I hate to bring the thread down, but I think we should call it GGs for base. The biggest thing in our favor (and every other possible newcomer's favor) was the assumption we'd get an early October Direct. With that not panning out and people shifting to a Double Direct November, I think everyone's toast bar a miracle.
If it's indeed a General + Smash Direct, everyone is toast. General will most likely be a big name (presumably a Pokemon so presumably Incineroar), and the Smash will be focused on Spirits with a few left over reveals (presumably Ken).
Characterwise, the Smash Direct can go two ways, or what I'll call 103 and 108. 103 is MAYBE one character we haven't seen yet, 108 would be an insane a-la August blowout where everyone goes crazy. 108 is the least likely.
108 requires both Corocoro to *intentionally* mislead their readers regarding the stage total at this point and for Nintendo to know how to actually be competent with generating hype near release, which they have never proven themselves remotely good at. I would NOT expect lightning to strike twice and for a 3+ character reveal extravaganza to occur because of this.
Isaac will never be General Direct material for obvious reasons. The odds of him pulling a June Ridley are low for the same reasons: he isn't big enough to carry a Direct on his own in any reasonable way. The only characters that can come close aren't even majorly speculated on right now bar Steve, who is unlikely for different reasons but still fits the bill. For better or worse, all the largely speculated characters right now are virtual nobodies to most people. K. Rool definitely helps in this regard since he's a dinosaur in his own right, but for now I'm inclined to think hes the exception, not the rule.
I really want everyone's expectations for base to drop immediately, given how things are. I don't want Smash 4 to happen all over again, where the Isaac crowd went all-in even to the last minute and got crushed as a result. We need to be the first to shift towards DLC, become the forefront there, and *hope* someone hears us. If we keep going forward with most of our confidence in a basegame appearance, I'm worried we may fragment again. I'm not sure if we can recover from that nightmare a second time.
End rant and all that. If I'm wrong, I'll eat my delicious, delicious words while playing Isaac.