assembled displays (which are inferior for the purposes of showing how to assemble such displays to the simple line drawings with cutouts).
The reasoning for the art being off is actually very simple: It's nothing but a placeholder, and its only purpose is to convey to you what side should face out, or to help confirm which piece you're looking for. Frequently (though not always), if the item being displayed is a book, magazine, or game (anything with a definitive "front") the picture will be skipped entirely, and instead replaced with a simple display of the title in block text. The images which do show up are usually minimal effort. Low quality images, taken from a camera, badly shoved into place, and then clipped to fit the block lines. Sometimes they will be perspective shifted to match the angle of the display. Sometimes not. Sometimes they'll be perspective shifted to NOT match at all (which can be really infuriating to see from someone with mild OCD about clean displays).
Scrolling down, we then see the three panel display. It has been said that these are for a light box display, and that would explain the low quality and color shifting of the art. I do not disagree or argue the point that a light box display would need to be altered in such a way. From personal experience, it would, though I cannot say what the result would be. However, I would argue that the image in question is simply too small to be used effectively for such a purpose. The light box displays I've worked with in the past are frequently quite large, and this one is roughly the size of a single sheet of paper for a three panel display. No. In actuality, this is another page of display instructions. While it is probably display instructions for such a light box, its purpose is merely to highlight which panel goes in which part of the display, to assure that the panels are in order and properly displayed.
And before you ask, the answer is yes. Such instructions do indeed assume that you are a moron who cannot tell which parts of a continuous display image go where just from looking at them.
Below that, we have further block diagrams, including some empty boxes which could be filled with instructions, more photos, or information specific to a particular store or outlet as this material is distributed.
So this entire image is actually a picture of display instructions for promotional material, rather than promotional material itself.
View attachment 172856
This image, on the other hand, which I have yet to see be artistically analyzed at all, is itself promotional material.
It's a packaged display of a circular item. It appears to be a wristband, due to both the size and the taper at the end. You can also see a faint outline of those same hanging instructions in this image, above the wristband, that looks as though it's being shown through a blank sheet of paper. The wristband appears very professionally produced, with properly scaled images placed correctly on the wristband.
So, after reviewing these images, the only conclusion I can come to is that this is 100% genuine. Artistic anomalies in the instructions are expected. In fact, I would be honestly shocked if they were not there. This gentleman's role in the company likely includes either review of materials, or assembly of the instructions themselves. The images used were likely taken by a worker at this company (if not the gentleman in question), on a low quality camera, and jumbled and edited into place to fit the lines and serve their bare purpose of being a placeholder (they were almost assuredly NOT provided by Nintendo). Any artistic analysis of those pieces is utterly irrelevant to the validity of the leak.
@papagenos @Billybae10K - This might be something you guys would want to review.
Impressive dude! Makes me want to see what's your general art like, I take it you draw a lot?I tried figuring out Isaacs pose in the supposed leak, maybe I will brush it up if i am motivated!
Wondered where I should post this, so i figured here would be fitting, since i was lurking here for a while
Sakurai trolling us with a statement implying less newcomers than we're gonna get, and it's just more punctuated by the implied Box Theory + Ken/Incineroar combo?Does anyone think when Sakurai said "I'm kinda hoping you aren't expecting too many new challengers." he meant more along the lines of "I hope we can still surprise you."? Or is it just me?
Definitely to surprise us. I know I've said it several times in this thread, but one of the best sales tactics you can ever do is, "under promise, over deliver". And with what we're seeing in this leak, that's exactly what Sakurai is/has been doing this whole time. I couldn't have asked for a better newcomer lineup! This truly over delivers!Does anyone think when Sakurai said "I'm kinda hoping you aren't expecting too many new challengers." he meant more along the lines of "I hope we can still surprise you."? Or is it just me?
I'm still holding out for maybe an alt character a la Robin/Corrin/Olimar/BowserJr. But I would be fine if he's not in. Can't forget our primary goal: Playable Isaac and Golden Sun representation!So how do you guys feel there is no Felix echo?
A GAME Theory. Thanks for -shot-What if insiders saw a screenshot of Ken vs Incineroar in an animated reveal trailer, but Incineroar ends up defeated and returns to his Pokeball. Kind of like how Chrom was defeated by Captain Falcon. It would explain why insiders are so adamant about Incineroar being playable. It's just a theory though.
Better watch now out if Waluigi's anywhere nearby.I might be a little late on this but someone on the comments section of youtube pointed out on the leaked banner/mural that isaac is next to isabelle and little mac, former assist trophies.
Shout out to QcSlayer Seven for pointing this out!
I might have to play Smash Flash 2 first on closer inspection of how Isaac would be interpreted to be in Smash according to the fanbase.Ah... well that feels a little redundant to bring up. Sorry.
Anyway... how good (or bad) do you think the Golden Boi would be? I think this is a question not asked often..? Like I'm curious what people predict and expect.
Edit: Caps lock.
Sounds like an attempt to change the subject.Sorry if this hasn't been covered already but what could this mean?
https://twitter.com/PushDustIn/status/1055967273482018816?s=19
Does this play in any way in our favour?
Well if they've heard something, their options are either share it, stay silent, or convey the outcome of the info without sharing the info itself. So, like, saying it's fake without being able to explain why. Which would require regurgitating the same relatively weak talking points we've heard all week. Gamexplain did this, and it really backfired on them. So that's not a good idea. The first seemingly is out of the question as well, as no one wants to expose their source. Hence option 2.Sounds like an attempt to change the subject.
It's kind of odd. Mainstream outlets like IGN and even Newsweek have run articles on this leak.
But people like YouTubers and other lesser tier information brokers are refusing to look at it.
We're starting to see the same type of insider work that ruined games journalism at play in the YouTube sphere. People are staying silent, refusing to cover things or investigate, because they don't want to lose precious access. They're becoming just propagandists for the companies, instead of reporters.
That's the thing. There's nothing of value being said.Well if they've heard something, their options are either share it, stay silent, or convey the outcome of the info without sharing the info itself. So, like, saying it's fake without being able to explain why. Which would require regurgitating the same relatively weak talking points we've heard all week. Gamexplain did this, and it really backfired on them. So that's not a good idea. The first seemingly is out of the question as well, as no one wants to expose their source. Hence option 2.
That said, didn't Sourcegaming do a whole discussion of this leak? I didn't watch it, but I remembering hearing little of value was actually said.
Actually you know what, I take this back. There's a very easy option four, which is to play dumb, and talk about it as if you didn't know anything. It's obviously what Gamexplain should've done.Well if they've heard something, their options are either share it, stay silent, or convey the outcome of the info without sharing the info itself. So, like, saying it's fake without being able to explain why. Which would require regurgitating the same relatively weak talking points we've heard all week. Gamexplain did this, and it really backfired on them. So that's not a good idea. The first seemingly is out of the question as well, as no one wants to expose their source. Hence option 2.
That said, didn't Sourcegaming do a whole discussion of this leak? I didn't watch it, but I remembering hearing little of value was actually said.
Agreed.Actually you know what, I take this back. There's a very easy option four, which is to play dumb, and talk about it as if you didn't know anything. It's obviously what Gamexplain should've done.
Thank you so much!I know I'm late but I think it's amazing.
However I do believe that Flint is under Isaac hand and that the yellow stuff over is hair is indeed is scarf, just like in official artwork.
(The white circles could also be flying rocks).
https://www.google.com/search?q=gol...AUIDigB&biw=1920&bih=966#imgrc=BR4xTUI9g_70kM:
Thank you so much! I believe someone did a drawing for the chorus kids already, and it's really difficult to figure out what the conductor is doing! Mach rider is complicated on another level, but maybe I'll try! As Isaac is my most wanted character since ever, and I'm really familiar with the character I just had to do it!ok .... THIS is great can you make one for chorus and mach rider please? you'r good
Thank you! Yeah, I draw quite a lot, in my job and privatly.Impressive dude! Makes me want to see what's your general art like, I take it you draw a lot?
There's no precedent this time, but it's happened in past Smash games.Something I was thinking about.
Let's assume for a second that the Grinch leak is fake.
MysticDistance (an insider) mentioned that there would be a trailer that includes two character reveals. Now some people are saying that it would be Ken and Incineroar, but that would be the first time two newcomers from different franchises appeared in a trailer together. It's not impossible but there's also no precedent for it.
What are the chances of the trailer MysticDistance is talking about being a reveal of both Isaac and Felix?
As someone that wants the leak to be real... nah I wouldn’t hate the leaker if it turned out to be fake. I’d celebrate them for making a fake leak that gave me the dream roster I didn’t know I wanted and also making so many people believe that it’s real.What do you think will happen if the leak is fake? Will people hate the leaker for getting our hopes up? Or will people hate Verge for being right about really underwhelming final reveals?
Those reveals weren't highly expensive CGI trailers, the stakes are different here. I'm not saying it's not possible (I mean for all we know the Grinch leak light be real and Sakurai plans on making the hypest CGI trailer yet with all 5 of them), I just think that it's highly unlikely. Ken, an echo fighter of an existing playable character with no link to Pokemon being in a CGI trailer at least.There's no precedent this time, but it's happened in past Smash games.
Can I be added to this list too? :DUpdated.
- _Sheik
- 1/128
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- *Verrix*
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Of course they were highly expensive CGI trailers, they were the reveal trailers of the past two games.Those reveals weren't highly expensive CGI trailers, the stakes are different here. I'm not saying it's not possible, I just think that it's highly unlikely. Ken, an echo fighter of an existing playable character with no link to Pokemon being in a CGI trailer at least.
One thing I've teased in my mind since the start of the leak (and yes I've been here in the sidelines, very exciting times for us adepts!) is possibly a grand trailer that'll tie into Spirits Mode of some kind. Like if it's some kind of Adventure Mode/Subspace Emissary, it'll start off with some kind of cutscene that features Isaac, Mach Rider and Chorus Men separately or the others crashing the other's fight in some way. Then afterwards, they stop fighting amongst each other when the antagonist of Spirits shows up and various other Nintendo heroes in the cutscene decide to lead the charge, then shows off more of them in the Spirits Mode.Something I was thinking about.
Let's assume for a second that the Grinch leak is fake.
MysticDistance (an insider) mentioned that there would be a trailer that includes two character reveals. Now some people are saying that it would be Ken and Incineroar, but that would be the first time two newcomers from different franchises appeared in a trailer together. It's not impossible but there's also no precedent for it.
What are the chances of the trailer MysticDistance is talking about being a reveal of both Isaac and Felix?
My bad, I assumed you were talking about Smash Brawl reveals, since they were done with in game footage.Of course they were highly expensive CGI trailers, they were the reveal trailers of the past two games.
Plus I didn't say it'd be Ken and Incineroar, that's just the most common theory. I also think it'd be weird for Ken to be in a CGI trailer, it really only made sense for Richter.