SmashBoards Roster Creation Contest: Round 17: Swampasaur vs. Guybrush20X6

[APC99]

Ridley and Palutena as minuses? That's just... wut...

I read that as "Ridley and Plusle & Minun"

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Ridley and Palutena as minuses? That's just... wut...

I don't want to play as a gimpy, sized down, reproportioned version of Ridley, and Kid Icarus is well represented by Pit alone.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

I don't want to play as a gimpy, sized down, reproportioned version of Ridley, and Kid Icarus is well represented by Pit alone.

That's your choice, but that certainly doesn't make the roster any less likely. Though I don't recall the competition stating that it's solely about realism I don't recall it being solely about what each individual wants either. I like to think of it as a mix of both. Both are fairly likely as is, I'm not necessarily a big fan of Chrom either (mostly because he might throw Ike off), but even then I find rosters lacking without him.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

That's your choice, but that certainly doesn't make the roster any less likely. Though I don't recall the competition stating that it's solely about realism I don't recall it being solely about what each individual wants either. I like to think of it as a mix of both. Both are fairly likely as is, I'm not necessarily a big fan of Chrom either (mostly because he might throw Ike off), but even then I find rosters lacking without him.

I also don't find Ridley particularly likely because of the picture of the day shiboobop and while Kid Icarus is Sakurai's baby, it's only 2/3 games in and Pit can pretty much cover all of them.

 

[Angelglory]

Judging from the reactions to other rosters so far, I'm going to be sent to jail on the charges of a boring roster too.

Oh yeah, I voted Groose, but forgot why so.... I voted Groose.

 

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

I voted for Guybrush.

While I liked Groose's thread; I am not too fond ofDillon, Tingle, and the Duck Hunt Dog. Both lack a possible Namco rep as well as a third FE rep which I think is VERY likely. Guybrush's lack of a Retro rep concerned me as well.

 

[Groose]

Interesting. I thank you guys for all of the feedback. Give me a few days, and I'm going to submit a roster on the Roster Discussion Thread with a few edits; of course, I'll leave this one as is for the rest of the Kompetition.

It's interesting seeing people name Duck Hunt Dog as my saving grace; he's earned himself a spot on any future rosters I make. I originally had Takamaru on there, but I switched him out last minute... glad to see that move paid off!

I've checked the scoreboard and it's a rather close contest, it could go either way, unlike yesterday. Good luck to you in the second half of our match, Guybrush.

*Leaves Thread*

EDIT: Oh, and it's interesting that the term "Elite Four" has caught on. Those four characters are the ones that dominated Rate Their Chances in both chance and want (placing far ahead of fifth place in both regards).

*Leaves Thread For Real*

 

[AEMehr]

I feel like it needs to be reiterated that we are voting on likeliness. I don't think complaining about safeness makes any sense in within those parameters.

Then Guybrush's Roster isn't likely at all because it doesn't have a retro character and only focuses on popular characters.
Sakurai doesn't create rosters with no Retro characters and with only popular characters in mind.

 

[jaytalks]

the word prediction just means a forecast. it does not mean the most "likely." And which characters are "likely" is personal opinion for most characters. One person sees a character more likely to get cut. Another sees a character unlikely to make it over that other character in their franchise. Consensus in itself really doesn't mean too much in the end to the roster we actually get from Sakurai.

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Voted Guybrush. Personally think Lucas/Toon Link/Wolf are more likely (and I like them more) than Dillon/Tingle/Duck Hunt Dog

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Judging from the reactions to other rosters so far, I'm going to be sent to jail on the charges of a boring roster too.

Don't worry, you're facing off against me in the next round, and I have just about the most predictable no-risk roster ever.

 

[Deleted member]

Both:
- Snake, Sonic and Mega Man: I think cuts are likely, even if I think they will be minimal. Of the possible cuts, Snake is by far the most likely so he should be removed. Both rosters need to replace Snake with Pac-Man, who is guarantee to get in due to the Pac-Man, Mii and Little Mac leak.
- Marth and Ike: Both getting in is very likely, but I'm almost confident there will be a third Fire Emblem character. Whenever that is Roy, Chrom or even Lucina remains to be seen.
- No Mii's: Mii's are guarantee to get in and should be defaults on every prediction roster. Even if the leak turns out to be false (which is isn't), Mii's are still very likely to get in.

Groose:
+ Cuts: I think they will be minimal, but still present.
+ DK, Diddy and King K. Rool: Very plausible scenario.
-- Makes cuts that are not happening: Toon Link is the most likely Nintendo veteran to be cut, but Lucas and Wolf will come back. I will be shocked if either are removed.-- Duck Hunt Dog: Not happening. Takamaru, Mach Rider and even Lip have better chances.
- Dillon: I just don't see him getting in. Shulk and Isaac are more likely.
- Samurai Goroh: More likely to get in, but I think F-zero has missed its chance. A shame really, considering that Goroh would be great.

Guybrush:
++ DK, Diddy Kong, Dixie and King K. Rool: I see this as the most likely scenario for Donkey Kong.
- No Cuts: Cuts are likely happening. I would expect one or two for this game, though not for reasons like "not recent". However, this is more likely to happen than cutting Wolf and Lucas; let alone either of them.

So Guybrush wins.

 

[APC99]

Wow, it was really close today. Also, am I allowed to quickly add the transformations to my roster? (The Pokemon Trainer's Pokemon, Zero Suit Samus)? The characters are in there, just not in the picture.

 

[Pacack]

Both:
- Snake, Sonic and Mega Man: I think cuts are likely, even if I think they will be minimal. Of the possible cuts, Snake is by far the most likely so he should be removed. Both rosters need to replace Snake with Pac-Man, who is guarantee to get in due to the Pac-Man, Mii and Little Mac leak.
- Marth and Ike: Both getting in is very likely, but I'm almost confident there will be a third Fire Emblem character. Whenever that is Roy, Chrom or even Lucina remains to be seen.
- No Mii's: Mii's are guarantee to get in and should be defaults on every prediction roster. Even if the leak turns out to be false (which is isn't), Mii's are still very likely to get in.

Groose:
+ Cuts: I think they will be minimal, but still present.
+ DK, Diddy and King K. Rool: Very plausible scenario.
-- Makes cuts that are not happening: Toon Link is the most likely Nintendo veteran to be cut, but Lucas and Wolf will come back. I will be shocked if either are removed.-- Duck Hunt Dog: Not happening. Takamaru, Mach Rider and even Lip have better chances.
- Dillon: I just don't see him getting in. Shulk and Isaac are more likely.
- Samurai Goroh: More likely to get in, but I think F-zero has missed its chance. A shame really, considering that Goroh would be great.

Guybrush:
++ DK, Diddy Kong, Dixie and King K. Rool: I see this as the most likely scenario for Donkey Kong.
- No Cuts: Cuts are likely happening. I would expect one or two for this game, though not for reasons like "not recent". However, this is more likely to happen than cutting Wolf and Lucas; let alone either of them.

So Guybrush wins.

I want to agree with you, but I don't think the leak is all that reliable, personally.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

the word prediction just means a forecast. it does not mean the most "likely." And which characters are "likely" is personal opinion for most characters. One person sees a character more likely to get cut. Another sees a character unlikely to make it over that other character in their franchise. Consensus in itself really doesn't mean too much in the end to the roster we actually get from Sakurai.

I would rather do a want roster. Are you going to have a tournament for that? Or at least one that takes want into account?"

We will. Just not now.

 

[jaytalks]

Predictions sometimes mean making seemingly unlikely choices. Mr. Game and Watch, R.O.B. and Wii Fit Trainer are proof of that. We don't know all of Sakurai's methods. Just because there is a consensus of likely characters among the community does not mean they are the most likely character. Popular and significant characters have repeatedly been left off the last two iterations.
The most important quality of a prediction roster is that it is right in the end when the roster is revealed, not that the community agrees that the characters on it are most likely.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Wow, it was really close today. Also, am I allowed to quickly add the transformations to my roster? (The Pokemon Trainer's Pokemon, Zero Suit Samus)? The characters are in there, just not in the picture.

Just say that they are there.

No pic required.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Swampasaur, can you explain the criteria on which we are judging these rosters?

 

[Starbound]

You may use any reasoning of your choice to decide which you prefer, from characters to layout

You make your own criteria, which can consist of anything.

 

[Groose]

Well, that was a strong voting surge if I ever saw one. Good fight, Guybrush. I concede defeat. I can also announce that I'll be backing you next round.​

​

Looking at this... defeated first round? It... makes me.... it makes me...​

​

​

​

​

 

[Starbound]

uh groose, the round's not over for another 4 hours

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

You make your own criteria, which can consist of anything.

That contradicts what Swampasaur said on the first page.

 

[Groose]

​

This... this just made my day! *Sniff* So beautiful.​

​

uh groose, the round's not over for another 4 hours

I'm aware of that. But I consider myself practical. There is no way I can recover from a seven vote deficit.

 

[Starbound]

That contradicts what Swampasaur said on the first page.

I quoted what Swampasaur said in the first post.

You make a prediction roster. People pick the one they like the most. Rinse and repeat.

 

[APC99]

This... this just made my day! *Sniff* So beautiful.​

​

I'm aware of that. But I consider myself practical. There is no way I can recover from a seven vote deficit.

Aw, cheer up, you're going against moneyfrenzy in the losing round I believe... First them, then the world!

Just don't come near my roster or else I start whooping a$$ everywhere.

 

[Groose]

Aw, cheer up, you're going against moneyfrenzy in the losing round I believe... First them, then the world!

Aww, no. I'm not making crying gifs because I lost. I'm just making them Ariand/AEM's post today was a complete work of brilliance.

Just don't come near my roster or else I start whooping a$$ everywhere.

Can't wait until I thrash you somewhere along the line in the Loser's Bracket.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

If we're just voting for what we like, then forget about realism.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

If we're just voting for what we like, then forget about realism.

They are voting for what they think will happen.

It's just that people see "Safe" rosters as something Sakurai won't do. He always has some odd choices in there, so people are trying to think like that as well.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

I quoted what Swampasaur said in the first post.

You make a prediction roster. People pick the one they like the most. Rinse and repeat.

They are voting for what they think will happen.

It's just that people see "Safe" rosters as something Sakurai won't do. He always has some odd choices in there, so people are trying to think like that as well.

Do you see how this is confusing?

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Do you see how this is confusing?

"Like" as in what they think is most likely.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

"Like" as in what they think is most likely.

That works for me. I hope people understand that.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

That works for me. I hope people understand that.

They seem to so far.

 

[Starbound]

Round ends in just under half an hour!

 

[Swamp Sensei]

And the winner is!

Guybrush20X6!

He moves on the next round. The final score was....

Guybrush:24
Groose: 16

Time for Round three!

Angelglory vs Wariofan1!

Here's Angelglory's roster!

And here is Wariofan1's!

Have at them folks!

Vote here!

http://www.yourfreepoll.com/rwklfrtisp.html

 

[Starbound]

Voted for Angelglory because I'd prefer to see Snake instead of Pac-Man and I like the addition of Mach Rider.

 

[jaytalks]

angelglory has no cuts as far as I can tell, so he gets -3 for that due to the cutting of Snake, Wolf, and TL by Wariofan1.The two retros in Angelglory is a good choice. I'm really warming up to Mach Rider. I've been thinking we will get two retros, I just have problems including two in mine. I think right now they are tied in points for me so I'll have to think about it. Edit: I forgot to actually add the cuts so it seems pretty clear.

Angelglory
+1 for chrom
+ 1 for ridley
+ 1 for Mewtwo
+ 1 for Palutena
+ 1 for Takamaru
+ 2 Mach Rider
+ 1 Dillon
+ 1 Shulk
+ 1 Little Mac
- 3 for cuts =
7

Wariofan1
+1 for Mii
+ 1 for Ridley
+ 1 for Chrom
+ 1 for Palutena
+ 1 for Little Mac
+ 1 K Rool
+ 1 Takamaru
+ 1 for Mewtwo
+ 1 for Pac-Man
+ 3 for cuts =
12 Wario fan

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Both rosters have good newcomers and nice organization.

Angelglory takes more risks and overall, I think it makes the roster feel more natural and likely. Wariofan1's roster feels a bit too safe. Angelglory gets the advantage there.

Wariofan1 also cut Toon Link and Snake. Toon Link I can see happening, but I honestly can't see Snake getting cut.

I went for Angelglory in the end. His roster feels more natural.

 

[Xenigma]

Angelglory
48 characters with no random space: personally I'd add one more character and a random space, but it's not a serious fault. I agree with no cuts, so that's a plus. My one big gripe with newcomers is two retros with Takamaru and Mach Rider. One or the other would be plausible, but not both. The remainder is a pretty good mix, including Dillon as something of a surprise character, though most of the choices are very safe. Yet another roster with Shulk over Isaac, but at least you picked one or the other. Also, props for making your own roster, though names would have been nice, since I had to hunt down your post to confirm the bottom-right was Shulk. Overall: not bad!

Wariofan1
45 and a random, pretty safe size. Three cuts with Toon Link, Wolf, and Snake, which I think is generally unfortunate but reasonable. Personally I think adding Chrom to bring FE to three, making it equal with Zelda and greater than Star Fox, looks a bit sloppy and very unlikely. FE's doing well, but not that well. As for your newcomers, there are basically zero risks here: you've got the rumored trio, you've got the big four from here, you've got Chrom as the presumptive new FE character, and you've got Takamaru as the most expected newcomer here. Ironically it makes the roster somewhat unlikely because it basically assumes everything will go exactly as we expect, which will almost certainly not be the case. Overall: it's solid, but it also shows no creativity.

Verdict - Angelglory
I've got my gripes with Angel's roster, but it at the very least has some unique flavor and takes some risks, while Wario's is bland and assumes the roster will perfectly follow the wishes of the Smashboard community. Sorry, but I just don't buy that.

 

[FalKoopa]

Round 3....

ANGELGLORY
+ No cuts
+ Retros
+ Manages to stay varied

WARIOFAN1
-/+ A few cuts, but all seem plausible
- Lacks in variety

I choose AngelGlory.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Btw guys, I appreciate constructive criticism a lot, already glad to see it. Don't be afraid to give criticism is what I say.