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Sunrise, Sunset - Isaac for Smash Ultimate #GoldenSunday

Chiroz

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I finished the analysis a while ago with help from half of Papa Geno's discord. My idea was that the smash banner's would have more differences if you used the one with empty slots from the Direct before they put in K rool and the others. We looked hard but we're not graphic designers, discrepancies were hard to find with out that sort of help lol.
I can send you the file with all that if you want. All versions of the banner are exactly identical. Before and after K Rool and Isabelle. You can see them all in my video and I switch between them, you can just pause the video and compare, they are exactly identical.
 

JustCallMeJon

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You know, the thing that struck me from the battlefield back ground is that they are missing certain stuff.

Then it hit me...the leaked image could be the early version of battlefield.

Prediction:
Eric is involved in the Marina printing company until 2016. That time, the Ultimate roster is finalized and is possibily in the early/mid stage of battlefield painting. It seems like before he quit or something, he seems to left out a list of code that is shown the top of the battlefield art. For some reason, someone possibly stole the code, find it, and print it out. This gives the reason why Eric refuse to answer the question of him being responsible. This also gave reason why the art does seem to look...incomplete. It may be because it is an early art.

That is my prediction, feel free to criticize it.
 
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THE TemporaryFool

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And Mach Rider. Say what you will about the other characters being easy to call, but I'm pretty sure Excite Bike had more supporters than Mach Rider. That's a Sakurai pick if I ever saw one imo.
Sakuri did consider Mach Rider for Melee, but ultimately never did because of the bike. I think, feel free to correct me.
 

jweb23

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You know, the thing that struck me from the battlefield back ground is that they are missing certain stuff.

Then it hit me...the leaked image could be the early version of battlefield.

Prediction:
Eric is involved in the Marina printing company until 2016. That time, the Ultimate roster is finalized and is possibily in the early/mid stage of battlefield painting. It seems like before he quit or something, he seems to left out a list of code that is shown the top of the battlefield art. For some reason, someone possibly stole the code, find it, and print it out. This gives the reason why Eric refuse to answer the question of him being responsible. This also gave reason why the art does seem to look...incomplete. It may be because it is an early art.

That is my prediction, feel free to criticize it.
That’s quite the tinfoil hat conspiracy you got there. Personally I hope you’re right because that leak being real would be the greatest Smash game ever! Fingers crossed.
 

TheSpaceKing12

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You know, the thing that struck me from the battlefield back ground is that they are missing certain stuff.

Then it hit me...the leaked image could be the early version of battlefield.

Prediction:
Eric is involved in the Marina printing company until 2016. That time, the Ultimate roster is finalized and is possibily in the early/mid stage of battlefield painting. It seems like before he quit or something, he seems to left out a list of code that is shown the top of the battlefield art. For some reason, someone possibly stole the code, find it, and print it out. This gives the reason why Eric refuse to answer the question of him being responsible. This also gave reason why the art does seem to look...incomplete. It may be because it is an early art.

That is my prediction, feel free to criticize it.
That is a very plausible explanation. Gematsu was also a real leak, and that was composed of outdated information as well. This suggestion would also explain why so many surface leakers claim Incinroar, and say this is fake as a result. Under this version of the events, Incinroar is in, but he was the lastest addition, put in after the initial roster was decided. That would bring the unique newcomer count to 11, which is STILL lowest in the series too.
 

Samcrumpit

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You know, the thing that struck me from the battlefield back ground is that they are missing certain stuff.

Then it hit me...the leaked image could be the early version of battlefield.

Prediction:
Eric is involved in the Marina printing company until 2016. That time, the Ultimate roster is finalized and is possibily in the early/mid stage of battlefield painting. It seems like before he quit or something, he seems to left out a list of code that is shown the top of the battlefield art. For some reason, someone possibly stole the code, find it, and print it out. This gives the reason why Eric refuse to answer the question of him being responsible. This also gave reason why the art does seem to look...incomplete. It may be because it is an early art.

That is my prediction, feel free to criticize it.
I'm still unsure of the leak, but I'm convinced that Isaac is in at this point.
 

Jupiter Ivan

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That is a very plausible explanation. Gematsu was also a real leak, and that was composed of outdated information as well. This suggestion would also explain why so many surface leakers claim Incinroar, and say this is fake as a result. Under this version of the events, Incinroar is in, but he was the lastest addition, put in after the initial roster was decided. That would bring the unique newcomer count to 11, which is STILL lowest in the series too.
Or... you know... Inciniroar was a red herring.
 

Skyblade12

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I can send you the file with all that if you want. All versions of the banner are exactly identical. Before and after K Rool and Isabelle. You can see them all in my video and I switch between them, you can just pause the video and compare, they are exactly identical.
Yet the version that showed up on the side of the van for the Wendy’s event apparently has a different background that matches the Grinch leak.
 

Chiroz

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Yet the version that showed up on the side of the van for the Wendy’s event apparently has a different background that matches the Grinch leak.
It doesn't. The van is using an outdated mural (before Isabelle). In the latest mural Megaman was moved upwards. That crystal was underneath his blaster, when he was moved upwards it is no longer underneath his blaster.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzc_E_mFq2k&feature=youtu.be

You only need to watch at 2:18 how Megaman moves, if you want just look at where his blaster is and you'll see the crystal appear.
 

SmashKeks

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Sakuri did consider Mach Rider for Melee, but ultimately never did because of the bike. I think, feel free to correct me.
I have heard this in defense of Mach, but in a way that only solidifies that it would be more of a Sakurai choice than a fan choice, giving credence to the notion that it's not an entirely fans-picked-the-roster game (If Inklings and Isabelle didn't already prove that.)
 

Skyblade12

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You really gotta catch up before you post these things. This has also been disproven several times over, the tour bus one is from the pre-Isabelle version where positioning was different.
I'm trying to stay caught up, but geez, this is moving fast.
 

THE TemporaryFool

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I have heard this in defense of Mach, but in a way that only solidifies that it would be more of a Sakurai choice than a fan choice, giving credence to the notion that it's not an entirely fans-picked-the-roster game (If Inklings and Isabelle didn't already prove that.)
That just depends on the character. Krool was included as a fan character. Your right about Inkling and Isabelle though.
 

Undella2

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This seems like a song that accurately represents the general feeling in this thread currently.
 

Chiroz

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I'm trying to stay caught up, but geez, this is moving fast.
Point is, background has never changed and all posts saying so are making the same mistake as the Megaman picture. They are looking at characters and their surroundings without being aware that ALL characters are moved on every single version. Literally all characters are moved upwards and made smaller on every version to make it look like they are farther away (that way they can fit more characters), because of this the things right next to the characters will look different between each version, but the background actually remains identical.

As I already mentioned, interestingly enough, the leak would be the first time characters don't shrink and don't get moved upwards and instead most characters retain their exact same positions. But I don't think that's a very strong point against it, just something to take note and keep in the back of your mind.
 

SmashKeks

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That just depends on the character. Krool was included as a fan character. Your right about Inkling and Isabelle though.
Oh for sure. The game is largely a tying up loose ends, wish fulfillment game, or at least it's shaping up to be. Ridley, Simon/Richter, K. Rool, and Isaac and Geno possibly on the horizon make that clear. Still, it does have some typical smash choices. Modern characters like Inklings and Isabelle, with many thinking a Spring Man DLC is very likely, and as stated, and odd ball/retro in Mach Rider, and we still have the Sakurai picks that weren't entirely motivated by fans.
 
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Skyblade12

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Point is, background has never changed and all posts saying so are making the same mistake as the Megaman picture. They are looking at characters and their surroundings without being aware that ALL characters are moved on every single version. Literally all characters are moved upwards and made smaller on every version to make it look like they are farther away (that way they can fit more characters), because of this the things right next to the characters will look different between each version, but the background actually remains identical.

As I already mentioned, interestingly enough, the leak would be the first time characters don't shrink and don't get moved upwards and instead most characters retain their exact same positions. But I don't think that's a very strong point against it, just something to take note and keep in the back of your mind.
I mean, honestly, I think trying to analyze blurry footage of a promotional item on an unknown material is futile and pointless, but you guys stick to your guns.

I do appreciate the effort, at least.
 
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Chiroz

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I mean, honestly, I think trying to analyze blurry footage of a promotional item on an unknown material is futile and pointless, but you guys stick to your guns.

I do appreciate the effort, at least.
The sad part is, the only reason I went so deep is because I wanted to prove the leak real because I want Isaac in. It's the first Smash Ultimate leak I believe out of all of them :(.

I am normally very skeptical, in Smash 4 speculation I only believed a total of 3 leaks, one that guessed like 2 characters in a row but ended up being fake, Palutena model and ESRB. I believed the Rayman too if that counts and Roy/Ryu/Lucas although there was no way to not believe in a code dump, lol. I didn't believe Gematsu back then although I now believe he did have information and I was wrong. I haven't believed a single Smash U leak, not even Vergeben, not even the Box theory (which isn't really a leak, but point is I don't believe it anyways).
 
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Katy Parry

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You really gotta catch up before you post these things. This has also been disproven several times over, the tour bus one is from the pre-Isabelle version where positioning was different.
Neon with all due respect, I share the same love as you do for this game. I'm caught up. I'm pretty much just sharing what I believe to be true. Positioning is different on several different marketing posters, myself working at GameStop and seeing several examples. I don't myself believe this debunks anything, I think it further proves the point - since the characters have been moved around for a while, it's not up for debate that the Grinch leak having certain things moved around doesn't debunk it.

Plus, I'm just kind of on the hype train. I know you yourself have always been so reserved with your excitement, and you have a more dignified approach when it comes to discussing Isaac, but... I don't.
 

Banjodorf

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The sad part is, the only reason I went so deep is because I wanted to prove the leak real because I want Isaac in. It's the first Smash Ultimate leak I believe out of all of them :(.

I am normally very skeptical, in Smash 4 speculation I only believed a total of 3 leaks, one that guessed like 2 characters in a row but ended up being fake, Palutena model and ESRB. I believed the Rayman too if that counts and Roy/Ryu/Lucas although there was no way to not believe in a code dump, lol. I didn't believe Gematsu back then although I now believe he did have information and I was wrong. I haven't believed a single Smash U leak, not even Vergeben, not even the Box theory (which isn't really a leak, but point is I don't believe it anyways).
Do you have any credentials outside of being analytical? Actually a legitimate question. I'm not trying to be a ****, I just don't remember if you had an important position in the community or a history of leak analysis.

Otherwise, I'm going to assume we're looking to deep into a blurry photo with a lot of unknown variables, that don't *prove* anything false.

Meanwhile, the Growth item just showed up.
 

Chiroz

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Do you have any credentials outside of being analytical? Actually a legitimate question. I'm not trying to be a ****, I just don't remember if you had an important position in the community or a history of leak analysis.

Otherwise, I'm going to assume we're looking to deep into a blurry photo with a lot of unknown variables, that don't *prove* anything false.

Meanwhile, the Growth item just showed up.
Why would I need credentials if I show something that is undeniably fact? I am not talking about whether the leak is real or fake. If I show you a picture of a cat with a scratch and tell you he has a scratch, why would I need to be a vet if the scratch is extremely visible in the picture? In the video I showed everything I talked about, if I am showing you specifically what I am talking about and you can see it with your own eyes, why would I need to have any credentials?






Neon with all due respect, I share the same love as you do for this game. I'm caught up. I'm pretty much just sharing what I believe to be true. Positioning is different on several different marketing posters, myself working at GameStop and seeing several examples. I don't myself believe this debunks anything, I think it further proves the point - since the characters have been moved around for a while, it's not up for debate that the Grinch leak having certain things moved around doesn't debunk it.

Plus, I'm just kind of on the hype train. I know you yourself have always been so reserved with your excitement, and you have a more dignified approach when it comes to discussing Isaac, but... I don't.
With all due respect, you shouldn't outright ignore whatever doesn't align with what you want to be true and then claim things that aren't true as fact and say it's because you want to. It's not about things being moved around, it's about things outright missing or being different.

Like I don't care if you guys want to believe it's true, but do so with facts as opposed to just brushing facts aside. Saying: "Ok, I can see it's changed, but I want to believe Nintendo decided to change it for no valid reason" is ok, but saying: "Well, they've changed it before" when that is factually incorrect is not okay. If you didn't know that's fine, but then saying: "Well I did know, but I didn't care because I want it to be true" is just trying to spread misinformation.

Anyways I will probably be seen as rude again because for some reason I love facts and truth more than I appreciate my own free time, lol. I hope I don't come off as too off putting.
 
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Skyblade12

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The sad part is, the only reason I went so deep is because I wanted to prove the leak real because I want Isaac in. It's the first Smash Ultimate leak I believe out of all of them :(.

I am normally very skeptical, in Smash 4 speculation I only believed a total of 3 leaks, one that guessed like 2 characters in a row but ended up being fake, Palutena model and ESRB. I believed the Rayman too if that counts and Roy/Ryu/Lucas although there was no way to not believe in a code dump, lol. I didn't believe Gematsu back then although I now believe he did have information and I was wrong. I haven't believed a single Smash U leak, not even Vergeben, not even the Box theory (which isn't really a leak, but point is I don't believe it anyways).
I just don't think there's a point to what you're doing, and you're analyzing yourself into a death spiral.

I'm with ArtsyOmni on this one. The image is too indistinct to draw meaningful conclusions from.

But the setup is absolutely ridiculous to believe it's fake. It's a multi-person job up to and including theft of office materials, breach of NDA (for a non-Smash subject), production of unlicensed material, and/or identity theft.

I'm not buying it.
 

EricTheGamerman

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You know, the thing that struck me from the battlefield back ground is that they are missing certain stuff.

Then it hit me...the leaked image could be the early version of battlefield.

Prediction:
Eric is involved in the Marina printing company until 2016. That time, the Ultimate roster is finalized and is possibily in the early/mid stage of battlefield painting. It seems like before he quit or something, he seems to left out a list of code that is shown the top of the battlefield art. For some reason, someone possibly stole the code, find it, and print it out. This gives the reason why Eric refuse to answer the question of him being responsible. This also gave reason why the art does seem to look...incomplete. It may be because it is an early art.

That is my prediction, feel free to criticize it.
Way too early for this stuff to be a thing. That’s when the game was just starting development. Even if we assume the concept art of all the fighters was made with the banner in mind, there’s no reason whatsoever for that to be outside of Nintendo until they decide to advertise. Seeing as Smash wasn’t revealed until March 2018, and Ultimate wasn’t seriously shown off til E3 2018, there isn’t going to be promotional material out there before let’s say even May 2018.

2016, not a chance a French company has anything Smash related.
I just don't think there's a point to what you're doing, and you're analyzing yourself into a death spiral.

I'm with ArtsyOmni on this one. The image is too indistinct to draw meaningful conclusions from.

But the setup is absolutely ridiculous to believe it's fake. It's a multi-person job up to and including theft of office materials, breach of NDA (for a non-Smash subject), production of unlicensed material, and/or identity theft.

I'm not buying it.
Or, assuming it’s fake: A guy finds a halfway convincing LinkedIn profile of a guy that he can use, and bases his whole leak around that guy so that the breadcrumbs line up well enough. This is all extremely doable from one dude being dedicated to his idea. I know people tout that’s too much, but we spend as much time on SmashBoards for fun, what’s to say a guy didn’t decide to spend his time making an elaborate fake for fun?

There’s just not enough hard evidence for any of it for it to be all that believeable in my mind. Sorry I’m still team fake by miles.
 
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Banjodorf

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Why would I need credentials if I show something that is undeniably fact? I am not talking about whether the leak is real or fake. If I show you a picture of a cat with a scratch and tell you he has a scratch, why would I need to be a vet if the scratch is extremely visible in the picture? In the video I showed everything I talked about, if I am showing you specifically what I am talking about and you can see it with your own eyes, why would I need to have any credentials?
Because, what you're seeing isn't *as* clear cut as a cat with a scratch. Something like this has a ton of variables that either aren't being considered or might even be irrelevant. We don't know.

But you didn't actually answer my question, so I assume your status in the community is basically the same as mine. Carry on.
 

Chiroz

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Because, what you're seeing isn't *as* clear cut as a cat with a scratch. Something like this has a ton of variables that either aren't being considered or might even be irrelevant. We don't know.

But you didn't actually answer my question, so I assume your status in the community is basically the same as mine. Carry on.
No, because if you've actually read my posts or watch my videos I am always very precise about what I say. I always narrow it down to 1 or 2 variables, please I implore you to watch my video so you can see how I think/speak.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzc_E_mFq2k&feature=youtu.be
 

Sabrewulf238

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Growth as an item seems strange out of context, but what if there was a similar item for each element?

Personally I think the sprout looks too basic to really get any idea that it's related to Golden Sun though. It could be anything.
 

GoodGrief741

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Honestly, a large part of why I don't trust the "grinch leak" is because of who it gives us. It's 50/50 selfishness and predictability.
First off, no one I want to be revealed has been for this game, two of my most wanted newcomers have already been deconfirmed and two that I actively didn't want are in. I want to believe that there's still hope for characters that I actually like, rather than Isaac's "huh, he sounds fun" being the best I'm gonna get from the game.
Secondly, though, anyone could guess those characters. It's a SUPER predictable line up, which instantly makes me sceptical. Sakurai's not exactly known for predictability and this just looks like safe bets from a fan wanting temporary fame.
Yeah, super predictable. A character from a dormant RPG franchise whose last game was in 2010, a character who appeared in a single game in 1996, a character owned by Microsoft, a character from a niche series, and a character from a 1985 game. Plus no Pokémon.

Really predictable man, for sure.

Ah geez that plant. Come on plant, don't just show up like that. Maaaan now I'm all super hyped up super super hyped.

Also geez it's been a while since I've had to catch up every day, huh? Nice to see the thread having lots of activity again. :3

So we have the Grinch Leak which some people believe, some people don't, some people hmm. I am semi-biased towards it, but I will understand if it's not true. But it's a gigantic tangled web of a mess, that one. Most of the things people are picking on are graphical mishaps, which can be subject to change throughout the process. The empty background could simply be a reference so all the characters can be properly added in places and to keep things to scale and make sure everything fits, and could be less detailed because of that. (Naturally I could be wrong, but hey, gotta give my own perspective.)

So we have a green item, a green leak and a green tweet (Not really. :p). Hmm hmm. Things are looking pretty all right at the moment I'd say, I'm hopeful.


I seem to recall, but may be incorrect in remembering this, that the trademark canceled was only about CD-based things. I don't believe it was the entire trademark for the series that got canned. I might be wrong, by all means someone correct me, cause I hate being wrong.
That’s right, the Custom Robo trademark didn’t expire.

question about the “Chad Ganondorf” leak. Who is the “Ray 01” that the leaker says was cut?
The main robot from Custom Robo.

Ray was an assist trophy back in Brawl, if you remember the small gundam looking fighter guy that flew around and shot out lasers and rockets. He's from a Nintendo series of games called Custom Robo. Unfortunately, they let the trademark lapse just recently. So it's eternally dead.
Actually incorrect, the trademark that expired was for a single game, not the IP.
 

Banjodorf

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No, because if you've actually read my posts or watch my videos I am always very precise about what I say. I always narrow it down to 1 or 2 variables, please I implore you to watch my video so you can see how I think/speak.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzc_E_mFq2k&feature=youtu.be
Narrowed down or not, you can *never* account for all the variables unless you were part of the process yourself. Armchair observation will only get you so far.

But see, you can't be the only one who's thought this. And if someone like ArtsyOmni thinks there's not enough info to definitively say about the images themselves, I'd be more inclined to trust someone like that. I do appreciate the effort though.

And the leak background is more compelling than that, and the characters themselves fit with other information floating around. Sure, that could be a reason why it's fake, but there's a lot of cogs here spinning at once. What was your opinion on ESRB again?

Edit: Why talk about this just hours after the ****ing GROWTH item showed up? That's enormous and we need to discuss it even more and stuff.
 
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TheSpaceKing12

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Growth as an item seems strange out of context, but what if there was a similar item for each element?

Personally I think the sprout looks too basic to really get any idea that it's related to Golden Sun though. It could be anything.
That's the logic, but if you go down the list of potential canidates for what the item actually is. You either A, think it's a mario item which can easily be debunked because the beanstalk is almost always in a block B, it's a food item. This can also be debunked on account of food in smash looking very realistic. C- Its a golden sun item. Or D- It's a new smash item, and if that's the case why has it taken so long to be revealed? The most logical conclusion for me is that it's growth, until someone finds out what else the item could be.
 

Chiroz

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Narrowed down or not, you can *never* account for all the variables unless you were part of the process yourself. Armchair observation will only get you so far.

But see, you can't be the only one who's thought this. And if someone like ArtsyOmni thinks there's not enough info to definitively say about the images themselves, I'd be more inclined to trust someone like that. I do appreciate the effort though.

And the leak background is more compelling than that, and the characters themselves fit with other information floating around. Sure, that could be a reason why it's fake, but there's a lot of cogs here spinning at once. What was your opinion on ESRB again?

I believed it was true. I also was part of the leak thread which I believe you were part of, yet I almost never talked on the thread because there is no reason to talk without evidence and I never cared enough about the ESRB leak to do any kind of analysis on it. I also never believe almost anything until shown undeniable proof, so things like "Shulk is a photoshopped Little Mac" would never convince me until I saw something that was 100% undeniable which never actually happened with the ESRB.

You are generalizing way too much. In my cat example, does the cat not have a scratch? What about all the other variables you are talking about? Where are they present? Certain things don't require you to know the circumstances to be able to tell if it's a fact or not. As I said, it's about dividing things into only 1 variable, only 1 thing you can prove or disprove without depending on other things.

Let me break it down for you:

Fact: It is easy to move the characters in the banner
Fact: It is easy to recreate a vast majority of the background of the banner
Fact: All of the sections of the background that are easy to recreate have been recreated identically on the leak
Fact: All of the sections that would be impossible to recreate accurately without having the official artwork are completely different and don't look even close to similar.
Fact: All of the sections that are outright wrong are sections that are not viewable in the final product (with the characters on top) so "updating" or "simplifying" them makes no difference at all to a person viewing the poster with all the characters.


This is all I've claimed. In my video I show every one of these points with specific examples. You tell me, which variables am I not accounting for? If you want to continue believing the leak is true even after knowing these facts, you are welcome to. People have made different reasons as to why these facts could be true but the leak could also be true at the same time, and while I don't share their beliefs they are welcome to do that.

What I find a bit worrisome is that some people claim these aren't facts just because they don't want to believe them. Or that people can claim that because I don't have some status of power the facts that I present stop being facts.
 
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PurpleStuff5

Smash Cadet
Joined
Nov 24, 2013
Messages
34
While I don't think the stem exactly resembles the growth icon from Golden Sun, to me it seems pixelated in a similar style as the GS games. Does anyone else see that? It looks purposefully un-HD.
 

Dionaea_floridensis

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 28, 2018
Messages
484
OKAY so me mates and I just had a long discussion about the sprout item and here are our conclusions:
>Leech Seeds: None of the Leech Seed sprites look enough like the new item. The leaves are spade shaped with much more prominent veins. The Gen VII Leech Seeds possess a coil in their stems, and it's reasonable to deduce they'd use the Gen VII models if the item were Leech Seed. The new item doesn't coil in its stem, so I believe we can dismiss Leech Seed as a candidate.
>Mario Beanstalks: similar case to Leech Seeds. Beanstalks never appeared as items in Mario games, never inside a bubble, and none of the sprites/models resemble this item very much.
>Pikmin: The Pikmin only have 1 leaf on their heads, and (from what we discussed) there isn't anything else in Pikmin that fits this item.
>Donkey Kong: we couldn't find anything from the DK series that fit here either.
>Animal Crossing: all of the sprouts in all the AC games have more spade-shaped leaves and brown stems. No true matches here either.
>Ever Oasis: there are leaf and seed sprites, but nothing really resembling this item.
>Earthbound: the stalk enemies made a lot of sense here but the item doesn't have legs, the leaves are too round, and the color isn't right.
>Electroplankton: the plants in that game also have brown stems, more spade shaped leaves, and gray spines. The art style doesn't match the sprout at all, however, the little bubbles that appear in the game kind of resemble the bubble here?
>Zelda: the biggest problem here is art style, as the art style of the sprout doesn't match any zelda game really. Perhaps it's a new Deku sprout? I don't think so, honestly.

After all that, what we came to is It's either a smash original item or a GS item. What do y'all think? Did we miss anything?
 
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