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Smash Ultimate Leak Discussion Thread

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DaybreakHorizon

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I was always wary of going all-in on the music theory, and I might aswell say the blog theory aswell, as I really don't believe Sakurai would show his hand in such an obvious manner, these things that come directly from the Smash team always has a chance to change and throw us off, as they've done many times for past games aswell.

It's obviously held true until now, longer than I expected it to, but I feel like this is the end of it, I don't doubt Vergeben, and in the 1% chance that he's wrong a Pokémon newcomer is still very likely. It's not a hard disproval of the theory just yet, but it's just a matter of time imo.

It's only good for speculation if we can get rid of some of these theories that only limit us too, hopefully the box theory follows after the next presentation.
This. At this point we've established that people are just going to believe whatever they want to believe regardless of facts or evidence, so why hide behind a theory?

Here's an answer: Just don't.
 
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Enchess

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Aww thank you so much!

And I don't think music theory in itself is stupid, I just don't buy it personally, and i'm just really not looking forward to bringing up Incineroar only for someone to say "Incineroar's not in, music theory disconfirmed him". Shutting down speculation was dumb with the box and it would be dumb here too.

Seriously though, thank you I spend a lot of time on my avatars!
Yeah, as much as the box theory makes a ton of sense to me, I don't like how people just "Nope, everything is wrong but this"'d it.

But that's also why I argue for box and music theory. Because I dislike speculation being shut down because it doesn't perfectly line up with Verg (thats not directed at you btw). Verg can be wrong even if his sources are great. It's happened before.
 

Shroob

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So now the question boils down to a question that can't be answered at this moment in time:



"How likely is a Direct next week?"


I'd say it's not going to happen, but I've always subscribed to the thought process of "A Smash Direct every other month until release"


That, and both June and August's were relatively early in the month.



IF there is one next month, I feel like we'd hear about it either this weekend or very early next week, giving us a few days notice like they did with EVO's.
 

Noipoi

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What can I say? If i'm gonna be wasting my time talking about video games on the internet, why not improve my art while doing it?
 

Enchess

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I find it a little funny that people think the music theory limits speculation. I understand why. It eliminates entire series from speculation if you go all in on it. But as someone who wants more Nintendo IPs to be repped instead of just more characters from the ones we have, I think it actually encourages people to look beyond the standard Pokemon/Zelda/Mario newcomers that dominate speculation every cycle. Just my two cents.
 

Michael the Spikester

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I think if anything at this point we're gonna probably get a double reveal similar to Lucina and Robin. I'm personally thinking it'll be both Incineroar and Ken.

We might even get something this week. If were right Steve may get revealed at Minecon.
 

Shroob

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I think if anything at this point we're gonna probably get a double reveal similar to Lucina and Robin. I'm personally thinking it'll be both Incineroar and Ken.

We might even get something this week. If were right Steve may get revealed at Minecon.
Ya see, I just can't imagine they'd do it like this.


Minecon's big, yeah, but Nintendo's never revealed a character at a convention outside of E3.


I 'could' see them announce a Direct(Though that would basically soft confirm Steve), but I don't see them flat out revealing Steve then.
 

NonSpecificGuy

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It's also worth noting that if Music theory holds any water at all then Inceneroar will be revealed within the time period of now till Tuesday.

If we're at all expecting a Robin style reveal then this is the time to do it. Specifically next Monday. It's been a while but I'm almost certain that July 14th, 2014 was a Monday. Next Monday would be an absolutely perfect time to reveal a character, specifically Inceneroar. Why? First off, that day is October the 1st which means the update of a new character for that month would be Inceneroar, which would mean us waiting till November for the Final news would be justified. Secondly, well, all this ****. If Vergeben is right and Music Theory is right then that tells me Monday is the only day. One can be wrong but both of them have stood up flawlessly until today. Third, it is a Monday. The only other character to ever have been revealed like this happened on a Monday. Patterns or not, maybe that's the plan. Lastly, Inceneroar. If there's one character that deserves a spotlight given to him, specifically, as a stand alone announcement it's him. As a Pokemon he's got built in hype, he doesn't have to line up with an announcement since Pokemon usually does their own directs, he's enough of a deep cut Smash Fan choice a la Robin to get us excited, he comes quite a bit after the planned Direct date to be spaced out well enough, and he's the only character to not be either a coinciding announcement like Isabelle or a legacy character like Simon, K. Rool, and Ridley. He sits snuggly between those two sides.

I dunno. Obviously that's just my theory. However, in my humble opinion if we're getting any sort of out of nowhere Robin style announcement, this is it. I'm pretty confident in this too, especially considering the legitimacy shown from both sides of this fence.

That opens up a whole nother can of worms for the Final Smash Direct. If we expect at least two unique newcomers then we could probably expect the Square rep, maybe Geno fr, and another character, hopefully Isaac, I'm still not sold on Steve being in, especially considering the Wii U version of that game didn't even release until December of 2015, but if he is in at all then he could be the final character. Fitting. The last character will likely be the one that tears the fanbase apart.
 
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Michael the Spikester

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Ya see, I just can't imagine they'd do it like this.


Minecon's big, yeah, but Nintendo's never revealed a character at a convention outside of E3.


I 'could' see them announce a Direct(Though that would basically soft confirm Steve), but I don't see them flat out revealing Steve then.
Eh still close enough to my ideal prediction in that case.

Minecon: Final Smash Direct revealed
October: Triple reveal of Incineroar (69), Steve(70) and Ken(60e)
November: Final Smash Direct revealing Elma(71), Geno(72), Dixie Kong(36e), Shadow(38e) and Medusa(54e) as the final characters

or

Minecon: Final Smash Direct revealed
October: Lucina/Robin style reveal with Incineroar(69) and Ken(60e)
November: Final Smash Direct revealing Steve(70), Elma(71), Geno(72), Dixie Kong(36e), Shadow(38e) and Medusa(54e) as the final characters
 
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Chumpodile

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at first I hated the idea of steve in smash but since then I've done a complete 180 and now I'm really excited about the possibility of him in smash
 

Enchess

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I still hate the idea of Steve in Smash, but I don't think it's happening anyway so whatever.

Steve wouldn't ruin the roster for me though. There are two scenarios that make me disappointed with our newcomers:
1) only one new Nintendo IP repped (Splatoon)
2) more new 3rd party IPs repped than Nintendo IPs repped in base roster.
I value the Nintendo theme and those two things kill that for me. If Steve is in without breaking one of them, I'll hate him but still not be disappointed overall.
 

Shroob

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I still hate the idea of Steve in Smash, but I don't think it's happening anyway so whatever.

Steve wouldn't ruin the roster for me though. There are two scenarios that make me disappointed with our newcomers:
1) only one new Nintendo IP repped (Splatoon)
2) more new 3rd party IPs repped than Nintendo IPs repped in base roster.
I value the Nintendo theme and those two things kill that for me. If Steve is in without breaking one of them, I'll hate him but still not be disappointed overall.
The issue I have is there just aren't a lot of new Nintendo IPs to add, from 64 to now, we've added most of the big ones.


Besides Rhythm Heaven and Golden Sun, two that I'm extremely iffy on, the only one I thought was a lock, ARMS, is 'too new'.


And then you got smaller, niche series like Advanced Wars which, have no real shot, being brutally honest.
 

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I don't get why people are bringing up that a Smash Direct would be announced at Minecon, they'd practically spoil the contents of it by announcing it there, and they don't need to specifically target Minecraft fans in that way anyways, if Steve is in the news will spread like wildfire instantly regardless. The EVO announcement was different as that was at a Smash tournament, it was an extremely relevant place to announce it, even if Steve is in Minecon isn't really the place to do that, it'd be like if the 8.8.18 Direct was announced at some Konami conference.
 
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Shroob

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I don't get why people are bringing up that a Smash Direct would be announced at Minecon, they'd practically spoil the contents of it by announcing it there, and they don't need to specifically target Minecraft fans in that way anyways, if Steve is in the news will spread like wildfire instantly regardless. The EVO announcement was different as that was at a Smash tournament, it was an extremely relevant place to announce it, even if Steve is in Minecon isn't really the place to do such a thing.
For me, I'm just trying to spitball when/if a Smash Direct could be announced next month, if at all.


The last two were super early in the month, which made sense due to the contents they had in them and the spacing out on the blog.



If we get a Direct next month, I feel like it'd come earlier than later, but that's just wishful thinking.
 

MasterOfKnees

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For me, I'm just trying to spitball when/if a Smash Direct could be announced next month, if at all.


The last two were super early in the month, which made sense due to the contents they had in them and the spacing out on the blog.



If we get a Direct next month, I feel like it'd come earlier than later, but that's just wishful thinking.
I agree with that, every presentation we've gotten has at least been intended to be early on in the month, so although it's not a huge sample size I think we'll see something early next month. I just don't see why it'd happen at Minecon, it could even happen while that conference is going on just with Nintendo announcing it seperately from the event, we don't really need an event for a trailer or Direct to be announced.
 
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Enchess

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The issue I have is there just aren't a lot of new Nintendo IPs to add, from 64 to now, we've added most of the big ones.


Besides Rhythm Heaven and Golden Sun, two that I'm extremely iffy on, the only one I thought was a lock, ARMS, is 'too new'.


And then you got smaller, niche series like Advanced Wars which, have no real shot, being brutally honest.
I'm not saying Advance Wars or Sin and Punishment or one of a dozen or more other Nintendo IP have a good chance. I'm saying I'd rather them over 3rd parties or more from already repped IPs. Smash also loses something if none of them get in. It's ok not to care about that loss, but some of us do.

I don't have another place to dream of Golden Sun, Sin & Punishment, Ouendan, Star Tropics, etc getting a shot in something big like this. There's always a chance Banjo or Crash could show up in other crossovers. I'm not even rooting for Neku (from my favorite game of all time) because he already got to be in KH and may well show up in other crossovers in future. I want the guys that this is their only chance.
 

dezeray112

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Whilst I understand Vergeben's frustration and (even though he should refrain from using that phrase in future) he did apologise for his outburst, some specific GameFAQs users are also at fault as well for harassing him so much.
 
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Shroob

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Untitled.png



What I want to know is, does anyone remember when the 8.8's "NEW" disappeared? I remember that it was about several days before the Direct was announced, and next week we'll be exactly 1 month since Isabelle's planned reveal date.
 

Deoxys911

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If we get a Direct announcement at ****ing Minecon I'll change my signature and replace "mr. leakerman" with "blockhead." I'll also up the font so it's visible.
I'll change my avatar to a Minecraft Deoxys, as well. I highly doubt anything pertaining to a Direct or Smash will be announced (with the sole exception being if there's some sort of "Minecraft Direct" announced, but even then the odds of seeing Smash news in such a presentation that would be focused on a new game or update would be pretty low).
I was always wary of going all-in on the music theory, and I might aswell say the blog theory aswell, as I really don't believe Sakurai would show his hand in such an obvious manner, these things that come directly from the Smash team always has a chance to change and throw us off, as they've done many times for past games aswell.

It's obviously held true until now, longer than I expected it to, but I feel like this is the end of it, I don't doubt Vergeben, and in the 1% chance that he's wrong a Pokémon newcomer is still very likely. It's not a hard disproval of the theory just yet, but it's just a matter of time imo.
What I just can't understand is why Sakurai and the team behind the blog would go to the trouble of sticking to a pattern this long only to suddenly decide, "Ah, forget it." That's just odd.
Lastly, Inceneroar. If there's one character that deserves a spotlight given to him, specifically, as a stand alone announcement it's him. As a Pokemon he's got built in hype, he doesn't have to line up with an announcement since Pokemon usually does their own directs, he's enough of a deep cut Smash Fan choice a la Robin to get us excited, he comes quite a bit after the planned Direct date to be spaced out well enough, and he's the only character to not be either a coinciding announcement like Isabelle or a legacy character like Simon, K. Rool, and Ridley. He sits snuggly between those two sides.
I can definitely agree that they will undoubtedly excite a lot of people for the mere fact that they're a Pokémon, but was Incineroar ever really a Pokémon that any significant number of people supported before word got out of Vergeben's source claiming that they were playable? I'm honestly unaware of such support, personally, but please feel free to set the record straight if I simply missed it.
 
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Enchess

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View attachment 166722


What I want to know is, does anyone remember when the 8.8's "NEW" disappeared? I remember that it was about several days before the Direct was announced, and next week we'll be exactly 1 month since Isabelle's planned reveal date.
I think it's scheduled to disappear after a month, not just before a reveal. Could be wrong though
 

Shroob

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I'll change my avatar to a Minecraft Deoxys, as well. I highly doubt anything pertaining to a Direct or Smash will be announced (with the sole exception being if there's some sort of "Minecraft Direct" announced, but even then the odds of seeing Smash news in such a presentation that would be focused on a new game or update would be pretty low).

What I just can't understand is why Sakurai and the team behind the blog would go to the trouble of sticking to a pattern this long only to suddenly decide, "Ah, forget it." That's just odd.
[QUOTE="NonSpecificGuy, post: 22481882, member: 237096"Lastly, Inceneroar. If there's one character that deserves a spotlight given to him, specifically, as a stand alone announcement it's him. As a Pokemon he's got built in hype, he doesn't have to line up with an announcement since Pokemon usually does their own directs, he's enough of a deep cut Smash Fan choice a la Robin to get us excited, he comes quite a bit after the planned Direct date to be spaced out well enough, and he's the only character to not be either a coinciding announcement like Isabelle or a legacy character like Simon, K. Rool, and Ridley. He sits snuggly between those two sides. I can definitely agree that they will undoubtedly excite a lot of people for the mere fact that they're a Pokémon, but was Incineroar ever really a Pokémon that any significant number of people supported before word got out of Vergeben's source claiming that they were playable? I'm honestly unaware of such support, personally, but please feel free to set the record straight if I simply missed it.
Incineroar never had much of a big fanbase no.


But the Pokemon Company is more or less conditioning people that watch the anime to like it.


It was already the antagonist in a movie, and Ash is going to be getting one in probably two month's time, which means it'll probably become his team's ace.
 
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So, I guess it's time to finally give you guys my reasons for why I don't think Steve is in the base game, despite the "leaks". Yeah, it's time based more than anything else but there's more to it than just that.

The easiest and most telling part of him not coming in, the release date. Minecraft: Wii U Edition was the first instance of Minecraft on a Nintendo console. It was announced on December 7th, 2015 and released on December 17th 2015. Now you might say this could be seen as a boon to the character because this was the time where the game was probably in the limelight. However, we don't really know what DAY the project plan for Ultimate was finalized. Closer to the beginning of the month? Right at the end? We don't know but it's safe to say that the plan was at least being worked out the month prior at the least. Which means Minecraft missed its chance in the planning stage.

What else? Well, same thing. Minecraft missed the Ballot phase. While everyone was hyping up Banjo, Isaac, K. Rool, Ridley, Shantae, Bomberman, you name it, Minecraft was absent from Nintendo entirely. Sure, there might've been the kids who voted for Steve en masse but even then would Sakurai have taken those requests seriously? The game wasn't even on a Nintendo console at the time of the Ballot ending and the Project Plan starting. Oh, but appearing on a Nintendo console is a fan made rule I hear you say. Well no, it's not. Even Sakurai admitted to it being a part of why he felt comfortable with choosing Cloud.
Sakurai: Nintendo Dream Interview said:
I might have had misgivings if Cloud had never appeared on a Nintendo console in any form, though.
https://sourcegaming.info/2016/02/23/nintendo-dream-interview-with-sakurai-part-2/

Thanks, PushDustIn PushDustIn .

So, if Steve wasn't on a Nintendo Console during the timing of the project plan it's likely he wasn't considered.

Lastly, the popularity of Minecraft in Japan is apparently not as big of a deal as here. From one of the interviews with Miyamoto and Takahashi by Kotaku:
Talahashi on Minecraft Popularity said:
What's interesting is that, in Japan, Minecraft is not popular in the way it is in the U.S. and Europe, so we've also thought that, if we were able to do a partnership like that, it might bring opportunity to help make Minecraft more popular in Japan.
https://sourcegaming.info/2016/02/23/nintendo-dream-interview-with-sakurai-part-2/

It's highly unlikely that the Wii U release made the game any more popular over there, especially considering the Wii U being, well, the Wii U. The 3DS Edition? We can talk about that, but that version wasn't released till this time LAST YEAR. The Switch Edition? Well that didn't released till earlier this year. The only saving grace to this is probably the Playstation Vita Edition which released in 2014. Vita was all the rage then so I could see it gaining traction from that but I have no proof.

I don't think a character from Minecraft is in the books for the base roster guys. Nothing lines up. Leakers can leak all they want and, yeah, maybe we get a Steve Assist Trophy but as a character, I think we are just not getting it. MAYBE, DLC. Maybe.
 

Shroob

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I think it's scheduled to disappear after a month, not just before a reveal. Could be wrong though
This is wrong.

By that logic, it would have gone away September 8th when the Direct was originally scheduled for the 6th.


I know for a fact that it was gone the last few days of August, which drove people crazy, and then the Direct got announced.
 

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So, I guess it's time to finally give you guys my reasons for why I don't think Steve is in the base game, despite the "leaks". Yeah, it's time based more than anything else but there's more to it than just that.

The easiest and most telling part of him not coming in, the release date. Minecraft: Wii U Edition was the first instance of Minecraft on a Nintendo console. It was announced on December 7th, 2015 and released on December 17th 2015. Now you might say this could be seen as a boon to the character because this was the time where the game was probably in the limelight. However, we don't really know what DAY the project plan for Ultimate was finalized. Closer to the beginning of the month? Right at the end? We don't know but it's safe to say that the plan was at least being worked out the month prior at the least. Which means Minecraft missed its chance in the planning stage.

What else? Well, same thing. Minecraft missed the Ballot phase. While everyone was hyping up Banjo, Isaac, K. Rool, Ridley, Shantae, Bomberman, you name it, Minecraft was absent from Nintendo entirely. Sure, there might've been the kids who voted for Steve en masse but even then would Sakurai have taken those requests seriously? The game wasn't even on a Nintendo console at the time of the Ballot ending and the Project Plan starting. Oh, but appearing on a Nintendo console is a fan made rule I hear you say. Well no, it's not. Even Sakurai admitted to it being a part of why he felt comfortable with choosing Cloud.

https://sourcegaming.info/2016/02/23/nintendo-dream-interview-with-sakurai-part-2/

Thanks, PushDustIn PushDustIn .

So, if Steve wasn't on a Nintendo Console during the timing of the project plan it's likely he wasn't considered.

Lastly, the popularity of Minecraft in Japan is apparently not as big of a deal as here. From one of the interviews with Miyamoto and Takahashi by Kotaku:


https://sourcegaming.info/2016/02/23/nintendo-dream-interview-with-sakurai-part-2/

It's highly unlikely that the Wii U release made the game any more popular over there, especially considering the Wii U being, well, the Wii U. The 3DS Edition? We can talk about that, but that version wasn't released till this time LAST YEAR. The Switch Edition? Well that didn't released till earlier this year. The only saving grace to this is probably the Playstation Vita Edition which released in 2014. Vita was all the rage then so I could see it gaining traction from that but I have no proof.

I don't think a character from Minecraft is in the books for the base roster guys. Nothing lines up. Leakers can leak all they want and, yeah, maybe we get a Steve Assist Trophy but as a character, I think we are just not getting it. MAYBE, DLC. Maybe.
Minecraft Vita was fairly popular. It was the first title published by Sony to sell over a million units in Japan since Gran Turismo 4 in 2004. For such a major Japanese publisher to have a western indie game owned by a competitor be their best selling title in years is astounding.
http://www.pushsquare.com/news/2016...irst_japanese_million_seller_in_over_a_decade
 
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Shroob

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Alright.


Using the Wayback Machine, the "NEW" disappeared on August 23rd, only 2 weeks after the Direct.

Isabelle's has been up for roughly the same time, and next week will be a month since she was originally intended to be shown off.
 
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Guybrush20X6

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I remember when we used Brawl logic, this Gen 3 music would have had us wildly speculating about Blaziken or Sceptile or Gardevoir or Kelceon instead of writing off the entire Pokemon franchise...

That was fun.
 

Shroob

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So yeah.


8.8.'s "NEW" disappeared 15 days after it appeared on the 23rd, skipped a week, and a Direct was confirmed to air on the 6th. Though, due to the earthquake, it took another week due to the delay and moved to the 13th.

Isabelle's "NEW" has been up for 13 days as of today, though it gets awkward when she was supposed go to live the week before.



I'm not even saying a Direct will happen at all in October, but it would line up with how it was handled last time.



To note, June's Ridley/Daisy/Inkling didn't have "NEW" for its characters at all.



If Isabelle's "NEW" disappears this week or next, a Direct announcement could very well be imminent.
 
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Imadethistoseealeak

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I don't know if anyone's brought this up yet regarding the music theory and Incineroar being released this week lining up with it - but if this was the case then there would be no point in moving the Animal Crossing music update around, which we know they switched with the Pikmin update.

Either music theory is dead or we aren't getting a new Pokemon. I've been a supporter of a Pokemon newcomer since E3, so I'm going to go a head and say music theory is dead. It's crazy - it totally could have been a coincidence, but man what a coincidence it was. Sakurai defintely was lining up songs from series of the newcomers so I wonder if we will just get 2 Pokemon songs and potentially 2 Mario/Zelda/Kirby etc. At least it reopens a lot of possibilities!
 

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I don't know if anyone's brought this up yet regarding the music theory and Incineroar being released this week lining up with it - but if this was the case then there would be no point in moving the Animal Crossing music update around, which we know they switched with the Pikmin update.

Either music theory is dead or we aren't getting a new Pokemon. I've been a supporter of a Pokemon newcomer since E3, so I'm going to go a head and say music theory is dead. It's crazy - it totally could have been a coincidence, but man what a coincidence it was. Sakurai defintely was lining up songs from series of the newcomers so I wonder if we will just get 2 Pokemon songs and potentially 2 Mario/Zelda/Kirby etc. At least it reopens a lot of possibilities!
Yeah, how many series are left to get music? Especially when we consider FF ain't getting one

We've got about 10 weeks to go in any case.
 

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Hey box theorists, check this out [original source here]. Sakurai said we should expected announcements to slow down, making me think we either won't have an October Direct (saving everything for a later November Direct?) or we really... aren't getting many new characters. He especially mentions they went overboard and might've been mistaken in revealing so many characters upfront.
 

ThatOneAnon

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Hey box theorists, check this out [original source here]. Sakurai said we should expected announcements to slow down, making me think we either won't have an October Direct (saving everything for a later November Direct?) or we really... aren't getting many new characters. He especially mentions they went overboard and might've been mistaken in revealing so many characters upfront.
They may as well just announce everyone else now if that’s the case.
 

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Hey box theorists, check this out [original source here]. Sakurai said we should expected announcements to slow down, making me think we either won't have an October Direct (saving everything for a later November Direct?) or we really... aren't getting many new characters. He especially mentions they went overboard and might've been mistaken in revealing so many characters upfront.
Yup. Time to just expect Ken/Incineroar and the Square-Enix Characters guys. Lower your expectations, especially if the man himself thinks he went too fast
 

Zippo

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He even admitted that they went trigger-happy.....

Yikes.
 
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zeldasmash

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Yup. Time to just expect Ken/Incineroar and the Square-Enix Characters guys. Lower your expectations, especially if the man himself thinks he went too fast
I'd still expect at least Shadow and Skull Kid plus Ken/Incineroar and a Square Enix character. Moreso Shadow then Skull Kid.
 
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Imadethistoseealeak

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Hey box theorists, check this out [original source here]. Sakurai said we should expected announcements to slow down, making me think we either won't have an October Direct (saving everything for a later November Direct?) or we really... aren't getting many new characters. He especially mentions they went overboard and might've been mistaken in revealing so many characters upfront.
Well so much for being optimistic that music theory was wrong. I'm pretty much sold on just Ken, Incineroar and either Square base rep or Square first day dlc.

This really goes against what most people say against box theory whether it's "Why would they slow down closer to release?" or "Last direct gave us 5 characters I can't see the next giving us only 2". I'd be interested in seeing Source Gamings translation. Number of reveals might just be reffering to directs correct? As in there is only one more direct, but it could have 5 new characters? Need to wait and see what the full translation says.

Edit: This translation mentions the "pace" of new character reveals not the number. I'm not sure if trigger happy makes more sense for pace or number, but yeah based on this short translation it could mean 4-5 newcomers in one direct is still a possibility. Yay word connotations!
 
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Zippo

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Some people here are in for a rude awakening this morning.
 
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iruchii

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They may as well just announce everyone else now if that’s the case.
There's a chance of that happening, sure, but he did say
遠慮して生きていきます
which basically means they hold back/moderate the announcements so I wouldn't hold my hopes so high.

Either way, I don't buy the box theory. I just think this means they're saving everything for November. Or maybe Sakurai is just being classic Sakurai and baiting us.
 
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