Here's my set from this weekend vs Sinji, who is considered one of the best Pac-Man mains in the world.
I end up losing the set, but I think that's due to his better adaptation to my style and me flubbing inputs round 3.
I'd like to hear what things I'm doing wrong/right so I can improve for next time, as well as hopefully use this as a way to generate discussion and provide more insight to the match-up.
You're doing what you need to do. Just do what I said to Seagull regarding trampline, and
stop messing with the hydrant. You only hit Sinji with it once @6:51, and that's because he got spooked and jumped when he didn't need to. For trampoline, run into it and start a spin or homing attack and you will nail Pac-Man. Those hits are what pushes the MU in Sonic's favor IMO, because Pac-Man can't directly contest you unless he has some setup going. You can see this in the set. Sinji is constantly running away from you and trying to set something up because Sonic steamrolls Pac-Man otherwise.
Notice how Sinji couldn't directly contest you in neutral. Most of hits came from when you had to approach awkwardly, which Pac-Man
can set up, but not safely if you know how to punish him for using trampoline. When you start punishing him for it, that pushes the MU to 60:40 because it's harder for Pac-Man to damage you than vice versa.
@1:40 you were probably thinking you might die here. The answer? Hold shield. Pac-Man is holding the bell, so he can't grab you. If he does hydrant, you roll away for free. If he trampolines you, you take 7% and the situation returns to neutral with your stock intact.
@ around 4:30, you saw the punish Pac-Man will usually get on a shielding HA. 5% from Fair, unless he has a Key. HA is worth the risk unless Pac-Man has key stocked. Later in the set you HA his shield when he has key stocked and you still don't get punished hard because Pac-Man doesn't know which way you're going until it's too late to get a hard punish guaranteed.
Also @ ~5:20, once that bell hit your shield, sit there in shield. Either Pac-Man trampolines you for 7% and the situation returns to neutral, or he risks death/a combo if he goes for the grab. If he grabs you, you take ~10% and possibly an edgeguard, which most Pac-Man players will give up and instead opt to charge fruit. Point is you don't die if you stay in shield.
@5:46 you focused on the hydrant and not on Pac-Man, and you almost died for it. This is why I stress ignoring the hydrant. Had you done so, Pac-Man has to land with basically no good landing options.
Game 2 after you lost your second stock is why I think the MU is only 60:40. Approaching Pac-Man is a huge pain, but you can consistently punish him for setting up.
@7:05 Ok, this is something a lot of people do vs PAc-Man and why he gets away with most of his stuff. Pac-Man was offstage, and instead of focusing on KO'ing him, you jumped behind the hydrant in an attempt to use it against him. You ended up getting pushed away by the water, and Pac-Man recovers for free. You essentially gave up an edgeguard situation to attempt launching the hydant. Focus on Pac-Man, not the hydrant.
@7:30 scared of the melon? Sonic's Ftilt should clank it out easily.
@7:40 good stage spike and not letting Pac-Man recover for free.
@8:28 those are the punishes that Sonic can get that you guys aren't getting.
@8:48 that's how you avoid Pac-Man's KO setups. They all lose to jump back up and wait.
@9:01 What did I say? You focused on the hydrant more than Pac-Man and paid for it with you stock. Ignore it.
Earliest death...120% from bad DI...barring incidents like that, you're hitting full rage with each stock. This is why I said "don't get me started on KO'ing Sonic..." You're always one rage F or U smash away from catching up.
@10:00 free HA. Trust me, you can punish these trampolines.
@10:08 hopefully I've beaten "ignore the hydrant" into you at this point, but this right here is the main reason why. Most of Sonic's relevant moves launch the hydrant exactly like that. Pac-Man will know this and stand right where Sinji did, meaning you're wasting your time trying to launch it at him. Furthermore you'll probably eat an orange or key for your efforts.
@10:17 correct me if I'm wrong, but Sinji hasn't been punishing your spins on shield hard, has he? Due to Sonic's mixup potential with the move, Pac-Man can't get that much off of a spin on shield consistently. This is why I'm telling you guys to run into the trampoline and don't be afraid to start spins. You either hit pac-man for 20%+ and put him in a juggle situation, or he has to guess in order to land any % on you.
@10:50 Instead of running through the hydrant and shield grabbing the extremely limited Pac-Man's landing, you try to launch it against him. Stop.
Up until this point, let me reiterate that Sinji isn't trying to fight you directly. That's because Pac-Man can't keep up with Sonic in neutral unless he has some crap going.
@11:37 Watch Pac-Man. Between the sound cues and him charging, you should know which fruit is coming.
@12:31 raw HA on shield yet Sinji didn't get a full punish because he doesn't know where you're going, even though he had the KEy. Sonic can get away with a lot of stuff.
@13:13 the grab beam goes dead before it even fully extends. That was a free Usmash. I'm noticing at this point you are predicting hydrant drops well, but sometimes Sinji dodges your hit and hits you back. Have you considered staying grounded and shield grabbing / spin dashing his landing?
Other than that, stay in his face and do what I said. You're on the right track, just
stop launching the hydrant. All you are doing is leaving yourself open, giving Pac-Man charge time, or refreshing the option for him sooner.
Edit: I'm trying to find decent examples of Brawlman punishing my trampolines, but it's hard because I stopped doing them because I kept getting hit. Still, if you look here:
https://youtu.be/14xkTM0b5HI?t=460 ; also see @16:40 ; 17:12 ; if you watch that set, you'll see that I also can't consistently punish brawlman when he spindashes my shield because of his mixup potential.
You can see that on hit, I
barely have time to shield before he spindashes me. You can definitely catch pac man on whiff.
Oh, let me comment on the other side so I can justify the 60:40. Pac-Man is extremely annoying to approach once he sets up. Once he does, he can somewhat fight Sonic on even ground. His aerials are pretty decent and combo well until later %. His fruits can lead to ridiculous strings for dumb % amounts. However, Sonic can consistently punish him for setting up, and Sonic clearly has an edge until Pac-Man does so. Other than that, Sonic is a bit more favored when it comes to KO'ing. It's substantially easier for him to get grabs, and he can risk throwing out smashes more than Pac-Man. Outside of silly deaths, Sonic will get full rage on his stocks too, so he's always primed for a comeback. Again, I say 60:40 due to the advantage Sonic inherently has until Pac-Man sets up and his slightly better KO potential/safety.