SSB4 Rumours and Leaks

[Johnknight1]

But this time, they're made by the professionals. They're official.

As much as I like the team in charge of development, we still should reserve judgment and insane hype to the end.

Still, I wonder about the history of "leaks" with this Namco Bandai Soul Caliber team and "leaks".

I know that Tekken has had a few back in the day, but I don't know about the Soul Calibur crew.

Anyone know much about their history of having leaks=??? (I know the Darth Vader and Yoda reveal in Soul Caliber IV was kept a secret until the reveal)

 

[swordbreaker]

I haven't played Animal Crossing in forever, but if I remember right, Tom Nook didn't have those wide open eyes, his eyes were always partially shut like that. The raccoon in the trailer kinda looks like those two kids of his because their eyes were constantly in wide open mode, lest I'm just not remembering it right.

No (just checked) it's Nook, Sakurai just screwed up I guess. That's his New Leaf sweater. Kind of like how the Bowser and Link model is a little off.

As far as the other "leak" that just popped up. It looks like it was ripped from GAMEFAQS top most wanted making sure to leave out anything that's mostly hated over there (Takamaru, Shulk, Isaac). Basically leaving out anybody who would honestly bring something new in favor of JUST popular characters. I'm certain that's fake.

EDITS: Also no cuts, and the only characters who get "decloned" are the targets for getting cut - Wolf and Falco.

 

[BKupa666]

Doesn't contribute anything worthwhile to the leak discussion you say? That assumes the notion that being objectively fishy exists. If we really want to be objective about this ,humans are in general, really terrible at conditional probability. A heuristic that simple abides by "all leaks are false" will have a higher accuracy rate then most people here. If we're really going to be so object then why not just have everyone abide by this heuristic and be done with this thread? Or better still we could just wait until we objectively know exactly who is in the game. This is all subjective; please, let's not pretend otherwise.

It's entirely possible that some people legitimately overlooked Ganondorf's sword portion of the leak.

Sorry if I seem a bit irritated. I have a lot of respect for BluePikmin, and I feel as though "not contributing anything" is pretty much the worst thing you can be accused of on a forum.

Sorry if I rustled your jimmies, I wasn't targeting anyone in here (didn't even remember who said what about the ghost stuff), and meant "contributing" in terms of leak discussion specifically, not forum presence in general.

I understand that true objectivity is impossible in terms of what's strange to see in a leak, but I think blatant subjectivity, on the other hand, is pretty clear. Stuff like, "This leak is false because Bowser Jr. isn't on the roster, and I think Bowser Jr. will have some role in this game because Sakurai is looking for Mario newcomers," or something to that effect. That's what ought to be phased out of these sorts of discussions if we wish to not needlessly dismiss potentially worthy leaks, like the ChaosZero or NyaseNya ones pre-Brawl.

 

[UltimateCyborgOverlord]

No (just checked) it's Nook, Sakurai just screwed up I guess. That's his New Leaf sweater. Kind of like how the Bowser and Link model is a little off.

As far as the other "leak" that just popped up. It looks like it was ripped from GAMEFAQS top most wanted making sure to leave out anything that's mostly hated over there (Takamaru, Shulk, Isaac). Basically leaving out anybody who would honestly bring something new in favor of JUST popular characters. I'm certain that's fake.

Did not play New Leaf, so wasn't aware he had gotten a new sweater. I just remember that blue apron from the DS and Gamecube.

Do you speak of the one that claims to know of Ashley's Assist Trophy nature in addition to the other things stated? You know... I do NOT mean to point fingers at ANYBODY... but I find it quite curious that we were just discussing the potential of him making up that story, and now all of a sudden he crops back up to say exactly that. Very curious if you ask me.

 

[Substitution]

As much as I like the team in charge of development, we still should reserve judgment and insane hype to the end.

Still, I wonder about the history of "leaks" with this Namco Bandai Soul Caliber team and "leaks".

I know that Tekken has had a few back in the day, but I don't know about the Soul Calibur crew.

Anyone know much about their history of having leaks=??? (I know the Darth Vader and Yoda reveal in Soul Caliber IV was kept a secret until the reveal)

I not sure.
But I mean, we're talking about Namco here, if I'm correct, isn't part of the development team from Tekken helping as well? I think we're in good hands.

Did not play New Leaf, so wasn't aware he had gotten a new sweater. I just remember that blue apron from the DS and Gamecube.

Yeah, his kids are running the shop. (Still need to re-pay him, wouldn't be Animal Crossing without it.)
It's not a half-bad game, Though I wouldn't recommend playing for hours on end... It's better IMO to play every now and then. Though it doesn't help that it's addicting...

 

[Johnknight1]

Well, characters do contribute a lot to the actual gameplay.

The characters definitely in that sense make the experience and gameplay better (or worse in a few rare cases), but the gameplay is still the key.

If the gameplay is enjoyable for the player, it makes any "bad spots" bearable, and it makes the other good features (including roster) look 100 times better.

If the gameplay is not enjoyable for the player, it makes any "bad spots" be barriers in playing it, and it makes the other good features (including the roster) a reason to come back to playing the game for only a temporary amount of time.

Going back to the former point (because I am fairly sure we'll get 2 good games with good gameplay), the 100x part is what interests me. I want to see characters that add to the gameplay that no other character brings.

All the 22 unconfirmed Brawl characters have done that before in the past IMO, as well as Mewtwo. The Melee cut characters could do it with major overhauls. Many potential newcomers could do it as well, although obviously only prominent characters (the main character of small franchises and 3rd party franchises, and major characters in major franchises) will wind up playable.

My point is leading me to this: I think if we do get a legitimate leak, it will mention stuff about gameplay (like the 2 true ones in Brawl did), and how the gameplay impacts the character selection. I think the gameplay of Brawl, for instance, made a character like Ike, Lucario, and ROB appealing. It did this even moreso with Meta Knight, who was the most "Melee" character in Brawl.

I think gameplay is paramount even in dissecting leaks is what I'm essentially getting off. Heck, the Brawl leaks that were real had many gameplay tidbits.

 

[salmonofdoubt]

The internet's reactions to the "leaks" have been far more fascinating to me than the leaks themselves. It appears as though the vast majority of speculators and members of this forum have no conception of the scientific method, or they decide to allow their hopes for the game to override any logic they may use elsewhere, which of course is perfectly acceptable in the name of fun.

(As an aside, I would be interested in demographic information about all of you. Are most of the people I am seeing middle school-age kids who haven't learned or experienced basic rules of logic? Or are you mathematicians with PhDs who come here to let off steam and troll each other?)

For those of you who honestly analyze each leak and express hope that some of them might be true, consider these questions next time before you decide to follow one:

1) What motivation would someone have to leak information about this game to a bunch of strangers on the internet? 99.99% of Smash leaks have historically been hopeful predictions or people seeking attention.
2) What evidence does the leaker offer? Anything that is not a screenshot, line of code, or prediction that can be 100% authenticated within a reasonable amount of time is not evidence. A good fake will be just vague enough that it cannot be completely disproved.
3) How easy was it to create the leak? It takes about five minutes to write up a list of roster predictions and post it on a new account, but it takes a lot longer to meticulously photoshop a screenshot. The image leaks I've seen have been (rightfully) dismissed, but it's amusing how much more stock is placed in written rumors that require almost no effort. The more time something would take to fabricate, the more inspection it deserves.
4) Do you want the leak to be true? If so, be extremely careful with how you weight it compared to similar leaks.
5) Similarly, do you think a leak is unlikely given the proposed roster or game modes? The contents of a leak (unless they are legitimately off the rails) are not reason enough to dismiss it.
6) Where did the leak come from? Historically, leakers with real information go to well known websites before posting their leak on a throwaway GameFAQs account. Similar to newspaper journalism, the leaker will present their credentials to the editor of the website who will judge the validity of the leak. If they are convinced, they post it while keeping their source anonymous.
7) How many other leakers have taken a shot at predicting similar things? In the case of the Dedede reveal, many people (not just leakers) reasonably assumed he would be revealed with the new Kirby game. With enough people throwing around random predictions, statistically speaking one of them is bound to get a couple things right (like Ashley being an assist trophy).
8) Do one or two correct details guarantee the rest of a leak to be true? Of course not. The sheer volume of predictions can create lucky guesses.

I will briefly address the Little-Pac-Mii rumor that seems to have the biggest following here (thanks to Miles Pierre for concisely summarizing the circumstances and doing a little research, another thing most speculators can't, or don't want, to engage in). Despite being right about Wii Fit Trainer, which is admittedly a long shot and impressive if it was just a guess, the "leak" was 50% wrong in what it predicted. I think the problem people are having is that by the very nature of how Sakurai reveals his characters, we won't know if this leak was really a tip off or just a lucky guess until the game is released. Up until that point, it is possible that any of those three characters is a hidden unlockable. But it's equally possible that some or none of them are in the game. There's really no way to test that knowledge. If anything, Sal Romano should be trying to get his alleged source to predict other things.

Finally, I find it amusing to see so much hope and speculation attached to rumors I know for a fact to be jokes. Many Smashboards users have already admitted to posting fake leaks on other websites to fool their peers, and I personally witnessed people making up rumors that are still circulating this very thread. If you apply the above questions to each leak and use rational thought, I'm sure you'll be able to weed them out. I'm not here to ruin your fun; I just want to offer a more scientific approach to speculation.

 

[Arcadenik]

This is Super Smash Bros., not a science class.

 

[Johnknight1]

My opinion on leaks: Wait and see.

Eventually, there will definitely be a leak somewhere along the line (even Sakurai can probably admit this), and eventually, those of us devout to finding the true one will find it.

I not sure.
But I mean, we're talking about Namco here, if I'm correct, isn't part of the development team from Tekken helping as well? I think we're in good hands.

Street Fighter is my favorite "traditional" fighting game, but Tekken I think is hands down the best fighting game franchise of all-time. The reason I don't personally enjoy it is it takes too much to get into, because each character IMO actually has too many choices with moves and playstyle.

Soul Calibur... I'm not big on combos, but I love the presentation. They do have that noticeable Sakurai random newcomer element, with guests like Link, Spawn, the 3 Star Wars characters, Kratos, and Ezio.

What I'm getting at is that I think Namco Bandai (both the Tekken and Soul Calibur crews) were the ones behind most of the Rosalina ideas (the Tekken crew liked all the different moves of the two, the Soul Calibur crew liked the concept), Sakurai was in the same role for the Wii Fit Trainer, and the Soul Calibur crew at Namco Bandai was the most "behind" the push for the Villager, although I imagine Sakurai was definitely heavily involved there. Mega Man... was obviously a choice everyone had to be behind, especially since Mega Man (along with Miis and Pac-Man) is the last real "superstar" left that could be playable in Smash without breaking Sakurai's "rules".

So this begs the question, "what characters do we think the Tekken and especially the Soul Calibur crew will push for next?" We gotta think crazy like them. And for some reason, I keep coming back to a tag team idea (people keep saying Diddy/Dixie, but I keep thinking Plusle and Minun and the Baby Mario Bros.), a giant super huge character (these are in Soul Calibur a lot, and a good example is Nightmare; I am thinking of K. Rool), and someone with huge range, probably with a weapon like a sword or a staff (Isaac, Shulk, Lyn, and especially Takamaru come to mind).

As for the Tekken crew, I imagine they helped spoof of Bowser, Samus, and Link to where they are now, and I imagine they also helped spoof up Ganondorf, Lucario, and maybe even Mewtwo. I also imagine they'd push for a character that uses various martial arts-esk moves probably based around said martial arts (or even pro wrestling), so Little Mac may be their personal experiment (as well as the Wii Fit Trainer a bit, since she seems somewhat like that), or even say Takamaru, Pac-Man, or heck, K. Rool.

I imagine Sakurai would be drawn to crazy out there concepts. I think Ridley, Pac-Man, and Miis might be his personal forte of potential newcomers.

This is an area where I feel us thinking like roster speculators and leak truth finders is one in the same.

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

The internet's reactions to the "leaks" have been far more fascinating to me than the leaks themselves. It appears as though the vast majority of speculators and members of this forum have no conception of the scientific method, or they decide to allow their hopes for the game to override any logic they may use elsewhere, which of course is perfectly acceptable in the name of fun.

(As an aside, I would be interested in demographic information about all of you. Are most of the people I am seeing middle school-age kids who haven't learned or experienced basic rules of logic? Or are you mathematicians with PhDs who come here to let off steam and troll each other?)

For those of you who honestly analyze each leak and express hope that some of them might be true, consider these questions next time before you decide to follow one:

1) What motivation would someone have to leak information about this game to a bunch of strangers on the internet? 99.99% of Smash leaks have historically been hopeful predictions or people seeking attention.
2) What evidence does the leaker offer? Anything that is not a screenshot, line of code, or prediction that can be 100% authenticated within a reasonable amount of time is not evidence. A good fake will be just vague enough that it cannot be completely disproved.
3) How easy was it to create the leak? It takes about five minutes to write up a list of roster predictions and post it on a new account, but it takes a lot longer to meticulously photoshop a screenshot. The image leaks I've seen have been (rightfully) dismissed, but it's amusing how much more stock is placed in written rumors that require almost no effort. The more time something would take to fabricate, the more inspection it deserves.
4) Do you want the leak to be true? If so, be extremely careful with how you weight it compared to similar leaks.
5) Similarly, do you think a leak is unlikely given the proposed roster or game modes? The contents of a leak (unless they are legitimately off the rails) are not reason enough to dismiss it.
6) Where did the leak come from? Historically, leakers with real information go to well known websites before posting their leak on a throwaway GameFAQs account. Similar to newspaper journalism, the leaker will present their credentials to the editor of the website who will judge the validity of the leak. If they are convinced, they post it while keeping their source anonymous.
7) How many other leakers have taken a shot at predicting similar things? In the case of the Dedede reveal, many people (not just leakers) reasonably assumed he would be revealed with the new Kirby game. With enough people throwing around random predictions, statistically speaking one of them is bound to get a couple things right (like Ashley being an assist trophy).
8) Do one or two correct details guarantee the rest of a leak to be true? Of course not. The sheer volume of predictions can create lucky guesses.

I will briefly address the Little-Pac-Mii rumor that seems to have the biggest following here (thanks to Miles Pierre for concisely summarizing the circumstances and doing a little research, another thing most speculators can't, or don't want, to engage in). Despite being right about Wii Fit Trainer, which is admittedly a long shot and impressive if it was just a guess, the "leak" was 50% wrong in what it predicted. I think the problem people are having is that by the very nature of how Sakurai reveals his characters, we won't know if this leak was really a tip off or just a lucky guess until the game is released. Up until that point, it is possible that any of those three characters is a hidden unlockable. But it's equally possible that some or none of them are in the game. There's really no way to test that knowledge. If anything, Sal Romano should be trying to get his alleged source to predict other things.

Finally, I find it amusing to see so much hope and speculation attached to rumors I know for a fact to be jokes. Many Smashboards users have already admitted to posting fake leaks on other websites to fool their peers, and I personally witnessed people making up rumors that are still circulating this very thread. If you apply the above questions to each leak and use rational thought, I'm sure you'll be able to weed them out. I'm not here to ruin your fun; I just want to offer a more scientific approach to speculation.

Logic =/= Science. Nothing you said was scientific. It's not as though we can perform an experiment, unless you want us to dissect the brains of the people making the leaks. But then I'm really not sure what our hypothesis would be. "I predict this guys brains will be yucky and kinda pinkish," or something to that effect I guess?

 

[Substitution]

Street Fighter is my favorite "traditional" fighting game, but Tekken I think is hands down the best fighting game franchise of all-time. The reason I don't personally enjoy it is it takes too much to get into, because each character IMO actually has too many choices with moves and playstyle.

Soul Calibur... I'm not big on combos, but I love the presentation. They do have that noticeable Sakurai random newcomer element, with guests like Link, Spawn, the 3 Star Wars characters, Kratos, and Ezio.

What I'm getting at is that I think they were the ones behind most of the Rosalina ideas, Sakurai was in the same role for the Wii Fit Trainer, and the Soul Calibur crew at Namco Bandai was the most "behind" the push for the Villager, although I imagine Sakurai was definitely heavily involved there. Mega Man... was obviously a choice everyone had to be behind, especially since Mega Man (along with Miis and Pac-Man) is the last real "superstar" left that could be playable in Smash without breaking Sakurai's "rules".

So this begs the question, "what characters do we think the Tekken and especially the Soul Calibur crew will push for next?" We gotta think crazy like them. And for some reason, I keep coming back to a tag team idea (people keep saying Diddy/Dixie, but I keep thinking Plusle and Minun and the Baby Mario Bros.), a giant super huge character (these are in Soul Calibur a lot, and a good example is Nightmare; I am thinking of K. Rool), and someone with huge range, probably with a weapon like a sword or a staff (Isaac, Shulk, Lyn, and especially Takamaru come to mind).

This is an area where I feel us thinking like roster speculators and leak truth finders is one in the same.

Or maybe a character with some brand new gimmick... This is Sakurai, the one who'd go to the depths of Nintendo's history to find even just one unique addition to troll us with. But isn't that why we love him so much?

 

[Aurora Jenny]

Maybe not, Arcadenik, but it would make like a ACP's job a lot easier if he knew which ones were trolls and which are genuine rumors. Well, I mean that are meant to be taken seriously.

 

[BKupa666]

Comment

Great post, I agree with virtually all of it. With point number one, I'm curious what you would consider to be the motivation of the 0.01% of the true leakers in comparison to the attention-mongerers. Some altruistic desire to share content with the community? Some personal compulsion? Leaking just for the hell of it? Such motivations weren't really apparent through the presentation of the true Brawl leaks, so I think that one is perhaps the most difficult to apply.

Also, though I doubt you'll oblige, you revealing the false leaks you've witnessed being made would do the thread a great favor, and wouldn't ruin anyone's fun, given the flood that will undoubtedly pop up in replacement.

 

[Johnknight1]

Or maybe a character with some brand new gimmick... This is Sakurai, the one who'd go to the depths of Nintendo's history to find even just one unique addition to troll us with. But isn't that why we love him so much?

I added it to my post.

I think Pac-Man (I think Sakurai has something CRAZY for Pac-Man), Miis (I think Sakurai has something CRAZIER for Miis), Shulk (I think it writes itself, minus the sandwich), Ridley (air grab potential, the first real "air first and last" character), and K. Rool (he's pure madness, let's be honest) fit this concept.

Of course, my theories are all focusing on one party on a character. Obviously I think all parties are involved in all characters, but I am focusing on who is most involved party behind one thing or another, at least in my guesses.

Lastly, like I said before, Darth Vader, Yoda, and Vader's Apprentice were probably the biggest "WTF?" characters ever playable in a fighting game.

I imagine Soul Calibur's team as the development crew pulling stuff like, as well as their constant surprising of fans with cool playable characters (Link, Ezio, and Kratos IMO were incredible "guest character" choices), that is a big reason why Sakurai and Nintendo chose them as the primary developer of Smash 4.

 

[swordbreaker]

Did not play New Leaf, so wasn't aware he had gotten a new sweater. I just remember that blue apron from the DS and Gamecube.

Do you speak of the one that claims to know of Ashley's Assist Trophy nature in addition to the other things stated? You know... I do NOT mean to point fingers at ANYBODY... but I find it quite curious that we were just discussing the potential of him making up that story, and now all of a sudden he crops back up to say exactly that. Very curious if you ask me.

Are you accusing me? I hate the leak personally. The rest of the roster choices are too safe. It's the most popular choices minus the choices that are reasonable but aren't liked because they aren't from any of the top franchises. I mean Little-Mac is the only new Nintendo franchise character from that list. I'm actually hoping the one you are behind, the TSSZ one is true, because if Takamaru gets in I wouldn't need to play another Smash game after this one. I would have all of my characters in.

So someone came back and actually said the Ashley assist leak was false?

 

[splat]

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

Sorry if I rustled your jimmies, I wasn't targeting anyone in here (didn't even remember who said what about the ghost stuff), and meant "contributing" in terms of leak discussion specifically, not forum presence in general.

I understand that true objectivity is impossible in terms of what's strange to see in a leak, but I think blatant subjectivity, on the other hand, is pretty clear. Stuff like, "This leak is false because Bowser Jr. isn't on the roster, and I think Bowser Jr. will have some role in this game because Sakurai is looking for Mario newcomers," or something to that effect. That's what ought to be phased out of these sorts of discussions if we wish to not needlessly dismiss potentially worthy leaks, like the ChaosZero or NyaseNya ones pre-Brawl.

It's cool man. But I'm still a bit unclear as to what constitutes evidence though. For example does historical precedence count as evidence, or just interviews. or etc? For example, an argument that Birdo won't be in because I don't like Birdo obviously adds nothing. But what about an argument that Birdo won't be in because a character who has at any point been a generic enemy has never to date been in a smash bros game? What if Sakurai went on the record as saying that he hates Birdo? I think I see where you're coming form, but I'm really not sure this as black and white as I believe you believe it is. Hopefully what I believe you believe is a decent approximation of what you actually believe.

 

[Substitution]

I added it to my post.

I think Pac-Man (I think Sakurai has something CRAZY for Pac-Man), Miis (I think Sakurai has something CRAZIER for Miis), Shulk (I think it writes itself, minus the sandwich), Ridley (air grab potential, the first real "air first and last" character), and K. Rool (he's pure madness, let's be honest) fit this concept.

...No, something more obscure, someone no one would think of...
...
...We need to go deeper!

 

[BKupa666]

It's cool man. But I'm still a bit unclear as to what constitutes evidence though. For example does historical precedence count as evidence, or just interviews. or etc? For example, an argument that Birdo won't be in because I don't like Birdo obviously adds nothing. But what about an argument that Birdo won't be in because a character who has at any point been a generic enemy has never to date been in a smash bros game? What if Sakurai went on the record as saying that he hates Birdo? I think I see where you're coming form, but I'm really not sure this as black and white as I believe you believe it is. Hopefully what I believe you believe is a decent approximation of what you actually believe.

A decent approximation. An argument that a Birdo leak is fake because (s)he won't be in due to those reasons would be silly, because Sakurai has his own preferences that none of us can understand unless he spells them out in an interview. Birdo might be one of them. An argument that it's bizarre to see Birdo there due to those reasons, but that (s)he doesn't render the entire leak null and void by existing on it, is probably the best path to take.

 

[Arcadenik]

...No, something more obscure, someone no one would think of...
...
...We need to go deeper!

Duck Hunt Dog? Wandering Heroes? Toad?

 

[UltimateCyborgOverlord]

Are you accusing me? I hate the leak personally. The rest of the roster choices are too safe. It's the most popular choices minus the choices that are reasonable but aren't liked because they aren't from any of the top franchises. I mean Little-Mac is the only new Nintendo franchise character from that list. I'm actually hoping the one you are behind, the TSSZ one is true, because if Takamaru gets in I wouldn't need to play another Smash game after this one. I would have all of my characters in.

So someone came back and actually said the Ashley assist leak was false?

No no no no no. I'm not accusing you. The thing is, I've noticed alot of Smashboardians come clean about having made up rumors and things and... well I just sorta have it in the back of my mind that this may be yet another scenario like that. I'm not even gonna try and play detective and try and figure out whodunnit. I'm not that sort of person. No, the guy (or girl as she calls herself now) didn't come back and say it was false, she came back and said "see, told you so that Ashley would be an assist trophy. I made up that whole translator story because I wanted to throw Sakurai off my trail"... the latter of which is basically a discussion we were having not terribly long ago.

 

[splat]

...No, something more obscure, someone no one would think of...
...
...We need to go deeper!

Mr. Hanafuda?

 

[UltimateCyborgOverlord]

I'm actually hoping the one you are behind, the TSSZ one is true, because if Takamaru gets in I wouldn't need to play another Smash game after this one. I would have all of my characters in.

also yeah, I'm pretty confident about Takamaru, because it appears to me that Nintendo is awfully set on reviving that old game. I mean... between his appearance in Samurai Warriors 3, that whole Captain Rainbow thing, the Nintendo Land appearance of his game somehow taking priority over something more recognizable like Kirby, plus Sakurai's comment about how he wishes to revive old retro characters in very much the same way Pit and the entirety of Kid Icarus got revived via Brawl. I'm actually fairly confident about Takamaru

 

[shaggypatriot12]

It's cool man. But I'm still a bit unclear as to what constitutes evidence though. For example does historical precedence count as evidence, or just interviews. or etc? For example, an argument that Birdo won't be in because I don't like Birdo obviously adds nothing. But what about an argument that Birdo won't be in because a character who has at any point been a generic enemy has never to date been in a smash bros game? What if Sakurai went on the record as saying that he hates Birdo? I think I see where you're coming form, but I'm really not sure this as black and white as I believe you believe it is. Hopefully what I believe you believe is a decent approximation of what you actually believe.

I believingly believe that what i believe is so believable that those who do not believe it are believing wrong. In conclusion, I believe I can fly.

 

[BluePikmin11]

...No, something more obscure, someone no one would think of...
...
...We need to go deeper!

This handsome floating head here..

 

[salmonofdoubt]

Logic =/= Science. Nothing you said was scientific. It's not as though we can perform an experiment, unless you want us to dissect the brains of the people making the leaks. But then I'm really not sure what our hypothesis would be. "I predict this guys brains will be yucky and kinda pinkish," or something to that effect I guess?

The scientific method can be applied to many things, rumors and leaks included. Obviously we can't prove a vague text-based post one way or the other, but if we apply the concepts of the scientific method (and logic, which goes hand in hand) we can say "if X is not revealed by this date, this leak is partially false," instead of clinging desperately to the other parts of the leak and imagining possible scenarios in which the leaker was outsmarted by Nintendo. Or we can analyze a screenshot and determine that the image of Pacman was taken from another game; therefore it was likely created by a fan. Making a hypothesis and relying on evidence is absolutely possible with this stuff.

Great post, I agree with virtually all of it. With point number one, I'm curious what you would consider to be the motivation of the 0.01% of the true leakers in comparison to the attention-mongerers. Some altruistic desire to share content with the community? Some personal compulsion? Leaking just for the hell of it? Such motivations weren't really apparent through the presentation of the true Brawl leaks, so I think that one is perhaps the most difficult to apply.

Also, though I doubt you'll oblige, you revealing the false leaks you've witnessed being made would do the thread a great favor, and wouldn't ruin anyone's fun, given the flood that will undoubtedly pop up in replacement.

The motivation of the .01% could be anything, but the desire to share altruistically is certainly a possibility. The most important part of point number one is that each leak you read has a .01% possibility of being true because most people are motivated by selfishness, such as gaining attention. And you're right, I'm not going to reveal all of the leaks I know to be false right now. I'd much rather witness the effect it has on people than interfere too much.

 

[UltimateCyborgOverlord]

...No, something more obscure, someone no one would think of...
...
...We need to go deeper!

Oh, so something more like one of these two characters from way back when?

 

[Substitution]

Been looking around here.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_products_published_by_Nintendo
What about:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gumshoe_(video_game)

Oh, so something more like one of these two characters from way back when?

What's with that robot on the right?!.

 

[UltimateCyborgOverlord]

Been looking around here.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_products_published_by_Nintendo
What about:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gumshoe_(video_game)

What's with that robot (on the right)?!.

That robot on the right being Prin. She's one of the opponents Harry faces in Teleroboxer (Virtual Boy).

 

[Hammer B]

...No, something more obscure, someone no one would think of...
...
...We need to go deeper!

Well, you asked for it!:

 

[Substitution]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_Soukoban
How 'bout it?

 

[Louie G.]

Spoiler

Oh look! I'm not a new account! Yeah, I've been here a while. If you can grasp that fact, I come baring news. I recently got into some money and for that, I chose to travel to Japan. I hired a translator and visited Mr. Sakurai as Smash Bros. is one of my favorite series of all time. I told him if he could give me any news on the series and he reluctantly agreed.

He told me to expect quite a few newcomers and some surprises. Go ahead and take it with a grain of salt but when I get everything right, I will be the one laughing all the way to...uh...my...house.

MARIO
*Rosalina is the first and only Mario newcomer for the game.

*There were plans Waluigi to be playable but he was scrapped and his Assist has been greatly updated and is more devastating than ever before. After Waluigi, the plan was originally to have Toad playable but he was later decided to remain as Peach's B move.

*There were never any plans for Bowser Jr., Paper Mario and Daisy to be playable. The former was considered to be an Assist Trophy, but that idea was quickly rid of in favor of a cult favorite Mario character.

*Fawful is the new Mario Assist Trophy, he replaces Hammer Bro. Fawful is kind-of like this game's Mr. Resetti and he flies around the screen talking in his amazingly hilarious voice and will attack players at random.

DONKEY KONG
*The next character revealed will be Diddy Kong for Tropical Freeze's JP release date.

*There will be a DK newcomer, though. It's King K. Rool...AND Dixie Kong. K. Rool is a standalone player and the heaviest fighter on the roster. Since he is heavy, he is also very powerful and is capable of launching fighters like Kirby and Olimar off the screen with two heavy Smash attacks. He does use the blunderbuss as his final smash. He jumps in the air and releases cannonballs from the top of the screen while launching mini-cannonballs from the side of the screen. Gangplank Galleon is confirmed to be a stage.

*Dixie Kong will be paired with Diddy Kong. Although, they'll play more like Zelda/Shiek than the Ice Climbers. Dixie has her own separate moveset but her moves are not confirmed as she not fully worked on yet.

ZELDA
*There is a Zelda newcomer but who that is, I do not know. They are keeping it a real secret. I did hear the Japanese names for Ghirahim and Tingle but if they're playable, I do not know.

*Ganondorf will retain some of C. Falcon's moveset but he has been buffed. His moveset now includes his sword. The sword can be equipped by crouching down and pressing B.

FIRE EMBLEM
*The newcomer for Fire Emblem is Chrom. As if it wasn't obvious enough, he uses the Falchion as his main attack and does NOT replace Ike. Marth, Ike and Chrom are the Fire Emblem characters. Chrom is planned to be revealed to celebrate the anniversary of the very first game.

*The Assist Trophy for the series is now King Gangrel and Aversa, actually. Lyn does not return. Gangrel runs fast across the stage using his Levin Sword while Aversa flies in the air using her 'Aversa's Night' as an attack. They are considered by Sakurai to be the most "unexpected" additions.

WARIO & YOSHI
*There are no major changes but Wario's classic attire is his default attire. I dunno if movesets are changed or not.

*Ashley is Wario's Assist Trophy and replaces Kat & Ana.

METROID
*Ridley is Metroid's newcomer. They scaled him down to size. Remember that Brawl video showcasing him against the PT Trainer? He looks almost exactly like that. What they did is amazing according to Sakurai.

STAR FOX
*There are no major changes but Falco is further away from being a Fox clone and Wolf is no longer a semi-clone.

ANIMAL CROSSING
*Villager does have a female alt but nothing is changed.

*Tom Nook is the Assist Trophy alongside Mr. Resetti. He will go around randomly dropping bells, causing players to slip.

KID ICARUS
*Palutena is a newcomer. Her arsenal is almost entirely based from Uprising, is what I heard.

*Magnus is the KI Assist Trophy. He goes around swinging a sword and plays similar to Little Mac: fast, strong, but at times, suicidal.

POKEMON
*Mewtwo returns.

*Jigglypuff returns

*No cuts are made.

*Mewtwo and Lucario are not clones and their movesets barely resemble each others'.

KIRBY
*No newcomers for the Kirby series.

*Meta Knight will be revealed in the Summer of 2014, is what I remember.

MOTHER
*There are no major changes made to the Mother series.

RANDOM SERIES
*All misc. characters return with the addition of Little Mac. He looks like he does in the Wii reboot of Punch-Out!!

*WFT's male alt plays almost exactly like the female WFT.

*Yes, WFT does have a butt attack. HFT is given a headbutt instead.

*King Hippo and the Ghosts from Luigi's Mansion are Assist Trophies.

*I may have left out a few more veterans and stuff, but I am only retelling what I was told.

THIRD-PARTY
*We have Sonic and Mega Man in the third party slot.

*Snake does indeed return.

*Pac-Man will be the final newcomer revealed. Well, he won't be revealed...he'll be a secret character.

Go ahead and don't believe me. I know it's a lot to swallow but trust me, I know what I'm doing.

I love how this leak can actually be true and I wouldn't be upset at all.
In fact, this leak is extremely probable. Not to be true per se, but a lot of the ideas mentioned are very possible.

 

[Chiroz]

He was pretty spot on with the Super Mario 3D World description. Parts of it might be true, but the Smash part of it isn't, that's for sure.

No he didn't. 3D World is not open World as Mario 64 or Sunshine. It is just as linear if not more than Galaxy is. Also 3D world does not use the Gamepad except for 2 stages or "Luma-like" gimmicks which can also be performed without the gamepad. He basically got everything wrong.

 

[Comeback Kid]

So leaks are bull?

 

[Substitution]

So leaks are bull?

Not all, just most of them...

 

[Comeback Kid]

Not all, just most of them...

Who is actually trustworthy?

 

[Substitution]

Who is actually trustworthy?

At this moment, we're not sure...

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Who is actually trustworthy?

There are three that are worth watching.

The E3 leak, the Dedede leak and the Translator leak. You can look at them on the first post.


But wow, that story about the rich kid was fabricated after all? You think it's actually true?

 

[Louie G.]

I really like the Translator leak actually.
I hope it's true (except for Diddy/Dixie, but beggars can't be choosers).

 

[dezeray112]

Here, might as well bump the complete original leak, as opposed to just the APC abridged version.

Spoiler

Oh look! I'm not a new account! Yeah, I've been here a while. If you can grasp that fact, I come baring news. I recently got into some money and for that, I chose to travel to Japan. I hired a translator and visited Mr. Sakurai as Smash Bros. is one of my favorite series of all time. I told him if he could give me any news on the series and he reluctantly agreed.

He told me to expect quite a few newcomers and some surprises. Go ahead and take it with a grain of salt but when I get everything right, I will be the one laughing all the way to...uh...my...house.

MARIO
*Rosalina is the first and only Mario newcomer for the game.

*There were plans Waluigi to be playable but he was scrapped and his Assist has been greatly updated and is more devastating than ever before. After Waluigi, the plan was originally to have Toad playable but he was later decided to remain as Peach's B move.

*There were never any plans for Bowser Jr., Paper Mario and Daisy to be playable. The former was considered to be an Assist Trophy, but that idea was quickly rid of in favor of a cult favorite Mario character.

*Fawful is the new Mario Assist Trophy, he replaces Hammer Bro. Fawful is kind-of like this game's Mr. Resetti and he flies around the screen talking in his amazingly hilarious voice and will attack players at random.

DONKEY KONG
*The next character revealed will be Diddy Kong for Tropical Freeze's JP release date.

*There will be a DK newcomer, though. It's King K. Rool...AND Dixie Kong. K. Rool is a standalone player and the heaviest fighter on the roster. Since he is heavy, he is also very powerful and is capable of launching fighters like Kirby and Olimar off the screen with two heavy Smash attacks. He does use the blunderbuss as his final smash. He jumps in the air and releases cannonballs from the top of the screen while launching mini-cannonballs from the side of the screen. Gangplank Galleon is confirmed to be a stage.

*Dixie Kong will be paired with Diddy Kong. Although, they'll play more like Zelda/Shiek than the Ice Climbers. Dixie has her own separate moveset but her moves are not confirmed as she not fully worked on yet.

ZELDA
*There is a Zelda newcomer but who that is, I do not know. They are keeping it a real secret. I did hear the Japanese names for Ghirahim and Tingle but if they're playable, I do not know.

*Ganondorf will retain some of C. Falcon's moveset but he has been buffed. His moveset now includes his sword. The sword can be equipped by crouching down and pressing B.

FIRE EMBLEM
*The newcomer for Fire Emblem is Chrom. As if it wasn't obvious enough, he uses the Falchion as his main attack and does NOT replace Ike. Marth, Ike and Chrom are the Fire Emblem characters. Chrom is planned to be revealed to celebrate the anniversary of the very first game.

*The Assist Trophy for the series is now King Gangrel and Aversa, actually. Lyn does not return. Gangrel runs fast across the stage using his Levin Sword while Aversa flies in the air using her 'Aversa's Night' as an attack. They are considered by Sakurai to be the most "unexpected" additions.

WARIO & YOSHI
*There are no major changes but Wario's classic attire is his default attire. I dunno if movesets are changed or not.

*Ashley is Wario's Assist Trophy and replaces Kat & Ana.

METROID
*Ridley is Metroid's newcomer. They scaled him down to size. Remember that Brawl video showcasing him against the PT Trainer? He looks almost exactly like that. What they did is amazing according to Sakurai.

STAR FOX
*There are no major changes but Falco is further away from being a Fox clone and Wolf is no longer a semi-clone.

ANIMAL CROSSING
*Villager does have a female alt but nothing is changed.

*Tom Nook is the Assist Trophy alongside Mr. Resetti. He will go around randomly dropping bells, causing players to slip.

KID ICARUS
*Palutena is a newcomer. Her arsenal is almost entirely based from Uprising, is what I heard.

*Magnus is the KI Assist Trophy. He goes around swinging a sword and plays similar to Little Mac: fast, strong, but at times, suicidal.

POKEMON
*Mewtwo returns.

*Jigglypuff returns

*No cuts are made.

*Mewtwo and Lucario are not clones and their movesets barely resemble each others'.

KIRBY
*No newcomers for the Kirby series.

*Meta Knight will be revealed in the Summer of 2014, is what I remember.

MOTHER
*There are no major changes made to the Mother series.

RANDOM SERIES
*All misc. characters return with the addition of Little Mac. He looks like he does in the Wii reboot of Punch-Out!!

*WFT's male alt plays almost exactly like the female WFT.

*Yes, WFT does have a butt attack. HFT is given a headbutt instead.

*King Hippo and the Ghosts from Luigi's Mansion are Assist Trophies.

*I may have left out a few more veterans and stuff, but I am only retelling what I was told.

THIRD-PARTY
*We have Sonic and Mega Man in the third party slot.

*Snake does indeed return.

*Pac-Man will be the final newcomer revealed. Well, he won't be revealed...he'll be a secret character.

Go ahead and don't believe me. I know it's a lot to swallow but trust me, I know what I'm doing.

That is not a bad leak if I have to be honest, so I guess we will wait and see whether the next reveal is true in order to prove the legitimacy of the leak.