The situation with Geno and Mallow is an odd one. In terms of fitting Square's criteria for Smash crossover material, only Geno barely fits the bill, and likely not enough for actual, playable representation, to the point that I even doubt we're getting his Mii costume back. Despite this, his and Mallow's spirits are in the base game, SMRPG references are being added, and SMRPG is even getting referenced outside of Smash again. Square is stingy as can be, yet they're being rather relaxed when it comes to SMRPG and, by proxy, Geno and Mallow, which makes me wonder how their viewpoint is on the situation. Maybe Nintendo struck an overarching deal with them. Maybe they just don't care and will just let Nintendo do what they want with them because Geno and Mallow mean nothing to them.
In a way, it's a double-edged sword. Square's lack of ability to care about these characters means they won't be bothered to use them, but it makes me wonder if they'll be too bothered with Nintendo making a loose agreement on them and running wild as long as they have predetermined profit-sharing and proper credit. Their lack of caring results in lack of use... but it could also result in lack of giving a damn about them, to a point that their stinginess doesn't impact them in quite the same way.
For better or for worse, Geno and Mallow aren't even comparable to most of any of SE's other entities. The closest to them is Sora due to being intertwined with Disney, and he's in a completely different boat legally and financially. This means a lot of Square's patterns are against them, but they could just as easily end up in them getting tossed to Nintendo for them to do whatever. It's so hard to make heads or tails of it right now in terms of what Square thinks of them, when and if they want to use them, and how they'll use them. The same applies with Nintendo, honestly.
It's such a heartbreaking situation. Apart from misc. DLC, Geno's chances as DLC are nothing, and even for individual DLC, his chances are bleak. In terms of SMRPG getting a remake or these two seeing the limelight again outside of tiny nods, I can't even be sure of their likeliness anymore. The only one they share this state of turmoil and neglect with is Crono, and even he has a bit of a chance to come back. That secret project the director (I believe?) of CT that was being spoken of hasn't been seen yet, right? It could be something CT-related.
The fact that everyone else has relevant media to this day sans Crono, who still has a pretty decent shot at making a comeback...
It's rough, man. It's like being the runt of a litter of seven.