Had to catch up with all the pages, I've got to say it feels like a full time gig. Not to mention everyone has great information to bring to the table.
I, for one, feel that Isaac is going to happen this time around. The difference in Ultimate rather than in Sm4sh or even Brawl is that there is an engine to run on this time around for some decent fuel for conjecture. In the previous iterations of the Smash games, if you take a look at the newcomers, you could definitely see trends appearing and there were too many spots for characters that needed to be filled. How could Isaac contend against Diddy Kong and Wario in Brawl? or the recency and relevance push clearly set in place for Sm4sh? Not to mention... there was nothing really pointing towards Isaac being noticeable other than an AT... an AT that ultimately got snatched away like our hearts.
This time, all of that is out of the way. We know two things for certain which is the main things that lead me toward the Isaac conclusion. 'Everyone is here' and the Smash Ballot. A corollary is in the title of the game: 'Ultimate'. It's certainly appearing that that's the case... Over 900 songs, at least 103 stages, every playable character we've ever had. I'm also fully expecting that we'll get every game mode that smash has ever had (with maybe the exception of the board the platforms, race to the finish and target smash). Definitely All-Star mode, Event mode, Master and Crazy Orders and Home Run. You can't claim to be ultimate without that kind of thing going on, after all.
Now, put it all together in your mind while focusing on Isaac. Golden Sun is not an unsuccessful Nintendo franchise. To all of us here, you can't claim that everyone is here if Isaac isn't in here in the first place. After all, it's not as if Isaac is a flavor of the month popularity pick. Isaac as a character choice goes way back - even to the post Melee days. Yes, perhaps Brawl was too early, but he was definitely in lists even back then. Never really falling out of a top 10 in all-time perspective. For the Smash community, this list as I've noticed it, particularly between post-Brawl until now, has basically looked like Mewtwo, Roy, Wolf, Ridley, K. Rool, Isaac, Geno in no particular order. Most of the other characters popularity tend to fluctuate wildly either being a flavor-of-the-month, recency or another similar factor. (Please note that I am not attempting to bash any other character in saying this, simply generalizing)
Most of these characters have now been realized in this latest game. Everyone except Isaac and Geno. I'll leave Geno aside to focus on Isaac. He's been in the game before and he's 1st party. We know the ballot matters in Ultimate and at the time the ballot was taken; while we've never been given specific numbers, Isaac was definitely not low. Something interesting to note about Isaac is how much he dominates specific character polling. In just about any poll where you can choose one and only one character, many other characters fade away leaving Isaac pretty close to the top. I believe that Dojo Exit poll 100%. Even if the numbers are bad, the statistics pooled together over a larger population are not going to fluctuate too wildly.
I never had hope like this before because these people were never selected for this specific dodgeball team before. The people being the 'Irrelevant Group' and the dodgeball team being a smash game. I fully expect both Isaac and Geno (unless something goes horribly wrong with the copyrights) because other than the Inklings, the only characters being chosen are from the 'Irrelevant Group'. If Isaac is passed over again it just wouldn't make sense anymore. It would be like asking you to pick 5 names out of a hat that had 5 names in it.
It's interesting you say this, because I had a similar thought as I was going to bed last night.
Something people tend to not consider in Smash Speculation is the
direction that Smash is taking with character picks.
What do I mean by this? Well...
There are seven types of character that are chosen for Smash games.
Obvious Picks
These are the characters who should be in the game. It's mostly made up of classical main characters.
Sensible Picks
These are the character who you say: "Yeah, with [x] in, this makes sense". After the Obvious ones are picked, these become the no-brainers.
Contemporary Picks
Characters picked mainly because they are recent rather than any kind of staying power, after a while, these have a chance to become Sensible Picks
Sakurai's Pick
This is the "Sakurai Weirdness" Category, made up of characters who might not have gotten in otherwise. Mostly, a lot of them require outside-the-box thinking to make work (generally the later ones). These are also the fabled "Retro Reps".
(because the fans were too afraid to ask for him)
Developer Request
Sometimes, characters are specifically requested by other developers, and sometimes Sakurai listens.
“Characters of Convenience”
These are character who just happen to fit a pre-existing mold, they probably wouldn't have gotten in without it.
Fan Demand
Characters who wouldn't have gotten in without the demand for them. Obviously, other characters have demand, but these guys are the ones who rely on it.
Smash 64 was made up mostly of obvious characters, with only Ness, Captain Falcon and Jigglypuff being the outliers
(seriously, how many people didn't even know who Ness was before Smash Bros.?). Captain Falcon happened to fit the model made for the Dragon King tech demo, and Jigglypuff happened to be a moderately popular Pokémon who was similar in Body to Kirby.
Melee began filling in the blanks with Villains, the Princesses, and Characters who were going to be in 64 had it had a longer dev cycle (Marth and Mewtwo), the outliers are Ice Climbers and Mr. Game & Watch, both very old characters. When there was an increasing time crunch, a lot of clones were made.
Brawl continued filling in blanks with Wario
(seriously, how many people said that Wario should have been in in Melee?). Pit was like Ice Climbers, an old character who hadn't been seen in years. Snake was specifically asked for by Kojima, and Sonic just made sense as Mario's biggest rival. Wolf was picked because he was convenient
(Sakurai himself said that they had a choice between Wolf and Krystal, and picked Wolf because he was more similar to Fox and Falco and therefore took less work).
Smash 4's Newcomers were made up primarily of Contemporary Characters (Bowser Jr., Rosalina, Shulk, Wii Fit Trainer - who was also a weird pick), Villager should have been in Brawl
(as many have said); Little Mac was chosen due to being popular in the West, with Mega Man being the obvious third party
(how many people say Mega Man just feels like a Nintendo character?), PAC-MAN, like MG&W and R.O.B. has historical significance.
The name of Ultimate's game is
Fan Demand, moreso than any other Smash Game so far, with all the obvious characters taken, it's only logical. Besides Splatoon, there weren't any new Nintendo IPs/characters that made waves before the project plan was done; ARMS came out after the plan was done.
Most of the Characters and Assists picked for Smash Ultimate were ones who did decently well on Fan Exit Polls, this is
very noteworthy.
Is Isaac going to get in? If he's as requested as K. Rool like we think he is, probably. Anyone who thinks Isaac
isn't requested is either delusional or incredibly biased.
...
Phew, this was a post-and-a-half, wasn't it?