#HBC | Red Ryu
Red Fox Warrior
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- Jun 15, 2008
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- Milwaukee, Wisconsin
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- RedRyu_Smash
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Oh I missed my slot full claiming my powers as well welp.
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I think pretty much everyone has claimed their full character and powers since they dont seem to do much.Oh I missed my slot full claiming my powers as well welp.
The assumption is based on the general low activity mixed with the whole sanction phase being something I don't believe anyone here has played with. It certainly feels like mafia waiting to see what town does and town not doing that much either.Is there a reasoning behind this assumption? I was thinking earlier that mafia is biding their time, hoping to get themselves sanctioned in later sanctioning phases when they have more influence over the votes. Their win condition needs them to sanction two of them without regard for how many spirits have been sanctioned before, so getting one (or even more if they're willing to roll the dice on a Banishing) town sanctioned first isn't much of a disadvantage for them. It occured to me that Sabrar may have been universally townread (and sanctioned) partly because mafia didn't want to rock the boat too much and removing a strong town player isn't against their interests.
Swiss is the one claiming to be the smarter half. I did breakdown of measuring posts. I'll sign my posts somehow to make it clear which are mine. This type of breakdown I don't think would be squat in a typical game, but this game is anything but typical, I find the lack of activity quite interesting and a little terrifying so this was an attempt to read more into it.HeuristicCheese HeuristicCheese interesting breakdown there. I can’t say I’ve seen posts measured like that before. I have one request though, can we have clarification on who is making each post please? It would help with better reading your metas and knowing who thinks what.
Thank you, that wasn't that hard now, was it.in all seriousness, it was partly due to me finding their posts to be too much recaping and less content
gotta start somewhere tbh
Yeah, that's partly why I suggested extending the phase. I generally think it would be worthwile given the low activity and Rey Ryu having to catch up.Unfortunate, deadline is Sunday night (early Monday for you and you’ll probably be asleep).
If you’re not posting this weekend (unless we get an extension) you should at least leave us your reads. And your vote if you won't be back.
What are your thoughts on me, Z25 and somi scum-reading FF to some degree?My initial read on FrozenFlame had been town so that's nudged down a bit. I would be quite shocked if somitomi, Darkpit, and FateShirou were mafia and therefore the entire mafia team didn't vote this phase. But otherwise that would mean at least one mafia sheeped my vote on Sabrar which honestly I think would be more likely.
in my defense only two people so far have given a top 3 scum list, and im pretty sure we got less than 24 hoursI'm still not seeing much of a solve there, he keeps asking people for their scumreads, but this doesn't appear to factor into his reads in any way. At this point it just looks like he's trying to look busy. I also superbly dislike how he keeps ignoring or dodging questions about his reads or thinking, there's little reason for town to be cagey like this.
I don’t understand the focus here with this vote.So if "not vote" is essentially a null read, do you have any actual townreads? And if the "not vote" contains everyone you don't have a reason to vote, why is the other group split into "unsure" and "vote"?
I'm kinda baffled by FateShirou's recent activity. He apparently has mafia experience and yet his last reads list is pure newbie weirdness, there's a couple short sentences about everyone, but it's rather surface level and seems kind of non-committal to me. Comparing it with the "vote-not vote" list in #258 I can't see much correlation between the two.
##FateShirou
for now, because I can't wring anything sensible out of rereading the thread.
no bad.I actually really like somi's case on him as well. I'll bite.
##Fate
But roles are randomized along with flavor. Unless he think and consider why a person did what they did I see little reason to use this as a reasoning to clear a person.There is an interesting case to be made and yeah their voting pattern is odd but honestly so is Swiss’s like I pointed out.
AFAIK we can prove fates role but I don’t think we have a claim or can prove Swiss’s. If we can then please remind me.
This is why I say we wait to vote fate. If they prove their role and their target has that Asterik we know they aren’t lying about their cookie role.
That doesn’t mean they can’t be scum, but I see no point in scum having this as a role. It be disrupting the balance if scum got a role that in most games would auto confirm them as town and get no questions asked.
But that’s just my thoughts atm.
I think he asked for a mass claim because Swiss in the past usually has tried to rely as much as they could on play versus not getting super caught up in mechanics.When you say I do you mean you or do you mean me?
Anyway:
My point was that Swiss, when they asked for a mass claim they didn’t know the fact of the setup being random to my understanding. That means that they asked for a mass claim out of nowhere day one thinking it was a normal game, refused to try and prove themselves if they were town. As they should think of claiming in this scenario Since it makes sense to help their story. Which is why random roles or not I don’t get their reasoning here. My other problem is still in the random voting and switching when they had the votee push back and their wasn’t much of a natural progression with these votes. Which I find more problematic than anything else.
Ive just been stating my thoughts and perspective. I could definitely be over thinking it but my thoughts on thepower roles are way less of the treason I suspect Swiss of being scum.
why are you town meta reading maven? Yes it’s atypical play but I never read stuff like this as town reading meta wise.I like Z25 so far and maven's play was 100% his town meta so comfy townlean there still
When I posted that I had not realized the roles were randomized which is why I had that thought process.But roles are randomized along with flavor. Unless he think and consider why a person did what they did I see little reason to use this as a reasoning to clear a person.
Ok. Gut reads list without a reread, up to the post I’m quoting.top three scum lets go
Roles are vanilla and random to alignment, so it doesn’t make any sense to false claim. This has been discussed extensively.For the record I see on page 5 people talking about why we do not mass claim. I’m against it in this case because I think it can limit scum and if they get caught in a lie it’s a free lynch.
Somewhat, I had a secret meta reason, but because I outed it in the previous game it is no longer fully reliable.We’re the early Sabrar town reads meta based?
From my opening post in this game:This is referring to my super secret meta tell for Sabrar. Which after this post I can never use again. If Sabrar posts before 7:00 am he’s town. Refer to these two posts in this game:
Right on time.
I don’t usually do wagon analysis because I doubt the usefulness in a regular game. This is a little different though because of the sanction mechanic. I still don’t see there is much to get from it because there was no viable counterwagon except Darkpit, who was being pushed by Sabrar.Looking at Sabrar sanction wagon: z25, bessie, FrozenFlame, me. Start of this phase I had z25 as strong town lean, bessie slight town lean, and FrozenFlame slight scum read. My initial read on FrozenFlame had been town so that's nudged down a bit. I would be quite shocked if somitomi, Darkpit, and FateShirou were mafia and therefore the entire mafia team didn't vote this phase. But otherwise that would mean at least one mafia sheeped my vote on Sabrar which honestly I think would be more likely.
Haha, is this a reference to my Meta Mafia game?Above written by HeuryAlone
Haha
Thank you for getting this posted before you went V/LA for the weekend.Thank you, that wasn't that hard now, was it.
Yeah, that's partly why I suggested extending the phase. I generally think it would be worthwile given the low activity and Rey Ryu having to catch up.
I was hoping to review the Z25/Frozen fight yesterday, but the garage door fixing took longer than I thought it would, so I can only rely on my initial impression, that it left both sides a bit grimy. I think Z25 is onto something about Frozen's lack of progression, but the case got a bit overblown by taking almost every single post Frozen made and interpreting them in the most damning way possible. Frozen has pointed this out and I'm inclined to think Frozen wouldn't buddy his actual mate like Z25 is suggesting, although there seems to be a weird connection between Frozen and Fate that I can't really place. Overall, I'm leaning towards agreeing with Z25, reinforced slightly by my general townread of the slot.
Coming back to the Fate-Frozen connection for a moment, I don't know if they're really mates and my gut says no, but I do think there's a good chance one of them is a demon here.
Wooo
DarkPit/Red Ryu
Z25
HeuryCheese
bessie
FrozenFlame
FateShirou
Booo
Since I'm not sure when I can come back
##FateShirou
I'm still not seeing much of a solve there, he keeps asking people for their scumreads, but this doesn't appear to factor into his reads in any way. At this point it just looks like he's trying to look busy. I also superbly dislike how he keeps ignoring or dodging questions about his reads or thinking, there's little reason for town to be cagey like this.
We should have about 30 hours remaining. somitomi already said he would be gone for the weekend, and deadline is very early Monday morning in his time zone (Europe). If we have another 24 hours then he has Monday night to post.in my defense only two people so far have given a top 3 scum list, and im pretty sure we got less than 24 hours
on the extension talk, you have to honestly tell me if you would use the extra time, last time when laser gave us more time we did not use it
FINALLY someone gets it.too much on use dog picture stuff with bessie being fluff.
I treat it as just giving off a mood to a post or event. Like now where I feel like I am on a good mood being back in mafia.
okWoof
Darkpit/Red Ryu
HeuristicCheese
Z25
Frozen Flame
FateShirou
somitomi
Grr
Interesting. I have a suspicion that this response is because you do not like your placement on my list. How about you come up with some reasons you think I am scum, instead of just throwing out an accusation?ok
this is excellent
i have a susipicion that you bessie are unable to come up with theories or any content what-so-ever because you are scum and you know our alignment
why is fate scum, why is ff scum and why is somi scum
go a bit further why do you read darkpit as your highest town rating?
Moving to D2, I feel that it took too long for somitomi to understand what I originally found suspicious in his claim, and that he still does not understand why I was suspicious of his reaction to this line of questioning, and I feel this is deliberate. I think it is unfortunate that he will be V/LA for the remainder of the phase (barring extension) but I do like that somitomi made #645 before he left for the weekend.Analysis
1. somitomi completely fails to understand my initial ping; I explained several times so I think this is deliberate. He also fails to recognize that his reactions are reinforcing my suspicion.
2. somitomi’s votes have all been for weak scum reads (he has said that his vote for FateShirou and Swiss were weak and he was sheeping with the Swiss vote, and in #441 he claims his suspicion of me is to a lesser extent than Swiss).
3. somitomi is concerned LaserGuy is buddying him and claims that he is scum reading LaserGuy, but has not voted for him.
4. somitomi ends the day with a vote on me in #446 for “wine-adjacent and gut-feely” reasons, even though in #440 I was a weak suspicion (lesser than Swiss) and Laser was a possible scum read.
I started to think about this and might work on it tomorrow if I have time.I think it’s easier to work on pairs. Trios has so many possibilities that it’s way harder to narrow down, at least with one scum flip we can gain a better understanding and better chance at nailing a duo than a trio imo. Trios will usually work to separate themselves, but duos can end up smartly communicating with mates throughout the game in my personal experience. So I think it’s better to start small than big there.
tinfoil theoryFrozen returns near deadline #360 and switches his vote from Swiss to LaserGuy (it appears he is still scum reading both). FateShirou follows this vote and Frozen is hard townreading FateShirou. Frozen is thinking about the sanction and judgement mechanics early in the game which I like.
are you serious, why would i care about my placement on ur list, I'm loud and obnoxious as town and im playing that style here, does it work? no LOLInteresting. I have a suspicion that this response is because you do not like your placement on my list. How about you come up with some reasons you think I am scum, instead of just throwing out an accusation?
And, um, is my placement of somitomi on the bottom of my list like a total complete surprise to you? You really never saw any indication in my content that I might be scum reading him? Or to a lesser extent you? Have you even read anything I have posted or are you ignoring all my content because you don't like my style?
You've asked several people who their scumreads were on D1 as well and I haven't seen any indication that the replies have influenced your opinion in any way. You also seem to be rather preoccupied with other people's reads and that's not a particularly townie mindset.in my defense only two people so far have given a top 3 scum list, and im pretty sure we got less than 24 hours
Funny, I could've sworn some vote shuffling took place in the extra time. What I really want to know is why you're in such a hurry to end the phase all the time. What negative impact does an extension have?on the extension talk, you have to honestly tell me if you would use the extra time, last time when laser gave us more time we did not use it
Perhaps it escaped your notice that bessie was the first to vote me on D1 and didn't switch until the very last moment.and yes i read ur back and forth with somi and all ur posts regarding somi, are you going to vote for them now or what?
I do think in reading your reads lists, we could make a good set of trios depending on the flip today. I still think starting with Duos is better because if we nail a second scum, we then have two scum players to look at and see how they interacted with everyone and if anyone else in particular has had weird interactions with those scum that could lead to the third scum flipping.I started to think about this and might work on it tomorrow if I have time.
This was my main point with Frozen the other day. Their change I’m vote and how it leads to others changing feels less like town, more like a scum coming in to take advantage of the vote. I don’t see Frozen naturally changing votes unless it’s to save someone.tinfoil theory
Scum FF comes into chat and sees a leading wagon with somi, decides to better to townread one of the most scumread people(me) and get rid of what in their eyes are a stronger town player in laserguy, they know what our alignment is
Whats more beneifical for scum to die, me, somi or laserguy? it definetly wasnt me since i was being scum-read so much B1. they can push for me whenever they wanted as i didnt really have a good S1 either
##FrozenFlame
are you serious, why would i care about my placement on ur list, I'm loud and obnoxious as town and im playing that style here, does it work? no LOL
and yes i read ur back and forth with somi and all ur posts regarding somi, are you going to vote for them now or what?
cuz you guys wont use itFunny, I could've sworn some vote shuffling took place in the extra time. What I really want to know is why you're in such a hurry to end the phase all the time. What negative impact does an extension have?
If I was in the game I don't think I would have pushed Laser like people did tbh.Nothin about this screams, pro town or pro scum. Its exactly as you said, uneeded. Need I remind you though.
You literally kick started the wagon for Laser, by asking others if they wanted to vote for him, or bringing up your thoughts on him.
Despite as I said, your reads were not on Laser, before you came back. The progression here feels bad to me, which Is why I didn't like the way the wagon went down.
Am I wrong to think when I read answer and previous posts here, this is arm chair stuff that doesn't push any real direction? When I play mafia I try to make my thoughts clear and then push a direction to get moving.So if bessie did the same thing I was doing earlier, why do you want to flip bessie first?
Oh, and that doesn't really answer the question about bessie's case.
I was basically following Z25, yes.
No, I'm annoyed because you never addressed the logical problem I pointed out several times. I guess I can only blame myself for spilling wine over it, but it's still frustrating that you don't even acknowledge this issue with your theory.
Naturally I do, but clarifying takes time and I wasn't sure it'd be a worthwile to invest it in a debate that was rather stuck in a loop at that point.
I've been scum with Frozen once (it was my second game on the site) and I think we didn't interact a lot in the game thread, just enough to not make the lack of interaction obvious. I don't know if that's what he always does as scum, but I don't think having a new teammate is any reason to buddy them in thread.
Frozen already clarified that tunneling remark on P2 after LaseGuy similarly interpreted tunneling as scumreading [#55], although he did scumread Sabrar later, so I think this argument about what tunneling means isn't very relevant here.
If you had to pick one of the two to lynch, who would you lynch and why?Started with reread of D1 Z25. Nothing pinged me as scummy, his tunnel on Swiss looked townie to me due to misinformed pov.
---
Sidenote: FateShirou displays the same at various points, however in his case I'm just a tiny bit paranoid and can imagine a scum-buddy advising him to ramp up his style. Outbursts like #413 are either honest or extremely calculated. And yes, I'm aware that that is not a good read.
---
Next I had a look at D1 FrozenFlame before re-reading Z25's case so I could have a fresh and hopefully impartial view.
- I don't like the 'protip' in #48 because it just doesn't make sense. Giving a cookie offers no actual mechanical benefit or disadvantage, signalling a sus can be stated instead in the thread itself, if FateShirou is sanctioned then the meaning has to be explained before so that we can interpret it and the cookie can be refused. There is no possible scenario where FateShirou not 'showing his hand' is beneficial.
- not liking #154 after #153. If FrozenFlame thinks that Darkpit's answer signals "like don't look at me, ask everyone else please." then I don't believe scumbuddies distancing themselves is a thought that would normally occur to him as the whole exchange would be scripted in this case and much more polished.
- #370 hasn't aged well but otherwise getting townie vibes from FrozenFlame's content near (original) deadline.
- I find it funny how FrozenFlame explains in #459 that he is sus of Swiss and LaserGuy for 'buddying' him, and then does completely the same to me in #463, #464 and #466.
Now we can take a look at Z25's case starting in #502:
"This is just the start of Frozen trying to throw shade so to speak on random users. Which makes no sense as a day one play from town."
Disagree, expressing a sus is not necessarily 'throwing shade'.
"A few posts later and now frozen is trying to frame Sabrar as setting them up to tunnel others."
It has already been clarified by FrozenFlame that this was not the reason.
"-Laser is buddying Frozen?
How da hell does this make any sense. The two laser posts I quoted show nothing of the sort. Laser has literally only responded to them twice at this point, and that behavior sure as hell wasn't buddying."
The quoted post LaserGuy saying that FrozenFlame is likely town. FF already explained how he saw that as buddying. This read is incorrect and exaggerated.
"From an outside perspective, it would have made no sense to town read Maven,"
Why? I've also town-read Maven.
"Fate and Frozen starting buddying each other here to push the Laser Lynch."
Why do you think that scum-buddies would be openly buddying?
I'm going to stop here. Z25 brings up some good points on occasion but overall the case seems to be very biased.
I like FrozenFlame's response in #529 except for this part:
"you love to repeat "pit is playing well" and similar vacuous but positive descriptions of his play without actually unpacking how you determined his play to actually be genuine townie. you're literally just describing his play as good/town over and over without giving reasons for it and act like we're just supposed to take your word for it. "
I town-read Darkpit for pretty much the same things that Z25 does and Z25 actually gave his reasons for doing it. The characterization described above is incorrect.
FrozenFlame continues to misrepresent Z25's statements in #533 (also pointed out later by Z25) and it feels he's misrepresenting Darkpit as well in #536.
Finally I really like Z25's response in #540.
So what is my conclusion? I have no freaking idea. I will let you know later. Or maybe not. It just hurts my head.
Ok so back up a bit and lets says Frozen is town, just hypothetically.If fate and frozen are both scum, they could have had the idea to push laser because they saw him as a stronger player. Laser is pretty experienced at these games and usually can contribute pretty well and they seem to be liked a lot in games I’ve seen or played with them. If I thought I could set up an easy lynch of a strong town player, I’d do it.
Like I said the Frozen reason doesn’t add up. You dont 180 like that. Not to mention continually ignoring these evidence i put for Dark Pit town just doesn’t make sense either imo as I’ve been saying.
I dislike the bolded.Vote for me
FriendShirou
Pros:
You get rid of a question mark (me) and get my confirmed town read
Cons:
I'm up there if we reach judgment phrase
xD
I'm not comfortable voting for darkpit
im still would rather look at other options
Swiss or Z25 or sabrar(tho the more i see them post the more vary i am of them)
Like what is this?
theres two votes right now and they arnt on the same player
what early hammer are we avoiding ?
I will be around till EoD
lets hope more people show up then on banish 1
I think pushing laser just came kinda of out of nowhere, that I don’t see this lynch haven’t naturally formed. There feels like more intent was put into the laser bus considering the rest of that phase had gone the opposite direction from laser. Maybe scum just capitalized on an easy lynch from someone who was considered suspicious early that day, and it doesn’t matter that it’s late specifically. I do have a feeling though laser was a more likely target though.If I was in the game I don't think I would have pushed Laser like people did tbh.
This feels like the last game I played in DGames when Laserguy got lynched day 1 because people just bandwagoned, he was off, and it felt weak sauce. Here I am still trying to grasp whyhe got lynched outside of a scramble lynch.
bessie, FateShirou, Sabrar, FrozenFlame
bessie
FateShirou
Sabrar
#HBC | FrozeηFlame
Could you all give me a run down again of why you voted for laser guy over say anyone else? I think I would have rather pushed Somi or Sabrar if I were around, though Sabrar did improve at the end of day 1 in my eyes.
It’s cause I’m that convinced that FF is scum.Ok so back up a bit and lets says Frozen is town, just hypothetically.
Then what do we do?
You seem pretty focused on FF, but I don't know where else you stand on things off hand.
I ain't taking notes like I usually do.
there isnt anything we do because if that happensOk so back up a bit and lets says Frozen is town, just hypothetically.
Then what do we do?
You seem pretty focused on FF, but I don't know where else you stand on things off hand.
yes perhaps somi was the better optionCould you all give me a run down again of why you voted for laser guy over say anyone else? I think I would have rather pushed Somi or Sabrar if I were around, though Sabrar did improve at the end of day 1 in my eyes.