Sorcerer's 11 Open

[ExLight]

I am not sure how we are supposed to apply Deus Ex Light Mafia if we'd always be over majority or at majority in lylo.

yea that mechanic had me scratching my head since the game begun lmao

 

[ExLight]

Reading ZZ5 over again, I see no real effort to sort players from him. The only questioning he has done, has been to UP, Osie, and myself. As Rax has said, ZZ5 has only been giving content in response to questions from others. He has a scum lean in #535 on Ex but keeps his vote on Lore. No change in read on ZZ5.

did he only interact with me in that post?
that's kinda lame

 

[funnier6]

I am not sure how we are supposed to apply Deus Ex Light Mafia if we'd always be over majority or at majority in lylo.

Because of the sorcerer dummy

Also I really dont see the purpose of keeping hunter hidden when it's not like they dont have to kill all confirmed town anyway so it'd be like a free taunt (haha you cant kill me nana nana na na)

Like the point being we have this ace where we can get an extra mislynch in because if we dont Lynch Z than either we have permanent plus one to parity for the rest of the game or they kill each other in the night

It's basically an Ex approved game breaking strategy where we just cant possibly lose

 

[ranmaru]

ExLight His only interaction with you was his #1309, which was him talking about mechanics with you. No questioning what so ever, even though he had you as a scum lean.

 

[ExLight]

I have to rethink about the hunter but I don't think it's game breaking at first sight

 

[ranmaru]

I'll think more about the hunter and setup later. I'm tired, going to take a break. Zen, I'm interested in your take on the setup as well, and reads. Later.

 

[Xivii]

I think keeping hunter hidden is best so that mafia doesn't know who to kill.

 

[ranmaru]

Dang it Zen you had to pop up just now. Can you talk to me about my posts last page.

 

[ExLight]

I think keeping hunter hidden is best so that mafia doesn't know who to kill.

They'll prolly kill you and Py first, so we gotta consider how it will look like by D4

 

[Xivii]

I'm actually heading out. bbl!

 

[ranmaru]

Alright. I'll be out then, but talk to me later ok.

 

[ExLight]

8T-3W
8T-2W; 7T-2W

We mislynch non-hunter twice, and scum kills Xivii and Pythag:
6T-2W; 5T-2W
4T-2W; 3T-2W

Left:
1 Hunter, 2 Vanillas vs. Z25 + ?

if Hunter outted themselves we'll be forced to lynch Z25 and we win because they can't lynch or Nightkill the hunter and it counts as two people

 

[ExLight]

yea, I can see how it can be gamebreaking
but they can try to force a tie depending on how the rules work tho

 

[ExLight]

if Hunter outted themselves we'll be forced to lynch Z25 and we win because they can't lynch or Nightkill the hunter and it counts as two people

ACTUALLY NEVERMIND
If they kill the Hunter and he shoots Town we lose

 

[ExLight]

I'd prefer the Hunter not to out themselves because if he can hit Z25 it will be great

 

[funnier6]

I'd prefer the Hunter not to out themselves because if he can hit Z25 it will be great

The basis of this being there's no way he gets shot before Xiv and Pythag anyway so keeping it a secret isnt helping anybody

I think if we cant lynch the last wolf in the next two lynches and have the wrong person selected for the vengeful kill than we really just didnt deserve the win lol

Especially if the hunter is within the poe, it just makes everything cake

 

[ExLight]

The basis of this being there's no way he gets shot before Xiv and Pythag anyway so keeping it a secret isnt helping anybody

if they out themselves then they'll be kingmaker in -Lo; if they let themselves get lynched and take Z25 with them then we'll have one more town in -Lo and it will be a collective decision rather than a one-man-call

 

[ExLight]

8T-3W
8T-2W; 7T-2W

We mislynch non-hunter twice, and scum kills Xivii and Pythag:
6T-2W; 5T-2W
4T-2W; 3T-2W

If we have an outed Hunter we'll have to lynch Z25 because there a literal 0 chance they'll shoot the hunter while they're alive
3T-1W; then during the night phase mafia will risk it all in a 67% chance of winning and shoot the Hunter, who will have to pick correctly between 2 Town and 1 Mafia (we can change this to 1 Town or 1 Mafia if we vote for a No Lynch at some point tho).

Now, if we have a non-outed alive Hunter, mafia only has a 33% chance of hitting the Hunter, which means only a 22% chance of them winning during that night; and if the hunter survives and outs themselves on the night after it will be a guaranteed non-defeat for Town (even if they mislynch then we'll have the hunter alive that counts as 2 players. and it will either be a tie or a win).

And if we mislynch the Hunter while Z25 is alive we don't risk its shot being used on a town, so it's maximum effectiveness.

Yea, I'm not in favor of the Hunter claiming.

 

[funnier6]

if they out themselves then they'll be kingmaker in -Lo; if they let themselves get lynched and take Z25 with them then we'll have one more town in -Lo and it will be a collective decision rather than a one-man-call

Why on earth would you let them be lynched and not just lynch Z

Thats ridiculous

And you assume it ever comes to -LO which I dont think it will

Theres like three people left in most people's poe's so removing one makes it basically impossible not to hit scum over the next two days

Naturally the one time I have a BIG PLAN you disagree

 

[ExLight]

tl; dr

Hunter outting themselves midly increases our chances during Day Phase, but it massively increases Mafia's chance of winning later in the game
so no, I'm completely against the Hunter outting themselves

Why on earth would you let them be lynched and not just lynch Z

because their shot is mandatory
I literally just posted the calculations funnier

 

[ExLight]

Theres like three people left in most people's poe's so removing one makes it basically impossible not to hit scum over the next two days

Naturally the one time I have a BIG PLAN you disagree

People's PoEs have flaws :stare:

 

[ExLight]

Best case scenario is if Py is the Hunter because then Mafia is completely screwed tho lmfao

 

[Pythag]

tl; dr

Hunter outting themselves midly increases our chances during Day Phase, but it massively increases Mafia's chance of winning later in the game
so no, I'm completely against the Hunter outting themselves


because their shot is mandatory
I literally just posted the calculations funnier

Weren’t you pretty eager earlier in the day to claim? I think you mentioned it twice

 

[ExLight]

Weren’t you pretty eager earlier in the day to claim? I think you mentioned it twice

yea, I changed my mind after doing the calcs

 

[ExLight]

I think Ran and Osie were more eager than me tho

 

[funnier6]

tl; dr

Hunter outting themselves midly increases our chances during Day Phase, but it massively increases Mafia's chance of winning later in the game
so no, I'm completely against the Hunter outting themselves


because their shot is mandatory
I literally just posted the calculations funnier

And I literally just said that if they cant make a correct decision with that few players after two mislynches inside the poe then lol we just dont deserve it

People's PoEs have flaws :stare:

It's a one in three chance at worst and it probably wont even come to that

Best case scenario is if Py is the Hunter because then Mafia is completely screwed tho lmfao

No it isnt? That's actually the worst scenario

He wouldve been cleared with his claim for one so thats one less town clear

But if he gets shot than we have a really good chance of losing two town plus we lose our extra bit of parity

And thats one day before that wouldve been a good thing

I really dont see how you can possibly tell me thats bad for mafia when the scenario I gave was way way worse

 

[ExLight]

No it isnt? That's actually the worst scenario

wut, no isn't
they're guaranteed to hit him, he hits their scum and we get an extra phase and then scum has to reduce our PoE with their nightkills

 

[funnier6]

wut, no isn't
they're guaranteed to hit him, he hits their scum and we get an extra phase and then scum has to reduce our PoE with their nightkills

That requires us not lynching Z for the next two days which I thought you just said was a bad idea

 

[ExLight]

And I literally just said that if they cant make a correct decision with that few players after two mislynches inside the poe then lol we just dont deserve it

I feel like we don't deserve to win if multiple remaining townies can't properly make the correct decision rather than only one person mkay
It's literally the same when I tried to gladiate Moe and everyone kept talking **** to me on how it was selfish and how town should be able to discuss it rather than one person

 

[ExLight]

That requires us not lynching Z for the next two days which I thought you just said was a bad idea

no, I'm fine with keeping Z alive as a Hunter target as long as we can
I removed my vote from him for this reason

I think claiming Hunter is a bad idea

 

[funnier6]

I feel like we don't deserve to win if multiple remaining townies can't properly make the correct decision rather than only one person mkay
It's literally the same when I tried to gladiate Moe and everyone kept talking **** to me on how it was selfish and how town should be able to discuss it rather than one person

Yeah because that's controlling the lynch, which is ROOD

This is basically a 1x vig and vigs can do as they like

 

[funnier6]

no, I'm fine with keeping Z alive as a Hunter target as long as we can
I removed my vote from him for this reason

I think claiming Hunter is a bad idea

I don't really think it makes a difference but whatever

Who do you want to lynch today then

 

[ExLight]

Who do you want to lynch today then

I'll have to reread the thread based on the new info

I was scum reading you and Ran, but with the new info I might be able to find some new interactions

 

[funnier6]

I'll have to reread the thread based on the new info

I was scum reading you and Ran, but with the new info I might be able to find some new interactions

I like how everyone said they were scum reading Ran and literally nobody even voted there

I'd like an essay on why I'm scum please

I guess I'll go ISO

 

[Pythag]

no, I'm fine with keeping Z alive as a Hunter target as long as we can

Trying to figure out how I think about this.

You’d rather scum hunt around Z, in the hopes of hitting the other scum or the hunter?

 

[ExLight]

He's hard to read
I feel like he's staring through my soul while typing and I don't know if it is because he's scumreading me

Trying to figure out how I think about this.

You’d rather scum hunt around Z, in the hopes of hitting the other scum or the hunter?

Hitting the second scum guarantees our win, so that clearly

 

[funnier6]

He's hard to read
I feel like he's staring through my soul while typing and I don't know if it is because he's scumreading me

Huh?

Also hi Pyth I also had that opinion

 

[funnier6]

I'm looking back at Z's case on Ex and not really seeing what about that screams partners with Ex lol ranmaru

 

[Wiisp]

I don't see the point like Z25 knows he's outted, he's not going to spew
at best he tries to cc Xivii, not killing him today yields no benefits

 

[Z25]

Well it was just Z's I was waiting for really.

Vote: Z25

Wolf.

Bold play, but why wait for my read?