Sorcerer's 11 Open

[ExLight]

Oh wait the seer can still find wolves. Never mind, not that bad actually

oh you thought it would mess all seer results

 

[ranmaru]

Yeah, we good.

 

[ranmaru]

Alright, you got it.

Poyzin
Osieorb
Xivii
Raxxel
Funnier
ExLight
Ranmaru
Kary
Z25
Pythag
Wiisp

It’s really simple right now. I have no reason to delve head first into wine at this moment in time because anybody’s alignment can be fabricated D1, but it’s only after the flips begin to happen that people’s true alignments are revealed.

I hope you don’t mind, but I’m going to have to pass for a couple hours. Call it scummy if you’d like, but I’m on mobile and that list should suffice for whatever you need at this very moment.

 

[Pythag]

I'm Seer.

 

[ranmaru]

Oml and I’m still phone posting. It’s fine I guess, but you’ll have to go solely on text for now because I’m too tired to go for too much quoting so I’ll use post numbers. I’m currently lying in bed, but I have time to talk.

Osie. Osie is one of the strongest townreads at this point that I’ve had in any game. All of their posts are either give me town vibes or give me nothing. #847 is a recent example on this page that strikes me as incredibly town, but I could support any of their posts basically.

Xivii. Xivii is another townie, however they have many more posts that could come from either alignment. In the contrary, they don’t have any scummy posts, and plenty of townie posts to go off of too. It also helps that Osie vs Xivii looks TvT, but I’d say that Xivii has been doing a bit more coasting recently in this phase, i.e. they haven’t been providing much insight beyond asking questions and general posts. Still an easy townread, but something that caught my eye. I feel like Xivii is capable of being a top-tier WW who is flying beneath my nose, so Ill he examining the flip toDay and see what that means for Xivii.

I like ExLight’s content; I felt like our conversation was productive and it helped me get a better feel for ExLight in this game. I do think that they are starting to get too tinfoily, but I don’t fault them as considering all possibilities as scum is the only way we can progress the game, and it clearly shows that ExLight is willing to make difficult reads if it means they can theorize overlooked situations. To that point, I’m probably going to reconsider my townreads anyway on D2. Even if I say that Osie is my top townread at this moment, it would be absurd to give them a free pass for the rest of the game in my book.

My read on Raxxel is getting weaker overtime. It could be just me, but I feel like they’ve been distancing themselves more and more from the thread as the day goes on. I haven’t found anything scummy there though, and the town posts are clearly present. I am a bit concerned because they don’t seem to be going out of their way to give unprompted reads, but that would make me a bit of a hypocrite as the reason I’m doing this now is because of Ranmaru’s request. And no, it’s not because I’m “doing what I’m told as scum”, it’s to address the fact that people believe that all I’ve done this game is ask questions, but so don’t believe that to be the case, so I’m putting all of my reads in one location.

I’m going to put funnier’s read in the next post because I got a ton of notifications saying that funnier quotes me so I want to take care of those first. With that being said, I’m going to make it into a Part 2.

I also want to cover some other things people have quoted me for, so I’ll do that.

 

[Wiisp]

unvote:

 

[osieorb18]

"The Sorcerer, while evil, is not technically a Werewolf and will return as "Not Werewolf."

The chance of that happening is less than 25%.

 

[Wiisp]

so there's no counter train to this currently? Nice
Idk who the vote right now

 

[ranmaru]

I completely disagree. Ex saying that Pythag’s intent was to make him super scummy may be incorrect, at least it is to me. But, that’s ExLight’s interpretation of the events, and doesn’t make him more or less town or scum. I also wouldn’t call it an attack. What it does tell is that Pythag and ExLight are probably not aligned, but that information can’t do many favors on D1 without any flips.

ExLight wanting time “shut down any scum speculation” is your interpretation and you’re free to believe that.

Don't think this is a good interpretation of Ex's actions towards Pythag.

 

[Wiisp]

Xivii
Who were ur 3 targets?

 

[osieorb18]

The chance of that happening is less than 25%.

Actually, it's worse. It's less than 2%.

 

[osieorb18]

ranmaru The chance of Pythag being sorcerer is less than 2% (Rounds to 1.9%), so we don't ever lynch them day 1.

 

[ranmaru]

That's fair, and I realized that Seer can target wolves and get a bingo so it's fine.

 

[Raxxel]

Xivii
Who were ur 3 targets?

Ex and Funnier

 

[Wiisp]

vote: Kamy

 

[ranmaru]

oh you thought it would mess all seer results

To be clear, I forgot about the part that Seer can find wolves still, not that I thought that Sorcerer would mess with all the results. What I do know is that it still makes clears less effective, though. So as long as seer focuses on checking to find a red, and not to just clear, the role will be used well.

 

[osieorb18]

vote: Kamy

This:

Also this:

 

[Pythag]

This self-evaluates

you and osie both said this. What does that mean in this context?

 

[Wiisp]

vote: Kary

 

[osieorb18]

To be clear, I forgot about the part that Seer can find wolves still, not that I thought that Sorcerer would mess with all the results. What I do know is that it still makes clears less effective, though. So as long as seer focuses on checking to find a red, and not to just clear, the role will be used well.

Sorcerer is just a Godfather Sympathiser with a Seer Cop. They aren't a Reflexive Obsessive Compulsive Tailor.

 

[ExLight]

The chance of that happening is less than 25%.

it's 12,5% N0
Because if he got a town result that means that Py is either town or Sorcerer, which comes from a pool of 8 players
Since there's only one false result then it is 1/8 chance

 

[osieorb18]

I find it kinda cool that my ****posting was funny enough to pull a random administrator ( Strong Badam ) into the thread to like my post.

 

[Pythag]

Sorcerer is just a Godfather Sympathiser with a Seer Cop. They aren't a Reflexive Obsessive Compulsive Tailor.

This is me realizing I know so little about mafia.

 

[osieorb18]

it's 12,5% N0
Because if he got a town result that means that Py is either town or Sorcerer, which comes from a pool of 8 players
Since there's only one false result then it is 1/8 chance

No, because if one of those 3 players is a wolf it changes the chances, and they can be a wolf.
I did the calculation correctly.

> (.1*.1*.1)+.5*(.1*.7*.1)+.333333333333333*(.1*.7*.6)
.018499999999999986

 

[ranmaru]

Ex, what are your thoughts of UP now?

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Not usually one for vulgarity, but "holy ****" is the only thought going through my head due to the TWELVE FREAKING PAGES posted since yesterday. This is actually insane, I've behind in my classes so I had to use my freetime to do work, but this is going to take the rest of the night to read.

Mind as well start now I guess. Be on YouTube for 15 minutes and I'll recap where I left off when I fell asleep last night.

 

[ExLight]

No, because if one of those 3 players is a wolf it changes the chances, and they can be a wolf.
I did the calculation correctly.

I mean, my calc considers that he already got a result on Py which implies a town check already flipped
not sure if I follow yours

Ex, what are your thoughts of UP now?

disappearing when two town wagons form after being called out for bombarding players with questions is really sus yea
oh he posted while I was typing this lessee

 

[osieorb18]

Sorcerer is just a Godfather Sympathiser with a Seer Cop. They aren't a Reflexive Obsessive Compulsive Tailor.

This is me realizing I know so little about mafia.

- Godfather = Shows up as town regardless of alignment.
- Sympathiser = Mafia member without access to the nightkill who knows who the other Mafia members are, but is not in their chat and is not known by the wolves. Shows up as town to checks and occasionally on flip depending on host.
- Seer Cop = Player who can check another player to see whether or not that other player is a Seer.

- Reflexive = Happens when they are targeted.
- Obsessive = Must target the same person every time they target.
- Compulsive = Must target every Night.
- Tailor = Reverses alignment results on their target.

There's another role like Tailor that specifically sabotages Cops...

It's sorta like a Bartender or a Modifier role...

 

[ranmaru]

sup frozen

 

[osieorb18]

I mean, my calc considers that he already got a result on Py which implies a town check already flipped
not sure if I follow yours

No, the relevant question is whether or not Py is likely to be the sorcerer.

There are three scenarios, which can be added together via additive probability.

First off, if Xivii guesses the two wolves and sorcerer exactly, then they will always get a result on the sorcerer, so we're just looking for the probability of that exact guess which is... Oh hey, I made a calculation error. Oh well. Still close.

(.1*.111111111*.125)

If the grouping is Sorcerer + 1 wolf + 1 town, then the probability is .5 that Xivii gets a sorcerer result, so:

.5*(.1*.111111111*.142857)

If the grouping is Sorcerer + 2 town, then the probability is .33333333 that Xivii gets a sorcerer result, so:

.33333333*(.1*.77777777*.75)

The total probability is additive since we're counting cases, so:

> (.1*.111111111*.125)+.5*(.1*.11111111*.142857)+.33333333*(.1*.77777777*.75) =
.0216270

Not far off and still miniscule.

 

[osieorb18]

sup frozen

Uhh... what? Is this directed towards me?

 

[ranmaru]

Uhh... what? Is this directed towards me?

nah frozenflame that is viewing just said hi even though he can't say anything haha

 

[osieorb18]

nah frozenflame that is viewing just said hi even though he can't say anything haha

Ah.

 

[ranmaru]

Never have seen Frozen (the movie) actually, but I have played chrono trigger and chrono cross

 

[osieorb18]

Never have seen Frozen (the movie) actually, but I have played chrono trigger and chrono cross

No wonder you didn't get the movie reference.

 

[ranmaru]

which reference? :think:

 

[osieorb18]

Yeah, I opened my filter to 80% this game, so people commenting on how many pages there are shouldn't be too surprised.

 

[osieorb18]

which reference? :think:

"I'm as cold as Anna's heart.

I'm not Elsa enough today, I guess"

 

[osieorb18]

"I'm as cold as Anna's heart.

I'm not Elsa enough today, I guess"

Or however I worded it...

 

[ranmaru]

Yeah, I opened my filter to 80% this game, so people commenting on how many pages there are shouldn't be too surprised.

it doesn't help that I'm in this game