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I'm not in denial, if the Miis get revealed, big deal, I was wrong. I don't hold grudges and I don't have an agenda, I'm just trying to use my head here.
You're jumping to all sorts of conclusions. There is no way that you can figure out what position the leaker held from the information that was given. Don't be silly.
Well this is just false. He never recanted and said they were pushed back. What are you talking about? The original post was a "speculative post" about what Nintendo would show reveal. Later, after WFT was revealed, he posted an article saying 3 of the 6 he was tipped off about have been revealed and the other 3 have yet to be shown. Later, on the last day of E3 he registered here and made a post explaining exactly what his source told him and the circumstances around the reveal. There was no recant. He simply expounded and said that his source said barring an impromptu change. Which FYI does actually happen.
Again you're jumping to all sorts of conclusions here. You don't know when Sal got his information. He could have received it 2 months before E3. Meaning that unless you know when Sal was tipped off, or exactly what the position of the leaker is you're making assumptions that will lead to incorrect conclusions. In fact Sal says this:
So we know he held on to the information for an indeterminate time. We know he wasn't sure so he said nothing when he initially received it. We know he then posted it the day before E3. We do NOT know when he got the information and how outdated it may have been by the time he posted it. Again, it's entirely possible that little mac wasn't ready to be shown so when they cut the trailer they just decided to have placeholder graphics for the stage in the interim. You don't even know if the graphics for the stage were done! They literally could have just completed it. If you look at the original reveal and the stage now you'll notice a lot more differences.
Uh huh...
Oh I don't doubt it at all. Considering how each character besides Villager has come in their own digital package of sorts, I don't find it unlikely at all Sakurai could have just decided to pull from his original plan and spread the reveals out more.
So you saying I'm coming off as snarky when he clearly passed an psuedo-insult stating certain people can't think critically. I'm dumb, just not that dumb
Haha, Ok, I see your point. Sure, its possible he guessed. Its equally as possible he didn't
I would agree but... we can't always have what we want now can we
Yes, it appears the discussion ends as a non-issue. Someone already pointed out, the odds of hitting the lottery are way worse than guessing newcomers
True, perhaps a new category is needed for special cases such as Palutena and the E3 Leak
I'm not hating on the Mii, I'm just stating a fact. We already have an avatar character from a hugely popular and established video game series. It'd be a bit odd to have another one, but I'm certainly not against it.
Ah, but unlikely things can happen, right? Like I and others have said, there are tons of character requests out there. So one trying to make a believable leak will put in an obscure character. It's like getting a lottery ticket. Odds are against everybody, but somebody can will. People have won lottery tickets.
Monster Hunter isn't even a primary Nintendo franchise, in fact it's more related to Sony before 3 came out. Regardless, there are many Capcom franchises that appeared on more Nintendo systems then Sony and yet still appeared in Mv3C.
If you are talking about the GaoezHero leak, it is still up there.
You're arguing that he got lucky with 4 newcomers over him just being tipped off, which one do you really think is more likely? I would hate pac man being in this game, and Mii isn't on top of my priority list either, i'm on the leak is real side because that's the most logical side. Like SuperNintendoDisney Mentioned earlier, Occam's razor dictates the simplest theory is the favored when in explaining unknown phenomena. The simplest theory here is that he was tipped off, as opposed to him getting a "lucky guess" for one character guessed by pretty much nobody as noted by Sakurai and pretty much everyone else, predicting two "shoe-ins" (one being outright denied as smash worthy by the game creator), and "guessing" mega man.
Even if there were other guesses for WFT out there, the count would obviously be too miniscule to matter at all, regardless. Saying that someone could've guessed WFT if they thought hard enough is just plain incorrect
I know but still it's becoming more and more Nintendo with each game. Plus Capcom has always wanted to be apart of smash bros and Nintendo's fighting games.
Yet where are the leaks like this one? It's so easy yet there's only one rumor like this. It's easy to say after the fact why something is guessable. Once you see it of course it makes sense. But many people aren't that creative. And if they are they go overboard and ruin it.
Of course, I'm fully expecting Pac-Man, but not because of that leak. It's easy to have Mega Man and Pac-Man taking Sonic and Snake's respective places, third party who got in because of sheer fan request, and third party who got in because of a request. It's simply a matter of switching places, Snake got in first because of a request from Kojima, then Sonic got in because his demand shot up after Snake's reveal. Mega Man gets in because of requests right from the beginning, and Pac-Man is added at the end as a thank you to Namco from Sakurai.
"My unlikely predictions:"
I feel like we're going in circles. Are you not familiar with the leak?
It has been more Nintendo-oriented as of late, but so have many other franchises not only in Capcom but also from other companies that have stronger ties with Nintendo that could be represented. There's really no reason to oversaturate the roster with another Capcom character, especially considering that the producers of MH are heavily reluctant to add their characters to fighting games and Sakurai has spoken out against adding too many third parties to the rosters.
Does it make it any less true though? If your whole argument against this leak is that it could be done or it's not that hard to predict then you really don't have an argument. I will echo your last sentence though. On that we can agree.
What you are failing to take into account is human error and the Chinese whispers effect.
It's not really the amount of character predicated but the characters that were predicated. Specifically WFT, yes it is possible that someone just guessed her but guessing a character like WFT is similar to getting struck by lighting or winning the lottery. If the prediction would have just contained Little Mac, Megman, Villager, Pacman and Mii I guarantee you none of us would even be talking about it right now. There may predictions out there that contain those characters, hell since before brawl was released people were asking for Pacman and Megaman. Now if Rosalina was in there as well, no doubt about it, he had inside info, but these guys are not uncommon, it's just WFT. It really only boils down to weather or not you WANT to believe that it was a leak or not, cause even if they do reveal Pacman and Mii those characters are not exactly uncommon predictions, and the doubters will simply say that Sal hit that one in a million shot.
I've already taken this into account as well, I'd think that he could have heard half of them and then slapped on the other half himself.
Imagine if you were a journalist and people were giving you tips. But you have no idea of the credibility of these sources. You don't want to ruin your credibility as a journalist by posting it as fact (this could be career damaging). But you want to be involved in the Smash Bros community discussion.
This. I've been saying prepare for Mac, Pac, and Mii since the leak predicted the unguessable WII FIT TRAINER. But people had some legitimate arguments against it because the leak said they'd all be shown at E3 and they weren't...
ROB, Lucas and Wolf all over again.
Oh I think the leak is true just because of WFT, but I'm arguing against people who think it's hard to guess those other characters. No it's not, unless you honestly think a huge bulk of the wanted characters listed in sigs and around various forums are that likely. They seriously aren't.
