SSB4 Rumours and Leaks

[dezeray112]

The internet's reactions to the "leaks" have been far more fascinating to me than the leaks themselves. It appears as though the vast majority of speculators and members of this forum have no conception of the scientific method, or they decide to allow their hopes for the game to override any logic they may use elsewhere, which of course is perfectly acceptable in the name of fun.

(As an aside, I would be interested in demographic information about all of you. Are most of the people I am seeing middle school-age kids who haven't learned or experienced basic rules of logic? Or are you mathematicians with PhDs who come here to let off steam and troll each other?)

For those of you who honestly analyze each leak and express hope that some of them might be true, consider these questions next time before you decide to follow one:

1) What motivation would someone have to leak information about this game to a bunch of strangers on the internet? 99.99% of Smash leaks have historically been hopeful predictions or people seeking attention.
2) What evidence does the leaker offer? Anything that is not a screenshot, line of code, or prediction that can be 100% authenticated within a reasonable amount of time is not evidence. A good fake will be just vague enough that it cannot be completely disproved.
3) How easy was it to create the leak? It takes about five minutes to write up a list of roster predictions and post it on a new account, but it takes a lot longer to meticulously photoshop a screenshot. The image leaks I've seen have been (rightfully) dismissed, but it's amusing how much more stock is placed in written rumors that require almost no effort. The more time something would take to fabricate, the more inspection it deserves.
4) Do you want the leak to be true? If so, be extremely careful with how you weight it compared to similar leaks.
5) Similarly, do you think a leak is unlikely given the proposed roster or game modes? The contents of a leak (unless they are legitimately off the rails) are not reason enough to dismiss it.
6) Where did the leak come from? Historically, leakers with real information go to well known websites before posting their leak on a throwaway GameFAQs account. Similar to newspaper journalism, the leaker will present their credentials to the editor of the website who will judge the validity of the leak. If they are convinced, they post it while keeping their source anonymous.
7) How many other leakers have taken a shot at predicting similar things? In the case of the Dedede reveal, many people (not just leakers) reasonably assumed he would be revealed with the new Kirby game. With enough people throwing around random predictions, statistically speaking one of them is bound to get a couple things right (like Ashley being an assist trophy).
8) Do one or two correct details guarantee the rest of a leak to be true? Of course not. The sheer volume of predictions can create lucky guesses.

I will briefly address the Little-Pac-Mii rumor that seems to have the biggest following here (thanks to Miles Pierre for concisely summarizing the circumstances and doing a little research, another thing most speculators can't, or don't want, to engage in). Despite being right about Wii Fit Trainer, which is admittedly a long shot and impressive if it was just a guess, the "leak" was 50% wrong in what it predicted. I think the problem people are having is that by the very nature of how Sakurai reveals his characters, we won't know if this leak was really a tip off or just a lucky guess until the game is released. Up until that point, it is possible that any of those three characters is a hidden unlockable. But it's equally possible that some or none of them are in the game. There's really no way to test that knowledge. If anything, Sal Romano should be trying to get his alleged source to predict other things.

Finally, I find it amusing to see so much hope and speculation attached to rumors I know for a fact to be jokes. Many Smashboards users have already admitted to posting fake leaks on other websites to fool their peers, and I personally witnessed people making up rumors that are still circulating this very thread. If you apply the above questions to each leak and use rational thought, I'm sure you'll be able to weed them out. I'm not here to ruin your fun; I just want to offer a more scientific approach to speculation.

As for my opinion on the leaks, I generally take these with a grain of salt and just wait and see what comes up within months to come.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

I didn't see a bunny hood

I wouldn't believe a leak that said this, that's ****ing preposterous.

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

I wouldn't believe a leak that said this, that's ****ing preposterous.

Bunny hood confirmed to be playable character with permenant cloaking effect.

 

[BKupa666]

Bring on Cowboy Mario, bring on The Hand and the Sandbag, bring on legendofrob leaking the Stork, but like hell I'm believing a leak disconfirming the bunny hood.

Also, thought I'd point out that there's always a surprising number of guests in this leaks thread...For the same reason I was suspicious when there were 10-12 guests constantly in the K. Rool thread for a whole week last spring, I'm wondering whether some may be Nintendo and/or Namco employees, considering the ones that visited pre-Brawl to learn about and report on L-Canceling in the demo. There are 24 here now, and a whopping 83 were watching last night.

Though granted, at least this time, we know that this thread has been linked every which way in light of the "Major Leak," so it may just be regular viewers.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Also, thought I'd point out that there's always a surprising number of guests in this leaks thread...for the same reason I was suspicious when there were 10-12 guests constantly in the K. Rool thread for a whole week last spring, I'm wondering whether some may be Nintendo and/or Namco employees.

I think that's simply because a thread about potential leaks draws a lot of attention. The K. Rool thing is a bit odd though. I have no doubt that some of the people who are gathering info for Sakurai has been on here a lot during the planning phase.

 

[BKupa666]

I think that's simply because a thread about potential leaks draws a lot of attention. The K. Rool thing is a bit odd though. I have no doubt that some of the people who are gathering info for Sakurai has been on here a lot during the planning phase.

I agree, I'm just tossing around ideas. Also, it's known that Nate Bihldorff visits Smashboards and NeoGAF, or at least did pre-Brawl. Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he and the other Treehouse members were watching over us right now. Hello, guys!

 

[MasterOfKnees]

I agree, I'm just tossing around ideas. Also, it's known that Nate Bihldorff visits Smashboards and NeoGAF, or at least did pre-Brawl. Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he and the other Treehouse members were watching over us right now. Hello, guys!

Kind of off-topic, but I couldn't help but laugh at how the first comment after him was "I love you too, but where's EarthBound?"

Didn't know that guys from the top of the Treehouse like Bihldorff did that kind of work and communication, that's pretty rad.

 

[smashbroskilla]

If the part you're primarily denying is "digging it up", that's not a good sign.


Fair enough. I'd also take the seriousness of whatever KCCHIEF is saying with a grain of salt, he has a history of trolling.

Now let's get back to trying to stay more or less on topic.

The only person trolling is zero

You want to know? Fine. I'm just here to let off some steam and troll/mess around with people. I'm serious in real life 24/7 focusing on my studies, why should I waste my time developing hypotheses over trivial pics of day? Why should I waste my time speculating over supposed "leaks" when its better to just shut up and wait for the game to release? I find it laughable when someone says "my video game logic is impeccable". You know how silly that is? its a video game forum. I cannot even fathom as to why people go to such great lengths, to try to figure out what goes on in a developer's mind when they can just wait for the game to release. (I don't find it fun, playing some smash is more fun.)

This struck me as somewhat of a belittling post. Just because some users choose not to go to great lengths in terms of speculation doesn't mean that their inept or that some users are better than others. If i misinterpreted then correct me, but that's how I interpreted your post. The post KCCHIEF quoted was from a few hours ago. How is that "digging" it up?

Today is Thursday on the east coast and I don't think I'll read anything more hypocritical than that. He has a slight chance with some of the status updates idiots post on Facebook but I think hes got it locked down. You never know though Monday is a whole new start.

 

[RelaxAlax]

Heyhey, there's always that one thing excluded people don't like. It's a hella lot better than some stork leak lol

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Heyhey, there's always that one thing excluded people don't like. It's a hella lot better than some stork leak lol

I'm sure we can say that for every future "leak" too.

 

[SirGalvan]

That Stork rumor makes me want it in the game now. It could be like Pokémon Trainer but instead of Pokemon you switch between the different babies

 

[MasterOfKnees]

That Stork rumor makes me want it in the game now. It could be like Pokémon Trainer but instead of Pokemon you switch between the different babies

Hooray for Storks enslaving babies!

 

[SlickWylde]

For those arguing about elitism, and this being for hardcore, bla bla bla: That's cool, and there are topics on here for that, but the name of this topic is Rumors and Leaks, so why don't you just read the topics you want, and let us "casuals" (Even though I've probably played each Smash Bros game for hundreds and hundreds of hours) imagine, think about, and maybe even get a little hyped about what we hope will be in the game?
I get bored at work, so when I have a break between projects, I like to come on here and read either cool, or blatantly stupid speculation about characters and items. Because it's fun, and it brings a smile to my face. It's a bummer to be reading fun/funny ideas, and then seeing this huge argument between people who would probably have a blast playing together if they just stopped trying to prove a point.
Some of my best memories of Brawl aren't the actual game, but the online conversations I had with people speculating. We'd all get so excited when we were right, rejoiced when we were surprised, and helped each other when we were disappointed. It was awesome.

And this topic is awesome, so I hope the dumb rumors continue

 

[Substitution]

That Stork rumor makes me want it in the game now. It could be like Pokémon Trainer but instead of Pokemon you switch between the different babies

What stork rumor? Wasn't here for this.

 

[Starcutter]

also guys the stork leak is debunked.

What stork rumor? Wasn't here for this.

it's the following "leak"

Okay, which one of you wise guys wrote this one?

Spoiler

Hey guys, I actually know someone over at japan, (trust me on this one) and he's friends with someone who is working on the game. more specifically, they got a new-to-the-industry musician to do re-makes of songs. that being said, most of the stuff he knows about are music that he's hired to re-make, but at the same time he did hear (and see) a few things. apparently he has also played with Mr. Sakuri during one or two lunch breaks, so he knows a little bit about the newcomers, as well as a couple stages. here's what he knows at this point.
-There is going to be another mario stage, but right now it's in the planning stage. it's either going to be a Bowser's castle stage, or it's going to be a Bomb-omb Battlefield stage. my friend's friend attended the meeting of the stage to discuss whether to create a new BGM for the stage or rip music from Super Mario Galaxy.
-A new Yoshi stage, based off Yoshi's New Island. it will appear on the 3DS.
-Kamek is an assist trophy, he flies across the top with magic that will randomly either grow or shrink all players.
-The Stork will appear as playable, with inspiration taken from the babies in Yoshi's Island DS
-Mona was added as a playable character. rumor that she was added just so Sakuri could see how many costumes he could fit onto one character without eating up too much development time.
-There is also a new DK stage, which is frozen DK island from Donkey Kong Country Returns. a stage for DKC is also present in the 3DS version, which can be seen in the first trailer.
-Cranky Kong is an assist trophy that serves a purpose similar to Mr. Resetti.
-Dixie Kong is supposedly in alpha stages if office chat is correct, King K. Rool is supposedly also planned, and work will begin on him shortly.
-Pokemon has a new stage, Lumoise city. My friend was asked to compose any pokemon music he would like, so he's making "The Sea of Time" from Pokemon Mystery Dungeon Explorers of Time fit the setting.
-All Pokemon veterans return. Pichu is in the background of the stage as a cameo.
-Kirby's Epic Yarn stage exists, it's combined with the Yarn Yoshi stage. it's a 50/50 chance whether the background elements resemble the yarn/fabric segments of Yarn Yoshi or Kirby's Epic Yarn.
-no info on any new kirby character, except Meta Knight has been balanced more properly
-Pyrosphere apparently has an amazing remix of Ridley's theme.
-Ridley was managed to be resized. apparently when someone came to sakuri with ridley's first model, which was based off other M, he flipped out and demanded a model based off Super Metroid's Ridley. according to my friend it was the talk of the office for a while.
-Sector Z from the first smash comes back in HD. the cast of star fox should stay the same.
-Saturn Valley is a new Mother stage.
-the Punch-Out!! stage is indeed a Punch-out stage, currently labled "Smash Circuit". It has mostly Punch-Out songs, with one Kirby track to accommodate the many wrestling rings in the Kirby games, the track is a remix of "Masked Dedede".
-Little Mac is a newcomer, and is mostly complete for the most part.
-Kid Icarus has a new character, Palutena, who was supposedly one of the first newcomers "finished".
also, he's just a music guy, so he doesn't know any of the announcment dates, sorry.

the creator of the "leak" came up clean and confirmed it as fake.

 

[BKupa666]

also guys the stork leak is debunked.

it's the following "leak"

the creator of the "leak" came up clean and confirmed it as fake.

Who was it? In any case, my apologies for pointing fingers.

Knew it was you. Next time you want to be believed, get rid of the bloody Stork.

 

[Aurora Jenny]

Ugh. Would the trolls stop with the blatant stuff, so we can actually see the 'real' bullroar that surfaces? I was amused at first, but NOW I'm just sick and tired of it. So would you jokers here on Smashboards that are doing this stop?

 

[Wario Bros.]

Ugh. Would the trolls stop with the blatant stuff, so we can actually see the 'real' bullroar that surfaces? I was amused at first, but NOW I'm just sick and tired of it. So would you jokers here on Smashboards that are doing this stop?

There seems to be a giant burst of "leaks" whenever a character is confirmed. Since King Dedede is now almost a week old I say it should die a good bit soon. I hope...

 

[TheUltraDeino]

You know, I know a friend who works at the company. He said that Rosalina is confirmed and that a pilotwings stage is for the Wii U.

 

[Starcutter]

Ugh. Would the trolls stop with the blatant stuff, so we can actually see the 'real' bullroar that surfaces? I was amused at first, but NOW I'm just sick and tired of it. So would you jokers here on Smashboards that are doing this stop?

...I only did one.... and it was only for fun.

 

[GreenReaperGod]

You know, I know a friend who works at the company. He said that Rosalina is confirmed and that a pilotwings stage is for the Wii U.

Can people please just stop with the joke leaks already? They aren't even funny anymore.

 

[swordbreaker]

Just went through an in depth analysis of Wii Fit Trainers moves, there's no way in heck she's getting a butt attack. Every single one of her moves is a fitness pose or stance, that's the point of her attacks. Unless its a grab which we haven't seen and even less likely to use her butt. Same with head butt. Hopefully there is a new character announcement soon that will fully put the nail in the coffin and kill this thing off.

 

[PSIguy89]

if its true that some of the NOA team come look at this site that is awesome....I bet they laugh their asses off at some of the leaks too haha.
23 guests right now as I post this.....Nintendo? is that you????

 

[Zorfendor]

I usually browse without logging in, so I just want to confirm: no, I am not Nintendo.

 

[Substitution]

...I only did one.... and it was only for fun.

Gotta hand it to them, Gamefaqs can be ruthless at times. I posted a "leak" revolving around the character page (which gives you a 404), and they just tore it up. It was almost comical.

 

[Starcutter]

Gotta hand it to them, Gamefaqs can be ruthless at times. I posted a "leak" revolving around the character page (which gives you a 404), and they just tore it up. It was almost comical.

They deleted mine before I could see it

 

[Substitution]

They deleted mine before I could see it

Acutally, same thing with mine. Though I only found out cause I wanted to see how "well" it had done.

 

[No Control]

As much as I usually hate "leaks" I'd love for that translator one to be true. Ridley, K. Rool, Little Mac AND Palutena? It'd be almost too good to be true. Yes please!

 

[SlickWylde]

As much as I usually hate "leaks" I'd love for that translator one to be true. Ridley, K. Rool, Little Mac AND Palutena? It'd be almost too good to be true. Yes please!

Unfortunately, I think it IS too good to be true

 

[GreenReaperGod]

Gotta hand it to them, Gamefaqs can be ruthless at times. I posted a "leak" revolving around the character page (which gives you a 404), and they just tore it up. It was almost comical.

Considering how good we are at debunking leaks, we would probably be pretty good at making one

 

[Fortanono]

Ya know, I've made a few leaks myself. Scan through the pages and guess which ones!

 

[Deku_Don]

Ya know, I've made a few leaks myself. Scan through the pages and guess which ones!

Is there anyone here who hasn't posted a leak? haha. I swear in the space of 2 days about 5 or more of us have admitted to posting something fake.

 

[Z25]

Ya know, I've made a few leaks myself. Scan through the pages and guess which ones!

Edit : Didn't mean to quote this.

 

[BKupa666]

Ya know, I've made a few leaks myself. Scan through the pages and guess which ones!

If we guess correctly, will you tell? I guess the Ashley AT "Master Leak," by the way.

 

[RelaxAlax]

It's one thing to joke about making leaks ... but making them? C'mon ...

HAVE SOME RESPECT FOR YOUR COMMUNITY

 

[Fortanono]

If we guess correctly, will you tell? I guess the Ashley AT "Master Leak," by the way.

Don't even know what that leak is.

 

[TiaSilvia]

Ya know, I've made a few leaks myself. Scan through the pages and guess which ones!

The Stork leak. Am i right?

 

[powerprotoman]

new leak from gamefaqs

i'm not going to bother with how i know this but to prove i'm legit captain falcon will be announced on the 21st,

the roster has similar layout to brawl and 10 by 5 in size giving us 49 characters.
first off: mario, you've seen all of them.
mario spin offs: the dk series does have a newcomer and its cranky kong, using his cane attack, wario and yoshi are back aswell, dixie will be an assist trophy to those upset about her not being playable
next up zelda: ganondorf is back and sadly he has his tp design, so does shiek, the zelda newcomer in this is tingle, alot of his moves have a confetti effect to it,
now for space characters, metroid and star fox: zero suit is back with her other m design and ridley is playable with a design similar to both other m and brawl, he uses his claws and tail to for most of his attack, the star fox characters are unchanged, sorry krystal fans.
sakurais ips next, kirby and kidicarus: meta knights back and toned down, he can't move when using the tornado and can't steer when when using his side b, he no longer hops backwards when finishing the attack meaning if you go off the edge you'll probably die. palutena is also a newcomer and uses her staff to attack
now for fire emblem and earthbound: ikes back and unchanged, and robins in the game as a newcomer, chrom will be an assist trophy, ness and lucas are un changed,
now pokemon: this make alot of people upset, jigglypuff is the only veteran besides pikachu, well pkmn trainers back but uses different pokemon, greninja, braixen and chespin. greninja is like a mixture of shiek and squirtal, nimble with alot of water/ninja moves, braixen will please alot of people wanting a mage character, using her stick for fire based moves, chespin uses alot a needles and spikes in his attacks and is very physically based, next is blaziken, he acts exactly how you would expect, kicking, punching and swiping at his enemy with a nice fire effect, also new despite alot of people thinking his chances had deminished is zoroark, his character is actually complete and even has a final smash, he makes the stage look like another one while changing between pulling you in and pushing you away, it last for 10 secs, besides that he is very physically based.
now for the single rep veterans, captain falcon (as mentioned above), olimar, ice climbers, r.o.b. and mr game & watch,
newcomer single reps now, villager and wft obviously, we also have little mac, isaac is also here, these characters are still in early stages of development so i don't have much information on them, and shulk is in, lips not in sadly.
now for third party characters.....plus takamaru: i think they put takamaru here because he will be the game & watch from melee in this game, uses many samurai/ninja weapons in his moveset, pac-mans in but his moveset looks like its going to be the blandest of all the newcomers, he acts similar to sonic.

ill edit if they add more

 

[Substitution]

game & watch from melee in this game, uses many samurai/ninja weapons in his moveset,

...Excuse me? What's this monstrosity of a sentence I'm hearing?
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/633202-super-smash-bros-for-wii-u/68352901
The other users are justifiably beating this to the ground.

 

[powerprotoman]

...Excuse me? What's this monstrosity of a sentence I'm hearing?
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/633202-super-smash-bros-for-wii-u/68352901
The other users are justifiably beating this to the ground.

i think what they mean is that very few people knew who game and watch was when he made his first playable appearence in melee